Flexible dose-response models for Japanese atomic bomb survivor data: Bayesian estimation and prediction of cancer risk

Radiation and Environmental Biophysics

Volumn 43, Issue 4, 2004, Pages 233-245

  Bennett, James ^a   Little, Mark P ^a   Richardson, Sylvia ^a  

^a IMPERIAL COLLEGE LONDON   (United Kingdom)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

DATA ACQUISITION; DOSIMETRY; MATHEMATICAL MODELS; MONTE CARLO METHODS; PIECEWISE LINEAR TECHNIQUES; RADIATION; RANDOM ERRORS; TUMORS;

ATOMIC BOMBS; CANCER RISKS; DOSE-RESPONSE MODELS; LEUKAEMIA;

HEALTH RISKS;

ARTICLE; ATOMIC BOMB SURVIVOR; BAYES THEOREM; CANCER INCIDENCE; CANCER RISK; CONFIDENCE INTERVAL; DOSIMETRY; ERROR; LEUKEMIA; LIFESPAN; LINEAR SYSTEM; MONTE CARLO METHOD; POPULATION; PREDICTION; PROBABILITY; SOLID TUMOR; UNITED KINGDOM;

ALGORITHMS; BAYES THEOREM; BODY BURDEN; COMPUTER SIMULATION; DOSE-RESPONSE RELATIONSHIP, RADIATION; GAMMA RAYS; GREAT BRITAIN; HUMANS; INCIDENCE; JAPAN; MODELS, BIOLOGICAL; MODELS, STATISTICAL; NEOPLASMS, RADIATION-INDUCED; NUCLEAR WARFARE; ORGAN SPECIFICITY; RADIATION DOSAGE; RADIATION MONITORING; RADIOMETRY; RELATIVE BIOLOGICAL EFFECTIVENESS; REPRODUCIBILITY OF RESULTS; RISK ASSESSMENT; RISK FACTORS; SENSITIVITY AND SPECIFICITY; SURVIVAL ANALYSIS; SURVIVORS;

EID: 4143137564     PISSN: 0301634X     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1007/s00411-004-0258-3     Document Type: Article

References (51)

1. National Research Council (1990) Committee on the Biological Effects of Ionizing Radiations. Health effects of exposure to low levels of ionizing radiation (BEIR V). National Academy Press, Washington DC
2. ICRP (1991) 1990 Recommendations of the International Commission on Radiological Protection. Annals of the ICRP 21 (1-3). Pergamon, Oxford
3. UNSCEAR (2000) Sources and effects of ionizing radiation. UNSCEAR 2000 Report to the General Assembly, with scientific annexes. Volume II: Effects. United Nations, New York
4. Thomas D, Stram D, Dwyer J (1993) Exposure measurement error: influence on exposure-disease relationships and methods of correction. Annu Rev Public Health 14:69-93
5. Jablon S (1971) Atomic bomb radiation dose estimation at ABCC. ABCC Technical Report TR 23-71. Atomic Bomb Casualty Commission, Hiroshima
6. Gilbert ES (1984) Some effects of random dose measurement errors on analyses of atomic bomb survivor data. Radiat Res 98:591-605
7. Pierce DA, Stram DO, Vaeth M (1990) Allowing for random errors in radiation dose estimates for the atomic bomb survivor data. Radiat Res 123:275-284
8. Pierce DA, Vaeth M (1991) The shape of the cancer mortality dose-response curve for the A-bomb survivors. Radiat Res 126:36-42
9. Pierce DA, Stram DO, Vaeth M, Schafer DW (1992) The errors-in-variables problem: considerations provided by radiation dose-response analyses of the A-bomb survivor data. J Am Stat Assoc 87:351-359
10. Little MP, Muirhead CR (1996) Evidence for curvilinearity in the cancer incidence dose-response in the Japanese atomic bomb survivors. Int J Radiat Biol 70:83-94
11. Little MP, Muirhead CR (1997) Curvilinearity in the dose-response curve for cancer in Japanese atomic bomb survivors. Environ Health Perspect 105 [Suppl 6]:1505-1509
12. Little MP, Muirhead CR (1998) Curvature in the cancer mortality dose response in Japanese atomic bomb survivors: absence of evidence of threshold. Int J Radiat Biol 74:471-480
13. Little MP, Muirhead CR (2000) Derivation of low-dose extrapolation factors from analysis of curvature in the cancer incidence dose response in Japanese atomic bomb survivors. Int J Radiat Biol 76:939-953
14. Little MP, Muirhead CR (2004) Absence of evidence for threshold departures from linear-quadratic curvature in the Japanese A-bomb cancer incidence and mortality data. Int J Low Radiat 1:242-255
15. Little MP (2004) Threshold and other departures from linear-quadratic curvature in the non-cancer mortality dose-response curve in the Japanese atomic bomb survivors. Radiat Environ Biophys 43:67-75
16. Carroll RJ, Ruppert D, Stefanski LA (1995) Measurement error in nonlinear models. Chapman and Hall, London
17. Richardson S, Gilks WR (1993) Conditional independence models for epidemiological studies with covariate measurement error. Stat Med 12:1703-1722
18. Richardson S, Gilks WR (1993) A Bayesian approach to measurement error problems in epidemiology using conditional independence models. Am J Epidemiol 138:430-442.
19. Richardson S, Leblond L, Jaussent I, Green PJ (2002) Mixture models in measurement error problems, with reference to epidemiological studies. J R Stat Soc A 165:549-566
20. Clayton D (1988) The analysis of event history data: a review of progress and outstanding problems. Stat Med 7:819-841
21. Deltour I, Richardson S, Thomas D (1999) A Bayesian approach to measurement error in dose response analysis: application to the atomic bomb survivors cohort. In: Ron E, Hoffman FO (eds) Uncertainties in radiation dosimetry and their impact on dose-response analyses. DHHS Publication no. 99-4541. National Cancer Institute, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda MD, pp 100-109
22. Richardson S, Deltour I (1999) Bayesian modelling of measurement error problems with reference to the analysis of atomic bomb survivor data. In: Barnett V, Stein A, Feridun Turkman K (eds) Statistics for the environment 4: pollution assessment and control. Wiley, Chichester, pp 259-279
23. Little MP, Deltour I, Richardson S (2000) Projection of cancel-risks from the Japanese atomic bomb survivors to the England and Wales population taking into account uncertainty in risk parameters. Radiat Environ Biophys 39:241-252, 40:236
24. Little MP, Deltour I, Richardson S (2000) Projection of cancel-risks from the Japanese atomic bomb survivors to the England and Wales population taking into account uncertainty in risk parameters. Radiat Environ Biophys 39:241-252, 40:236
25. Preston DL, Kusumi S, Tomonaga M et al. (1994) Cancer incidence in atomic bomb survivors. Part III: leukemia, lymphoma and multiple myeloma, 1950-1987. Radiat Res 137:868-97, 139:129
26. Preston DL, Kusumi S, Tomonaga M et al. (1994) Cancer incidence in atomic bomb survivors. Part III: leukemia, lymphoma and multiple myeloma, 1950-1987. Radiat Res 137:868-97, 139:129
27. Thompson DE, Mabuchi K, Ron E et al. (1994) Cancer incidence in atomic bomb survivors. Part II: solid tumors, 1958-1987. Radiat Res 137:817-67, 139:129
28. Thompson DE, Mabuchi K, Ron E et al. (1994) Cancer incidence in atomic bomb survivors. Part II: solid tumors, 1958-1987. Radiat Res 137:817-67, 139:129
29. Roesch WC (ed) (1987) US-Japan joint reassessment of atomic bomb radiation dosimetry in Hiroshima and Nagasaki. Radiation Effects Research Foundation, Hiroshima
30. Spiegelhalter DJ, Thomas A, Best N, Lunn D (2003) WinBUGS version 1.4. http://www.mrc-bsu.cam.ac.uk/bugs/welcome.shtml. MRC Biostatistics Unit, Cambridge
31. Little MP, Vathaire F de, Charles MW, Hawkins MM, Muirhead CR (1997) Variations with time and age in the relative risks of solid cancer incidence after radiation exposure. J Radiol Prot 17:159-177
32. Thomas D, Darby S, Fagnani F, Hubert P, Vaeth M, Weiss K (1992) Definition and estimation of lifetime detriment from radiation exposures: principles and methods. Health Phys 63:259-272
33. Office for National Statistics (ONS) (1999) Mortality statistics cause. Review of the Registrar General on deaths by cause, sex and age, in England and Wales, 1998. Series DH2 no. 25. HMSO, London
34. Little MP, Muirhead CR, Goossens LHJ, Kraan BCP, Cooke RM, Harper FT, Hora SC (1997) Probabilistic accident consequence uncertainty analysis. Late health effects uncertainty assessment. Vol 1. Main Report. NUREG/CR-6555 (EUR 16774; SAND 97-2322). United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Washington DC
35. Parkin DM, Whelan SL, Ferlay J, Raymond L, Young J (1997) Cancer incidence in five continents. Volume VII. IARC Scientific Publications Number 143. International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon
36. Preston DL, Shimizu Y, Pierce DA, Suyama A, Mabuchi K (2003) Studies of mortality of atomic bomb survivors. Report 13: solid cancer and noncancer disease mortality: 1950-1997. Radiat Res 160:381-407
37. Shimizu Y, Kato H, Schull WJ (1990) Studies of the mortality of A-bomb survivors. 9. Mortality, 1950-1985: Part 2. Cancer mortality based on the recently revised doses (DS86). Radiat Res 121:120-141
38. Cologne JB, Preston DL (2000) Longevity of atomic-bomb survivors. Lancet 356:303-307
39. Pierce DA, Preston DL (2000) Radiation-related cancer risks at low doses among atomic bomb survivors. Radiat Res 154:178-186
40. Kellerer AM, Walsh LM, Nekolla EA (2002) Risk coefficient for γ-rays with regard to solid cancer. Radiat Environ Biophys 41:113-123
41. Walsh LM, Rühm W, Kellerer AM (2004) Cancer risk estimates for gamma-rays with regard to organ-specific doses. Part I: All solid cancers combined. Radiat Environ Biophys 43:145-151
42. Muirhead CR, Darby SC (1987) Modelling the relative and absolute risks of radiation-induced cancers. J R Stat Soc A 150:83-118
43. Little MP, Muirhead CR, Charles MW (1999) Describing time and age variations in the risk of radiation-induced solid tumour incidence in the Japanese atomic bomb survivors using generalized relative and absolute risk models. Stat Med 18:17-33
44. Straume T, Egbert SD, Woolson WA et al. (1992) Neutron discrepancies in the DS86 Hiroshima dosimetry system. Health Phys 63:421-426
45. Straume T, Harris LJ, Marchetti AA, Egbert SD (1994) Neutrons confirmed in Nagasaki and at the Army Pulsed Radiation Facility: implications for Hiroshima. Radiat Res 138:193-200
46. Straume T, Rugel G, Marchetti AA et al. (2003) Measuring fast neutrons in Hiroshima at distances relevant to atomic-bomb survivors. Nature 424:539-542
47. Cullings HM, Fujita S (2003) The way to DS02: resolving the neutron discrepancy. Radiation Effects Research Foundation, Hiroshima. RERF Update 14:17-23
48. Preston DL, Pierce DA, Shimizu Y, Cullings HM, Fujita S, Funamoto S, Kodama K (2004) Effect of recent changes in atomic bomb survivor dosimetry on cancer mortality risk estimates. Radiat Res 162:377-389
49. Pierce DA, Sharp GB, Mabuchi K (2003) Joint effects of radiation and smoking on lung cancer risk among atomic bomb survivors. Radiat Res 159:511-520
50. Rosner B, Willett WC, Spiegelman D (1989) Correction of logistic regression relative risk estimates and confidence intervals for systematic within-person measurement error. Stat Med 8:1051-1069
51. Kuha J (1994) Corrections for exposure measurement error in logistic regression models with an application to nutritional data. Stat Med 13:1135-1148