Spatial generalized linear mixed models of electric power outages due to hurricanes and ice storms

Reliability Engineering and System Safety

Volumn 93, Issue 6, 2008, Pages 897-912

  Liu, Haibin ^a   Davidson, Rachel A ^a   Apanasovich, Tatiyana V ^a  

^a School of Civil and Environmental Engineering   (United States)

Author keywords

Electric power; Generalized linear mixed model; Hurricane; Ice storm; Spatial

Indexed keywords

COMPUTER SIMULATION; CORRELATION METHODS; COVARIANCE MATRIX; DATABASE SYSTEMS; HURRICANES;

HURRICANE INDICATOR; SPATIAL CORRELATION;

ELECTRIC POWER DISTRIBUTION;

EID: 39749146550     PISSN: 09518320     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2007.03.038     Document Type: Article

References (52)

1. Dominion Energy. Hurricane Isabel: a final review. Dominion Energy Storm Center. 〈http://www.dom.com/news/isabel_review.jsp〉 [Retrieved November 2003].
2. Lecomte E.L., Pang A.W., and Russell J.W. Ice storm '98 (1998), Institute for Catastrophic Loss Reduction, Toronto, Canada
3. Brown R.E. Electric power distribution reliability (2002), Marcel Dekker, New York
4. Gilligan S.R. A method for estimating the reliability of distribution circuits. IEEE Trans Power Deliver 7 2 (1992) 694-698
5. Vickery PJ, Twisdale LA, Montpellier P, Steckley AC. Hurricane vulnerability and risk analysis of the VINLEC transmission and distribution system. Raleigh, NC: Applied Research Associates.
6. Brown R.E., Gupta S., Christie R.D., Venkata S.S., and Fletcher R. Distribution system reliability assessment: momentary interruptions and storms. IEEE Trans Power Deliver 12 4 (1997) 1569-1575
7. Balijepalli N., Venkata S.S., Richter Jr. C.W., Christie R.D., and Longo V.J. Distribution system reliability assessment due to lightning storms. IEEE Trans Power Deliver 20 3 (2005) 2153-2159
8. Shen B, Koval D, Shen S. Modelling extreme-weather-related transmission line outages. In: Proceedings of the 1999 IEEE Canadian conference on electrical and computer engineering. Edmonton, Alta., Canada, 1999. p. 1271-6.
9. Gutwin TB. Application of BCTC standardized risk estimation model to assess risk due to ice storms. In: Proceedings of the 8th international conference on probabilistic methods applied to power systems. Ames, Iowa, 2004. p. 970-4.
10. Liu H., Davidson R., Rosowsky D.V., and Stedinger J. Negative binomial regression of electric power outages in hurricanes. J Infrastruct Syst 11 4 (2005) 258-267
11. Fa-Si-Oen V., and Pievatolo A. The analysis of ruptures in metropolitan gas pipelines. Quality Reliab Eng Int 16 1 (2000) 17-22
12. Madanat S., and Wan Ibrahim W.H. Poisson regression models of infrastructure transition probabilities. J Transp Eng ASCE 121 3 (1995) 267-272
13. Guikema S., Davidson R., and Liu H. Statistical models of the effects of tree trimming on power system outages. IEEE Trans Power Deliver 21 (2006)
14. Huang Z., Rosowsky D.V., and Sparks P.R. Hurricane simulation techniques for the evaluation of wind speeds and expected insurance losses. J Wind Eng Ind Aerod 89 (2001) 605-617
15. Hagemann S, Botzet M, Dümenil L, Machenhauer B. Derivation of global GCM boundary conditions from 1 km land use satellite data. Report No. 289, Hamburg: Max-Planck-Institute for Meteorology; 1999.
16. National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). 〈www.ncdc.noaa.gov〉 [Retrieved February 2006].
17. Malczewski J. GIS and multicriteria decision analysis (1999), Wiley, New York
18. DeGaetano AT, Belcher BN, Spier PL. Using Weather Research and Forecasting model output to estimate ice accretion during freezing rain events. Working paper, Department of Earth and Atmospheric Science, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY, 2006.
19. Michalakes J, Chen SH, Dudhia J, Hart L, Klemp J, Middlecoff J, Skamarock W. Development of a next generation regional weather research and forecast model. In: Developments in Teracomputing: Proceedings of 9th ECMWF workshop on the use of high performance computing in meteorology, Singapore, 2001. p. 269-76.
20. Skamarock WC, Klemp JB, Dudhia J. 2001: Prototypes for the WRF (Weather Research and Forecast) model. Preprints. In: Ninth conference on mesoscale processes, Fort Lauderdale, FL, 2001. p. J11-5.
21. Ramer, J. An empirical technique for diagnosing precipitation type from model output. Preprints. In: Proceedings of the 5th international conference on aviation weather systems, Vienna, VA, 1993. p. 227-30.
22. Jones K.F. A simple model for freezing rain ice loads. Atmos Res 46 (1998) 87-97
23. Multi-Resolution Land Characteristics (MRLC) Consortium. National Land Cover Data. 〈http://www.epa.gov/mrlc/nlcd.html〉 [Retrieved July 2001].
24. Duryea M.L., Blakeslee G.M., Hubbard W.G., and Vasquez R.A. Wind and trees: a survey of homeowners after Hurricane Andrew. J Arboric 22 1 (1996) 44-49
25. Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS), US Department of Agriculture. State Soil Geographic (STATSGO) Database. 〈http://www.ftw.nrcs.usda.gov/stat_data.html〉 [Retrieved December 2003].
26. Liu H. Statistical modeling of electric power outage counts and restoration times during hurricanes and ice storms. PhD. thesis, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY.
27. McCullagh P., and Nelder J.A. Generalized linear models (1989), Chapman & Hall, New York
28. McCulloch C., and Searle S. Generalized, linear, and mixed models (2001), Wiley, New York
29. Cressie N.A.C. Statistics for spatial data, revised ed (1993), Wiley, New York
30. Liang K.Y., and Zeger S.L. Longitudinal data analysis using generalized linear models. Biometrika 73 1 (1986) 13-22
31. McCulloch C.E. Maximum likelihood algorithms for generalized linear mixed models. J Am Stat Assoc 92 (1997) 162-170
32. Breslow N.E., and Clayton D.G. Approximate inference in generalized linear mixed models. J Am Stat Assoc 88 (1993) 9-25
33. McCulloch C.E. Generalized linear mixed models (2003), Institute of Mathematical Statistics, Beachwood, OH
34. Browne W.J., and Draper D. Implementation and performance issues in the Bayesian and likelihood fitting of multilevel models. Computation Stat 15 (2000) 391-420
35. Diggle P., Tawn J., and Moyeed R. Model based geostatistics (with discussion). Appl Stat J Roy St C 47 (1998) 299-350
36. Lindsay B.G. Composite likelihood methods. Contemp Math 80 (1988) 221-239
37. Cox D.R., and Reid N. A note on pseudolikelihood constructed from marginal densities. Biometrika 91 (2004) 729-737
38. Heagerty P., and Lele S. A composite likelihood approach to binary data in space. J Am Stat Assoc 93 (1998) 1099-1111
39. Varin C., Host G., and Skare O. Pairwise likelihood inference in spatial generalized linear mixed models. Comput Stat Data Anal 49 (2005) 1173-1191
40. Apanasovich T.V., Ruppert D., Lupton J.R., Popovic N., Turner N.D., Chapkin R.S., et al. Semiparametric spatial modeling of binary outcomes. J Am Stat Assoc (2005) [submitted]
41. Welsh A.H. Aspects of statistical inference (1996), Wiley, New York
42. Pinheiro J., and Bates D. Approximations to the log-likelihood function in the nonlinear mixed-effects model. J Comput Graph Stat 4 (1995) 12-35
43. Abramowitz M., and Stegun I.A. Handbook of mathematical functions with formulas, graphs, and mathematical tables (1964), US GPO, Washington, DC
44. Broström G. Generalized linear models with random intercepts 〈http://www.stat.umu.se/forskning/glmmML.pdf〉 [Retrieved September 2005].
45. Nelder J.A., and Mead R. A simplex method for function minimization. Comput J 7 (1965) 308-313
46. Lumley T., and Heagerty P. Weighted empirical adaptive variance estimators for correlated data regression. J Roy Stat Soc B Met 61 2 (1999) 459-477
47. White H. Asymptotic theory for econometricians (2001), Academic Press, San Diego
48. Sherman M. Variance estimation for statistics computed from spatial lattice data. J Roy Stat Soc B Met 58 (1996) 509-523
49. Zhang H. Inconsistent estimation and asymptotically equal interpolations in model-based geostatistics. J Am Stat Assoc 99 (2004) 250-261
50. SAS software. Release 8.02 (1999-2001), SAS Institute, Cary, NC
51. Varin C., and Vidoni P. A note on composite likelihood inference and model selection. Biometrika 92 3 (2005) 519-528
52. Cameron A.C., and Trivedi P.K. Regression analysis of count data (1998), Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK