Time matters: Adapting to transformation

Journal of Communist Studies and Transition Politics

Volumn 24, Issue 1, 2008, Pages 90-114

  Rose, Richard ^a   Mishler, William ^a   Munro, Neil ^a  

^a NONE

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

EID: 39349109797     PISSN: 13523279     EISSN: 17439116     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1080/13523270701840480     Document Type: Article

References (38)

1. Douglass C. North, 'In Anticipation of the Marriage of Political and Economic Theory', in James E. Alt, M. Levi and E. Ostrom (eds.), Competition and Cooperation (New York: Russell Sage Foundation, 1999), pp.314-17 (p.316).
2. Richard Rose, 'Learning to Support New Regimes in Europe', Journal of Democracy, Vol.18, No.3 (2007), pp.111-25.
3. Joan Robinson, 'History versus Equilibrium', Collected Economic Papers of Joan Robinson, Vol.5 (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1979), pp.48-58
4. Richard Rose, 'Political Behaviour in Time and Space', in Russell Dalton and Hans-Dieter Klingemann (eds.), Oxford Handbook of Political Behaviour (New York: Oxford University Press, 2007), pp.283-301.
5. Juan J. Linz, 'Transitions to Democracy', The Washington Quarterly Vol.13, No.3 (1990), pp.143-64.
6. David Easton, A Systems Analysis of Political Life (New York: Wiley, 1965), pp.159ff.
7. Richard Rose, 'Dynamic Tendencies in the Authority of Regimes', World Politics, Vol.21, No.4 (1969), pp.612-28.
8. Vladimir Shlapentokh, The Public and Private Life of the Soviet People (New York: Oxford University Press, 1989), p.106.
9. Richard Rose and William Mishler, 'Comparing Regime Support in Non-Democratic and Democratic Countries', Democratization, Vol.9, No.2 (2002), pp.1-20.
10. Richard Rose, William Mishler and Neil Munro, Russia Transformed: Developing Popular Support for a New Regime (New York: Cambridge University Press, 2007), Figure 7.1.
11. Timothy J. Colton, Transitional Citizens: Voters and What Influences Them in the New Russia (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 2000), Ch.4.
12. H. Peyton Young, Individual Strategy and Social Structure: An Evolutionary Theory of Institutions (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1998).
13. Ibid.
14. Frank R. Baumgartner and Bryan D. Jones, Agendas and Instability in American Politics (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1993), Ch.1.
15. Juan J. Linz and Alfred Stepan, Problems of Democratic Transition and Consolidation: Southern Europe, South America and Post-Communist Europe (Baltimore, MD: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1996), p.452.
16. Allen C. Lynch, How Russia is Not Ruled (New York: Cambridge University Press, 2005), p.173.
17. William Mishler and Richard Rose, 'Learning and Re-Learning Regime Support: The Dynamics of Post-Communist Regimes', European Journal of Political Research, Vol.41, No.1 (2002), pp.5-36.
18. Linz, 'Transitions to Democracy', p.156.
19. See, for example, Nikolai Berdyaev, The Russian Idea (New York: Macmillan, 1947)
20. compare Peter J.S. Duncan, Russian Messianism: Third Rome, Holy Revolution, Communism and After (London: Routledge, 2000).
21. William Mishler and Richard Rose, 'Generation, Age and Time: Patterns of Political Learning during Russia's Transformation', American Journal of Political Science, Vol.51, No.4 (2007), pp.822-34.
22. Donald Kinder and D.R. Kiewiet, 'Sociotropic Politics: The American Case', British Journal of Political Science, Vol.11, No.2 (1981), pp.129-61.
23. Richard Rose, 'What Is the Demand for Price Stability in Post-Communist Countries?', Problems of Post-Communism, Vol.45, No.2 (1998), pp.43-50.
24. Ellen Carnaghan, 'Thinking about Democracy: Interviews with Russian Citizens', Slavic Review, Vol.60, No.2 (2001), pp.336-66.
25. For more details, see Rose et al., Russia Transformed, Ch.8.
26. More than 40 different indicators from New Russia barometer surveys were initially tested for their potential influence in OLS regressions. The many found lacking in influence were discarded in order to focus on the most important results, including the theoretically significant null finding of social structure and household economic circumstances lacking influence on support for the present regime.
27. Susan C. Stokes (ed.), Public Support for Market Reforms in New Democracies (New York: Cambridge University Press, 2001), pp.9ff.
28. Paul Pierson, Politics in Time: History, Institutions and Social Analysis (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2004), Ch.1.
29. See Rose et al., Russia Transformed, Table 9.2.
30. Marco R. Steenbergen and Bradford S. Jones, 'Modelling Multilevel Data Structures', American Journal of Political Science, Vol.46, No.1 (2002), pp.218-37
31. Stephen W. Raudenbush, and Anthony S. Bryk, Hierarchical Linear Modelling: Applications and Data Analysis Methods, 2nd edn (Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage Publications, 2002).
32. Because the NRB surveys were conducted at different times of year, time is measured in months in order to ensure that it is an equal-interval measure for calculating its effect. Since NRB XIII did not have a full set of independent variables, it is omitted from the regression analyses; this does not affect the measurement of the passage of time.
33. To calculate the interaction effect of the passage of time, the monthly interaction coefficient must be multiplied by the number of months since the start of the Russian Federation and the product added to product of the coefficient for the independent variable and its mean value. In Table 3, the b coefficient for corruption (-1.64) measures its initial impact, when the mean level of perceived corruption was estimated at 3.50 on a four-point scale; the effect of corruption on support was thus -1.64 x 3.5 = -5.7. In each subsequent month the interaction term of -.04 is added; thus, in month two it is -1.68 and so forth. Thus, even though in month 161 the level of perceived corruption was only slightly less, 3.28, the passage of time made the effect of corruption on support much larger, -26.5 points.
34. William Mishler and John P. Willerton, 'The Dynamics of Presidential Popularity in Post- Communist Russia', Journal of Politics, Vol.65, No.1 (2003), pp.111-31.
35. See Rose et al., Russia Transformed, Table 9.2.
36. When and whether this will happen is the subject of a new CSPP research project on testing the durability of Russian regime support in response to the challenge of presidential term limits. The British ESRC is funding four additional NRB surveys in the period 2007-9. For up-to-date details, see .
37. Mishler and Rose, 'Generation, Age and Time'.
38. Samuel P. Huntington, The Third Wave: Democratization in the Late Twentieth Century (Norman, OK: University of Oklahoma Press, 1991), pp.266ff.