Evidence for a modest undercount bias in early historical Atlantic tropical cyclone counts

Geophysical Research Letters

Volumn 34, Issue 22, 2007, Pages

  Mann, Michael E ^a   Sabbatelli, Thomas A ^a   Neu, Urs ^b  

^a PENNSYLVANIA STATE UNIVERSITY   (United States)

^b Akademie der Naturwissenschaften Schweiz   (Switzerland)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

MATHEMATICAL MODELS; OCEANOGRAPHY; STATISTICAL METHODS;

CLIMATE STATE VARIABLES; TROPICAL CYCLONE;

CLIMATOLOGY;

ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION; ATMOSPHERIC MODELING; NINETEENTH CENTURY; TROPICAL CYCLONE; TWENTIETH CENTURY;

EID: 38949171696     PISSN: 00948276     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1029/2007GL031781     Document Type: Article

References (33)

1. Bove, M. C., J. B. Elsner, C. W. Landsea, X. Niu, and J. J. O'Brien (1998), Effect of El Niño on U. S. landfalling hurricanes, revisited, Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 79, 2477-2482.
2. Chang, E. K. M., and Y. Guo (2007), Is the number of North Atlantic tropical cyclones significantly underestimated prior to the availability of satellite observations?, Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L14801, doi:10.1029/2007GL030169.
3. Elsner, J. B. (2003), Tracking hurricanes, Bull. Am, Meteorol. Soc., 84, 353-356.
4. Elsner, J. B., T. Jagger, and X.-F. Niu (2000), Changes in the rates of North Atlantic major hurricane activity during the 20th century, Geophys. Res. Lett., 27, 1743-1746.
5. Elsner, J. B., R. J. Murnane, and T. H. Jagger (2006), Forecasting U. S. hurricanes 6 months in advance, Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L10704, doi:10.1029/2006GL025693.
6. Emanuel, K. (2005a), Increasing destructiveness of tropical cyclones over the past 30 years, Nature, 436, 686-688.
7. Emanuel, K. (2005b), Emanuel replies, Nature, 438, E13.
8. Goldenberg, S. B., C. W. Landsea, A. M. Mestas-Nuñez, and W. M. Gray (2001), The recent increase in Atlantic hurricane activity: Causes and implications, Science, 293, 474-479.
9. Gray, W. M. (1968), Global view of the origins of tropical disturbances and storms, Mon. Weather Rev., 96, 669-700.
10. Gvay, W. M. (1984), Atlantic seasonal hurricane frequeney, Part I: El Niño and 30 mb quasi-biennial oscillation influences, Mon. Weather Rev., 115, 1649-1668.
11. Holland, G. J. (2007), Misuse of landfall as a proxy for Atlantic tropical cyclone activity, Eos Trans. AGU, 88, 349.
12. Holland, G. J., and P. J. Webster (2007), Heightened tropical cyclone activity in the North Atlantic: Natural variability or climate trend?, Philos. Trans. R. Soc. Ser. A, 365, 2695-2716, doi:10.1098/ rsta.2007.2083.
13. Hoyos, C. D., P. A. Agudelo, P. J. Webster, and J. A. Curry (2007), Deconvolution of the factors contributing to the increase in global hurricane intensity, Science, 312, 94-97.
14. Jarvinen, B. R., C. J. Neumann and M. A. S. Davis (1984), A tropical cyclone data tape for the North Atlantic Basin, 1886-1983: Contents, limitations, and uses, report, NOAA Natl. Hurricane Cent., Miami, Fla.
15. Jones, P. D., T. Jónsson, and D. Wheeler (1997), Extension to the North Atlantic Oscillation using early instrumental pressure observations from Gibraltar and South-West Iceland, Int. J. Climatol, 17, 1433-1450.
16. Kaplan, A., M. A. Cane, Y. Kushnir, A. C. Clement, M. B. Blumenthal, and B. Rajagopalan (1998), Analyses of global sea surface temperatures: 1856-1991, J. Geophys. Res., 103(C9), 18,567-18,589.
17. Landsea, C. W. (2005), Harricanes and global warming, Nature, 438, E11-E13.
18. Landsea, C. W. (2007), Counting Atlantic tropical cyclones back to 1900, Eos Trans. AGU, 88(18), 197.
19. Landsea, C. W., C. Anderson, N. Charles, G. Clark, J. Dunion, J. Fernandez-Partagas, P. Hungerford, C. Neumann, and M. Zimmer (2004), The Atlantic hurricane database re-analysis project: Documentation for the 1851-1910 alterations and additions to the HURDAT database, in Hurricanes and Typhoons: Past, Present and Future, edited by R. J. Murname and K-B. Liu, pp. 177-221, Columbia Univ. Press, New York.
20. Mann, M. E., and K. A. Emanuel (2006), Atlantic Hurricane trends linked to climate change, Eos Trans. AGU, 87(24), 233.
21. Neumann, C. J., B. R. Jarvinen, C. J. McAdie, and J. D. Elms (1999), Tropical cyclones of the North Atlantic Ocean, 1871-1998, Hist. Climatol. Ser. 6-2, Natl. Clim. Data Cear., Asheville, N. C.
22. Nyberg, J., B. A. Malmgren, A. Winter, M. R. Jury, K. H. Kilbourne, and T. M. Quinn (2007), Low Atlantic hurricane activity in the 1970s and 1980s compared to the past 270 years, Nature, 447, 698-702.
23. Rayner, N. A., D. E. Parker, E. B. Horton, C. K. Folland, L. V. Alexander, D. P. Rowell, E. C. Kent, and A. Kaplan (2003), Global analyses of sea surface temperature, sea ice, and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth centuty, J. Geophys. Res., 108(D14), 4407, doi:10.1029/2002JD002670.
24. Sabbatelli, T. A., and M. E. Mann (2007), The influence of climate state variables on Atlantic Tropical Cyclone occurrence rates, J. Geophys. Res., 112, D17114, doi:10.1029/2007JD008385.
25. Santer, B. D., et al. (2006), Forced and unforced ocean temperatura changes in Atlantic and Pacific tropical cyclogenesis regions, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U. S. A., 203, 13,905-13,910.
26. Saunders, M. A., and A. R. Harris (1997), Statistical evidence links exceptional 1995 Atlantic hurricane season to record sea warming, Geophys. Res. Lett., 24, 1255-1258.
27. Shapiro, L. J. (1982), Hurricane climatic fluctuations. Part II: Relation to large-scale circulation, Mon. Weather Rev., 110, 1014-1023.
28. Shapiro, L. J., and S. B. Goldenberg (1998), Atlantic sea surface temperatures and hurricane formation, J. Clim., 11, 578-590.
29. Smith, T M., and R. W. Reynolds (2003), Extended reconstruction of global sea surface temperatures based on COADS data (1854-1997), J. Clim., 16, 1495-1510.
30. Sriver, R., and M. Huber (2006), Low frequency variability in globally integrated tropical cyclone power dissipation, Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L11705, doi:10.1029/2006GL026167.
31. Trenberth, K. E., and D. J. Shea (2006), Atlantic hurricanes and natural variability in 2005, Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L12704, doi:10.1029/ 2006GL026894.
32. Webster, P. J., G. J. Holland, J. A. Curry, and H. R. Chang (2005), Changes in tropical cyclone number, duration, and intensity, in warming environment, Science, 309, 1844-1846.
33. Wilks, D. S. (2005), Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences: An Introduction, 2nd ed., 520 pp., Academic Press, New York.