Eruption early warning at vesuvius: The A.D. 1631 lesson

Geophysical Research Letters

Volumn 33, Issue 18, 2006, Pages

  Bertagnini, Antonella ^a   Cioni, Raffaello ^b   Guidoboni, Emanuela ^c   Rosi, Mauro ^a,d   Neri, Augosto ^a   Boschi, Enzo ^e  

^a SEZIONE DI PISA   (Italy)

^b UNIVERSITY OF CAGLIARI   (Italy)

^c Storia Geofisica Ambiente   (Italy)

^d UNIVERSITY OF PISA   (Italy)

^e ISTITUTO NAZIONALE DI GEOFISICA E VULCANOLOGIA   (Italy)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

EARTHQUAKE RESISTANCE; EARTHQUAKES; FORECASTING; GAS EMISSIONS; MONITORING; TECTONICS; VOLCANOES;

ERUPTION; TECTONIC EARTHQUAKES; VOLCANO FORECASTING;

SEISMOLOGY; VOLCANOES;

DEFORMATION MECHANISM; DISASTER MANAGEMENT; EARLY WARNING SYSTEM; EARTHQUAKE PRECURSOR; FISSURE; SEISMICITY; VOLCANIC ERUPTION; VOLCANOLOGY;

CAMPANIA [ITALY]; EURASIA; EUROPE; ITALY; NAPOLI [CAMPANIA]; SOUTHERN EUROPE; VESUVIUS;

CIVIL PROTECTION; EARLY WARNING; MEDIUM TERM; SEISMIC ACTIVITY; SHORT TERM; SUB-PLINIAN ERUPTION; TECTONIC EARTHQUAKES; VOLCANIC CONES;

EID: 38549104989     PISSN: 00948276     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1029/2006GL027297     Document Type: Article

References (24)

1. Alfano, G. B., and I. Friedlaender (1929), La storia del Vesuvio, illustrata dai documenti coevi, Karl Höhn, Ulm, Germany.
2. Barberi, F., A. Bertagnini, P. Landi, and C. Principe (1992), A review on phreatic eruptions and their precursors, J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res., 52, 231-246.
3. Benoit, J. P., and S. McNutt (1996), Global volcanic earthquake swarm database 1979-1989, U.S. Geol. Surv. Open File Rep., 96-69.
4. Biagi, P. F., L. Castellana, R. Piccolo, A. Minafra, G. Maggipinto, A. Ermini, V. Capozzi, G. Perna, Y. M. Khatkevich, and E. I. Gordeev (2004), Disturbances in groundwater chemical parameters related to seismic and volcanic activity in Kamchatka (Russia), Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 4, 535-539.
5. Carafa, G. (1632), De novissima Vesuvii conflagratione Epistula isagogica, Tipogr. Reale Longhi E., Naples, Italy.
6. Carapezza, M. L., S. Inguaggiato, L. Brusca, and M. Longo (2004), Geochemical precursors of the activity of an open-conduit volcano: The Stromboli 2002-2003 eruptive events, Geophys. Res. Lett., 31, L07620, doi:10.1029/2004GL019614.
7. 2 emissions and volcanic activity of the island of Volcano (Aeolian Islands, Italy) during the period 1984-1994, Bull. Volcanol., 64, 219-228.
8. Endo, E. T., T. L. Murray, and J. A. Power (1996), A comparison of preeruption real-time seismic amplitude measurements for eruptions at Mount St. Helens, Redoubt Volcano, Mount Spurr, and Mount Pinatubo, in Fire and Mud, edited by C. Newhall and R. Punongbuyan, pp. 233-247, Univ. of Wash. Press, Seattle.
9. 2 emission at Mammoth Mountain as a sign of magmatic unrest, Nature, 376, 675-678.
10. Guidoboni, E. (2004), Analysis of three coeval treatises on the 1631 Vesuvius eruption, finalised to the evidence of the precursors: Gregorio Carafa, Giovan Battista Mascolo, Salvatore Varonius, Internal Rep. D2.4 Eur. Union Proj., in Explosive Eruption Risk and Decision Support for EU Population Threatened by Volcanoes, Ist. Naz. Geofis. Vulcanol., Pisa, Italy. (Available at www.sga-storiageo.it/ vesuvius∥ecursors_1631.pdf)
11. Kilburn, C. R. J. (2003), Multiscale fracturing as a key to forecasting volcanic eruptions, J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res., 125, 271-289.
12. Mascolo, G. B. (1633), De Incendio Vesuvii excitato XVII. Kal. Ianuar. anno trigesimo prima saeculi Decimiseptimi Libri X cum Chronologia superiorum incendiorum et Ephemeride ultimi, Officina Roncalioli S., Naples, Italy.
13. McNutt, S. R. (1996), Seismic monitoring and eruption forecasting of volcanoes: A review of the state of the art and case histories, in Monitoring and Mitigation of Volcano Hazards, edited by R. Scarpa and R. I. Tilling, pp. 99-146, Springer, New York.
14. McNutt, S. R. (2000), Seismic monitoring, in Encyclopedia of Volcanoes, edited by H. Sigurdsson, pp. 1095-1119, Elsevier, New York.
15. McNutt, S. R., H. Rymer, and J. Stix (2000), Synthesis of volcano monitoring, in Encyclopedia of Volcanoes, edited by H. Sigurdsson, pp. 1165-1183, Elsevier, New York.
16. Mogi, K. (1958), Relation between eruptions of various volcanoes and the deformations of the ground surfaces around them, Bull. Earthquake Res. Inst. Univ. Tokyo, 36, 99-134.
17. Nazzaro, A. (1998), Some considerations on the state of Vesuvius in the Middle Ages and the precursors of the 1631 eruption, Ann. Geophys., 41, 555-565.
18. Newhall, C. G., S. E. Albano, N. Matsumoto, and T. Sandoval (2001), Roles of groundwater in volcanic unrest, J. Geol. Soc. Philipp., 56, 69-84.
19. Rolandi, G., A. M. Barrella, and A. Borrelli (1993), The 1631 eruption of Vesuvius, J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res., 58, 183-201,
20. Rosi, M., C. Principe, and R. Vecci (1993), The 1631 Vesuvius eruption: A reconstruction based on historical and stratigraphical data, J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res., 58, 151-182.
21. Shibata, T., and F. Akita (2001), Precursory changes in well water level prior to the March, 2000 eruption of Usu volcano, Japan, Geophys. Res. Lett., 28, 1799-1802.
22. Sparks, R. S. J. (2003), Forecasting volcanic eruptions, Earth Planet. Sci. Lett., 210, 1-15.
23. Varone, S. (1634), Vesuviani Incendii Historiae: Libri tres, Francisci Savii Typogr., Naples, Italy.
24. Voight, B. (1988), A method for prediction of volcanic eruptions, Nature, 332, 125-130.