Future projections of winter rainfall in southeast Australia using a statistical downscaling technique

Climatic Change

Volumn 86, Issue 1-2, 2008, Pages 165-187

  Timbal, B ^a,b   Jones, D A ^a  

^a BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY   (Australia)

^b BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY RESEARCH CENTRE   (Australia)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

CLIMATE CHANGE; DROUGHT; GREENHOUSE GASES; MATHEMATICAL MODELS; SEA LEVEL; WATER;

STATISTICAL DOWNSCALING TECHNIQUE; WINTER RAINFALL;

RAIN;

DROUGHT; GREENHOUSE GAS; RAINFALL; STATISTICAL ANALYSIS; WATER SUPPLY; WINTER;

AUSTRALASIA; AUSTRALIA; MELBOURNE; VICTORIA [AUSTRALIA];

EID: 37549036295     PISSN: 01650009     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1007/s10584-007-9279-7     Document Type: Article

References (56)

1. Allan R, Haylock M (1993) Circulation features associated with the winter rainfall decrease in southwestern Australia. J Climate 6:1356-1367
2. Boughton W (2005) Catchment water balance modelling in Australia 1960-2004. Agric Water Manag 71:91-116
3. Braconnot P, Marti O, Joussaume S (1997) Adjustment and feedbacks in a global coupled ocean-atmosphere model. Clim Dyn 13:507-519
4. Bureau of Meteorology (2000) Climatic atlas of Australia: rainfall. Atlas, AUSLIG, Canberra, Australia (25 pp)
5. Bureau of Meteorology (2006) An exceptionally dry decade in parts of southern and eastern Australia: October 1996-September 2006. Special Climate Statement 9, Bureau of Meteorology, 700 Collins St, Docklands, Australia
6. Charles S, Bates B, Whetton P, Hughes J (1999) Validation of downscaling models for changed climate conditions: case study of southwestern Australia. Clim Res 12:1-14
7. Charles S, Bates B, Smith I, Hughes J (2004) Statistical downscaling of daily precipitation from observed and modelled atmospheric fields. Hydrol Process 18:1374-1394
8. Collier M, Hirst A, Dix M, Cechet R, Gordon H, Kowalczyk E, O'Farrell S, Rotstayn L (2004) CMIP experimental results from the CSIRO Mk3 climate system model: comparison with reanalysis and observations. Tech. Rep., CSIRO Atmospheric Research. available online at: http://www.dar.csiro.au/publications/ collier_2004b.pdf
9. Dehn M (1999) Application of an analog downscaling technique to the assessment of future landslide activity - a case study in the Italian Alps. Clim Res 13:103-113
10. Fawcett R (2004) A long-term trend in Melbourne rainfall? Bull Aust Meteorol Oceanogr Soc 17:122-126
11. Fawcett R (2005) A reply to a comment on "A long-term trend in Melbourne rainfall?" Bull Aust Meteorol Oceanogr Soc 18:62-65
12. Gillet N, Thompson D (2003) Simulation of recent Southern Hemisphere climate change. Science 302:273-275
13. 2 and depleted ozone using a stratosphere-resolving coupled GCM. Q J R Meteorol Soc 129:947-966
14. Gillet N, Zwiers F, Weaver A, Scott P (2003b) Detection of human influence on sea-level pressure. Nature 422:292-294
15. Giorgi F, Hewitson B, Christensen J, Hulme M, Storch HV, Whetton P, Jones R, Mearns L, Fu C (2001) Climate change 2001, the scientific basis, chap. 10: regional climate information - evaluation and projections. Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPCC. University Press, Cambridge
16. Gordon H, O'Farrel S (1997) Transient climate change in the CSIRO coupled model with dynamic sea-ice. Mon Weather Rev 125:975-1007
17. Houghton J, Ding Y, Griggs D, Noguer M, van der Linden P, Dai X, Maskell K, Johnson C (2001) Climate change 2001, the scientific basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPCC. University Press, Cambridge (881 pp)
18. Howe C, Jones R, Maheepala S, Rhodes B (2005) Implications of potential climate change fro Melbourne's water resources. Tech Rep, Melbourne Water and CSIRO, 26 pp
19. Imbert A, Benestad R (2005) An improvement of analog model strategy for more reliable local climate change scenarios. Theor Appl Climatol 82:245-255
20. IOCI (1999) Towards understanding climate variability in south western Australia - research reports on the First Phase of the Indian Ocean Climate Initiative. Tech. Rep., Indian Ocean Climate Initiative Panel, Perth, 237 pp
21. IOCI (2001) Second research report - towards understanding climate variability in south West ern Australia. Research reports on the Second Research Phase of the Indian Ocean Climate Initiative. Tech. Rep., Indian Ocean Climate Initiative Panel, Perth, 193 pp
22. IOCI, Ryan B, Hope P (eds) (2005) Indian Ocean Climate Initiative Stage 2: Report of Phase 1 Activity. Tech. Rep., Indian Ocean Climate Initiative Panel, Perth, 40 pp
23. Kalnay E, Kanamitsu M, Kistler R, Collins W, Deaven D, Derber J, Gandin L, Iredell M, Saha S, White G, Woollen J, Zhu Y, Chelliah M, Ebisuzaki W, Higgins W, Janowiak J, Mo K, Ropelewski C, Wang J, Leetma A, Reynolds R, Jenne R, Joseph D (1996) The NCEP/NCAR 40-year reanalysis project. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 77:437-471
24. Kattenberg A, Giorgi F, Grassl H, Meehl G, Mitchell J, Stouffer R, Tokioka T, Weaver A, Wigley T (1996) Climate change 1995, the science of climate change, chap. 6: climate models - projections of future climate. Contribution of Working Group I to the Second Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPCC. University Press, Cambridge
25. Kistler R, Kalnay E, Collins W, Saha S, White G, Woollen J, Chelliah M, Ebisuzaki W, Kanmitsu M, Kousky V, van den Dool H, Jenne R, Fiorino M (2001) The NCEP/NCAR 50-year reanalysis: monthly means CD-ROM and documentation. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 82:247-267
26. Lambert S, Boer G (2001) CMIP1 evaluation and intercomparison of coupled climate models. Clim Dyn 17:83-106
27. Lavery B, Kariko A, Nicholls N (1992) A historical rainfall data set for Australia. Aust Meteorol Mag 40:33-39
28. Lavery B, Joung G, Nicholls N (1997) An extended high-quality historical rainfall dataset for Australia. Aust Meteorol Mag 46:27-38
29. Lawrance L, Kinsella S, Hardcastle S, Rodgers H, Drum F (2005) Australian crop report. Crop report N° 133, ABARE
30. Liepert B, Feichter J, Lohmann U, Roeckner E (2004) Can aerosols spin down the water cycle in a warmer and moister world? Geophys Res Lett 31:L06, 207, 1-4
31. Lorenz E (1969) Atmospheric predictability as revealed by naturally occurring analogues. J Atmos Sci 26:636-646
32. Marshall G (2002) Trends in Antarctic geopotential height and temperature: a comparison between radiosonde and NCEP-NCAR reanalysis data. J Clim 15:659-674
33. Marshall G (2003) Trends in the southern annular mode from observations and reanalyses. J Clim 16:4134-4143
34. Martin E, Timbal B, Brun E (1997) Downscaling of general circulation model outputs: simulation of the snow climatology of the French Alps and sensitivity to climate change. Clim Dyn 13:45-56
35. McAvaney B, Covey C, Joussaume S, Kattsov V, Kitoh A, Ogana W, Pitman A, Weaver A, Wood R, Zhao Z-C (2001) Climate change 2001, the scientific basis, chap. 8: model evaluation. Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPCC. University Press, Cambridge
36. McGregor J, Dix M (2001) The CSIRO conformal-cubic atmospheric GCM. In: Hodnett P (ed) IUTAM symposium on advances in mathematical modelling of atmosphere and ocean dynamics. Kluwer, Dordrecht, pp 307-315
37. o. 1195,3-15-3.16, WMO
38. Meehl G, Boer G, Covey C, Latif M, Stouffer R (2000) The coupled model intercomparison project (CMIP). Bull Am Meteorol Soc 81:313-318
39. Nicholls N, Chambers L, Haylock M, Frederiksen C, Jones D, Drosdowsky W (1999) Towards understanding climate variability in south Western Australia - research reports on the First Phase of the Indian Ocean Climate Initiative, chap. Climate variability and predictability for south-west Western Australia, CSIRO, 237 pp
40. Power S, Tseitkin F, Torok S, Lavery B, Dahni R, McAvaney B (1998) Australian temperature, Australian rainfall and the southern oscillation, 1910-1992: coherent variability and recent changes. Aust Meteorol Mag 47:85-101
41. Power S, Casey T, Folland C, Colman A, Mehta V (1999) Inter-decadal modulation of the impact of ENSO on Australia. Clim Dyn 15:319-324
42. 2 induced changes in interannual temperature and precipitation variability in 19 CMIP2 experiments. J Clim 15:2395-2411
43. Rhodes BG (2004) Managing Melbourne's water resources for climate variability and change. In: Climate and water: 16th Australia New Zealand Climate Forum, p 77
44. Skelly W, Henderson-Sellers A (1996) Grid box or grid point: what type type of data do GCMs deliver to climate impact researchers? Int J Climatol 16:1079-1086
45. Stern H, Moodie N, Cornall-Reilly J, Forster T, McBride P (2005) Comment on "A long-term trend in Melbourne rainfall?" Bull Aust Meteorol Oceanogr Soc 18:39-40
46. Timbal B (2004) Southwest Australia past and future rainfall trends. Clim Res 26:233-249
47. Timbal B, Arblaster J (2006) Land cover changes as an additional forcing to explain the rainfall decline in the south west of Australia. Geophys Res Lett 33(7)
48. Timbal B, McAvaney B (2001) An analogue-based method to downscale surface air temperature: application for Australia. Clim Dyn 17:947-963
49. Timbal B, Dufour A, McAvaney B (2003) An estimate of future climate change for Western France using a statistical downscaling technique. Clim Dyn 20:807-823
50. Timbal B, Arblaster J, Power S (2006) Attribution of the late 20th century rainfall decline in Southwest Australia. J Clim 19(10):2046-2062
51. Trewin B, Jones D (2004) Notable recent rainfall anomalies in Australia. In: Climate and water: 16th Australia New Zealand Climate Forum, pp 100
52. Van Den Dool H (1994) Searching for analogues, how long must we wait? Tellus 46A:314-324
53. Whetton P (1990) Relationships between monthly anomalies of Australian region sea-surface temperature and Victorian rainfall. Aust Meteorol Mag 38:31-41
54. Wilks D (1995) Statistical methods in the atmospheric sciences. Academic Press, San Diego, CA
55. Zorita E, von Storch H (1999) The analog method as a simple statistical downscaling technique: comparison with more complicated methods. J Clim 12:2474-2489
56. Zorita E, Hughes J, Lettemaier D, von Storch H (1995) Stochastic characterization of regional circulation patterns for climate model diagnosis and estimation of local precipitation. J Clim 8:1023-1042