El Niño-Southern Oscillation and Pacific Decadal Oscillation impacts on precipitation in the southern and central United States: Evaluation of spatial distribution and predictions

Water Resources Research

Volumn 43, Issue 10, 2007, Pages

  Kurtzman, Daniel ^a,b   Scanlon, Bridget R ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS AT AUSTIN   (United States)

^b Hadassah College   (Israel)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

CORRELATION METHODS; ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT; ERROR ANALYSIS; PRECIPITATION (METEOROLOGY); PROBABILITY;

LOGISTIC REGRESSION PROBABILITY MODELS; WINTER PRECIPITATION;

HYDROLOGY;

CORRELATION METHODS; ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT; ERROR ANALYSIS; HYDROLOGY; PRECIPITATION (METEOROLOGY); PROBABILITY;

CLIMATE EFFECT; CLIMATE PREDICTION; DECISION MAKING; EL NINO-SOUTHERN OSCILLATION; LA NINA; LOGISTICS; PACIFIC DECADAL OSCILLATION; PRECIPITATION (CLIMATOLOGY); PROBABILITY; SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION;

NORTH AMERICA; UNITED STATES;

EID: 36749056735     PISSN: 00431397     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1029/2007WR005863     Document Type: Article

References (37)

1. Andrade, E. R., and W. D. Sellers (1988), El Nino and its effect on precipitation in Arizona and western New Mexico, J. Climatol., 8, 403-410.
2. Bond, N. A., J. E. Overland, M. Spillane, and P. Stabeno (2003), Recent shifts in the state of the North Pacific, Geophys. Res. Lett., 30(23), 2183, doi:10.1029/2003GL018597.
3. Brown, D. P., and A. C. Comrie (2004), A winter precipitation "dipole" in the western United States associated with multidecadal ENSO variability, Geophys. Res. Lett., 31, L09203, doi:10.1029/ 2003GL018726.
4. Chen, C. C., D. Gillig, B. A. McCarl, and R. L. Williams (2005), ENSO impacts on regional water management: Case study of the Edwards Aquifer (Texas, USA), Clim. Res., 28, 175-181.
5. CIMSS (2006), A cooperative institute formed through a memorandum of understanding between the University of Wisconsin-Madison (UW-Madison), the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA): CIMSS scientists conduct research using passive remote sensing systems for meteorological and surface-based applications, Univ. of Wis., Madison.
6. Dettinger, M. D., D. R. Cayan, H. F. Diaz, and D. M. Meko (1998), Northsouth precipitation patterns in western North America on interannual-to-decadal timescales, J. Clim., 11, 3095-3111.
7. Dracup, J. A., and E. Kahya (1994), The relationships between United States streamflow and La Nina events, Water Resour. Res., 30, 2133-2141.
8. Eichler, E., and W. Higgins (2006), Climatology and ENSO-related variability North American extratropical cyclone activity, J. Clim., 19, 2076-2093.
9. Gershunov, A., and T. P. Barnett (1998), Interdecadal modulation of ENSO teleconnections, Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 79, 2715-2725.
10. Goodrich, G. B. (2004), Influence of the Pacific decadal oscillation on Arizona winter precipitation during years of neutral ENSO, Weather Forecasting, 19, 950-953.
11. Grimm, A. M., S. E. T. Ferraz, and J. Gomes (1998), Precipitation anomalies in southern Brazil associated with El Nino and La Nina events, J. Clim., 11, 2863-2880.
12. Guan, H., E. R. Vivoni, and J. L. Wilson (2005), Effects of atmospheric teleconnections on seasonal precipitation in mountainous regions of the southwestern U. S.: A case study in northern New Mexico, Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L23701, doi:10.1029/2005GL023759.
13. Guttman, N., and R. G. Quayle (1996), A historical perspective of U.S. climate divisions, Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 77, 293-303.
14. Gutzler, D. S., D. M. Kann, and C. Thornbrugh (2002), Modulation of ENSO-based long-lead outlooks of southwestern US winter precipitation by the Pacific decadal oscillation, Weather Forecasting, 17, 1163-1172.
15. Hanley, D. E., M. A. Bourassa, J. J. O'Brien, S. R. Smith, and E. R. Spade (2003), A quantitative evaluation of ENSO indices, J. Clim., 16, 1249-1258.
16. Hanson, R. T., M. W. Newhouse, and M. D. Dettinger (2004), A methodology to assess relations between climatic variability and variations in hydrologic time series in the southwestern United States, J. Hydrol., 287, 252-269.
17. Hidalgo, H. G., and J. A. Dracup (2003), ENSO and PDO effects on hydroclimatic variations of the Upper Colorado River basin, J. Hydrometeorol., 4, 5-23.
18. Kahya, E., and J. A. Dracup (1993), United States streamflow patterns in relation to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, Water Resour. Res., 29, 2491-2503.
19. Kiladis, G. N., and H. F. Diaz (1989), Global climate anomalies associated with extremes of the Southern Oscillation, J. Clim., 2, 1069-1090.
20. Mantua, N. J., S. R. Hare, Y. Zhang, J. M. Wallace, and R. C. Francis (1997), A Pacific interdecadal climate oscillation with impacts on salmon production, Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 78, 1069-1079.
21. McCabe, G. J., and M. D. Dettinger (1999), Decadal variation in the strength of ENSO teleconnections with precipitation in the western United States, Int. J. Climatol., 19, 1399-1410.
22. McPhaden, M. J., S. E. Zebiak, and M. H. Glantz (2006), ENSO as an integrating concept in Earth science, Science, 314, 1740-1745.
23. Newman, M., G. P. Compo, and M. A. Alexander (2003), ENSO-forced variability of the Pacific decadal oscillation, J. Clim., 16, 3853-3857.
24. Noel, J., and D. Changnon (1998), A pilot study examining US winter cyclone frequency patterns associated with three ENSO parameters, J. Clim., 11, 2152-2159.
25. Peterson, W. T., and F. B. Schwing (2003), A new climate regime in northeast Pacific ecosystems, Geophys. Res. Lett., 30(17), 1896, doi:10.1029/2003GL017528.
26. Piechota, T. C., and J. A. Dracup (1996), Drought and regional hydrologic variation in the United States: Associations with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, Water Resour. Res., 32, 1359-1373.
27. Pool, D. R. (2005), Variations in climate and ephemeral channel recharge in southeastern Arizona, United States, Water Resour. Res., 41, W11403, doi:10.1029/2004WR003255.
28. Rasmusson, E. M., and T. H. Carpenter (1982), Variations in tropical sea surface temperature and surface wind fields associated with the Southern Oscillation/El Niño, Mon. Weather Rev., 110, 354-384.
29. Redmond, K. T., and R. W. Koch (1991), Surface climate and streamflow variability in the western United States and their relationship to large-scale circulation indexes, Water Resour. Res., 27, 2381-2399.
30. Ropelewski, C. F., and M. S. Halpert (1986), North American precipitation and temperature patterns associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Mon. Weather Rev., 114, 2352-2362.
31. Ropelewski, C. F., and M. S. Halpert (1987), Global and regional precipitation patterns associated with El-Niño-Southern Oscillation, Mon. Weather Rev., 115, 1606-1626.
32. SAS Institute Inc. (2004), SAS/STAT 9.1 user's guide, Cary, N. C. (Available at http://support.sas.com/documentation/onlinedoc/91pdf/sasdoc_91/ stat_ug_7313.pdf)
33. Simpson, H. J., and D. C. Colodner (1999), Arizona precipitation response to the Southern Oscillation: A potential water management tool, Water Resour. Res., 35, 3761-3769.
34. Sun, H. B., and D. J. Furbish (1997), Annual precipitation and river discharges in Florida in response to El Nino and La Nina sea surface temperature anomalies, J. Hydrol., 199, 74-87.
35. Trenberth, K. E. (1997), The definition of El Nino, Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 78, 2111-2117.
36. Trenberth, K. E., G. W. Branstator, D. Karoly, A. Kumar, N. C. Lau, and C. Ropelewski (1998), Progress during TOGA in understanding and modeling global teleconnections associated with tropical sea surface temperatures, J. Geophys. Res., 103, 14,291-14,324.
37. Wolter, K., and M. S. Timlin (1993), Monitoring ENSO in COADS with a seasonally adjusted principal component index, paper presented at 17th Climate Diagnostics Workshop, Univ. of Okla., Norman.