Accounting for risk and uncertainty in determining preferred strategies for adapting to future climate change

Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change

Volumn 13, Issue 1, 2008, Pages 47-60

  Prato, Tony ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF MISSOURI   (United States)

Author keywords

Adaptive strategies; Climate change; Risk; Uncertainty

Indexed keywords

CLIMATE CHANGE; ECOSYSTEM MANAGEMENT; POLICY MAKING; RISK ASSESSMENT; STRATEGIC APPROACH;

EID: 36649002698     PISSN: 13812386     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1007/s11027-007-9080-y     Document Type: Article

References (54)

1. Ackerman F, Stanton E (2006) Climate change-the costs of inaction. Report to Friends of the Earth England, Wales and Northern Ireland http://www.ase.tufts.edu/gdae/Pubs/rp/Climate-CostsofInaction.pdf. Cited 26 October 2006
2. Allen M, Raper S, Mitchell J (2001) Climate change-uncertainty in the IPCC's Third Assessment Report. Science 293:430-433
3. Arthur LM, Van Kooten GC (1992) Climatic impacts on the agribusiness sectors of a prairie economy. Prairie For 17:97-109
4. Barrett CR, Pattanaik PK (1989) Fuzzy sets, preference and choice: Some conceptual issues. Bull Econ Res 41:229-253
5. Bass SM, Kwakernaak H (1977) Rating and ranking of multiple-aspect alternatives using fuzzy sets. Automatica 13:47-58
6. Bellman RE, Zadeh LA (1970) Decision-making in a fuzzy environment. Manage Sci 17:B-141-B-164
7. Berrens RP, Brookshire DS, McKee M, Schmidt C (1998) Implementing the safe minimum standard approach. Land Econ 74:147-161
8. Bishop RC (1978) Endangered species and uncertainty: the economics of a safe minimum standard. Am J Agri Econ 60:10-18
9. Bryant CR, Smit B, Brklacich M, Johnston TR, Smithers J, Singh B (2000) Adaptation in Canadian agriculture to climate variability and change. Clim Change 45:181-201
10. Carlsson C, Fuller R (1996) Fuzzy multiple criteria decision making: Recent developments. Fuzzy Sets Syst 78:139-153
11. Castle E (1996) Pluralism and pragmatism in the pursuit of sustainable development. In: Adamowicz W, Boxall P, Luckert M, Phillips W, White W (eds) Forestry, economics and the environment, CAB International, Wallingford, United Kingdom, pp 1-9
12. Ciriacy-Wantrup SV (1952) Resource conservation: economics and policies. University of California Press, Berkeley, California
13. Congressional Budget Office (2005) Uncertainty in analyzing climate change: policy implications. Washington, DC
14. Dessai S, Hulme M (2003) Does climate policy need probabilities? Working paper 34. Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, United Kingdom
15. Dorazio RM, Johnson FA (2003) Bayesian inference and decision theory-a framework for decision making in natural resource management. Ecol Appl 13:556-563
16. Dunn E, Keller J, Marks L (1996) Fuzzy multiple attribute decision making (MADM): A tool for agricultural and resource economics. Proceedings, Annual American Agricultural Economics Association Meeting, San Antonio, Texas (July)
17. Dunn EG, Keller JM, Marks LA (1998) Integrated decision making for sustainability: a fuzzy MADM model for agriculture. In: El-Swaify S, Yakowitz D (eds) Multiple objective decision making for land, water, and environmental management, St. Lucie Press, Boca Raton, Florida, pp 313-322
18. Easterling WE III, Hurd BH, Smith JB (2004) Coping with global climate change: the role of adaptation in the United States. Pew Center on Global Climate Change, Arlington, Virginia
19. Ellison M (1996) An introduction to Bayesian inference for ecological research and environmental decision-making. Ecol Appl 6:1036-1046
20. Fussel HM, Klein RJT (2006) Climate change vulnerability assessments: an evolution of conceptual thinking. Clim Change 75:301-329
21. Gassman PW, Williams JR, Bunsen VW, Izaurralde RC, Hauck LM, Jones CA, Atwood JD, Kiniry JR, Flowers JD (2005). Historical development and applications of the EPIC and APEX models. Working Paper 05-WP 397. Center for Agricultural and Rural Development, Iowa State University, Ames
22. Grübler A., N. Nakicenovic (2001) Identifying dangers in an uncertain climate. Nature 412:15
23. Herath G, Prato T (eds) (2006) Using multi-criteria decision analysis in natural resource management: empirical applications. Ashgate Publishing, Ltd., United Kingdom
24. Inkley DB, Anderson MG, Blaustein AR, Burkett VR, Felzer B, Griffith B, Price J, Root TL (2004) Global climate change and wildlife in North America. Technical Review 04-2. The Wildlife Society, Bethesda, Maryland
25. Klir GJ, Yuan B (1995) Fuzzy sets and fuzzy logic: theory and applications. Prentice-Hall, Inc. Upper Saddle River, New Jersey
26. Leimbach M (1996) Development of a fuzzy optimization model, supporting global warming decision-making. J Env and Res Econ 7:163-192
27. Lempert RJ, Schlesinger ME (2000) Robust strategies for abating climate change. Clim Change 45:387-401
28. Lempert R, Schlesinger ME (2001) Climate-change strategy needs to be robust. Nature 412:375-375
29. Metternicht G (2001) Assessing temporal and spatial changes of salinity using fuzzy logic, remote sensing and GIS: Foundations of an expert system. Ecol Model 144:163-179
30. Moss RH, Schneider SH (2000) Uncertainties in the IPCC TAR: recommendations to lead authors for more consistent assessment and reporting. In: Pachauri R, Taniguchi T, Tanaka K (eds) Guidance papers on the cross cutting issues of the Third Assessment Report of the IPCC, World Meteorological Organization, Geneva, pp 33-51
31. Phillis YA, Andriantiatsaholiniaina LA (2001) Sustainability: an ill-defined concept and its assessment using fuzzy logic. Ecol Econ 37:435-456
32. Pongrácz R, Bogardi I, Duckstein L (2003) Climatic forcing of droughts: a Central European example. Hydrol Sci J 48:39-50
33. Prato T (2003) Multiple attribute evaluation of ecosystem management for the Missouri River. Ecol Econ 45:297-309
34. Prato T (2005a) Accounting for uncertainty in making species protection decisions. Cons Biol 19:806-814
35. Prato T (2005b) Bayesian adaptive management of ecosystems. Ecol Mod 183:147-156
36. Prato T (2007) Assessing ecosystem sustainability and management using fuzzy logic. Ecol Econ (in press)
37. Reilly J, Stone PH, Forest CE, Webster MD, Jacoby HD, Prinn RG (2001) Climate change-uncertainty and climate change assessments. Science 293:430-433
38. Root KV, Akcakaya HR, Ginzburg L (2003) A multispecies approach to ecological valuation and conservation. Conserv Biol 17:1523-1739
39. Salles P, Bredeweg B (2006) Modelling population dynamics with qualitative reasoning. Ecol Model 195:114-128
40. Schneider SH (2001) What is 'dangerous' climate change? Nature 411:17-19
41. Schneider SH (2002) Can we estimate the likelihood of climatic changes at 2100? Clim Change 52:441-451
42. Schneider SH (2006) Global climate change. Newsletter, International Society for Ecological Economics, July
43. Schneider SH, Kuntz-Duriseti K (2002) Uncertainty and climate change policy (chapter 2). In: Schneider SH, Rosencranz A, Niles JO (eds) Climate change policy: a survey, Island Press, Washington, DC, pp 53-87
44. Silvert W (1997) Ecological impact classification with fuzzy sets. Ecol Model 96:1-10
45. Silvert W (2000) Fuzzy indices of environmental conditions. Ecol Model 130:111-119
46. Smit B, McNabb D, Smithers J (1996) Agricultural adaptation to climate change. Clim Change 33:7-29
47. Smit B, Burton I, Klein RJT, Street R (1999) The science of adaptation: A framework for assessment. Mitig Adapt Strat Global Change 4:199-213
48. Smit B, Skinner MW (2002) Adaptation options in agriculture to climate change: a typology. Mitig Adapt Strat Global Change 7:85-114
49. Spittlehouse DL, Stewart RB (2003) Adaptation to climate change in forest management. BC J Ecosys Manage 4:7-17 http://www.forrex.org/jem/ archiveVol4iss1.asp. Cited 31 October 2006
50. Stewart RB, Wheaton E, Spittlehouse DL (1998) Climate change: implications for the boreal forest. In: Legge AH, Jones LL (eds) Emerging air issues for the 21st century: the need for multidisciplinary management. Air and Waste Manage Assoc, Pittsburg, Pennsylvania, pp 86-101
51. Thompson, W (no date) Be very cautious of the precautionary principle. http://www.rinconpublishing.com/white_papers/precautionary_principle.html. Cited 20 December 2005
52. United Nations (1992) Report of the United Nations Conference on Environment and Development, Annex 1, Rio Declaration on Environment and Development, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, 3-14, June
53. United States Department of Agriculture (2006) APEX Fact Sheet, 2006, Agricultural Policy/Environmental eXtender, Agricultural Research Service, Temple, Texas. http://www.brc.tamus.edu/apex/index.html Cited 23, October 2006
54. Walther G-R, Post E, Convey P, Menzel A, Parmesan C, Beebee TJC, Fromentin JM, Hoegh-Guldberg O, Bairlein F (2002) Ecological responses to recent climate change. Nature 416:389-395