Revised prediction of seasonal Atlantic basin tropical cyclone activity from 1 August

Weather and Forecasting

Volumn 22, Issue 5, 2007, Pages 937-949

  Klotzbach, Philip J ^a  

^a Engineering Research Center and Hydraulics Laboratory   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

ATMOSPHERIC MOVEMENTS; DROUGHT; OCEANOGRAPHY; RAIN; STATISTICAL METHODS; STORMS; UPPER ATMOSPHERE;

EL NINO-SOUTHERN OSCILLATION; QUASI-BIENNIAL OSCILLATION; SEA LEVEL PRESSURE;

WEATHER FORECASTING;

CLIMATE PREDICTION; DATA SET; EL NINO-SOUTHERN OSCILLATION; HURRICANE; QUASI-BIENNIAL OSCILLATION; RAINFALL; SEA LEVEL PRESSURE; SEASONAL VARIATION; STRATOSPHERE; TESTING METHOD; TROPICAL CYCLONE; VARIANCE ANALYSIS; WEATHER FORECASTING; ZONAL WIND;

ATLANTIC OCEAN;

EID: 35948931071     PISSN: 08828156     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1175/WAF1045.1     Document Type: Article

References (32)

1. Basnett, T., and D. Parker, 1997: Development of the global mean sea level pressure data set GMSLP2. Climate Research Tech. Note 79, Hadley Centre Met Office, Exeter, United Kingdom, 16 pp.
2. Bell, G. D., and M. Chelliah, 2006: Leading tropical modes associated with interannual and multidecadal fluctuations in North Atlantic hurricane activity. J. Climate, 19, 590-612.
3. Blake, E. S., and W. M. Gray, 2004: Prediction of August Atlantic basin hurricane activity. Wea. Forecasting, 19, 1044-1060.
4. DeMaria, M., J. A. Knaff, and B. H. Connell, 2001: A tropical cyclone genesis parameter for the North Atlantic. Wea. Forecasting, 16, 219-233.
5. Elsner, J. B., 2003: Tracking hurricanes. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 84, 353-356.
6. Elsner, J. B., and C. P. Schmertmann, 1994: Assessing forecast skill through cross validating. Wea. Forecasting, 9, 619-624.
7. Goldenberg, S. B., and L. J. Shapiro, 1996: Physical mechanisms for the association of El Niño and west African rainfall with Atlantic major hurricane activity. J. Climate, 9, 1169-1187.
8. Goldenberg, S. B., C. W. Landsea, A. M. Mestas-Nuñez, and W. M. Gray, 2001: The recent increase in Atlantic hurricane activity: Causes and implications. Science, 293, 474-479.
9. Gray, W. M., 1968: Global view of the origin of tropical disturbances and storms. Mon. Wea. Rev., 96, 669-700.
10. Gray, W. M., 1984: Atlantic seasonal hurricane frequency. Part II: Forecasting its variability. Mon. Wea. Rev., 112, 1669-1683.
11. Gray, W. M., C. W. Landsea, P. W. Mielke, and K. J. Berry, 1992: Predicting Atlantic seasonal hurricane activity 6-11 months in advance. Wea. Forecasting, 7, 440-455.
12. Gray, W. M., C. W. Landsea, P. W. Mielke, and K. J. Berry, 1993: Predicting Atlantic basin seasonal tropical cyclone activity by 1 August. Wea. Forecasting, 8, 73-86.
13. Gray, W. M., C. W. Landsea, P. W. Mielke, and K. J. Berry, 1994: Predicting Atlantic basin seasonal tropical cyclone activity by 1 June. Wea. Forecasting, 9, 103-115.
14. Gray, W. M., J. D. Sheaffer, and C. W. Landsea, 1997: Climate trends associated with multi-decadal variability of Atlantic hurricane activity. Hurricanes: Climate and Socioeconomic Impacts, H. F. Diaz and R. S. Pulwarty, Eds., Springer-Verlag, 15-53.
15. Gray, W. M., C. W. Landsea, E. S. Blake, P. W. Mielke, and K. J. Berry, 2001: Updated early August forecast of Atlantic seasonal hurricane activity and U.S. landfall strike probability for 2001. Dept. of Atmospheric Science Rep., Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, 30 pp.
16. Hess, J. C., and J. B. Elsner, 1994: Historical developments leading to current forecast models of annual Atlantic hurricane activity. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 75, 1611-1622.
17. Jarvinen, B. R., C. J. Neumann, and M. A. S. Davis, 1984: A tropical cyclone data tape for the North Atlantic basin, 1886-1983: Contents, limitations, and uses. NOAA Tech. Memo. NWS NHC 22, Miami, FL, 21 pp.
18. Kalnay, E., and Coauthors, 1996: The NCEP/NCAR 40-Year Re-analysis Project. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 77, 437-471.
19. Kaplan, A., M. Cane, Y. Kushnir, A. Clement, M. Blumenthal, and B. Rajagopalan, 1998: Analyses of global sea surface temperature 1856-1991. J. Geophys. Res., 103, 567-589.
20. Kistler, R., and Coauthors, 2001: The NCEP-NCAR 50-Year Re-analysis: Monthly means CD-ROM and documentation. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 82, 247-267.
21. Klotzbach, P. J., and W. M. Gray, 2003: Forecasting September Atlantic basin tropical cyclone activity. Wea. Forecasting, 18, 1109-1128.
22. Klotzbach, P. J., and W. M. Gray, 2004: Updated 6-11-month prediction of Atlantic basin seasonal hurricane activity. Wea. Forecasting, 19, 917-934.
23. Knaff, J. A., 1997: Implications of summertime sea level pressure anomalies in the tropical Atlantic region. J. Climate, 10, 789-804.
24. Knaff, J. A., S. A. Seseske, M. DeMaria, and J. L. Demuth, 2004: On the influences of vertical wind shear on symmetrical tropical cyclone structure derived from AMSU. Mon. Wea. Rev., 132, 2503-2510.
25. Landsea, C. W., and W. M. Gray, 1992: The strong association between western Sahelian monsoon rainfall and intense Atlantic hurricanes. J. Climate, 5, 435-453.
26. Landsea, C. W., and Coauthors, 2004: The Atlantic hurricane database re-analysis project: Documentation for the 1851-1910 alterations and additions to the HURDAT database. Hurricanes and Typhoons: Past, Present and Future, R. J. Murnane and K.-B. Liu, Eds., Columbia University Press, 177-221.
27. Namias, J., 1973: Thermal communication between the sea surface and the lower troposphere. J. Phys. Oceanogr., 3, 373-378.
28. Pielke, R. A., Jr., and C. W. Landsea, 1998: Normalized hurricane damage in the United States: 1925-95. Wea. Forecasting, 13, 621-631.
29. Rayner, N. A., D. E. Parker, E. B. Horton, C. K. Folland, L. V. Alexander, D. P. Rowell, E. C. Kent, and A. Kaplan, 2003: Globally complete analyses of sea surface temperature, sea ice and night marine air temperature, 1871-2000. J. Geophys. Res., 108, 4407, doi:10.1029/2002JD002670.
30. Shapiro, L. J., and S. B. Goldenberg, 1998: Atlantic sea surface temperatures and tropical cyclone formation. J. Climate, 11, 578-590.
31. Simpson, R. H., 1974: The hurricane disaster potential scale. Weatherwise, 27, 169, 186.
32. Wilks, D. S., 1995: Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences: An Introduction. Academic Press, 464 pp.