Propagating uncertainty through prognostic carbon cycle data assimilation system simulations

Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres

Volumn 112, Issue 17, 2007, Pages

  Scholze, Marko ^a   Kaminski, Thomas ^b   Rayner, Peter ^c   Knorr, Wolfgang ^a   Giering, Ralf ^b  

^a UNIVERSITY OF BRISTOL   (United Kingdom)

^b FastOpt GmbH   (Germany)

^c LABORATOIRE DES SCIENCES DU CLIMAT ET DE L ENVIRONNEMENT   (France)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

ATMOSPHERIC COMPOSITION; CARBON; CARBON DIOXIDE; MATHEMATICAL MODELS; MATRIX ALGEBRA; TRANSPORT PROPERTIES; UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS;

CARBON CYCLE; CARBON DIOXIDE; CARBON FLUX; CLIMATE FORCING; DATA ASSIMILATION; SURFACE FLUX;

EID: 35748953760     PISSN: 01480227     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1029/2007JD008642     Document Type: Article

References (42)

1. Andres, R. J., G. Marland, I. Fung, and E. Matthews (1996), A 1° × 1° distribution of carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuel consumption and cement manufacture, 1050-1990, Global Biogeochem. Cycles, 10(3), 419-429.
2. Barrett, D. J. (1002), Steady state turnover time of carbon in the Australian terrestrial biosphere, Global Biogeochem. Cycles, 16(4), 1108, doi:10.1029/2002GB001 1860.
3. Brenkert, A. L. (1998), Carbon dioxide emission estimates from fossil-fuel burning, hydraulic cement production, and gas flaring for 1995 on a one degree grid cell basis, Carbon Dioxide Inf. Anal. Cent., Oak Ridge Natl. Lab., Oak Ridge, Tenn. (Available at http://cdiac.esd.ornl.gov/ndps/ndp058a.html).
4. Cox, P. M., R. A. Betts, C. D. Jones, S. A. Spall, And I. J. Totterdell (2000), Acceleration of global warming due to carbon-cycle feedbacks in a coupled climate model, Nature, 408, 184-187.
5. Cox, P. M., R. A. Betts, M. Collins, P. P. Harris, C. Huntingford, and C. D. Jones (2004), Amazonian forest diaback under climate-carbon projections for the 21st century, Theor. Appl. Climatol., 78, 137-156.
6. Dufresne, J.-L., P. Friedlingstein, M. Berthelot, L. Bopp, P. Ciais, L. Fairhead, H. Le Treut, and P. Monfray (2002), On the magnitude of positive feedback between future climate change and the carbon cycle, Geophys. Res. Lett., 29(10), 1405, doi:10.1029/2001GL013777.
7. Friedlingstein, P., J.-L. Dufresne, P. M. Cox, and P. Rayner (2003), How positive is the feedback between climate change and the carbon cycle?, Tellus, Ser. B, 55(2), 692-700, doi:10.1034/ j.1600-0560.2003.01461.x.
8. Friedlingstein, P., et al. (2006), Climate-carbon cycle feedback analysis: results from the C4MIp Model Intercomparison, J. Clim., 19, 3137-3353.
9. Fung, I., P. Rayner, and P. Friedlingstein (2000), Full-form earth system models: Coupled carbon-climate interaction experiment (the flying leap), IGBP Global Change Newsl., 41, 7-8.
10. Giering, R., and T. Kaminski (1998), Recipes for adjoint code construction, ACM Trans. Math. Software, 24(4), 437-474, doi:http://doi.acm.org/10.1145/293686.293695.
11. GLOBALVIEW-CO2 (2004), Cooperative Atmospheric Data Integration Project - Carbon dioxide [CD-ROM], Global Monit. Div., Earth Syst. Res. Lab., NOAA, Boulder, Colo. (Available at ftp://ftp.cmdl.noaa.gov/ccg/co2/GLOBALVIEW).
12. Heimann, M. (1995), The global atmospheric tracer model TM2, Tech. Rep. 10, Max-Planck-Inst. für Meteorol., Hamburg, Germany.
13. Houghton, R. A. (2003), Revised estimates of the annual net flux of carbon to the atmosphere from changes in land use and land management 1850-2000, Tellus, Ser. B, 55(2), 378-390.
14. Jones, C. D., and P. M. Cox (2005), On the significance of atmospheric CO2 growth rate anomalies in 2002-2003, Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L14816, doi:10.1020/2005GL023027.
15. Kaminski, T., and P. J. Rayner (2007), Assimilation and network design, in Observing the Continental Scale Greenhouse Gas Balance of Europe, edited by H. Dolman, A. Freibauer, and R. Valentini, Springer, New York, in press.
16. Kaminski, T., M. Heimann, and R. Giering (1999a), A coarse grid three dimensional global inverse model of the Atmospheric Mdrisport: 1. Adjoint model and Jacobian matrix, J. Geophys. Res., 104(D15), 18,535-18,553.
17. Kaminski, T., M. Heimann, and R. Giering (1999b), A coarse grid three dimensional global inverse model of the atmospheric transport: 2. Inversion of the transport of CO2 in the 1980s, J. Geophys. Res., 104(D15), 18,555-18,581.
18. Kaminski, T., P. Rayner, M. Heimann, and I. Enting (2001), On aggregation errors in atmospheric transport inversions, J. Geophys. Res., 106(D5), 4703-4716.
19. Kaminski, T., W. Knorr, P. Rayner, and M. Heimann (2002), Assimilating atmospheric data into a terrestrial biosphere model: A case study of the seasonal cycle, Global Biogeochem. Cycles, 16(4), 1066, doi:10.1029/2001GB001463.
20. Kaminski, T., R. Giering, M. Scholze, P. Rayner, and W. Knorr (2003), An example of an automatic differentiation-based modelling system, in Computational Science - ICCSA 2003, International Conference Montreal, Canada, May 2003, Proceedings, Part II, Lecture Notes in Computer Science, vol. 2668, edited by V. Kumar et al., pp. 95-104, Springer, Berlin.
21. Kaminski, T., R. Giering, and M. Voßbeck (2005), Efficient sensitivities for the spin-up phase, in Automatic Differentiation: Applications, Theory, and Implementations, edited by H. M. Biicker et al., pp. 283-291, Springer, New York.
22. Keeling, C. D., T. P. Whorf, M. Wahlen, and J. van der Plicht (1995), Interannual extremes in the rate of rise of atmospheric carbon dioxide since 1980, Nature, 375, 666-670.
23. Knorr, W. (2000), Annual and interannual CO2 exchanges of the terrestrial biosphere: Process-based simulations and uncertainties, Global Ecol. Biogeogr., 9(3), 225-252.
24. Knorr, W., and M. Heimann (2001), Uncertainties in global terrestrial biosphere modeling: 1. A comprehensive sensitivity analysis with a new photosynthesis and energy balance scheme, Global Biogeochem. Cycles, 15(1), 207-225.
25. Knorr, W., and J. Kattge (2005), Inversion of terrestrial biosphere model parameter values against eddy covariance measurements using Monte Carlo sampling, Global Change Biol., 11, 1333-1351.
26. Marland, G., T. A. Boden, and R. J. Andres (2006), Global, regional, and national CO2 emissions, in Trends: A Compendium of Data on Global Change, Carbon Dioxide Inf. Anal. Cent., Oak Ridge Nad. Lab., U.S. Dep. of Energy, Oak Ridge, Tenn.
27. Murphy, J. M., D. M. H. Sexton, D. N. Barnett, G. S. Jones, M. J. Webb, M. Collins, and D. A. Stainforth (2004), Quantification of modelling uncertainties in a large ensemble of climate change simulations, Nature, 430, 768-772.
28. Nijssen, B., R. Schnur, and D. Lettemnaier (2001), Retrospective estimation of soil moisture using the VIC land surface model, 1980-1993, J. Clim., 14(8), 1790-1808.
29. Prentice, I. C., et al. (2001), The carbon cycle and atmospheric carbon dioxide, in Climate Change 2001: The Scientific basis, edited by J. T. Houghton et al., chap. 3, pp. 183-237, Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, U. K.
30. Raddatz, T. J., C. Reick, W. Knorr, J. Kattge, E. Roeckner, R. Schnur, K.-G. Schnitzler, P. Wetzel, and J. Jungclaus (2007), Will the tropical land biosphere dominate the climate carbon cycle feedback during the 21st century?, Clim. Dyn., doi:10.1007/s00382-007-0247-8, in press.
31. Randerson, J. T., et al. (2002), Carbon isotope discrimination of arctic and boreal biomes inferred from remote atmospheric measurements and a biosphere-atmosphere model, Global Biogeochem. Cycles, 16(3), 1028, doi:10.1029/2001GB001435.
32. Rayner, P., M. Scholze, P. Friedlingstein, J.-L. Dufresne, T. Kaminski, W. Knorr, R. Giering, and H. Widmann (2005a), The fate of terrestrial carbon under climate change: Results from a CCDAS, poster presented at 7th Carbon Dioxide Conference, Clim. Monit. and Diagn. Lab., NOAA, Broomfield, Colo.
33. Rayner, P. J., M. Scholze, W. Knorr, T. Kaminski, R. Giering, and H. Widmann (2005b), Two decades of terrestrial carbon fluxes from a carbon cycle data assimilation system (CCDAS), Global Biogeochem. Cycles, 19, G132026, doi:10.1029/2004GB002254.
34. Scholze, M. (2003), Model studies on the response of the terrestrial carbon cycle on climate change and variability, Examensarbeit, Max-Planck-Inst. für Meteorol., Hamburg, Germany.
35. Scholze, M., P. Rayner, J. Kattge, W. Knorr, C. Rödenbeck, T. Kaminski, R. Giering, and H. Widmann (2005), Inferring fluxes of biomass buring from a global carbon cycle data assimilation system (CCDAS), poster presented at 7th Carbon Dioxide Conference, Clim. Monit. and Diagn. Lab., NOAA, Broomfield, Colo.
36. Smith, S. J., and J. A. Edwards (2006), The economic implications of carbon cycle uncertainty, Tellus, Ser. B, 58, 586-590.
37. Stainforth, D. A., et al. (2005), Uncertainty in predictions of the climate response to rising levels of greenhouse gases, Nature, 433, 403-406.
38. Takahashi, T., R. H. Wanninkhof, R. A. Feely, R. F. Weiss, D. W. Chipman, N. Bates, J. Olafsson, C. Sabine, and S. C. Sutherland (1999), Net sea-air CO2 flux over the global oceans: An improved estimate based on the sea-air pCO2 difference, paper presented at 2nd International CO2 in the Oceans Symposium, Cent. for Global and Environ. Res., Natl. Inst. for Environ. Stud., Tsukuba, Japan, 18-22 Jan.
39. Vukicevic, T., M. Steyskal, and M. Hecht (2001), Properties of advection algorithms in the context of variational data assimilation, Mon. Weather Rev., 129(5), 1221-1231.
40. Wang, Y. P., R. Leuning, H. Cleugh, and P. A. Coppin (2001), Parameter estimation in surface exchange models using non-linear inversion: How many parameters can w e estimate and which measurements are most useful?, Global Change Biol., 7, 495-510.
41. Wilson, M. F., and A. Henderson-Sellers (1985), A global archive of land cover and soils data for use in general-circulation climate models, J. Climatol., 5(2), 119-143.
42. Zaehle, S., S. Sitch, B. Smith, and F. Hatterman (2005), Effects of parameter uncertainties on the modeling of terrestrial biosphere dynamics, Global Biogeochem. Cycles, 19, GB3020, doi:10.1029/ 2004GB002395.