Forecasting precipitation for hydroelectric power management: How to exploit GCM's seasonal ensemble forecasts

International Journal of Climatology

Volumn 27, Issue 12, 2007, Pages 1691-1705

  García Morales, Marta Benito ^a   Dubus, Laurent ^a  

^a EDF R AND D   (France)

Author keywords

Downscaling; Hydroelectric power; Multi model probabilistic forecasts; Precipitation; Seasonal forecasts

Indexed keywords

CATCHMENTS; CLIMATOLOGY; HYDROELECTRIC POWER; LINEAR REGRESSION; PRECIPITATION (METEOROLOGY); SINGULAR VALUE DECOMPOSITION;

MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE FORECAST; MULTIPLE LINEAR REGRESSION; PRECIPITATION FORECAST; STATISTICAL DOWNSCALING MODEL;

WEATHER FORECASTING;

CATCHMENT; DOWNSCALING; ENSEMBLE FORECASTING; HYDROELECTRIC POWER; NUMERICAL MODEL; PRECIPITATION (CLIMATOLOGY); REGRESSION ANALYSIS;

EURASIA; EUROPE; FRANCE; WESTERN EUROPE;

EID: 35348971510     PISSN: 08998418     EISSN: 10970088     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1002/joc.1608     Document Type: Article

References (21)

1. Bretherton CS, Smith C, Wallace JM. 1992. An intercomparison of methods for finding coupled patterns in climate data. Journal of Climate 5: 541-560.
2. Cassou C, Terray L. 2001a. Oceanic forcing of the wintertime low frequency atmospheric variability in the North Atlantic European sector: A study with the ARPEGE model. Journal of Climate 14: 4266-4291.
3. Cassou C, Terray L. 2001b. Dual influence of Atlantic and Pacific SST anomalies on the North Atlantic/Europe winter climate. Geophysical Research Letters 28(16): 3195-3198.
4. Díez E, Primo C, García-Moya JA, Gutiérrez JM, Orfila B. 2005. Statistical and dynamical downscaling of precipitation over Spain from DEMETER forecasts. Tellus A 57(3): 409-423.
5. Drévillon M, Terray L, Rogel P, Cassou C. 2001. Mid latitude Atlantic SST influence on European winter climate variability in the NCEP Reanalysis. Climatic Dynamics 18: 331-344.
6. Fowler HJ, Blenkinsop S, Tebaldi C. Linking climate change modelling to impacts studies: recent advances in downscaling techniques for hydrological modelling. International Journal of Climatology this issue.
7. Frías MD, Fernández J, Sáenz J, Rodríguez-Puebla C. 2005 Operational predictability of monthly maximum temperature through the combined use of statistical downscaling and multi-model ensemble seasonal forecasts by the DEMETER project. Tellus A 57(3): 448-463.
8. Hewitt CD, Griggs DJ. 2004. Ensembles-based predictions of climate changes and their impacts. EOS 85: 566.
9. Hurrell JW. 1995. Decadal trends in the North Atlantic oscillation and relationships to regional temperature and precipitation. Science 269: 676-679.
10. Morse AP, Doblas-Reyes FJ, Hoshen MB, Hagedorn R, Palmer TN. 2005. A forecast quality assessment of an end-to-end probabilistic multi-model seasonal forecast system using a malaria model. Tellus A 57(3): 464.
11. Murphy JM. 1999. An evaluation of statistical and dynamical techniques for downscaling local climate. Journal of Climate 12(8): 2256-2284.
12. Obled C, Bontron G, Garcon R. 2002. Quantitative precipitation forecasts: a statistical adaptation of model outputs through an analogues sorting approach. Atmospheric Research 63(3-4): 448-463.
13. Palmer TN, Alessandri A, Andersen U, Cantelaube P, Déqué M, Doblas-Reyes FJ, Feddersen H, Graham R, Gualdi S, Guérémy JF, Hagedorn R, Hoshen M, Keenlyside N, Lazar A, Marletto V, Morse AP, Orfila B, Roget P, Terres JM, Thomson MC. 2004. Development of a European ensemble system for seasonal to inter-annual prediction (DEMETER). Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 85(6): 853-872.
14. Pavan V, Marchesi S, Morgillo A, Cacciamani C, Doblas-Reyes FJ. 2005. Downscaling of DEMETER winter seasonal hindcasts over Northern Italy. Tellus A 57(3): 424-434.
15. Persson A, Grazzini F. 2005. User Guide to ECMWF forecast products. ECMWF Meterological Bulletin M 3.2. http://www.ecmwf.int/products/ forecasts/guide/user_guide.pdf. Date of access 08/03/2006.
16. Robertson AW, Mechoso C, Kim Y. 2000. The influence of Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies on the North Atlantic Oscillation. Journal of Climate 13: 122-138.
17. von Storch H, Hewitson B, Mearns L. 2000. Review of empirical downscaling techniques. In Regional Climate Development under Global Warming, Iversen T, Høiskar BAK (eds), General Technical Report no 4. Conference Proceedings RegClim Spring Meeting, Jevnaker: Torbjørnrud, Norway; 29-46, 8-9 May 2000.
18. Uppala SM, Kållberg PW, Simmons AJ, Andrae U, da Costa Bechtold V, Fiorino M, Gibson JK, Haseler J, Hernandez A, Kelly GA, Li X, Onogi K, Saarinen S, Sokka N, Allan RP, Andersson E, Arpe K, Balmaseda MA, Beljaars ACM, van de Berg L, Bidlot J, Bormann N, Caires S, Chevallier F, Dethof A, Dragosavac M, Fisher M, Fuentes M, Hagemann S, Hólm E, Hoskins BJ, Isaksen L, Janssen PAEM, Jenne R, McNally AP, Mahfouf JF, Morcrette JJ, Rayner NA, Saunders RW, Simon P, Sterl A, Trenberth KE, Untch A, Vasiljevic D, Viterbo P, Woollen J. 2005. The ERA-40 re-analysis. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 131: 2961-3012, DOI: 10.1256/qj.04.176.
19. Widmann M. 2005. One-dimensional CCA and SVD, and their relationship to regression maps. Journal of Climate 18: 2785-2792.
20. Widmann M, Bretherton CS, Salathé EP Jr. 2003. Statistical precipitation downscaling over the northwestern United States using numerically simulated precipitation as a predictor. Journal of Climate 16: 799-816.
21. Wilks DS. 1995. Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences. Academic Press: San Diego, California.