A data-based regional scale autoregressive rainfall-runoff model: A study from the Odra River

Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment

Volumn 21, Issue 6, 2007, Pages 649-664

  Niedzielski, Tomasz ^a,b  

^a UNIVERSITY OF WROC AW   (Poland)

^b Polish Academy of Sciences   (Poland)

Author keywords

Forecasting; Hydrology; Multivariate autoregressive models; Odra River; Rainfall runoff modelling

Indexed keywords

FLOOD FORECASTING; GROUNDWATER; HYDROLOGY; MULTIVARIATE ANALYSIS; PRECIPITATION (CLIMATOLOGY); RAINFALL-RUNOFF MODELING; REGRESSION ANALYSIS; RIVER DISCHARGE; SNOW COVER; TRIBUTARY;

CENTRAL EUROPE; EURASIA; EUROPE; ODER RIVER;

EID: 34648837342     PISSN: 14363240     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1007/s00477-006-0077-y     Document Type: Article

References (33)

1. Akaike H (1971) Autoregressive model ftting for control. Ann I Stat Math 23:163-180
2. Bennett RJ (1979) Spatial time series. Pion, London
3. Beven KJ (2000) Uniqueness of place and process representations in hydrological modelling. Hydrol Earth Syst Sc 4:203-213
4. Beven KJ (2001) Rainfall-Runoff Modelling. Wiley, Chichester
5. Brockwell PJ, Davis RA (1996) Introduction to time series and forecasting. Springer, Berlin Heidelberg New York
6. Butts MB, Overgaard J, Viaene P, Dubicki A, Strońska K, Szalinska W, Lewandowski A, Olszewski T, Kolerski T (2005) Flexible process-based hydrological modelling framework for flood forecasting-MIKE SHE. In: Proceedings of the International Conference "Innovation, advances and implementation of flood forecasting technology" Tromsø, Norway, 17-19 October 2005
7. Dawson CW, Wilby RL (2001) Hydrological modelling using artificial neural networks. Prog Phys Geog 25:80-108
8. De Roo A, Schmuck G, Perdigao V, Thielen J (2003) The influence of historic land use changes and future planned land use scenarios on floods in the Oder catchment. Phys Chem Earth 28:1291-1300
9. Dubicki A (1979) Charakterystyka przyczyn, przebiegu i wielkoścI powodzi w O977 roku na obszarze górNego i środkowego dorzecza Odry. InK Jahn A, Kowaliński S (eds) PowWódŹ w 1977 roku i jej skutki na Dolnym ŚlA̧sku. PAN Oddział we Wrocławiu Komisja Nauk o Ziemi, Wrocław, pp 27-40
10. Dubicki A, Słta H, ZielińsKi J (eds) (1999) Monografia powodzi lipiec 1997-Dorzecze Odry, IMGW, Warszawa
11. Elek P, Márkus L (2004) A long range dependent model with nonlinear innovations for simulating daily river flows. Nat Hazard Earth Sys 4:277-283
12. Faganello E, Attewill L (2005) Flood management strategy for the upper and middle Odra River Basin: Feasibility study of Raciborz Reservoir. Nat Hazards 36:273-295
13. Ground water hydrological yearbook (yearbook of 1982), Wydawnictwa Geologiczne, Warszawa (in Polish)
14. Ground water hydrological yearbook (yearbooks of 1972-1981), Wydawnictwa Komunikacji i ła̧czności, Warszawa (in Polish)
15. Hydrological yearbook of surface waters, the Oder basin and the rivers of the coast region between the Oder and the Vistula (yearbooks of 1972-1981), Wydawnictwa Komunikacji i ła̧czności, Warszawa (in Polish)
16. Hydrological yearbook of surface waters, the Oder basin and the rivers of the coast region between the Oder and the Vistula (yearbook of 1982), Wydawnictwa Geologiczne, Warszawa (in Polish)
17. Laio F, Porporato A, Revelli R, Ridolfi L (2003) A comparison of nonlinear flood forecasting methods. Water Resour Res 39: 1129, doi:10.1029/2002WR001551
18. Lardies J (1996) Analysis of a multivariate autoregressive process. Mech Syst Signal Pr 10:747-761
19. Ledolter J (1978a) A general class of stochastic models for hydrologic sequences. J Hydrol 36:309-325
20. Ledolter J (1978b) The analysis of multivariate time series applied to problems in hydrology. J Hydrol 36:327-352
21. Maier HR, Dandy GC (1997) Determining inputs for neural network models of multivariate time series. Microcomput Civ Eng 12:353-368
22. Maier HR, Dandy GC (2000) Neural networks for the prediction and forecasting of water resources variables: A review of modelling issues and applications. Environ Modell Softw 15:101-124
23. McCuen RH (2003) Modeling hydrologic change-statistical methods. Lewis Publishers, Boca Raton
24. Neumaier A, Schneider T (2001) Estimation of parameters and eigenmodes of multivariate autoregressive models. ACM T Math Software 27:27-57
25. Niedzielski T, Czystołowski M (2005) Pointwise forecast of water levels based upon the multivariate time series analysis: Case study from the Odra River (in SW Poland). In: Vrijling JK, Ruijgh E, Stalenberg B, Van Gelder PHAJM, Verlaan M, Zijderveld A, Waarts P (eds) IAHR Congress Proceedings of the International Symposium on Stochastic Hydraulics 2005, IAHR, Madrid, pp 115-116 + full reviewed text on CD
26. Niedzielski T, Kosek W (2005) Multivariate stochastic prediction of the global mean sea level anomalies based on TOPEX/Poseidon satellite altimetry. Artif Satellites-J Planet Geod 40:185-198
27. Perron P (1988) Trends and random walks in macroeconomic time series. J Econ Dyn Control 12:297-332
28. Porporato A, Ridolfi L (2001) Multivariate nonlinear prediction of river flows. J Hydrol 248:109-122
29. Precipitation (yearbooks of 1971-1981) Wydawnictwa Komunikacji i ła̧czności, Warszawa (in Polish)
30. Reinsel GC (1997) Elements of multivariate time series analysis. Springer, Berlin Heidelberg New York
31. Schwarz G (1978) Estimating the dimension of a model. Ann Stat 6:461-464
32. Van Gelder PHAJM, Van Noortwijk JM, Duits MT (1999) Selection of probability distribution with a case study on extreme Oder River discharges. In: Safety and reliability 2:1475-1480. http://hydr.ct.tudelft.nl/wbk/public/gelder/homepg.htm
33. Vogel RM, Shallcross AL (1996) The moving blocks bootstrap versus parametric time series models. Water Resour Res 32:1875-1882