The low-fertility trap hypothesis: Forces that may lead to further postponement and fewer births in Europe

Vienna Yearbook of Population Research

Volumn , Issue , 2006, Pages 167-192

  Lutz, Wolfgang ^a,b   Skirbekk, Vegard ^b   Testa, Maria Rita ^a  

^a VIENNA INSTITUTE OF DEMOGRAPHY   (Austria)

^b INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR APPLIED SYSTEMS ANALYSIS   (Austria)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

EID: 34548793415     PISSN: 17284414     EISSN: 17285305     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: None     Document Type: Article

References (51)

1. Axinn, W. G., M. E. Clarkberg, and A. Thornton. 1994. "Family influences on family size preferences." Demography 31(1): 65-79.
2. Bankole A. 1995. "Desired fertility and fertility among the Yoruba of Nigeria: a study of couple preferences and subsequent fertility." Population Studies 49(2): 317-328.
3. Barber, J. and W. G. Axinn 1998. "The impact of parental pressure for grandchildren on young people's entry into cohabitation and marriage." Population Studies 52(2): 129-144.
4. Blossfeld, H.-P., E. Klijzing, M. Mills and K. Kurz (eds.) 2005. Globalization, Uncertainty and Youth in Society. London/New York: Routledge.
5. Bucht, B. 1996. "Mortality trends in developing countries: A survey." In: W. Lutz (ed.) The Future Population of the World. What Can We Assume Today? Revised Edition. London: Earthscan, pp. 133-148.
6. Cleland, J. and C. Scott. 1987. The World Fertility Survey - An Assessment. London: Oxford University Press.
7. Debelle, G. 2004. "Macroeconomic Implications of Rising Household Debt." BIS Working Papers 153. Basel, Switzerland: Bank for International Settlements.
8. Demeny, P. 2003. "Population policy dilemmas in Europe at the dawn of the twenty-first century." Population and Development Review 29: 1-28.
9. Easterlin, R. A. 1980. Birth and Fortune: The Impact of Numbers on Personal Welfare. New York: Basic Books.
10. ECB. 2003. :Σtructural factors in the EU housing market." Report. Frankfurt, Germany: European Central Bank.
11. Eurobarometer. 2005. "'Youth takes the floor.' Young Europeans' concerns and expectations as to the development of the European Union" Background note based of relevant findings from Eurobarometer Data. <>
12. Eurostat. 2005. New Cronos Database. Theme 3: Population and Social Conditions. <>
13. Fernández, R. and A. Fogli. 2005. "Fertility: The role of culture and family experience." NBER Working Paper 11569. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research.
14. Global Entrepreneurship Monitor. 2004. National Team Reports. <>
15. Goldstein, J., W. Lutz, and M. R. Testa. 2003. "The emergence of sub-replacement family size ideals in Europe." Population Research and Policy Review 22(5-6): 479-496.
16. Gordon, R. 1982. "Inflation, flexible exchange rates, and the natural rate of unemployment." In: M. Baily (ed.) Workers, Jobs and Inflation. Washington, D.C.: Brookings Institution, pp. 89-152.
17. Gottschalk, P. 2001. "What can we learn from the cohort size literature about the future demand for the greying baby boomers?" Manuscript, Roundtable on the Demand for Older Workers, The Brookings Institution, <>
18. Hagewen, K. K. and P. S. Morgan. 2005. "Intended and ideal family size in the United States, 1970-2002." Population and Development Review 31(3): 507-527.
19. Iacoviello, M. 2005. "Household Debt and Income Inequality, 1963-2003." Mimeo. Boston, MA: Boston College.
20. Jimeno, J. and D. Rodriguez-Palenzuela. 2002. :outh unemployment in the OECD: demographic shifts, labour market institutions, and macroeconomic shocks." ECB Working Paper 155. Frankfurt, Germany: European Central Bank.
21. Korenman, S. and D. Neumark. 2000. "Cohort crowding and youth labor markets: A cross-national analysis.:In: D. G. Blanchflower and R. B. Freeman (eds.) Youth Employment and Joblessness in Advanced Countries. National Bureau of Economic Research - Comparative Labor Markets Series. Chicago: Chicago University Press, pp. 57-106.
22. Lee, R. 1980. "Aiming at a moving target: Period fertility and changing reproductive goals." Population Studies 34: 205-226.
23. Lutz, W. 2006. "Alternative paths for future European fertility: Will the birth rate recover or continue to decline?" In: W. Lutz, R. Richter, and C. Wilson (eds.) The New Generations of Europeans. Demography and Families in the Enlarged European Union. London: Earthscan.
24. Lutz, W. and V. Skirbekk. 2005. "Policies addressing the tempo effect in low-fertility countries." Population and Development Review 31(4): 699-720.
25. Lutz, W., B. C. O'Neill, and S. Scherbov. 2003. "Europe's population at a turning point." Science 299: 1991-1992
26. Martin, L. G. and N. Ogawa. 1988. "The effect of cohort size on relative wages in Japan." In: R. D. Lee, W. B. Arthur, and G. Rodgers (eds.) Economics of Changing Age Distributions in Developed Countries. London: Oxford University Press, pp. 59-75.
27. McDonald, P. 2006. "An assessment of policies that support having children from the perspectives of equity, efficiency and efficacy." Vienna Yearbook of Population Research 2006: 213-234.
28. McDonald, P. 2005. "Low Fertility in Singapore: Causes, Consequences and Policies." Paper presented at the Forum on Population and Development in East Asia, Beijing, May 16-17, 2005.
29. Murphy, M. 1999. "Is the relationship between parents and children really weak?:Social Biology 46(1-2): 122-145.
30. OECD. 1998. "Work force ageing in OECD countries." In: OECD Employment Outlook. Paris: Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, pp. 123-150.
31. OECD. 2001. "Labor Market Statistics." CD-Rom. Paris: Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development.
32. Oeppen, J. and J. Vaupel. 2002. "Broken limits to life expectancy." Science 296: 1029-1031.
33. PRB. 2005. "World Population Data Sheet of the Population Reference Bureau." Washington, D.C. <>
34. Preston, S. H. 1984. "Children and the elderly: Divergent paths for America's dependents." Demography 21(4): 435-457.
35. Rindfuss, R., M. K. Choe, L. L. Bumpass, and N. O. Tsuya. 2004. "Social networks and family change in Japan." American Sociological Review 69(6): 838-861.
36. SCB (Statistiska Centralbyrån). 2005. Young Adults in Swedish Society. Levnadsförhållanden Report 108. Stockholm: Statistics Sweden.
37. Shimer, R. 2001. "The impact of young workers on the aggregate labor market." Quarterly Journal of Economics 116: 969-1007.
38. Shimer, R. 1998. "Why is the US unemployment rate so much lower?" NBER Macroeconomic Journal, Vol. 13. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research.
39. Skans, O. N. 2005. "Age effects in Swedish local labor markets." Economics Letters 86(3): 419-426.
40. Statistics Norway. 2005. "Årlig nasjonalregnskap fra 1970 til 2004" [Annual National Accounts 1970 to 2004]. Available at <> Website accessed 21.12.05.
41. Stutzer, A. 2004. "The role of income aspirations in individual happiness." Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization 54(1): 89-109.
42. Tan P. C. and N. P. Tey. 1994. "Do fertility intentions predict subsequent behavior? Evidence from Peninsular Malaysia." Studies in Family Planning 25(4): 222-231.
43. Testa, M. R. and L. Grilli. 2006. "The influence of childbearing regional contexts on ideal family size in Europe: A multilevel analysis." Forthcoming in Population.
44. UN. 2005. World Population Prospects. The 2004 Revision. New York: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division.
45. UN. 2004. World Population to 2300. New York: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division.
46. UN. 1999. World Population Prospects. The 1998 Revision. New York: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division.
47. Van de Kaa, D. 2006. "temporarily new: on low fertility and the prospect of pro-natal policies.:Vienna Yearbook of Population Research 2006: 193-211.
48. Van Peer, C. 2002. "Desired and achieved fertility." In: E. Klijzing and M.Corijn (eds.) Dynamics of Fertility and Partnership in Europe: Insights and Lessons from Comparative Research, Vol. 2. New York and Geneva: United Nations, pp. 117-141.
49. Vogel, J. and G. Råbåck. 2004. Materiell ojämlikhet i tids- och internationellt perspektiv. (Material inequality over time and across countries). Chapter 4 in Levnadsförhållanden Report 100. Stockholm: Statistics Sweden.
50. Westoff, C. and A. Bankole. 2002. "Reproductive Preferences in Developing Countries at the Turn of the Century.:Comparative Reports (CR) 2. Calverton, USA: Demographic and Health Surveys.
51. Wilson, C. 2004. "Fertility below replacement level." Science 5668: 207-209.