An investigation into the extent of uncertainty surrounding estimates of the impact of HIV/AIDS in South Africa

South African Journal of Science

Volumn 103, Issue 3-4, 2007, Pages 135-140

  Johnson, Leigh F ^a   Dorrington, Rob E ^a   Matthews, Alan P ^b  

^a UNIVERSITY OF CAPE TOWN   (South Africa)

^b UNIVERSITY OF KWAZULU NATAL   (South Africa)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

ACQUIRED IMMUNE DEFICIENCY SYNDROME; DEMOGRAPHY; DEVELOPING WORLD; EPIDEMIOLOGY; ESTIMATION METHOD; HUMAN IMMUNODEFICIENCY VIRUS; PUBLIC HEALTH;

AFRICA; SOUTH AFRICA; SOUTHERN AFRICA; SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA;

HUMAN IMMUNODEFICIENCY VIRUS;

EID: 34548650401     PISSN: 00382353     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: None     Document Type: Article

References (46)

1. Statistics South Africa (2005). Mid-year population estimates, South Africa, 2005. Online: http://www.statssa.gov.za
2. Department of Health (2005). National HIV and syphilis antenatal sero-prevalence survey in South Africa 2004. Online: http://www.doh.gov.za/ docs/reports/2004/hiv-syphilis.pdf
3. Blower S. M. and Dowlatabadi H. (1994). Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of complex models of disease transmission: an HIV model, as an example. Int. Stat. Rev. 62(2), 229-243.
4. Blower S.M., Gershengorn H.B. and Grant R.M. (2000). A tale of two futures: HIV and antiretroviral therapy in San Francisco. Science 287, 650-654.
5. Davenport M.P., Ribeiro R.M., Chao D.L. and Perelson A.S. (2004). Predicting the impact of a nonsterilizing vaccine against human immunodeficiency virus. J. Virol. 78(20), 11340-11351.
6. Law M.G., Prestage G., Grulich A., Van de Ven P. and Kippax S. (2001). Modelling the effects of combination antiretroviral treatments on HIV incidence. AIDS 15, 1287-1294.
7. Boily M., Bastos F.I., Desai K. and Mâsse B. (2004). Changes in the transmission dynamics of the HIV epidemic after the wide-scale use of antiretroviral therapy could explain increases in sexually transmitted infections. Sex. Transm. Dis. 31(2), 100-113.
8. Grassly N.C., Morgan M., Walker N., Garnett G., Stanecki K.A., Stover J., Brown T. and Ghys P.D. (2004). Uncertainty in estimates of HIV/AIDS: the estimation and application of plausibility bounds. Sex. Transm. Infect. 80 (Suppl. 1), i31-38.
9. Salomon J.A. and Murray C.J. (2001). Modelling HIV/AIDS epidemics in sub-Saharan Africa using seroprevalence data from antenatal clinics. Bull. WHO 79(7), 596-607.
10. Greenland S. (2000). Principles of multilevel modelling. Int. J. Epidemiol. 29(1), 158-167.
11. Gilks W.R., De Angelis D. and Day N.E. (1999). Bayesian conditional-independence modeling of the AIDS epidemic in England and Wales. Physica D 133(1-4), 145-151.
12. Tan W.Y. and Ye Z.Z. (2000). Estimation of HIV infection and incubation via state space models. Math. Biosci. 167(1), 31-50.
13. Alkema L., Raftery A.E. and Clark S.J. (2007). Probabilistic projections of HIV prevalence using Bayesian melding. Centre for Studies in Demography and Ecology, University of Washington. Working paper no. 07-01. Online: http://csde.washington.edu/downloads/07-01.pdf
14. Johnson L.F. and Dorrington R.E. (2006). Modelling the demographic impact of HIV/AIDS in South Africa and the likely impact of interventions. Demographic Res. 14, 541-74.
15. Actuarial Society of South Africa (2004). ASSA2002 AIDS and Demographic Model. Online: http://www.assa.org.za/default.asp?id=1000000050
16. Johnson L.F., Dorrington R.E. and Matthews A. (2006). An uncertainty analysis and sensitivity analysis of the ASSA2002 AIDS and Demographic model. Centre for Actuarial Research, University of Cape Town. Working paper. Online: http://www.commerce.uct.ac.za/Research_Units/CARE/
17. Statistics South Africa (2005). Mortality and causes of death in South Africa, 1997-2003: Findings from death notification. Online: http://www.statssa.gov.za
18. Connolly C., Shisana O., Colvin M. and Stoker D. (2004). Epidemiology of HIV in South Africa - results of a national, community-based survey. S. Afr. Med. J. 94(9), 776-781.
19. Shisana O., Rehle T., Simbayi L.C., Parker W., Zuma K., Bhana A., Connolly C., Jooste S. and Pillay V. (2005). South African National HIV Prevalence, HIV Incidence, Behaviours and Communication Survey, 2005. HSRC Press, Cape Town. Online: http://www.hsrcpress.ac.za
20. Pettifor A.E., Rees H.V., Kleinschmidt I., Steffenson A.E., Macphail C., Hlongwa-Madikizela L., Vermaak K. and Padian N.S. (2005). Young people's sexual health in South Africa: HIV prevalence and sexual behaviors from a nationally representative household survey. AIDS 19(14), 1525-1534.
21. Beven K. and Binley A. (1992). The future of distributed models - model calibration and uncertainty prediction. Hydrol. Process. 6(3), 279-298.
22. Smith A.F.M. and Gelfand A.E. (1992). Bayesian statistics without tears - a sampling resampling perspective. Am. Stat. 46(2), 84-88.
23. Boerma J.T., Ghys P.D. and Walker N. (2003). Estimates of HIV-1 prevalence from national population-based surveys as a new gold standard. Lancet 362(9399), 1929-1931.
24. Timæus I.M. and Jasseh M. (2004). Adult mortality in sub-Saharan Africa: evidence from Demographic and Health Surveys. Demography 41(4), 757-772.
25. Porter K. and Zaba B. (2004). The empirical evidence for the impact of HIV on adult mortality in the developing world: data from serological studies. AIDS 18 (Suppl. 2), S9-S17.
26. Glynn J.R., Sonnenberg P., Nelson G., Bester A., Shearer S. and Murray J. (2005). The effect of HIV on adult mortality: evidence from a large cohort of South African gold-miners with known dates of seroconversion and 10 years of follow-up. International Union for the Scientific Study of Population Conference, Tours, France, 18-23 July 2005.
27. Maartens G., Wood R., O'Keefe E. and Byrne C. (1997). Independent epidemics of heterosexual and homosexual infection in South Africa - survival differences. Q. J. Med. 90, 449-454.
28. Peeters M., Toure-Kane C. and Nkengasong J.N. (2003). Genetic diversity of HIV in Africa: impact on diagnosis, treatment, vaccine development and trials. AIDS 17, 2547-2560.
29. Ball S.C., Abraha A., Collins K.R., Marozsan A.J., Baird H., Quinones-Mateu M.E., Penn-Nicholson A., Murray M., Richard N., Lobritz M., Zimmerman P.A., Kawamura T., Blauvelt A. and Arts E.J. (2003). Comparing the ex vivo fitness of CCR5-tropic human immunodeficiency virus type 1 isolates of subtypes B and C. J. Virol. 77(2), 1021-1038.
30. Quiñones-Mateu M.E. (2005). Is HIV-1 evolving to a less virulent (pathogenic) virus? AIDS 19(15), 1689-1690.
31. Badri M., Bekker L.G., Orrell C., Pitt J., Cilliers F. and Wood R. (2004). Initiating highly active antiretroviral therapy in sub-Saharan Africa: an assessment of the revised World Health Organization scaling-up guidelines. AIDS 18(8), 1159-1168.
32. Heuveline P. (2003). HIV and population dynamics: a general model and maximum-likelihood standards for East Africa. Demography 40(2), 217-245.
33. Zaba B. and Gregson S. (1998). Measuring the impact of HIV on fertility in Africa. AIDS 12 (Suppl. 1), S41-S50.
34. Lewis J.J.C., Ronsmans C., Ezeh A. and Gregson S. (2004). The population impact of HIV on fertility in sub-Saharan Africa. AIDS 18 (Suppl. 2), S35-S43.
35. Gregson S., Terceira N., Kakowa M., Mason P., Anderson R., Chandiwana S. and Caraël M. (2002). Study of bias in antenatal clinic HIV-1 surveillance data in a high contraceptive prevalence population in sub-Saharan Africa. AIDS 16, 643-652.
36. Moultrie T.A. and Timaeus I.M. (2003). The South African fertility decline: evidence from two censuses and a Demographic and Health Survey. Pop. Stud. 57(3), 265-283.
37. UNAIDS (2006). 2006 Report on the global AIDS epidemic. Online: http://www.unaids.org/en/HIV_data/2006GlobalReport/default.asp
38. Morgan M., Walker N., Gouws E., Stanecki K.A. and Stover J. (2006). Improved plausibility bounds about the 2005 HIV and AIDS estimates. Sex. Transm. Infect. 82 (suppl. 3), iii71-7.
39. Poole D. and Raftery A.E. (2000). Inference for deterministic simulation models: the Bayesian melding approach. J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 95(452), 1244-1255.
40. Furber A.S., Maheswaran R., Newell J.N. and Carroll C. (2007). Is smoking tobacco an independent risk factor for HIV infection and progression to AIDS? A systemic review. Sex. Transm. Infect. 83(1), 41-46.
41. Simbayi L.C., Kalichman S.C., Jooste S., Mathiti V., Cain D. and Cherry C. (2004). Alcohol use and sexual risks for HIV infection among men and women receiving sexually transmitted infection clinic services in Cape Town, South Africa. J. Stud. Alcohol. 65(4), 434-442.
42. Shisana O., Zungu-Dirwayi N., Toefy Y., Simbayi L.C., Malik S. and Zuma K. (2004). Marital status and risk of HIV infection in South Africa. S. Afr. Med. J. 94(7), 537-543.
43. Evian C., Fox M., MacLeod W., Slotow S.J. and Rosen S. (2004). Prevalence of HIV in workforces in southern Africa, 2000-2001. S. Afr. Med. J. 94(2), 125-130.
44. Hallman K. (2004). Socioeconomic disadvantage and unsafe sexual behaviors among young women and men in South Africa. Population Council, Policy Research Division. Working Paper no. 190.
45. Hoeting J.A., Madigan D., Raftery A.E. and Volinsky C.T. (1999). Bayesian Model Averaging: a tutorial. Stat. Sci. 14(4), 382-417.
46. Lutz W. and Goldstein J.R. (2004). Introduction: How to deal with uncertainty in population forecasting? Int. Stat. Rev. 72(1), 1-4.