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Volumn 16, Issue 3, 2007, Pages 319-349

Evaluating Israel's strategy of low-intensity warfare, 1949-2006

(1)  Maoz, Zeev a  

a NONE

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EID: 34548479944     PISSN: 09636412     EISSN: 15561852     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1080/09636410701547782     Document Type: Article
Times cited : (27)

References (176)
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    • Zeev Maoz,'Pacifism and Fightaholism in International Politics: A Structural History of National and Dyadic Conflict, 1816-1992, International Studies Review 6, no. 2 (December 2004): 107-133. Since that study was published, Israel initiated another war in Lebanon in the summer of 2006.
    • Zeev Maoz,"'Pacifism and Fightaholism in International Politics: A Structural History of National and Dyadic Conflict, 1816-1992," International Studies Review 6, no. 2 (December 2004): 107-133. Since that study was published, Israel initiated another war in Lebanon in the summer of 2006.
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    • The Mixed Blessing of Israel's Nuclear Policy
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    • paper, Cambridge, MA: Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Accessed 24 April
    • Doron Almog, "Cumulative Deterrence and the War on Terrorism", (paper, Cambridge, MA: Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs). http://bcsia.ksg.harvard.edu/person.cfm?item id=846&ln=fellow&program=ISP. Accessed 24 April 2007.
    • (2007) Cumulative Deterrence and the War on Terrorism
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    • The Israeli Strategy of Deterrence as a Model of Accumulated Deterrence
    • master's thesis, University of Haifa
    • Doron Almog, "The Israeli Strategy of Deterrence as a Model of Accumulated Deterrence" (master's thesis, University of Haifa, 1995)
    • (1995)
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    • Variations on a Theme: The Conceptualization of Deterrence in Israeli Strategic Thinking
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    • Uri Bar Joseph, "Variations on a Theme: The Conceptualization of Deterrence in Israeli Strategic Thinking," Security Studies 7, no. 3 (Spring 1998): 145-81.
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    • Clausewitz and Low Intensity Conflict
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    • Stuart Kinross, "Clausewitz and Low Intensity Conflict," Journal of Strategic Studies 27, no. 1 (March 2004): 36-37
    • (2004) Journal of Strategic Studies , vol.27 , Issue.1 , pp. 36-37
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  • 12
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    • Martin Van Creveld, The Transformation of War (New York: Free Press, 1991), 18-25. This is distinguished from High Intensity Conflict (HIC) operations which entail sustained and large scale clashes between significant formations of two or more military (or proto military) organizations.
    • Martin Van Creveld, The Transformation of War (New York: Free Press, 1991), 18-25. This is distinguished from High Intensity Conflict (HIC) operations which entail sustained and large scale clashes between significant formations of two or more military (or proto military) organizations.
  • 13
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    • United States Army, Field Manual 100-20-Low-Intensity Conflict (Washington, D.C.: Department of the Army, 1981), 1-1.
    • United States Army, Field Manual 100-20-Low-Intensity Conflict (Washington, D.C.: Department of the Army, 1981), 1-1.
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    • The Causes of Terrorism
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    • Martha Crenshaw, "The Causes of Terrorism," Comparative Politics 13, no. 4 (July 1981): 387
    • (1981) Comparative Politics , vol.13 , Issue.4 , pp. 387
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    • Walter Laqueur, The Age of Terrorism (Boston: Little Brown, 1987), 302-07
    • Walter Laqueur, The Age of Terrorism (Boston: Little Brown, 1987), 302-07
  • 17
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    • The Strategic Logic of Suicide Terrorism
    • August
    • Robert Pape, "The Strategic Logic of Suicide Terrorism," American Political Science Review 97, no. 3 (August 2003): 346
    • (2003) American Political Science Review , vol.97 , Issue.3 , pp. 346
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  • 18
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    • The Strategies of Terrorism
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    • Andrew H. Kydd and Barbara F. Walter, "The Strategies of Terrorism," International Security 31, no. 1 (Summer 2006): 50-51.
    • (2006) International Security , vol.31 , Issue.1 , pp. 50-51
    • Kydd, A.H.1    Walter, B.F.2
  • 26
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    • classify the goals of terrorists as regime change, territorial change, policy change, and status quo maintenance. However, these are more general objectives and it is not clear how terrorism is tied to these objectives, unless we connect to them the middle-range goals discussed above
    • Kydd and Walter, "The Strategies of Terrorism," 52-53 classify the goals of terrorists as regime change, territorial change, policy change, and status quo maintenance. However, these are more general objectives and it is not clear how terrorism is tied to these objectives, unless we connect to them the middle-range goals discussed above.
    • The Strategies of Terrorism , pp. 52-53
    • Kydd1    Walter2
  • 27
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    • Power Analysis and World Politics: New Trends versus Old Tendencies
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    • David A. Baldwin, "Power Analysis and World Politics: New Trends versus Old Tendencies," World Politics 31, no. 2 (January 1979): 161-94.
    • (1979) World Politics , vol.31 , Issue.2 , pp. 161-194
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  • 28
    • 34548477059 scopus 로고
    • Note that power asymmetry is not a necessary condition in LIC. Some states may choose to employ LIC as a strategy that is designed to limit warfare even if their power is equally matched. Wars of attrition may be of that sort. Even in such cases, the choice of attrition strategy by one side reflects a temporary weakness, and attrition is used to help the weaker side regroup and regain its strength
    • Yehoshafat Harkabi, War and Strategy [Hebrew] (Tel Aviv: Maarachot, 1991), 124-5. Note that power asymmetry is not a necessary condition in LIC. Some states may choose to employ LIC as a strategy that is designed to limit warfare even if their power is equally matched. Wars of attrition may be of that sort. Even in such cases, the choice of attrition strategy by one side reflects a temporary weakness, and attrition is used to help the weaker side regroup and regain its strength.
    • (1991) War and Strategy [Hebrew] (Tel Aviv: Maarachot , pp. 124-125
    • Harkabi, Y.1
  • 32
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    • Alex P. Schmidt and Ronald P. Crelinsten Eds, London: Frank Cass
    • Alex P. Schmidt and Ronald P. Crelinsten (Eds.) Western Responses to Terrorism (London: Frank Cass, 1993)
    • (1993) Western Responses to Terrorism
  • 34
    • 70350593747 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Current security
    • refers to attacks that entail limited violence and do not threaten existential values, the sovereignty, or territorial integrity of Israel
    • "Current security" refers to attacks that entail limited violence and do not threaten existential values, the sovereignty, or territorial integrity of Israel.
  • 35
    • 34548477767 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Basic security refers to major military threats to Israel's existence, its territorial integrity, or its Jewish character.
    • "Basic security" refers to major military threats to Israel's existence, its territorial integrity, or its Jewish character.
  • 40
    • 0003409590 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1993
    • Benny Morris, Israel's Border Wars, 1949-1956 (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1993).
    • (1949) Israel's Border Wars
    • Morris, B.1
  • 42
    • 34548478649 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • See Maoz, Defending the Holy Land, 231-97 for a historical overview of Israel's LIC experience over the 1949-2004 period. Tables on 269-71 provide a general summary of changes in the type of LIC-related challenges that Israel has faced at different points in time and the modal strategy it has chosen to confront these challenges.
    • See Maoz, Defending the Holy Land, 231-97 for a historical overview of Israel's LIC experience over the 1949-2004 period. Tables on 269-71 provide a general summary of changes in the type of LIC-related challenges that Israel has faced at different points in time and the modal strategy it has chosen to confront these challenges.
  • 43
    • 34548488326 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • There is no comprehensive study of Israel's LIC experience. Several sources cover elements of this strategy and portions of that experience. See Morris, Israel's Border Wars, and David Tal, The Current Security Conception of Israel: Its Origins and Development, 1949-1956 [Hebrew] (Sdeh Boker: Ben Gurion University Press, 1998) provide detailed histories of the 1948-56 period.
    • There is no comprehensive study of Israel's LIC experience. Several sources cover elements of this strategy and portions of that experience. See Morris, Israel's Border Wars, and David Tal, The Current Security Conception of Israel: Its Origins and Development, 1949-1956 [Hebrew] (Sdeh Boker: Ben Gurion University Press, 1998) provide detailed histories of the 1948-56 period.
  • 44
    • 34548497243 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Jonathan Shimshoni, Israel and Conventional Deterrence (Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 1988) discusses the 1949-70 period in the context of conventional deterrence theory.
    • Jonathan Shimshoni, Israel and Conventional Deterrence (Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 1988) discusses the 1949-70 period in the context of conventional deterrence theory.
  • 45
    • 34548479594 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Ranan D. Kuperman, Cycles of Violence: The Evolution of the Israeli Decision Regime Governing the Use of Limited Military Force (Lanham, MD: Lexington Press, 2005), and Kuperman, Rules of Military Retaliation and Their Practice by the State of Israel, International Interactions 27, no. 3 (September 2001): 297-326 focuses on the decision making processes governing Israeli reprisals over the 1949-82 period.
    • Ranan D. Kuperman, Cycles of Violence: The Evolution of the Israeli Decision Regime Governing the Use of Limited Military Force (Lanham, MD: Lexington Press, 2005), and Kuperman, "Rules of Military Retaliation and Their Practice by the State of Israel," International Interactions 27, no. 3 (September 2001): 297-326 focuses on the decision making processes governing Israeli reprisals over the 1949-82 period.
  • 46
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    • As of yet, there exist no studies of the guerrilla war in Southern Lebanon during the 1985-2000 period; nor are there systematic studies of Israel's anti-terrorism policy and its management of popular unrest and civil disobedience. Sources covering the first intifada of 1987-1992 include Zeev Schiff and Ehud Yaari, Intifada [Hebrew] (Tel-Aviv: Schocken, 1990)
    • As of yet, there exist no studies of the guerrilla war in Southern Lebanon during the 1985-2000 period; nor are there systematic studies of Israel's anti-terrorism policy and its management of popular unrest and civil disobedience. Sources covering the first intifada of 1987-1992 include Zeev Schiff and Ehud Yaari, Intifada [Hebrew] (Tel-Aviv: Schocken, 1990)
  • 49
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    • The Strategic Impasse in Low-Intensity Conflicts: The Gap Between the Israeli Counter-Insurgency Strategy and Tactics During the Al Aqsa Intifada
    • March, offers a useful discussion of Israel's strategies during the Al Aqsa Intifada
    • Sergio Catigiani, "The Strategic Impasse in Low-Intensity Conflicts: The Gap Between the Israeli Counter-Insurgency Strategy and Tactics During the Al Aqsa Intifada" Journal of Strategic Studies 28, no. 1 (March 2005): 57-75 offers a useful discussion of Israel's strategies during the Al Aqsa Intifada.
    • (2005) Journal of Strategic Studies 28, no. 1 , pp. 57-75
    • Catigiani, S.1
  • 52
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    • Ibid. Alson discusses Israel's anti-terrorism policy in the 1970s. Unfortunately, with the exception of Kuperman's studies there exist no systematic scholarly studies of the economics of Israel's anti-terrorist policies for later periods.
    • Ibid. Alson discusses Israel's anti-terrorism policy in the 1970s. Unfortunately, with the exception of Kuperman's studies there exist no systematic scholarly studies of the economics of Israel's anti-terrorist policies for later periods.
  • 54
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    • Hebrew, Tel Aviv: Am Oved
    • Yagil Levy, The Other Army of Israel [Hebrew] (Tel Aviv: Am Oved, 2003), 173-74, 418-20
    • (2003) The Other Army of Israel , vol.173 -74 , pp. 418-420
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  • 56
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    • Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, This is distinguishable from specific deterrence that is an attempt to fend off an imminent threat-typically in the context of a crisis
    • Patrick M. Morgan, Deterrence Now(Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2003), 8-26. This is distinguishable from specific deterrence that is an attempt to fend off an imminent threat-typically in the context of a crisis.
    • (2003) Deterrence , pp. 8-26
    • Morgan, P.M.1
  • 57
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    • Military Action During Peacetime
    • Hebrew, 14 and 21 September
    • Moshe Dayan, "Military Action During Peacetime," [Hebrew] Ba'Mahaneh, 14 and 21 September 1955.
    • (1955) Ba'Mahaneh
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  • 61
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    • The concept of escalation dominance in the jargon of nuclear strategy refers to a capability to top the level of damage inflicted by the enemy's capability or to top the enemy's level of accuracy in a counter-force nuclear strike. See
    • The concept of "escalation dominance" in the jargon of nuclear strategy refers to a capability to top the level of damage inflicted by the enemy's capability or to top the enemy's level of accuracy in a counter-force nuclear strike. See Morgan, Deterrence Now
    • Deterrence Now
    • Morgan1
  • 63
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    • and Robert Jervis, The Illogic of American Nuclear Strategy Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 1985, I extend this concept to refer to a behavioral doctrine that focuses both on capabilities and on demonstrated resolve in the service of general deterrence. 35Specific deterrence concerns a threat of retaliation if the challenger violates a specific aspect of the status quo, short of an all-out attack on the defender. Compellence concerns a policy of sustained, yet limited, use of force designed to induce the opponent to discontinue some actions it has been carrying out prior to and during the exercise of force by the compeller. Alternatively, a policy of compellence may be designed to force an opponent into doing something it has not been doing and which the compeller wants carried out
    • and Robert Jervis, The Illogic of American Nuclear Strategy (Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 1985). I extend this concept to refer to a behavioral doctrine that focuses both on capabilities and on demonstrated resolve in the service of general deterrence. 35Specific deterrence concerns a threat of retaliation if the challenger violates a specific aspect of the status quo, short of an all-out attack on the defender. Compellence concerns a policy of sustained, yet limited, use of force designed to induce the opponent to discontinue some actions it has been carrying out prior to and during the exercise of force by the compeller. Alternatively, a policy of compellence may be designed to force an opponent into doing something it has not been doing and which the compeller wants carried out.
  • 64
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    • See, New Haven, CT: Yale University Press
    • See Thomas C. Schelling, Arms and Influence (New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 1966)
    • (1966) Arms and Influence
    • Schelling, T.C.1
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    • Washington D.C, United States Institute of Peace, The distinction between compellence and deterrence is analytic in nature. In practice, it may be difficult to distinguish policies aimed at compellence from those aimed at deterrence. This applies to Israel's LIC strategies as well
    • Alexander L. George, Forceful Persuasion: Coercive Diplomacy as an Alternative to War (Washington D.C.: United States Institute of Peace, 1991). The distinction between compellence and deterrence is analytic in nature. In practice, it may be difficult to distinguish policies aimed at compellence from those aimed at deterrence. This applies to Israel's LIC strategies as well.
    • (1991) Forceful Persuasion: Coercive Diplomacy as an Alternative to War
    • George, A.L.1
  • 72
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    • Meeting in the Israeli Ministry of Foreign Affairs, 2 February 1953, quoted in Tal, The Current Security Conception of Israel, 68.
    • Meeting in the Israeli Ministry of Foreign Affairs, 2 February 1953, quoted in Tal, The Current Security Conception of Israel, 68.
  • 74
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    • Anthony Nutting, Nasser (New York: Dutton., 1972), 67.
    • (1972) Nasser , pp. 67
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  • 82
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    • The Samu raid had a major effect on Jordan's perceptions of Israel and its intentions and played key role in Jordan's decision to enter the Six Day War. See, New York: Cambridge University Press
    • The Samu raid had a major effect on Jordan's perceptions of Israel and its intentions and played key role in Jordan's decision to enter the Six Day War. See Samir A. Mutawi, Jordan in the 1967 War New York: Cambridge University Press, 2007), 76-84.
    • (2007) Jordan in the 1967 War , pp. 76-84
    • Mutawi, S.A.1
  • 85
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    • On the impact of this incident on Syria see, Berkeley and Los Angeles. University of California Press
    • On the impact of this incident on Syria see Patrick Seale, Asad: The Struggle for the Middle East (Berkeley and Los Angeles. University of California Press, 1988), 127-8.
    • (1988) Asad: The Struggle for the Middle East , pp. 127-128
    • Seale, P.1
  • 87
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    • Abd el Ghani Gamassy, The Ramadan War (Cairo: The American University in Cairo Press, 1993), 99.
    • Abd el Ghani Gamassy, The Ramadan War (Cairo: The American University in Cairo Press, 1993), 99.
  • 90
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    • David A. Korn, Stalemate: The War of Attrition and Great Power Diplomacy in the Middle East, 1967-1970 (Boulder, [s CO: S] Westview Press, 1992), 198, 233;
    • David A. Korn, Stalemate: The War of Attrition and Great Power Diplomacy in the Middle East, 1967-1970 (Boulder, [s CO: S] Westview Press, 1992), 198, 233;
  • 93
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    • Clarifying Decisions: Assessing the Impact of Decision Structures on Foreign Policy Choices during the 1970 Jordanian Civil War
    • December
    • Allison Astorino-Courtois, "Clarifying Decisions: Assessing the Impact of Decision Structures on Foreign Policy Choices during the 1970 Jordanian Civil War," International Studies Quarterly 42, no. 4 (December 1998): 733-54;
    • (1998) International Studies Quarterly , vol.42 , Issue.4 , pp. 733-754
    • Astorino-Courtois, A.1
  • 96
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    • Kuperman, Cycles of Violence, 107-08.
    • Kuperman, Cycles of Violence, 107-08.
  • 102
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    • On Hizballah's modus operandi during Israel's occupation of Southern Lebanon see
    • On Hizballah's modus operandi during Israel's occupation of Southern Lebanon see Harik, Hezbollah: The Changing Face of Terrorism, 111-16;
    • Hezbollah: The Changing Face of Terrorism , pp. 111-116
    • Harik1
  • 105
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    • Hizballah and the Israeli Withdrawal from Southern Lebanon
    • Autumn
    • and Augustus Richard Norton, "Hizballah and the Israeli Withdrawal from Southern Lebanon," Journal of Palestine Studies 30, no. 1 (Autumn, 2000): 29-30.
    • (2000) Journal of Palestine Studies , vol.30 , Issue.1 , pp. 29-30
    • Richard Norton, A.1
  • 106
    • 34548501838 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Can Israel Think Before Shooting?
    • 20 July, accessed 24 April
    • Zeev Maoz, "Can Israel Think Before Shooting?" Alternet, 20 July 2006, http://www.alternet.org/story/39237 (accessed 24 April 2007);
    • (2006) Alternet
    • Maoz, Z.1
  • 107
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    • How the Rebel Regained His Cause: Hizbullah and the Sixth Arab-Israeli War
    • x MIT Electronic Journal of Middle East Studies x] 6 Summer
    • Reinoud Leenders, "How the Rebel Regained His Cause: Hizbullah and the Sixth Arab-Israeli War," [x MIT Electronic Journal of Middle East Studies x] 6 (Summer 2006): 46-7.
    • (2006) , pp. 46-47
    • Leenders, R.1
  • 109
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    • Some scholars argued that Israel's overflights in Southern Lebanon provoked the Hizballah into the kidnapping of the Israeli soldiers in the summer of 2006, thus providing a convenient pretext for its large scale attack on Lebanon. This, however, is not supported by any evidence. See Virginia Tilley, Israel in Lebanon: The Foreign Policy Logics of Jewish Statehood, [x MIT Electronic Journal of Middle East Studies x] 6 (Summer 2006): 156.
    • Some scholars argued that Israel's overflights in Southern Lebanon provoked the Hizballah into the kidnapping of the Israeli soldiers in the summer of 2006, thus providing a convenient pretext for its large scale attack on Lebanon. This, however, is not supported by any evidence. See Virginia Tilley, "Israel in Lebanon: The Foreign Policy Logics of Jewish Statehood," [x MIT Electronic Journal of Middle East Studies x] 6 (Summer 2006): 156.
  • 110
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    • Dayan issued this directive to the [s IDF s] General Staff following a meeting with Ben Gurion. The directive is cited in Mordechai Bar-On, Challenge and Quarrel: The Road to Sinai, 1955-57 [Hebrew] (Beer-Sheva: Beer-Sheva University Press, 1991), 39-40;
    • Dayan issued this directive to the [s IDF s] General Staff following a meeting with Ben Gurion. The directive is cited in Mordechai Bar-On, Challenge and Quarrel: The Road to Sinai, 1955-57 [Hebrew] (Beer-Sheva: Beer-Sheva University Press, 1991), 39-40;
  • 114
    • 34548505873 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • See sources for data on number of operations and casualties in Maoz, Defending the Holy Land, 239, 245. See also section on Estimating Israeli Use of Limited Force below.
    • See sources for data on number of operations and casualties in Maoz, Defending the Holy Land, 239, 245. See also section on Estimating Israeli Use of Limited Force below.
  • 115
    • 34548474945 scopus 로고
    • Hebrew, Tel Aviv: Yediot Aharonot Publishers
    • Arie Naor, Begin in Power: A Personal Testimony [Hebrew] (Tel Aviv: Yediot Aharonot Publishers, 1993), 268.
    • (1993) Begin in Power: A Personal Testimony , pp. 268
    • Naor, A.1
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    • 34548478203 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Maoz, Defending the Holy Land, 90-108; Mutawi, Jordan in the 1967 War, 76-84.
    • Maoz, Defending the Holy Land, 90-108; Mutawi, Jordan in the 1967 War, 76-84.
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    • Decision Process, Choice, and Consequences: Israel's Deep Penetration Bombing in Egypt, 1970
    • July
    • Avi Shlaim and Raymond Tanter, "Decision Process, Choice, and Consequences: Israel's Deep Penetration Bombing in Egypt, 1970," World Politics 30, no. 4 (July 1978): 483-516;
    • (1978) World Politics , vol.30 , Issue.4 , pp. 483-516
    • Shlaim, A.1    Tanter, R.2
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    • Ely Karmon, Fight on All Fronts: Hizballah, the War on Terror, and the War in Iraq, The Washington Institute for Near East Policy, research memorandum no. 45, (December 2003): 9-10;
    • Ely Karmon, "Fight on All Fronts: Hizballah, the War on Terror, and the War in Iraq," The Washington Institute for Near East Policy, research memorandum no. 45, (December 2003): 9-10;
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    • The Strategy of Controlled Retaliation: The Israeli Model [Hebrew]
    • Shlomo Aronson and Dan Horowitz, "The Strategy of Controlled Retaliation: The Israeli Model" [Hebrew] State and Government 1, no. 1: 77-99;
    • State and Government , vol.1 , Issue.1 , pp. 77-99
    • Aronson, S.1    Horowitz, D.2
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    • Ranan D. Kuperman, Cycles of Violence; Kuperman, The Effect of Domestic and Foreign Pressure on Israeli Decisions to Use Limited Military Force, Journal of Peace Research 40, no. 5 (October 2003): 677-94.
    • Ranan D. Kuperman, Cycles of Violence; Kuperman, "The Effect of Domestic and Foreign Pressure on Israeli Decisions to Use Limited Military Force," Journal of Peace Research 40, no. 5 (October 2003): 677-94.
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    • Baltimore, MD: Johns Hopkins University Press
    • Ephraim Inbar, Rabin and Israel's National Security, (Baltimore, MD: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1999), 142.
    • (1999) Rabin and Israel's National Security , pp. 142
    • Inbar, E.1
  • 134
  • 135
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    • Israel's population grew from 650,000 in 1948 to 1,650,000 in 1953, an increase of 150 percent in four years. See Dov Friedlander and Calvin Goldschider, The Population of Israel (New York: Columbia University Press, 1979), 31.
    • Israel's population grew from 650,000 in 1948 to 1,650,000 in 1953, an increase of 150 percent in four years. See Dov Friedlander and Calvin Goldschider, The Population of Israel (New York: Columbia University Press, 1979), 31.
  • 138
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    • Introduction
    • Avner Yaniv, ed, Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner Publishers
    • Avner Yaniv, "Introduction," in Avner Yaniv, ed., National Security and Democracy in Israel (Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner Publishers), 1-10;
    • National Security and Democracy in Israel , pp. 1-10
    • Yaniv, A.1
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    • Hebrew, Tel-Aviv: Zmorah Bitan Modan Publishers
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    • Interview with Moshe Dayan
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    • Tactical Prevention of Suicide Bombings in Israel
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    • This appears also to have characterized the process leading to the decision to respond to the abduction of Israeli soldiers by Hizballah on 12 July 2006. See the interim report of the Vinograd Inquiry Commission that was released on 30 April 2007. The Vinograd Commission, The Second Lebanon War: Interim Report [Hebrew, accessed 2 May 2007
    • This appears also to have characterized the process leading to the decision to respond to the abduction of Israeli soldiers by Hizballah on 12 July 2006. See the interim report of the Vinograd Inquiry Commission that was released on 30 April 2007. The Vinograd Commission, "The Second Lebanon War: Interim Report" [Hebrew], http://www.vaadatwino.org.il/reports.html#null. (accessed 2 May 2007).
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    • Framing the National Interest: The Manipulation of Foreign Policy Decisions in Group Settings
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    • Gad Barzilai and Bruce Russett, "The Political Economy of Israeli Military Action." In Asher Arian and Michal Shamir, eds., The Elections in Israel, 1988 (Boulder, CO: Westview Press, 1990), 13-35;
    • (1990) The Elections in Israel, 1988 , pp. 13-35
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    • The Quantitative History of the Arab Israeli Project Website is available at
    • Kuperman, Cycles of Violence. The Quantitative History of the Arab Israeli Project Website is available at: http://psfaculty.ucdavis.edu/ zmaoz/quanthist.htm.
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    • In my, Defending the Holy Land, 239-46, I present charts of the annual series of the number of low-intensity exchanges between Arab states, non-state actors (for example, Fedayeen attacks in the 1950s and 1960s, Palestinian terrorist attacks since 1965, and Hizballah attacks over the 1983-2000 period) and Israeli operations over the same period. He also shows the series on the Arab and Israeli fatalities incurred during these LIC events.
    • In my, Defending the Holy Land, 239-46, I present charts of the annual series of the number of low-intensity exchanges between Arab states, non-state actors (for example, Fedayeen attacks in the 1950s and 1960s, Palestinian terrorist attacks since 1965, and Hizballah attacks over the 1983-2000 period) and Israeli operations over the same period. He also shows the series on the Arab and Israeli fatalities incurred during these LIC events.
  • 164
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    • Updated data (not included in this study) extends the last wave to the beginning of 2007
    • Updated data (not included in this study) extends the last wave to the beginning of 2007.
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    • This ratio is very similar to the fatality ratio in the Arab-Israeli Wars. See Melvin Small and J. David Singer, Resort to Arms: International and Civil Wars, 1816-1980 (Beverly Hills, CA: Sage Publications, 1982);
    • This ratio is very similar to the fatality ratio in the Arab-Israeli Wars. See Melvin Small and J. David Singer, Resort to Arms: International and Civil Wars, 1816-1980 (Beverly Hills, CA: Sage Publications, 1982);
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    • Almog, The Israeli Strategy of Deterrence as a Model of Accumulated Deterrence. This proposition is probably supported by the events of the summer of 2006 in Lebanon and Gaza.
    • Almog, The Israeli Strategy of Deterrence as a Model of Accumulated Deterrence. This proposition is probably supported by the events of the summer of 2006 in Lebanon and Gaza.
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    • x SIPRI Yearbook: Armaments, Disarmament, and International Security x, Oxford: Oxford University Press
    • Renata Dwan and Caroline Holmqvist, "Major Armed Conflicts," in [x SIPRI 2005 Yearbook: Armaments, Disarmament, and International Security x] (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2005).
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    • The outbreak of the Al Aqsa Intifada and the kidnapping of Israeli soldiers by Hizballah on 12 July 2006 may be taken as powerful counter-examples to this argument. But the causes of the Intifada are not all that obvious. Many claim that the Palestinians launched it not due to the perception of Israeli vulnerability due to its Oslo concessions, but precisely because they believed that Israel had violated most of its obligations under the Oslo Accord. See for example Khalil Shikaki, Palestinians Divided, Foreign Affairs 81, no. 1 (January 2002);
    • The outbreak of the Al Aqsa Intifada and the kidnapping of Israeli soldiers by Hizballah on 12 July 2006 may be taken as powerful counter-examples to this argument. But the causes of the Intifada are not all that obvious. Many claim that the Palestinians launched it not due to the perception of Israeli vulnerability due to its Oslo concessions, but precisely because they believed that Israel had violated most of its obligations under the Oslo Accord. See for example Khalil Shikaki, "Palestinians Divided," Foreign Affairs 81, no. 1 (January 2002);
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    • Likewise, Hizballah's kidnapping can be seen as a retaliation to Israel's policy of kidnapping Lebanese operatives in the 1990s. See Zeev Maoz, Five Years of Intifada: The War that Everybody Lost, (paper, annual meeting of the Israeli Association of International Studies, Jerusalem, 5 June 2006).
    • Likewise, Hizballah's kidnapping can be seen as a retaliation to Israel's policy of kidnapping Lebanese operatives in the 1990s. See Zeev Maoz, "Five Years of Intifada: The War that Everybody Lost," (paper, annual meeting of the Israeli Association of International Studies, Jerusalem, 5 June 2006).


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