Characteristics of software engineers with optimistic predictions

Journal of Systems and Software

Volumn 80, Issue 9, 2007, Pages 1472-1482

  Jørgensen, Magne ^a,b   Faugli, Bjørn ^b   Gruschke, Tanja ^a,c  

^a SIMULA RESEARCH LABORATORY   (Norway)

^b INLAND NORWAY UNIVERSITY OF APPLIED SCIENCES   (Norway)

^c UNIVERSITY OF OSLO   (Norway)

Author keywords

Expert judgment; Predictions of optimism; Software development effort estimation

Indexed keywords

EXPERT SYSTEMS; OPTIMIZATION; PREDICTIVE CONTROL SYSTEMS;

DEVELOPMENT SKILL; EFFORT ESTIMATION; EXPERT JUDGMENT;

SOFTWARE ENGINEERING;

EID: 34547729275     PISSN: 01641212     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.jss.2006.09.047     Document Type: Article

References (16)

1. Buehler R., Griffin D., and Ross M. Exploring the planning fallacy: why people underestimate their task completion times. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 67 3 (1994) 366-381
2. Gutkovich Z., Rosenthal R.N., Galynker I., Muran C., Batchelder S., and Itskhoki E. Depression and demoralization among Russian-Jewish immigrants in primary care. Psychosomatics 40 (1999) 117-125
3. Hill J., Thomas L.C., and Allen D.E. Experts' estimates of task durations in software development projects. International Journal of Project Management 18 1 (2000) 13-21
4. Jørgensen M. Realism in assessment of effort estimation uncertainty: it matters how you ask. IEEE Transactions on Software Engineering 30 4 (2004) 209-217
5. Jørgensen M. A review of studies on expert estimation of software development effort. Journal of Systems and Software 70 1-2 (2004) 37-60
6. Jørgensen M., and Carelius G. An empirical study of software project bidding. IEEE Transactions of Software Engineering 30 12 (2004) 953-969
7. Jørgensen M., and Moløkken-Østvold K.J. Reasons for software effort estimation error: impact of respondent role, information collection approach, and data analysis method. IEEE Transactions on Software Engineering 30 12 (2004) 993-1007
8. Jørgensen M., and Sjøberg D.I.K. Impact of experience on maintenance skills. Journal of Software Maintenance and Evolution: Research and practice 14 2 (2002) 123-146
9. Jørgensen M., Teigen K.H., and Moløkken-Østvold K.J. Better sure than safe? over-confidence in judgement based software development effort prediction intervals. Journal of Systems and Software 70 1-2 (2004) 79-93
10. Lichtenstein D., Kaufman P.J., and Bhagat B. Why consumers choose managed mutual funds over index funds: hypotheses from consumer behavior. The Journal of Consumer Affairs 33 1 (1999) 187-205
11. Manger T., and Teigen K.H. Time horizon in students' predictions of grades. Scandinavian Journal of Educational Research 32 2 (1988) 77-91
12. Paynter, J., 1996. Project estimation using screenflow engineering. In: International Conference on Software Engineering: Education and Practice, Dunedin, New Zealand, IEEE Comput. Soc. Press, Los Alamitos, CA, USA: 150-159.
13. Roy M.M., Christenfeld J.S., and McKenzie C.R.M. Underestimating the duration of future events: memory incorrectly used or memory bias?. Psychological Bulletin 131 5 (2005) 738-756
14. Scheier M.F., and Carver C.S. Optimism, coping and health: assessment and implications of generalized outcome expectancies. Health Psychology 4 (1985) 219-247
15. Seligman M.E.P. Learned Optimism (1995), Knopf, New York
16. Tetlock P.E. Expert Political Judgment: How Good is it? How can we know? (2005), Princeton University Press