Impact of time series data on calibration and prediction uncertainty for a deterministic hydrogeochemical model

Ecological Modelling

Volumn 207, Issue 1, 2007, Pages 22-33

  Larssen, Thorjørn ^a   Høgåsen, Tore ^a   Cosby, B Jack ^b  

^a NORWEGIAN INSTITUTE FOR WATER RESEARCH   (Norway)

^b UNIVERSITY OF VIRGINIA   (United States)

Author keywords

Acidification modelling; Data availability; MAGIC; Markov Chain Monte Carlo; Model calibration; Recovery; Time series data

Indexed keywords

COMPUTER SIMULATION; MARKOV PROCESSES; MATHEMATICAL MODELS; MONTE CARLO METHODS; TIME SERIES ANALYSIS; UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS;

ACIDIFICATION MODELING; DATA AVAILABILITY; MARKOV CHAIN MONTE CARLO; MODEL CALIBRATION; TIME SERIES DATA;

DATA REDUCTION;

ACIDIFICATION; CALIBRATION; CATCHMENT; HYDROGEOCHEMISTRY; MARKOV CHAIN; MODELING; MONTE CARLO ANALYSIS; PREDICTION; TIME SERIES ANALYSIS; UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS;

EURASIA; EUROPE; NORTHERN EUROPE; NORWAY; SCANDINAVIA;

EID: 34547699243     PISSN: 03043800     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2007.03.016     Document Type: Article

References (24)

1. Aas W., Tørseth K., Solberg S., Berg T., Manø S., and Yttri K.E. Monitoring of Long Range Transported Air Pollution and Precipitation-Atmospheric Deposition 2002 (2003), The Norwegian Pollution Control Authority (SFT)
2. Anctil F., Perrin C., and Andreassian V. Impact of the length of observed records on the performance of ANN and of conceptual parsimonious rainfall-runoff forecasting models. Environ. Model. Softw. 19 (2004) 357-368
3. Bates S., Cullen A., and Raftery A. Bayesian uncertainty assessment in multicompartment deterministic simulation models for environmental risk assessment. Environmetrics 14 (2003) 355-371
4. Blöschl G., and Grayson R. Spatial observations and interpolation. In: Grayson R., and Blöschl G. (Eds). Spatial Patterns in Catchment Hydrology (2000), Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK 51-81
5. Brath A., Montanari A., and Toth E. Analysis of the effects of different scenarios of historical data availability on the calibration of a spatially-distributed hydrological model. J. Hydrol. 291 (2004) 232-253
6. Cosby B.J., Ferrier R.C., Jenkins A., and Wright R.F. Modelling the effects of acid deposition: refinements, adjustments and inclusion of nitrogen dynamics in the MAGIC model. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. 5 (2001) 499-518
7. Cosby B.J., Hornberger G.M., Galloway J.N., and Wright R.F. Modelling the effects of acid deposition: assessment of a lumped parameter model of soil water and streamwater chemistry. Water Resour. Res. 21 (1985) 51-63
8. Funtowicz S.O., and Ravetz J.R. Uncertainty and quality in science for policy. Theory and Decision Library A: Philosophy and Methodology of the Social Sciences (1990), Kluwer, Dordrecht p. 15
9. Kuczera G., and Parent E. Monte Carlo assessment of parameter uncertainty in conceptual catchment models: the metropolis algorithm. J. Hydrol. 211 (1998) 69-85
10. Larssen T., Cosby B.J., and Høgåsen T. Uncertainties in predictions of surface water acidity using the MAGIC model. Water Air Soil Pollut.: Focus 4 (2004) 125-137
11. Larssen T., Huseby R.B., Cosby B.J., Høst G., Høgåsen T., and Aldrin M. Forecasting acidification effects using a Bayesian calibration and uncertainty propagation approach. Environ. Sci. Technol. 40 (2006) 7841-7847
12. Lien, L., Raddum, G.G., Fjellheim, A., 1992. Critical loads of acidity to freshwater-fish and invertebrates. NIVA-report 2732/1992. Norwegian Institute for Water Research, Oslo.
13. Makowski D., Wallach D., and Tremblay M. Using a Bayesian approach to parameter estimation; comparison of the GLUE and MCMC methods. Agronomie 22 (2002) 191-203
14. Perrin C., Michel C., and Andreassian V. Does a large number of parameters enhance model performance? Comparative assessment of common catchment model structures on 429 catchments. J. Hydrol. 242 (2001) 275-301
15. Saloranta T.M., Kämäri J., Rekolainen S., and Malve O. Benchmark criteria: a tool for selecting appropriate models in the field of water management. Environ. Manage. 32 (2003) 322-333
16. Schöpp W., Posch M., Mylona S., and Johansson M. Long-term development of acid deposition (1880-2030) in sensitive freshwater regions in Europe. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. 7 (2003) 436-446
17. SFT, 1993. The Norwegian monitoring programme for long-range transported air pollutants. Annual Report 1992, No. 533/93. The Norwegian Pollution Control Authority (SFT), Oslo, Norway.
18. SFT, 2001. The Norwegian monitoring programme for long-range transported air pollutants. Annual Report-Effects 2000, No. 834/01. The Norwegian Pollution Control Authority (SFT), Oslo, Norway.
19. SFT, 2004. The Norwegian monitoring programme for long-range transported air pollutants. Annual Report-Effects 2003, No. 913/2004. The Norwegian Pollution Control Authority (SFT), Oslo, Norway.
20. Snowling S., and Kramer J. Evaluating modelling uncertainty for model selection. Ecol. Model. 138 (2001) 17-30
21. Stuanes A.O., Abrahamsen G., and Røsberg I. Acidification of soils in five catchments in Norway. Water Air Soil Pollut. 85 (1995) 635-640
22. Thiemann M., Trosset M., Gupta H., and Sorooshian S. Bayesian recursive parameter estimation for hydrologic models. Water Resour. Res. 37 (2001) 2521-2535
23. Uhlenbrook S., and Sieber A. On the value of experimental data to reduce the prediction uncertainty of a process-oriented catchment model. Environ. Model. Softw. 20 (2005) 19-32
24. Xia Y., Yang Z., Jackson C., Stoffa P., and Sen M. Impacts of data length on optimal parameter and uncertainty estimation of a land surface model. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos. 109 (2004) D07101 doi:10.1029/2003JD004419