Will dragonblood survive the next period of climate change? Current and future potential distribution of Dracaena cinnabari (Socotra, Yemen)

Biological Conservation

Volumn 138, Issue 3-4, 2007, Pages 430-439

  Attorre, Fabio ^a   Francesconi, Fabio ^a   Taleb, Nadim ^b   Scholte, Paul ^b,c   Saed, Ahmed ^b   Alfo, Marco ^a   Bruno, Franco ^a  

^a SAPIENZA UNIVERSITY OF ROME   (Italy)

^b Socotra Archipelago Conservation and Development Programme   (Yemen)

^c LEIDEN UNIVERSITY   (Netherlands)

Author keywords

Bioclimatic model; Climate change; Dracaena cinnabari; Regression tree analysis; Socotra island; Yemen

Indexed keywords

ABUNDANCE; BIOCLIMATOLOGY; CLIMATE CHANGE; CLIMATE EFFECT; POPULATION DISTRIBUTION; RANGE EXPANSION; REGRESSION ANALYSIS; SHRUB; SURVIVAL; VERTICAL DISTRIBUTION;

ASIA; EURASIA; MIDDLE EAST; SOCOTRA; SOUTH YEMEN; YEMEN;

DRACAENA CINNABARI;

EID: 34547501391     PISSN: 00063207     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.biocon.2007.05.009     Document Type: Article

References (46)

1. Adolt R., and Pavlis J. Age structure and growth of Dracaena cinnabari populations on Socotra. Trees 18 (2004) 43-53
2. Araújo M.B., Cabeza M., Thuiller W., Hannah L., and Williams P.H. Would climate change drive species out of reserves? An assessment of existing reserve selection methods. Global Change Biology 10 (2004) 1618-1626
3. Attorre F., Francesconi F., De Sanctis M., Alfò M., and Bruno F. Comparison of different methods for the production of climatic and bioclimatic maps at regional scale. International Journal of Climatology (2007) 10.1002/joc.1495
4. Bakkenes M., Alkemade R.M., Ihle F., Leemans R., and Latour J.B. Assessing effects of forecasted climate change on the diversity and distribution of European higher plants for 2050. Global Change Biology 8 (2002) 390-407
5. Berry P.M., Dawson T.E., Harrison P.A., and Pearson R.G. Modelling potential impacts of climate change on the bioclimatic envelope of species in Britain and Ireland. Global Ecology and Biogeography 11 (2002) 453-462
6. Beydoun Z.R., and Bichan H.R. The geology of Socotra Island, Gulf of Aden. Quarterly Journal of the Geological Society of London 125 (1970) 413-446
7. Beyhl F.E. Attempts at raising the Socotran Dragon tree, Dracaena cinnabari outside the island. In: Dumont H.J. (Ed). Proceedings of the First International Symposium on Socotra Island: Present and Future (1996), United Nations, New York 125-133
8. Engler R., Guisan A., and Rechsteiner L. An improved approach for predicting the distribution of rare and endangered species from occurrence and pseudo-absence data. Journal of Applied Ecology 41 (2004) 263-274
9. Fleitmann D., Matter A., Burns S.J., Al-Subarry A., and Al-Aowah M.A. Geology and Quaternary climate history of Socotra. Fauna of Arabia 20 (2004) 27-43
10. Hampe A. Bioclimate envelope models: what they detect and what they hide. Global Ecology and Biogeography 13 (2004) 469-471
11. Hofierka, J., Súri, M., 2002. The solar radiation model for open source GIS: implementation and applications. In: Proceedings of the Open Source GIS - GRASS Users Conference, Trento, Italy, 11-13 September.
12. Huntley B., Berry P.M., Cramer W., and McDonald A.P. Modelling present and potential future ranges of some European higher plants using climate response surfaces. Journal of Biogeography 22 (1995) 967-1001
13. Iverson L.R., and Prasad A. Predicting abundance for 80 tree species following climate change in the Eastern United States. Ecological Monographs 68 (1998) 465-485
14. Iverson L.R., and Prasad A. Potential redistribution of tree species habitat under five climate change scenarios in the eastern US. Forest Ecology and Management 155 (2002) 205-222
15. Iverson L.R., Prasad A., and Schwartz M.K. Modelling potential future individual tree-species distributions in the eastern United States under a climate change scenario: a case study with Pinus virginiana. Ecological Modelling 115 (1999) 77-93
16. Jensen M.E., and Haise H.R. Estimating evapotranspiration from solar radiation. Journal of the Irrigation and Drainage Division 89 (1963) 15-41
17. Kràl K., and Pavliš J. The first detailed land-cover map of Socotra island by Landsat/ETM + data. International Journal of Remote Sensing 27 (2006) 3239-3250
18. Malcolm J.R., Cancan L., Neilson R.P., Hansen L., and Hannah L. Global warming and extinctions of endemic species from biodiversity hotspots. Conservation Biology 20 (2006) 538-548
19. Marrero A., Almeida S.R., and Gonzàlez-Martìnez M. A new species of the wild Dragon Tree, Dracaena (Dracaenaceae) from Gran Canaria and its taxonomic and biogeographic implications. Botanical Journal of the Linnaean Society 128 (1998) 291-314
20. Midgley G.F., Hannah L., Millar D., Rutherford M.C., and Powrie L.W. Assessing the vulnerability of species richness to anthropogenic climate change in a biodiversity hotspot. Global Ecology and Biogeography 11 (2002) 445-451
21. Mies B.A. The phytogeography of Socotra: evidence for disjunctive taxa, especially with Macaronesia. In: Dumont H.J. (Ed). Proceedings of the First International Symposium on Socotra Island: Present and Future (1996), United Nations Publications, New York 83-105
22. Mies B.A., and Beyhl F.E. The vegetation and ecology of Socotra. The Vegetation Ecology of Soqotra. In: Dumont H.J. (Ed). Proceedings of the First International Symposium on Soqotra Island: Present and Future (1996), United Nations Publications, New York 35-82
23. Miller A.G., and Morris M. Ethnoflora of the Sqotra archipelago (2004), The Royal Botanic Garden Edinburgh, UK
24. Mitchell, T., Carter, T.R., Jones, P., Hulme, M., New, M., 2004. A comprehensive set of high-resolution grids of monthly climate for Europe and the globe: observed record (1901-2000) and 16 scenarios (2001-2100). Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research Working Paper 55.
25. Nakicenovic N., and Swart R. Emissions scenarios. A special report of Working Group III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2000), Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
26. Parmesan C., and Yohe G. A globally coherent fingerprint of climate change impacts across natural systems. Nature 421 (2003) 37-42
27. Pearson R.G., and Dawson T.E. Predicting the impacts of climate change on the distribution of species: are bioclimate envelope models useful?. Global Ecology and Biogeography 12 (2003) 361-371
28. Pearson R.G., Dawson T.P., Berry P.M., and Harrison P.A. SPECIES: a spatial evaluation of climate impact on the envelope of species. Ecological Modelling 154 (2002) 289-300
29. Petroncini, S., 2000. Surveys and Monitoring of Dracaena cinnabari. Unpublished Report, SCDP/EPA, Sana'a, Yemen.
30. Popov G.B. The vegetation of Socotra. Journal of the Linnean Society (Botany), London 55 (1957) 706-720
31. Quetzel P. Analysis of the flora of the Mediterranean and Saharan Africa. Annals of the Missouri Botanical Garden 65 (1978) 479-534
32. Robertson M.P., Caithness S., and Villet M.H. A PCA-based modelling technique for predicting environmental suitability for organism from presence records. Diversity and Distribution 7 (2001) 15-27
33. Root T.L., Price J.T., Hall K.R., Schneider S.H., Rosenzweig C., and Pounds J.A. Fingerprints of global warming on wild animals and plants. Nature 421 (2003) 57-60
34. Rothman, K.J., 1986. Modern Epidemiology, Boston, Little, Brown.
35. Segurado P., and Araùjo M.B. An evaluation of methods for modelling species distributions. Journal of Biogeography 31 (2004) 1555-1568
36. Shafer S.L., Bartlein P.J., and Thompson R.S. Potential changes in the distributions of Western North America tree and shrub taxa under future climate scenarios. Ecosystems 4 (2001) 200-215
37. Skov F., and Svenning J.-C. Potential impact of climatic change on the distribution of forest herbs in Europe. Ecography 27 (2004) 366-380
38. Statistical Sciences, 1993. S-PLUS guide to statistical and mathematical analysis, version 3.2. Statistical Sciences, Seattle, WA.
39. Thomas C.D., Cameron A., Green R.E., Bakkenes M., Beaumont L.J., Collingham Y., Erasmus B.F.N., de Siqueira M.F., Grainger A., Hannah L., Hughes L., Huntley B., van Jaarsveld A.S., Midgley G.F., Miles L.J., Ortega-Huerta M.A., Townsend Peterson A., Phillips O., and Williams S.E. Extinction risk from climate change. Nature 427 (2004) 145-148
40. Thuiller W. BIOMOD - optimizing predictions of species distribution and projecting potential future shifts under global change. Global Change Biology 9 (2003) 1353-1362
41. Thuiller W. Patterns and uncertainties of species' range shifts under climate change. Global Change Biology 10 (2004) 2020-2027
42. Thuiller W., Araùjo M.B., Pearson R.G., Whittaker R.J., Brotons L., and Lavorel S. Uncertainty in predictions of extinction risk. Nature 430 (2004) 30
43. Thuiller W., Lavorel S., and Araùjo M.B. Niche properties and geographic extent as predictors of species sensitivity to climate change. Global Ecology and Biogeography 14 (2005) 347-357
44. Thuiller W., Midgely G.F., Hughes G.O., Bomhard B., Drew G., Rutherford M.C., and Woodward F.I. Endemic species and ecosystem sensitivity to climate change in Namibia Global Change Biology 12 (2006) 1-18
45. UNEP, 1992. World Atlas of Desertification. Edward Arnold, London (UK), pp. 69.
46. Zaniewski A.E., Lehmann A., and Overton J. Predicting species spatial distributions using presence-only data: a case study of native New Zealand ferns. Ecological Modelling 157 (2002) 261-280