Impact of greenhouse gas concentrations on tropical storms in coupled seasonal forecasts

Tellus, Series A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography

Volumn 59 A, Issue 4, 2007, Pages 417-427

  Vitart, Frédéric ^a   Doblas Reyes, Francisco ^a  

^a EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR MEDIUM RANGE WEATHER FORECASTS   (United Kingdom)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

ATMOSPHERIC GENERAL CIRCULATION MODEL; DECADAL VARIATION; GREENHOUSE EFFECT; GREENHOUSE GAS; THERMODYNAMIC PROPERTY; TROPICAL CYCLONE; WEATHER FORECASTING;

ATLANTIC OCEAN; ATLANTIC OCEAN (NORTH); PACIFIC OCEAN; PACIFIC OCEAN (NORTH);

EID: 34547435327     PISSN: 02806495     EISSN: 16000870     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1111/j.1600-0870.2007.00237.x     Document Type: Article

References (30)

1. Broccoli, A. J. and Manabe, S. 1990. Can existing climate models be used to study anthropogenic changes in tropical cyclone climate? Geophys. Res. Lett. 17, 1917-1920.
2. Bengtsson, L., Botzet, M. and Esh, M. 1996. Will greenhouse gas-induced warming over the next 50 years lead to a higher frequency and greater intensity of hurricanes?Tellus 48A, 57-73.
3. Camargo, S. J., Barnston, A. G. and Zebiak, S. E. 2005. A statistical assessment of tropical cyclone activity in atmospheric general circulation models. Tellus 57A, 589-604.
4. Chan, J. C. L. 2006. Comments on "Changes in tropical Cyclone Number, Duration and Intensity in a Warming Environment". Science 311, 1713.
5. Landsea, C. W. 2005. Hurricanes and global warming. Nature 438, E11-E12.
6. Doblas-Reyes, F. J., Hagedorn, R. and Palmer, T. N. 2005. The rationale behind the success of multi-model ensembles in seasonal forecasting. part II: Calibration and combination. Tellus 57A, 234-252.
7. Doblas-Reyes, F. J., Hagedorn, R., Palmer, T. N. and Morcrette, J.-J. 2006. Impact of increasing greenhouse gas concentrations in seasonal ensemble forecasts. Geophys. Res. Lett. 33, L07708, doi:10.1029/ 2005GL025061.
8. Emanuel, K. A. 2005. Increasing destructiveness of tropical cyclones over the past 30 years. Nature 436, 686-688.
9. Gray, W. M. 1979. Hurricanes: Their formation, structure and likely role in the tropical circulation. In: Meteorology over the Tropical Oceans (ed. D. B. Shaw), Roy. Meteor. Soc., 155-218.
10. Haarsma, R. J., Mitchell, J. F. B. and Senior, C. A. 1993. Tropical disturbances in a GCM. Climate Dyn. 8, 247-257.
11. Hagedorn, R., Doblas-Reyes, F. J. and Palmer, T. N. 2005. The rationale behind the success of multi-model ensembles in seasonal forecasting. part I: Basic concept. Tellus 57A, 219-233.
12. Holland, G. J. 1997. The maximum potential intensity of tropical cyclones. J. Atmos. Sci. 54, 2519-2541.
13. Jolliffe, I. T. and Stephenson, D. B. 2003. Forecast verification: A practitioner's guide in atmospheric science. Wiley, New York.
14. 2-warmed climate. Science 179, 1018-1020.
15. 2-induced warming on simulated hurricane intensity and precipitation: Sensitivity to the choice of climate model and convective parameterization. J. Climate 17, 3477-3495.
16. Neumann, C. J., Jarvinen, B. R., McAdie, C. J., and Elms. J. D., 1993. Historical Climatology Series. NOAA, 6-2, 193 pp.
17. Oouchi, K., Yoshimura, J., Yoshimura, H., Kusunoki, S. and Noda, A. 2006. Tropical cyclone climatology in a global-warming Climate as simulated in 1 20 km-mesh global atmospheric model: Frequency and wind intensity analyses. J. Meteorol. Soc. Japan 84, 259-276.
18. Palmer, T. N., Alessandri, A., Andersen, U., Cantelaube, P., Davey, M., Délécluse, P., Déqué, M., Díez, E., Doblas-Reyes, F. J., Feddersen, H., Graham, R., Gualdi, S., Guérémy, J.-F., Hagedorn, R., Hoshen, M., Keenlyside, N., Latif, M., Lazar, A., Maisonnave, E., Marletto, V., Morse, A. P., Orfila, B., Rogel, P., Terres, J.-M. and Thomson, M. C. 2004. Development of a European multi-model ensemble system for seasonal to inter-annual prediction (DEMETER). Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. 85, 853-872.
19. Royer, J. F., Chauvin, F., Timbal, B., Araspin, P. and Grimal, D. 1998. A GCM study of the impact of greenhouse gas increase on the frequency of occurrence of tropical cyclones. Climatic Change 38, 307-343.
20. Ryan, B. F., Watterson, I. G. and Evans, J. L. 1992. Tropical cyclone frequency inferred from Gray's yearly genesis parameter: Validation of GCM tropical climate. Geophys. Res. Lett. 19, 1831-1834.
21. Shen, W., Tuleya, T. R. and Ginis, I. 2000. A sensitivity study of the thermodynamical environment on GFDL model hurricane intensity: Implications for global warming. J. Climate 120, 978-1002.
22. Stephenson, D. B., Coelho, C. A. D. S., Doblas-Reyes, J. F. and Balmaseda, M. 2005. Forecast assimilation: A unified framework for the combination of multimodel weather and climate predictions. Tellus 57A, 253-264.
23. Sugi, M., Noda, A. and Sato, N. 2002. Influence of the global warming on tropical cyclone climatology: An experiment with the JMA global model. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan 80, 249-272.
24. Uppala, S. M., Kllberg, P. W., Simmons, A. J., Andrae, U., da Costa Bechtold, V., Fiorino, M., Gibson, J. K., Haseler, J., Hernandez, A., Kelly, G. A., Li, X., Onogi, K., Saarinen, S., Sokka, N., Allan, R. P., Andersson, E., Arpe, K., Balmaseda, M. A., Beljaars, A. C. M., van de Berg, L., Bidlot, J., Bormann, N., Caires, S., Chevallier, F., Dethof, A., Dragosavac, M., Fisher, M., Fuentes, M., Hagemann, S., Hlm, E., Hoskins, B. J., Isaksen, L., Janssen, P. A. E. M., Jenne, R., McNally, A. P., Mahfouf, J.-F., Morcrette, J.-J., Rayner, N. A., Saunders, R. W., Simon, P., Sterl, A., Trenberth, K. E., Untch, A., Vasiljevic, D., Viterbo, P. and Woollen, J. 2005. The ERA-40 Reanalysis. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc. 131, 2691-3012.
25. Vitart, F. 2006. Seasonal forecasting of tropical storm frequency using a multi-model ensemble. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc. 132, 647-666.
26. Vitart, F. and Stockdale, T. N. 2001. Seasonal forecasting of tropical storms using coupled GCM integrations. Mon. Wea. Rev. 129, 2521-2537.
27. Vitart, F., Anderson, J. L. and Stern, W. F. 1997. Simulation of the interannual variability of tropical storm frequency in an ensemble of GCM integrations. J. Climate 10, 745-760.
28. Vitart, F., Anderson, J. L., Sirutis, J. and Tuleya, R. E. 2001. Sensitivity of tropical storms simulated by a general circulation model to changes in cumulus parametrization. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc. 127, 25-51.
29. Webster, P. J., Holland, G. Curry, J. A. and Chang, H.-R. 2005. Changes in tropical cyclone number, duration, and intensity in a warming environment. Science 309, 1844-1846.
30. Wonacott, T. H. and Wonacott, R. J. 1977. Introductory statistics. John Wiley, 650 pp.