Quantitative precipitation forecasting in the Alps: The advances achieved by the Mesoscale Alpine Programme

Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society

Volumn 133, Issue 625 B, 2007, Pages 831-846

  Richard, Evelyne ^a   Buzzi, Andrea ^b   Zängl, Günther ^c  

^a CNRS   (France)

^b INSTITUTE OF ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES AND CLIMATE   (Italy)

^c UNIVERSITY OF MUNICH   (Germany)

Author keywords

High resolution numerical modelling; Orographically influenced precipitation

Indexed keywords

HIGH-RESOLUTION NUMERICAL MODELLING; QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECASTING;

DATA REDUCTION; MATHEMATICAL MODELS; TOPOGRAPHY; WEATHER FORECASTING;

PRECIPITATION (METEOROLOGY);

DATA ASSIMILATION; FORECASTING METHOD; MESOSCALE METEOROLOGY; NUMERICAL MODEL; OROGRAPHY; PRECIPITATION (CLIMATOLOGY); QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS;

ALPS; EURASIA; EUROPE;

EID: 34447629054     PISSN: 00359009     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1002/qj.65     Document Type: Article

References (73)

1. Asencio N, Stein J. 2006. Origins of the reverse flow over the windward Alpine foothills during MAP IOP 3 and IOP 8. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 132: 297-316.
2. Asencio N, Stein J, Chong M, Gheusi F. 2003. Analysis and simulation of local and regional conditions for the rainfall over the Lago Maggiore target area during MAP IOP 2b. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 129: 565-586.
3. Benoit R, Desgagné M, Pellerin P, Chartier Y, Desjardins S. 1997. The Canadian MC2: A semi-Lagrangian, serni-implicit wideband atmospheric model suited for finescale process studies and simulations. Mon. Weather Rev. 125: 2382-2415.
4. Benoit R, Schär C, Binder P, Chamberland S, Davies HC, Desgagné M, Girard C, Keil C, Kouwen N, Lüthi D, Maric D, Müller E, Pellerin P, Schmidli J, Schubiger F, Schwierz C, Sprenger M, Walser A, Willemse S, Yu W, Zala E. 2002. The real-time ultrafinescale forecast support during the Special Observing Period of the MAP. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 83: 85-109.
5. Bond NA, Mass CF, Smull BF, Houze RA, Yang M-J, Colle BA, Braun SA, Shapiro MA, Colman BR, Neiman PJ, Overland JE, Neff WD, Doyle JD. 1997. The Coastal Observation and Simulation with Topography (COAST) experiment. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 78: 1941-1955.
6. Bougeault P. 2003. WMO WGNE survey of verification methods for numerical prediction of weather elements and severe weather events. Appendix C of Report of the 18th session of the CAS/JSC WGNE. http://www.wmo.ch/web/ wcrp/wgnepublications.htm.
7. Bougeault P, Binder P, Buzzi A, Dirks R, Houze RA, Kuettner J, Smith RB, Steinacker R, Volkert H. 2001. The MAP special observing period. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 82: 433-462.
8. Buzzi A, D'Isidoro M, Davolio S. 2003. A case-study of an orographic cyclone south of the Alps during the MAP SOP. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 129: 1795-1818.
9. Buzzi A, Davolio S, D'Isidoro M, Malguzzi P. 2004. The impact of resolution and of MAP reanalysis on the simulations of heavy precipitation during MAP cases. Meteorol. Z. 13: 91-97.
10. Cherubini T, Ghelli A, Lalaurette F. 2002. Verification of precipitation forecasts over the Alpine region using a high-density observing network. Weather and Forecasting 17: 238-249.
11. Chiao S, Lin Y-L, Kaplan ML. 2004. Numerical study of the orographic forcing of heavy precipitation during MAP IOP 2B. Mon. Weather Rev. 132: 2184-2203.
12. Colle BA, Mass CF, Smull BF. 1999. An observational and numerical study of a cold front interacting with the Olympic Mountains during COAST IOP 5. Mon. Weather Rev. 127: 1310-1334.
13. Colle BA, Mass CF, Ovens D. 2001. Evaluation of the timing and strength of MM5 and Eta surface trough passages over the eastern Pacific. Weather and Forecasting 16: 553-572.
14. Colle BA, Wolfe JB, Steenburgh WJ, Kingsmill DE, Cox JAW, Shafer JC. 2005. High-resolution simulations and microphysical validation of an orographic precipitation event over the Wasatch Mountains during IPEX IOP 3. Mon. Weather Rev. 133: 2947-2971.
15. Davies LA, Brown AR. 2001. Assessment of which scales of orography can credibly be resolved in a numerical mode. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 127: 1225-1238.
16. Davolio S, Buzzi A. 2004. A nudging scheme for the assimilation of precipitation data into a mesoscale model. Weather and Forecasting 19: 855-871.
17. Doms G, Schättler U. 2002. 'A description of the nonhydrostatic regional model LM. Part I: Dynamics and numerics'. Deutscher Wetterdienst, Offenbach, Germany.
18. Drofa O, Malguzzi P. 2004. Parameterization of microphysical processes in a non-hydrostatic prediction model. In Proceedings of 14th International Conference on Clouds and Precipitation (ICCP), Bologna, Italy.
19. Dudhia J. 1993. A non-hydrostatic version of the Penn State/NCAR Mesoscale Model: Validation tests and simulations of an Atlantic cyclone and cold front. Mon. Weather Rev. 121: 1493-1513.
20. Faccani C, Ferretti, R. 2005. Data assimilation of high density observations. I: Impact on initial conditions for the MAP/SOP IOP 2b. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 131: 21-42.
21. Ferretti R, Faccani C. 2005. Data assimilation of high density observations. II: Impact on the forecast of the precipitation for the MAP/SOP IOP 2b. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 131: 43-62.
22. Ferretti R, Paolucci T, Giuliani G, Cherubini T, Bernardini L, Visconti G. 2003. Verification of high-resolution real-time forecasts over the Alpine region during the MAP SOP. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 129: 587-607.
23. Fritsch JM, Houze Jr RA, Adler R, Bluestein H, Bosart L, Brown J, Carr F, Davis C, Johnson RH, Junker N, Kuo Y-H, Rutledge S, Smith J, Toth Z, Wilson JW, Zipser E, Zrnic D. 1998. Quantitative precipitation forecasting: Report of the eighth prospectus development team, US Weather Research Program. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 79: 285-299.
24. Gal-Chen T, Somerville R. 1975. On the use of a coordinate transformation for the solution of the Navier-Stokes equations. J. Comput. Phys. 17: 209-228.
25. Hohenegger C, Schär C, Walser A, Lüthi D. 2004. 'Comparison of cloud-resolving ensemble simulations using LM and MC2 simulations'. In proceedings of 11th Conference on Mountain Meteorology, 21-25 June, Mount Washington, USA.
26. Hohenegger C, Lüthi D, Schär C. 2006. Predictability mysteries in cloud-resolving models. Mon. Weather Rev. 134: 2095-2107.
27. Hoinka KP, Richard E, Poberaj G, Busen R, Caccia J-L, Fix A, Mannstein H. Analysis of a potential-vorticity streamer crossing the Alps during MAP IOP 15 on 6 November 1999. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 129: 609-632.
28. Hong S-Y, Pan H-L. 1996. Non-local boundary layer vertical diffusion in a medium-range forecast model. Mon. Weather Rev. 124: 2322-2339.
29. Hong S-Y, Dudhia J, Chen S-H. 2004. A revised approach to ice microphysical processes for the bulk parameterization of clouds and precipitation. Mon. Weather Rev. 132: 103-120.
30. Houze Jr RA, Medina S. 2005. Turbulence as a mechanism for orographic precipitation enhancement. J. Atmos. Sci. 62: 3599-3623.
31. Janjić ZI. 1994. The step-mountain eta coordinate model: Further development of the convection, viscous sublayer, and turbulent closure schemes. Mon. Weather Rev. 122: 927-945.
32. Keil C, Cardinali C. 2004. The ECMWF re-analysis of the Mesoscale Alpine Programme Special Observing Period. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 130: 2827-2850.
33. Kingsmill DE, Neiman PJ, Ralph FM, White AB. 2006. Synoptic and topographic variability of northern California precipitation characteristics in landfalling winter storms observed during CALJET. Mon. Weather Rev. 134: 2072-2094.
34. Klemp JB, Skamarock WC, Fuhrer O. 2003. Numerical consistency of metric terms in terrain-following coordinates. Mon. Weather Rev. 131: 1229-1239.
35. Lafore JP, Stein J, Asencio N, Bougeault P, Ducrocq V, Duron J, Fisher C, Héreil P, Mascart P, Masson V, Pinty J-P, Redelsperger J-L, Richard E, Vilà-Guerau de Arellano J. 1998. The Meso-NH atmospheric simulation system. Part I: Adiabatic formulation and control simulations. Ann. Geophys. 16: 90-109.
36. Lascaux F, Richard E, Keil C, Bock O. 2004. Impact of the MAP reanalysis on the numerical simulation of the MAP-IOP 2A convective system. Meteorol. Z. 13: 49-54.
37. Lascaux F, Richard E, Pinty J-P. 2006. Numerical simulations of three different MAP IOPs and the associated microphysical processes. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 132: 1907-1926.
38. Lin Y-L, Farley RD, Orville HD. 1983. Bulk parameterization of the snow field in a cloud model. J. Climate Appl. Meteorol. 22: 1065-1092.
39. Lin Y-L, Reeves HD, Chen S-Y, Chiao S. 2005. Formation mechanisms for convection over the Ligurian Sea during MAP IOP 8. Mon. Weather Rev. 133: 2227-2245.
40. Marsigli C, Montani A, Nerozzi F, Paccagnella T, Tibaldi S, Molteni F, Buizza R. 2001. A strategy for high-resolution ensemble prediction. II: Limited-area experiments in four Alpine flood events. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 127: 2095-2115.
41. Mass CF, Kuo Y-H. 1998. Regional real-time numerical weather prediction: current status and future potential. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 79: 253-263.
42. Mass CF, Ovens D, Westrick K, Colle BA. 2002. Does increasing horizontal resolution produce more skillful forecasts? Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 83: 407-430.
43. Medina S, Smull BF, Houze Jr. RA, Steiner M. 2005. Cross-barrier flow during orographic precipitation events: Results from MAP and IMPROVE. J. Atmos. Sci. 62: 3580-3598.
44. Molteni F, Buizza R, Marsigli C, Montani A, Nerozzi F, Paccagnella T. 2001. A strategy for high-resolution ensemble prediction. I: Definition of representative members and global-model experiments. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 127: 2069-2094.
45. Neiman PJ, Ralph FM, White AB, Kingsmill DE, Persson POG. 2002. The statistical relationship between upslope flow and rainfall in California's coastal mountains: observations during CALJET. Mon. Weather Rev. 130: 1468-1492.
46. Nuret M, Lafore JP, Gouget V, Ducrocq V. 2005. Mesoscale analysis and impact on simulation of the IOP 14 of the MAP experiment. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 131: 2769-2793.
47. Pedemonte L, Corazza M, Sacchetti D, Trovatore E, Buzzi A. 2005. Verification of limited-area models precipitation forecasts during the MAP SOP. Croatian Meteorol. J. 40: 268-271.
48. Pradier S, Chong M, Roux F. 2002. Radar observations and numerical modeling of a precipitating line during MAP IOP 5. Mon. Weather Rev. 130: 2533-2553.
49. Ralph FM, Persson O, Reynolds D, Nuss W, Miller D, Schmidt J, Jorgensen D, Wilczak J, Neiman P, Bao J-W, Kingsmill D, Toth Z, Velden C, White A, King C, Wurman J. 1999. 'The California Land-Falling Jets experiment (CALJET): Objectives and design of a coastal atmosphere-ocean observing system deployed during a strong El Niño'. Pp 78-81 in Preprints, 3rd AMS symposium on Integrated Observing Systems, Dallas, Texas, USA.
50. Revell MJ, Copeland JH, Larsen HR, Wratt DS. 2002. Barrier jets around the Southern Alps of New Zealand and their potential to enhance alpine rainfall. Atmos. Res. 61: 277-298.
51. Reisner JR, Rasmussen RM, Bruintjes RT. 1998. Explicit forecasting of supercooled liquid water in winter storms using the MM5 mesoscale model. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 124: 1071-1107.
52. Richard E, Cosma S, Tabary P, Pinty J-P, Hagen M. 2003. High-resolution numerical simulations of the convective system observed in the Lago Maggiore area on the 17 September 1999 (MAP IOP 2A). Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 129: 543-564.
53. Rotunno R, Ferretti R. 2003. Orographic effects on rainfall in MAP cases IOP 2b and IOP 8. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 129: 373-390.
54. Rotunno R, Houze RA. 2007. Lessons on orographic precipitation from the Mesoscale Alpine Programme. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 133: 811-830.
55. Ryan BF, Gayet J-F. 1996. The New Zealand Southern Alps Experiment. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 77: 683-692.
56. Schär C, Leuenberger D, Fuhrer O, Lüthi D, Girard C. 2002. A new terrain-following vertical coordinate formulation for atmospheric prediction models. Mon. Weather Rev. 130: 2459-2480.
57. Shafer JC, Steenburgh WJ, Cox JAW, Monteverdi JP. 2006. Terrain influences on synoptic storm structure and mesoscale precipitation distribution during IPEX IOP 3. Mon. Weather Rev. 134: 478-497.
58. Schultz DM, Steenburgh WJ, Trapp RJ, Horel J, Kingsmill DE, Dunn LB, Rust WD, Cheng L, Bansemer A, Cox J, Daugherty J, Jorgensen DP, Meitín J, Showell L, Smull BF, Tarp K, Trainor M. 2002. Understanding Utah winter storms: The Intermountain Precipitation Experiment. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 83: 189-210.
59. Smith RB, Jiang Q, Fearon MG, Tabary P, Dorninger M, Doyle JD, Benoit R. 2003. Orographic precipitation and air mass transformation: An Alpine example. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 129: 433-454.
60. Stoelinga M, Hobbs PV, Mass CF, Locatelli JD, Colle BA, Houze RA, Rango AL, Bond NA, Smull BF, Rasmussen RM, Thompson G, Coleman BR. 2003. Improvement of microphysical parameterization through observational verification experiment. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 84: 1807-1826.
61. Tao W-K, Simpson J. 1993. Goddard cumulus ensemble model. Part I: Model description. Terr. Almos. Oceanic Sci. 4: 35-72.
62. Thompson G, Rasmussen RM, Manning K. 2004. Explicit forecasts of winter precipitation using an improved bulk microphysics scheme. Part I: Description and sensitivity analysis. Mon. Weather Rev. 132: 519-542.
63. Tibaldi S, Paccagnella T, Marsigli C, Montani A, Nerozzi F. 2003. 'Short- to medium-range limited-area ensemble prediction: the LEPS system'. Pp 155-170 of proceedings of seminar on predictability of weather and climate, 9-13 Sep 2002. ECMWF, Reading, UK.
64. Volkert H, Gutermann T. 2007. Inter-domain cooperation for mesoscale atmospheric laboratories: The Mesoscale Alpine Programme as a rich study case. Q.J.R. Meteorol. Soc. 133: 949-967.
65. Walser A, Schär, C. 2004. Convection-resolving precipitation forecasting and its predictability in Alpine river catchments. J. Hydrol. 288: 57-73.
66. Walser A, Lüthi D, Schär C. 2004. Predictability of precipitation in a cloud-resolving model. Mon. Weather Rev. 132: 560-577.
67. Warner TT, Hsu H-M. 2000. Nested-model simulation of moist convection: The impact of coarse-grid parameterized convection on fine-grid resolved convection. Mon. Weather Rev. 128: 2211-2231.
68. Zampieri M, Malguzzi P, Buzzi A. 2005. Sensitivity of quantitative precipitation forecasts to boundary-layer parameterization: A flash flood case study in the Western Mediterranean. Natural Hazard Earth System Sci. 5: 603-612.
69. Zängl G. 2002. An improved method for computing horizontal diffusion in a sigma-coordinate model and its application to simulations over mountainous topography. Mon. Weather Rev. 130: 1423-1432.
70. Zängl G. 2003. A generalized sigma coordinate system for the MM5. Mon. Weather Rev. 131: 2875-2884.
71. Zängl G. 2004. The sensitivity of simulated orographic precipitation to model components other than cloud microphysics. Q. J. R. Meterol. Soc. 130: 1857-1875.
72. Zängl G, Chimani B, Häberli C. 2004. Numerical simulations of the föhn in the Rhine Valley on 24 October 1999 (MAP IOP 10). Mon. Weather Rev. 132: 368-389.
73. Zhang D, Anthes RA. 1982. A high-resolution model of the planetary boundary layer - Sensitivity tests and comparisons with SESAME-79 data. J. Appl. Meteorol. 21: 1594-1609.