The psychology of economic forecasting

Global Business and Economics Review

Volumn 9, Issue 2-3, 2007, Pages 211-226

  Wennberg, Karl ^a   Nykvist, Björn ^b  

^a STOCKHOLM SCHOOL OF ECONOMICS   (Sweden)

^b STOCKHOLM ENVIRONMENT INSTITUTE   (Sweden)

Author keywords

Behavioural decision making; Ecological rationality; Forecasting

Indexed keywords

EID: 34250881008     PISSN: 10974954     EISSN: 17451329     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1504/GBER.2007.013702     Document Type: Article

References (38)

1. Ash, J.C.K., Smyth, D.J. and Heravi, S.M. (1998) 'Are OECD forecasts rational and useful?: a directional analysis', International Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 14, pp.381-389.
2. Ashley, R. (1988) 'On the relative worth of recent macro economic forecasts', International Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 4, pp.363-376.
3. Barot, B. (2003) 'How accurate are the Swedish forecasters on GNP, CPI and unemployment?', Unpublished manuscript, National Institute of Economic Research, Sweden.
4. Batchelor, R. and Dua, P. (1990) 'Product differentiation in the economic forecasting industry', International Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 6, pp.311-316.
5. Batchelor, R. and Dua, P. (1991) 'Conservatism and consensus-seeking among economic forecasters', International Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 6, pp.3-10.
6. Bechara, A. and Damasio, A.R. (2005) 'The somatic marker hypothesis: a neural theory of economic decision', Journal of Games and Economic Behavior, Vol. 52, pp.336-372.
7. Bimbaum, M.H. (1983) 'Base rates in Bayesian inference: signal detection analysis of the cab problem', American Journal of Psychology, Vol. 96, pp.85-94.
8. Blix, M., Wadefjord, J., Wienecke, U. and Ådahl, M. (2001) 'How good is the forecasting performance of major institutions?', Sverige Riksbank Economic Review, Vol. 3, pp.37-67.
9. Blix, M., Friberg, K. and Åkerlind, F. (2002) 'An evaluation of forecasts for the Swedish economy', Sverige Riksbank Economic Review, Vol. 3, pp.39-74.
10. Chumacero, R. (2001) 'Empirical analysis of systematic errors in Chilean GNP forecasts', Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 19, pp.26-34.
11. Coffey, A. and Atkinson, P. (1996) Making Sense of Qualitative Data, Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage.
12. Dawes, R., Faust, D. and Meehl, P. (1993) 'Statistical prediciton versus clinical prediction: improving what works', in K. Gideon and C. Lewis (Eds.) A Handbook for Data Analysis in the Behavioral Sciences: Methodological Issues, Hillsdale, NJ: Edbaum, pp.351-367.
13. Gigerenzer, G. (1991) 'How to make cognitive illusions disappear: beyond "heuristics and biases"', European Review of Social Psychology, Vol. 2, pp.83-115.
14. Gigerenzer, G., Hell, W. and Blank, H. (1988) 'Presentation and content: the use of base rates as a continuous variable', Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perceptions and Performance, Vol. 14, pp.513-525.
15. Gigerenzer, G., Todd, P.M. and the ABC Research Group (1999) Simple Heuristics that Make Us Smart, New York: Wiley.
16. Grove, W.M. and Meehl, P.E. (1996) 'Comparative efficiency of informal (subjective, impressionistic) and formal (mechanical, algorithmic) prediction procedures: the clinical-statistical controversy', Psychology, Public Policy and Law, Vol. 2, pp.293-323.
17. Hertwig, R. and Todd, P.M. (2000) 'Biases to the left, fallacies to the right: stuck in the middle with null hypothesis significance testing', Psycoloquy, Vol. 11, No. 28, Social Bias, No. 20.
18. Hogarth, R.M. (1981) 'Beyond discrete biases: functional and dysfunctional aspects of judgmental heuristics', Psychological Bulletin, Vol. 90, pp.197-217.
19. Huberman, M.A. and Miles, M.B. (1994) 'Data management and analysis methods', in N.K. Denzin and Y.S. Lincoln (Eds.) Handbook of Qualitative Research, Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage, pp.351-367.
20. Jensen, M. and Meckling, W. (1976) 'Theory of the firm: managerial behavior, agency costs, and ownership structure', Journal of Financial Economics, Vol. 3, pp.305-360.
21. Klein, G. (1994) Sources of Power: How People Make Decisions, Boston, MA: MIT Press.
22. Klein, G., Orasanu, J., Calderwood, R. and Zsambok, C. (1993) Decision-making in Action: Models and Methods, Norwood, NJ: Ablex.
23. Krueger, J. (1998) 'The bet on bias: a foregone conclusion?', Psycoloquy, Vol. 9, No. 46, Social Bias, No. 1.
24. Laster, D., Bennett, P. and Sun, G. (1999) 'Rational bias in macro economic forecasts', The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 114, pp.293-318.
25. Löffler, G. (1998) 'Biases in analyst forecasts: cognitive, strategic or second best?', International Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 14, pp.261-275.
26. Mintzberg, H. (1994) The Rise and Fall of Strategic Planning, Boston: The Free Press.
27. Montgomery, H. (2000) 'The psychology of economic forecasting: a possibility for cooperation between JDM and NDM theories?', Paper Presented at the Fifth Conference on Naturalistic Decision Making, Tammswik, Sweden, 26-28 May.
28. Öller, L-E. and Barot, B. (2000) 'The accuracy of European growth and inflation forecasts', International Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 16, pp.293-315.
29. Orasanu, J. and Connolly, T. (1993) 'The reinvention of decision making', in G. Klein, J. Orasanu, R. Calderwood and C. Zsambok (Eds.) Decision-making in Action: Models and Methods, Norwood, NJ: Ablex, pp.3-20.
30. Pons, J. (2000) 'The accuracy of IMF and OECD forecasts for G7 countries', Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 19, pp.53-63.
31. Pons-Novell, J. (2003) 'Strategic bias, herding behaviour and economic forecasts', Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 22, pp.67-77.
32. Schwartz, H.H. (1987) 'Perception, judgment, and motivation in manufacturing enterprises', Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, Vol. 8, pp.543-565.
33. Shanteau, J. (1995) 'Expert judgment and financial decision making', in B. Green (Ed.) Risk Behaviour and Risk Management: Proceedings of the First International Stockholm Seminar on Risk Behaviour and Risk Management, Stockholm: Riskforskningsgruppens rapportserie, pp.16-32.
34. Shanteau, J. (2001) 'What does it mean when experts disagree?', in E. Salas and G. Klein (Eds.) Linking Expertise and Naturalistic Decision-making, Mahwah, NJ: Erlbaum, pp.229-244.
35. Sherden, W. (1998) The Fortune Sellers: The Big Business of Buying and Selling Predictions, New York: John Wiley.
36. Slovic, P. (1969) 'Analyzing the expert judge: a descriptive study of stockbroker's decision processes', Journal of Applied Psychology, Vol. 53, pp.255-263.
37. Stanovich, K.E. (1999) Who is Rational? Studies of Individual Differences in Reasoning, Mahweh, NJ: Erlbaum.
38. Tversky, A. and Kahneman, D. (1974) 'Judgment under uncertainty: heuristics and biases', Science, Vol. 185, pp.1124-1131.