Assessing effects of data limitations on salinity forecasting in Barataria basin, Louisiana, with a Bayesian analysis

Journal of Coastal Research

Volumn 23, Issue 3, 2007, Pages 749-763

  Habib, Emad ^a   Nuttle, William K ^b   Rivera Monroy, Victor H ^c   Gautam, Shankar ^a   Wang, Jing ^c   Meselhe, Ehab ^a   Twilley, Robert R ^c  

^a University of Louisiana at Lafayette   (United States)

^b Eco Hydrology   (Canada)

^c LOUISIANA STATE UNIVERSITY   (United States)

Author keywords

Barataria basin; Coastal Louisiana; Model calibration; Parametric uncertainty; Rainfall sampling; Restoration; Salinity; Uncertainty analysis

Indexed keywords

ASSESSMENT METHOD; BAYESIAN ANALYSIS; CALIBRATION; COASTAL ZONE MANAGEMENT; DATA MANAGEMENT; ESTUARINE ECOSYSTEM; FORECASTING METHOD; RAINFALL; RESTORATION ECOLOGY; SALINITY; SUSTAINABILITY; UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS;

BARATARIA BASIN; LOUISIANA; NORTH AMERICA; UNITED STATES;

EID: 34250760472     PISSN: 07490208     EISSN: 15515036     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.2112/06-0723.1     Document Type: Article

References (45)

1. BABSON, A.L.; KAWASE, M., and MCC READY, P., 2006. Seasonal and interannual variability in the circulation of Puget Sound, Washington: a box model study. Atmosphere-Ocean 44(1), 29-45.
2. BOESCH, D.F.; JOSSELYN, M.J.; MEHTA, A.J.; MORRIS, J.T.; NUTTLE, W.K.; SIMENSTAD, C.A., and SWIFT, D.J.P., 1994. Scientific assessment of coastal wetland loss, restoration and management in Louisiana. Journal of Coastal Research, Special Issue No. 20, pp. 1-103.
3. BRADLEY, A.A.; PETERS-LIDARD, C.D.; NELSON, C.B.R.; SMITH, J.A., and YOUNG, C.B., 2002. Raingauge network design using NEXRAD precipitation estimates. Journal of the American Water Resources Association, 38(5), 1393-1407.
4. BRAS, R.L. and RODRIGUEZ-ITURBE, I., 1985. Random Functions and Hydrology. New York: Addison-Wesley, 559p.
5. CIACH, G. and GEBREMICHAEL, M., 2004. Empirical modeling of the uncertainties in radar rainfall estimates. In: Proceedings of the 6th International Symposium on Hydrological Applications of Weather Radar (Melbourne, Australia, Bureau of Meteorology and Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society), CD.
6. COLEMAN, J.M.; ROBERT, H.H., and STONE, G.W. 1998. Mississippi River delta: an overview. Journal of Coastal Research, 14, 698-716.
7. DELAUNE, R.D.; JUGSUJINAD, A.; WEST, J.L.; JOHNSON, C.B., and KONGCHUM, M., 2005. A screening of the capacity of Louisiana freshwater wetlands to process nitrate in diverted Mississippi River water. Ecological Engineering, 25(4), 315-321.
8. DUAN, Q.Y.; SOROOSHIAN, S., and GUPTA, V., 1992. Effective and efficient global optimization for conceptual rainfall-runoff models. Water Resources Research, 28, 1015-1031.
9. ENGELUND, K.; XU, C., and GOTTSCHALK, L., 2005. Assessing uncertainties in a conceptual water balance model using Bayesian methodology. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 50(1), 45-63.
10. FERREIRA, J.G.; WOLFF, W.J.; SIMAS, T.C., and BRICKER, S.B., 2005. Does biodiversity of estuarine phytoplankton depend on hydrology? Ecological Modeling, 187, 513-523.
11. FITZGERALD, D.M.; KULO, M.; PENLAND, S.; FLOCKS, J., and KINDINGER, J., 2004. Morphologic and stratigraphic evolution of muddy ebb-tidal deltas along a subsiding coast: Barataria Bay, Mississippi River delta. Sedimentology, 51: 1157-1178.
12. GAGLIANO, S.; MEYER-ARENDT, K., and WICKER. K., 1981. Land loss in the Mississippi River deltaic plain. Transactions of the Gulf Coast Association of Geological Societies, 31, 295-300.
13. GIBSON, J.R. and NAJJAR, R.G., 2000. The response of Chesapeake Bay salinity to climate-induced changes in streamflow. Limnology and Oceanography, 45, 1764-1772.
14. GILKS, W.R.; RICHARDSON, S., and SPIEGELHALTER, D.J., 1995. Introducing Markov chain Monte Carlo. In: GILKS, W.R., RICHARDSON, S., and SPIEGELHALTER, D.J. (eds), Markov Chain Monte Carlo in Practice. London: Chapman & Hall, pp. 1-19.
15. HAGY, J.D.; SANFORD, L.P., and BOYNTON, W.R., 2000. Estimation of net physical transport and hydraulic residence times for a coastal plain estuary using box models. Estuaries, 23(3), 328-340.
16. HEIMOVAARA, T.J.; HUISMAN, J.A.; VRUGT, J.A., and BOUTEN, W., 2004. Obtaining the spatial distribution of water content along a TDR probe using the SCEM-UA Bayesian inverse modeling scheme. Vadose Zone Journal, 3(4), 1128-1145.
17. HOUCK, O., 2006. Can we save New Orleans? Tulane Environmental Law Journal 19, 1-68.
18. KRAJEWSKI, W.F., 1987. Co-kriging of radar-rainfall and rain gauge data. Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres, 92(D8), 9571-9580.
19. LALL, U.; PHILIPS, D.L.; RECKHOW, K.H., and LOUCKS, D.P., 2002. Quantifying and Communicating Uncertainty for Decision Making in the Everglades. Report of the Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan's Model Uncertainty Workshop. West Palm Beach, Florida: US Army Corps of Engineers, South Florida Water Management District.
20. MCKEE, K.L.; MENDELSSOHN, I.A., and MATERNES, M.D., 2004. Acute salt marsh dieback in the Mississippi River deltaic plain: a drought-induced phenomenon? Global Ecology and Biogeography, 13, 65-73.
21. NRC (NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL), 2002. Risk Analysis and Uncertainty in Flood Damage Reduction Studies. Committee on Risk-Based Analysis for Flood Damage Reduction. Water Science and Technology Board, Commission on Geosciences, Environment, and Resources, NRC. Washington, DC: National Academy Press.
22. OFFICER, C.B., 1980. Box models revisited. In: HAMILTON, P., and MACDONALD, R.B. (eds.), Estuarine and Wetland Processes. Marine Sciences Series, Volume 11. New York: Pelnum Press, pp. 65-114.
23. OMLIN, M. and REICHERT, P., 1999. A comparison of techniques for the estimation of model prediction uncertainty. Ecological Modelling 115, 45-59.
24. ORLANDO, S.P.; ROZAS, L.P.; WARD, G.H., and KLIEN, C.J., 1993. Salinity Characterization of Gulf of Mexico Estuaries. Silver Spring, MD: Office of Ocean Resources Conservation and Assessment, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, 209p.
25. PARK, D.; INOUE, M., and WISEMAN, W.J., JR., 2002. A high-resolution integrated hydrology-hydrodynamic model of the Barataria basin system. Proceedings of Conference of OCEANS 2002 MTS/ IEEE Meeting (Biloxi, Mississippi, MTS/IEEE), October 2002, pp. 1234-1242.
26. PENLAND, S.; BOYD, R., and SUTTER, J.R. 1988. Transgressive depositional systems of the Mississippi Delta plain: model for barrier shoreline and shelf sand development. Journal of Sedimentary Research, 58, 932-949.
27. QIAN, S.; CRAIG, S.; STOW, A., and BORSUK, M.E., 2003. On Monte Carlo methods for Bayesian inference. Ecological Modelling, 159, 269-277.
28. RAAT, K.J.; VRUGT, J.A.; BOUTEN, W., and TIETEMA, A., 2004. Towards reduced uncertainty in catchment nitrogen modelling: quantifying the effect of field observation uncertainty on model calibration. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 8(4), 751-763.
29. REFSGAARD, J.C. and STORM, B., 1996. Construction, calibration, and validation of hydrologic models. In: ABBOTT, M.B., and REFSGAARD, J.C. (eds.), Distributed Hydrological Modeling. Water Science and Technology Library, Volume 22. Dordrecht, The Netherlands: Kluwer Academic Publishers, pp. 41-54.
30. RODRIGUEZ-ITURBE, I. and MEJIA, J., 1974. On the transformation of point rainfall to areal rainfall. Water Resources Research, 10, 729-735.
31. SIMENSTAD, C.; REED, D., and FORD, M., 2006. When is restoration not? Incorporating landscape-scale processes to restore self-sustaining ecosystems in coastal wetland restoration. Ecological Engineering, 26, 27-39.
32. SINGH, V.P. and CHOWDHURY, P.K., 1986. Comparing some methods of estimating mean areal rainfall. Water Resources Bulletin, 22, 275-281.
33. SOLIS, R.S. and POWELL, G.L., 1999. Hydrography, mixing characteristics, and residence times of Gulf of Mexico estuaries. In: BIANCHI, T.S., PENNOCK, J.R., and TWILLEY, R.R., (eds.), Biogeochemistry of Gulf of Mexico Estuaries. New York: John Wiley and Sons, pp. 29-61.
34. STONE, G.W.; GRYMES, J.W.; DINGLE, J.R., and PEPPER, D.A., 1997. Overview and significance of hurricanes on the Louisiana coast, USA. Journal of Coastal Research, 13, 656-669.
35. SUMNER, D.M. and BELAINEH, G., 2005. Evaporation, precipitation, and associated salinity changes at a humid, subtropical estuary. Estuaries 28(6), 844-855.
36. SWENSON, E.M. and TURNER, R.E., 1998. Past, present and probable future salinity variations in the Barataria basin system. Prepared for Coastal Restoration and Management. Baton Rouge, Louisiana: Louisiana Department of Natural Resources, 112p.
37. THOM, R.M., 2000. Adaptive management of coastal ecosystem restoration projects. Ecological Engineering, 15, 365-372.
38. TURNER, R.E, 2006. Will lowering estuarine salinty increase Gulf of Mexico oyster landings? Estuaries and Coasts, 29, 345-352.
39. UNCLES, R.J. and PETERSON, D.H., 1996. The long-term salinity field in San Francisco Bay, Continental Shelf Research, 16(15), 2005-2039.
40. VISSER, J.M.; SASSER, C.E.; CHABRECK, R.H., and LINSCOMBE, R.G., 2000. Marsh vegetation types of the Chenier Plain, Louisiana, USA. Estuaries, 23, 318-327.
41. VISSER, J.M.; STEYER, G.D.; SHAFFER, G.P.; HOPPNER, S.S.; HESTER, M.W.; REYES, E.; KEDDY, P.; MENDELSSOHN, I.A.; SASSER, C.E., and SWARZENSKI, C., 2003. Habitat switching module, Chapter 9. In: TWILLEY, R.R. (ed.), Coastal Louisiana Ecosystem Assessment and Restoration (CLEAR) Model of Louisiana Coastal Area (LCA) Comprehensive. Ecosystem Restoration Plan. Volume I: Tasks 1-8. Final Report to Department of Natural Resources, Coastal Restoration Division, Baton Rouge, Louisiana. Contract 2511-02-24. 319p.
42. VRUGT, J.A.; DEKKER, S.C., and BOUTEN, W., 2003. Identification of rainfall interception model parameters from measurements of throughfall and forest canopy storage. Water Resources Research, 39(9), 1251, doi:10.1029/2003WR002013.
43. VRUGT, J.A.; GUPTA, H.V.; BOUTEN, W., and SOROOSHIAN, S., 2003. A Shuffled Complex Evolution Metropolis algorithm for optimization and uncertainty assessment of hydrological model parameters. Water Resources Research, 39(8), 1201.
44. WISEMAN, W.J., JR., and SWENSON, E.M., 1989. Modelling the effects of produced water discharges on estuarine salinity. In: BOESCH, D.F., and RABALAIS, N.N (eds.), Environmental Impact of Produced Water Discharges in Coastal Louisiana. Chauvin, Louisiana: Louisiana University Marine Consortium, 287p.
45. WISEMAN, W.J., JR.; SWENSON, E.M., and POWER, J., 1990. Salinity trends in Louisiana estuaries. Estuaries, 13(3), 265-271.