The psychology of dynamic probability judgment: Order effect, normative theories, and experimental methodology

Mind and Society

Volumn 6, Issue 1, 2007, Pages 53-66

  Baratgin, Jean ^a   Politzer, Guy ^b  

^a AIX MARSEILLE UNIVERSITY   (France)

^b CNRS   (France)

Author keywords

Bayesian coherence; Dynamic probability judgment; Linguistic pragmatics; Order effect; Probability revising; Probability updating; Redundancy effect

Indexed keywords

EID: 34249894706     PISSN: 15937879     EISSN: 18601839     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1007/s11299-006-0025-z     Document Type: Conference Paper

References (64)

1. Adelman L, Bresnick TA (1992) Examining the effect of information sequence on patriot air defense officers' judgments. Organ Behav Hum Dec 53:204-228
2. Adelman L, Bresnick TA, Black PK, Marvin FF, Sak SG (1996) Research with patriot air defense officers: examining information order effects. Hum Factors 38:250-261
3. Adelman L, Tolcott MA, Bresnick TA (1993) Examining the effect of information order on expert judgment. Organ Behav Hum Dec 56:348-369
4. Anderson NH (1968) Application of a linear-serial model to a personality-impression task using serial presentation. J Pers Soc Psychol 64:1-8
5. Adler JE (1991) An optimist's pessimism conversation and conjunction. In: Eells E, Maruszewski T (eds) Probability and rationality: studies on L. Jonathan Cohen's philosophy of science. Rodopi, Amsterdam, Atlanta, GA, pp 251-282
6. Baratgin J (1999) Psychologie du raisonnement probabiliste dynamique. Recherches historiques, pragmatiques et expérimentales sur la règle de Bayes. [The psychology of dynamic probabilistic reasoning. Historical, pragmatic, and experimental research on Bayes' rule]. Unpublished doctorate dissertation. Ecole Polytechnique, France
7. Baratgin J (2002) Is the human mind definitely not Bayesian? A review of the various arguments. Cah Psychol Cogn 21:653-680
8. Baratgin J, Politzer G (2006) Is the mind Bayesian? The case for agnosticism. Mind Soc 21:653-680
9. Bar-Hillel M, Falk R (1982) Some teasers concerning conditional probabilities. Cognition 11:109-122
10. Baumann M, Krems JF (2002) Frequency learning and order effects in belief updating. In: Sedlmeier P, Betsch T (eds) Frequency processing and cognition. Oxford University Press, Oxford
11. Birbaum MH, Mellers BA (1983) Bayesian inference: combining base rates with opinions of sources who vary in credibility. J Pers Soc Psychol 45:792-803
12. Curley SP, Golden JI (1994) Using belief functions to represent degree of belief. Organ Behav Hum Dec 58:271-303
13. de Finetti B (1964) Foresight: its logical laws, its subjective sources. In: Kyburg HE Jr, Smokler HE (eds) Studies in subjective probability. Wiley, New York, pp 53-118 (1st edn, 1937)
14. Dubois D, Prade H (1988) Modelling uncertainty and inductive inference: a survey of recent non-additive probability systems. Acta Psychol 68:53-78
15. Dubois D, Prade H (1992) Evidence, knowledge, and belief Function. Int J Approx Reason 6:295-319
16. Falk R (1992) A closer look at the probabilities of the notorious three prisoners. Cognition 43:197-223
17. Funder DC (1987) Errors and mistakes: evaluating the accuracy of social judgment. Psychol Bull 101:75-90
18. Gardner M (1959a) Mathematical games: how three mathematicians disproved a celebrated conjecture of Leonard Euler. Sci Am 201(5):181-188
19. Gardner M (1959b) Mathematical games: problems involving questions of probability and ambiguity. Sci Am 201(4):174-182
20. Gärdenfors P (1988) Knowledge in flux, modeling the dynamics of epistemic states. The MIT Press, Cambridge, MA
21. Hacking I (1975) The emergence of probability: a philosophy study of early ideas about probability, induction, and statistical inference. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
22. Hammond KR, McClelland GH, Mumpower J (1980) Human judgment and decision making. Theories, methods, and procedures. Hemisphere Publishing Corporation/Praeger, New York
23. Hilton DJ (1995) The social context of reasoning: Conversational inference and rational judgment. Psychol Bull 118:248-271
24. Hinsz VB, Tindale RS, Nagao DH, Davis JH, Robertson BA (1988) The influence of the accuracy of individuating information on the use of base rate information in probability judgment. J Exp Soc Psychol 24:127-145
25. Hoffrage U, Gigerenzer G, Krauss S, Martignon L (2002) Representation facilitates reasoning: what natural frequencies are and what they are not. Cognition 84:343-352
26. Hogarth RM (1975) Cognitive processes and the assessment of subjective probability distributions. J Am Stat Assoc 70:271-289
27. Hogarth RM, Einhorn HJ (1992) Order effects in belief updating: the belief-adjustment model. Cognitive Psychol 24:1-55
28. Jeffrey R (1988) Conditioning, kinematics and exchangeability. In: Skyrms B, Harper W (eds) Causation, chance and credence, vol I. D. Reidel Publishing Company, Dordrecht, pp 221-255
29. Kahneman D, Tversky A (1973) On the psychology of prediction. Psychol Rev 80:237-251
30. Katsuno H, Mendelzon AO (1992) On the difference between updating a knowledge base and revising it. In: Gärdenfors P (ed) Belief revision. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp 183-203
31. Klar Y (1990) Linking structures and sensitivity to judgment-relevant information in statistical and logical reasoning tasks. J Pers Soc Psychol 59:841-858
32. Koehler JJ (1996) The base rate fallacy reconsidered: descriptive, normative and methodological challenges. Behav Brain Sci 19:1-53
33. Krauss S Wang XT (2003) The psychology of the Monty Hall problem: discovering psychological mechanisms for solving a tenacious brain teaser. J Exp Psychol Gen 132:3-22
34. Krosnick JA, Li F, Lehman DR (1990) Conversational conventions, order of information acquisition, and the effect of base rates and individuating information on social judgments. J Pers Soc Psychol 39:1140-1152
35. Kruglanski AW, Ajzen I (1983) Bias and error in human judgment. Eur J Soc Psychol 13:1-44
36. Lewis D (1976) Probabilities of conditionals and conditional probabilities. Philos Rev 3:297-315
37. Lynch JG, Ofir C (1989) Effects of cue consistency and value on base-rate utilisation. J Pers Soc Psychol 56:170-181
38. Marks DF. Clarkson KR (1972) An explanation of conservatism in the bookbag-and-pokerchip situation. Acta Psychol 36:145-160
39. Mosteller F (1965) Fifty challenging problems in probability with solutions. Addison Wesley, New York
40. Nathan A (1984) Discussion: how not to solve it. Philos Sci 53:114-119
41. Nickerson RS (1996) Ambiguities and unstated assumptions in probabilistic reasoning. Psychol Bull 120(3):410-433
42. Ofir C (1988) Pseudodiagnosticity in judgment under uncertainty. Organ Behav Hum Perf 42:343-363
43. Pearl J (2000) Causality: models, reasoning, and inference. Cambridge University Press. Cambridge
44. Politzer G (1991) L'informativité des énoncés: contraintes sur le jugement et le raisonnement. [The informativeness of statements: Constraints on judgment and reasoning]. Intellectica 11:11-147
45. Politzer G, Macchi L (2000) Reasoning and pragmatics. Mind Soc 1(1):73-94
46. Ramsey FP (1926) Truth and probability. Later in Braithwaite RB (ed) (1931) The foundations of mathematics and other logical essays. Routledge and Kegan Paul, London, pp 156-198
47. Robinson LB, Hastie R (1985) Revision of beliefs when a hypothesis is eliminated from consideration. J Exp Psychol Hum 11:443-456
48. Ruble DN, Feldman NS (1976) Order of consensus, distinctiveness, and consistency information, and causal attribution. J Pers Soc Psychol 34:930-937
49. Schlottmann A, Anderson NH (1995) Belief revision in children: serial judgment in social and decision-making domains. J Exp Psychol Learn 21:1349-1364
50. Schum DA, Martin AW (1982) Formal and empirical research on cascaded inference in jurisprudence. Law Soc Rev 17:105-151
51. Shafer G (1976) A mathematical theory of evidence. Princeton University Press. Princeton, NJ
52. Shafer G (1985) Conditional probability. Int Stat Rev 53:261-277
53. Shimojo S, Ichikawa I (1989) Intuitive reasoning about probability: theoretical and experimental analyses of the "problem of three prisoners". Cognition 43:197-223
54. Slovic P (1966) Cue consistency and cue utilization in judgment. Am J Psychol 79:427-434
55. Sperber D, Wilson D (1995) Relevance: communication and cognition. Blackwell. Oxford (1st edn, 1986)
56. Teigen KH (1983) Studies in subjective probability. III. The unimportance of alternatives. Scand J Psychol 24:97-105
57. Tubbs RM, Gaeth GJ, Levin IP, Van Osdol LA (1993) Order effect in belief updating with consistent and inconsistent evidence. J Behav Dec Making 6:257-269
58. Walley P (1991) Statistical reasoning with imprecise probabilities. Chapman and Hall, London
59. Walliser B, Zwirn D (2002) Can Bayes' rule be justified by cognitive rationality principles. Theor Dec 53:95-135
60. Wang H, Zhang J, Johnson TR (2000) Order effects in human belief revision. In: Proceedings of the 22nd annual conference of the cognitive science society. Lawrence Erlbaum Associates, Hillsdale, NJ, pp 547-552
61. Van Wallendael LR (1989) The quest for limits on noncomplementarity in opinion revision. Organ Behav Hum Dec 43:385-405
62. Van Wallendael LR, Hastie R (1990) Tracing the footsteps of Sherlock Holmes: cognitive representations of hypothesis testing. Mem Cogn 18:240-250
63. Wolfe CR (1995) Information seeking on Bayesian conditional probability problems: a fuzzy-trace theory account. J Behav Dec Making 8:85-108
64. Zhang J, Johnson TR, Wang H (1998) The relation between order effects and frequency learning in tactical decision-making. Thinking Reason 4:123-145