Can conservative Arab Gulf monarchies endure a fourth war in the Persian Gulf?

Middle East Journal

Volumn 61, Issue 2, 2007, Pages 283-306

  Kéchichian, Joseph A ^a  

^a NONE

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

DIPLOMATIC RELATIONS; NATIONAL SECURITY; POWER RELATIONS; REGIONAL POLITICS; REGIONAL SECURITY; SOCIOECONOMIC IMPACT; STRATEGIC APPROACH;

ARABIAN SEA; ASIA; EURASIA; INDIAN OCEAN; IRAN; MIDDLE EAST; PERSIAN GULF; SAUDI ARABIA;

EID: 34249695345     PISSN: 00263141     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.3751/61.2.15     Document Type: Article

References (116)

1. Mustafa Kibaroglu, "Good for the Shah, Banned for the Mullahs: The West and Iran's Quest for Nuclear Power," The Middle East Journal, Vol. 60, No. 2 (Spring 2006), pp. 207-32.
2. Elaine Sciolino and Katrin Bennhold, "Chirac Strays From Assailing a Nuclear Iran," The New York Times, February 1, 2007, http:// www.nytimes.com/2007/02/01/world/europe/01france.html.
3. Présidence de La République Française [Presidency of the French Republic], "Communiqué de La Présidence de la République à la suite de l'interview accordée par le Président de la République au Nouvel Observateur, à l 'International Herald Tribune et au New York Times" ["Communiqué of the Presidency of the Republic following an interview given by the President of the Republic to Le Nouvel Observateur, The International Herald Tribune, and The New York Times"], February 1, 2007, http://www.elysee.fr/elysee/root /bank/print/71285.htm.
4. Sciolino and Bennhold, "Chirac Strays From Assailing a Nuclear Iran."
5. The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) is the moniker for the Majlis al-Ta'awun li-Duwal al-Khalij al-'Arabiyya or the Cooperation Council for the Arab States of the Gulf (CCASG). It was formally established in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, on May 25, 1981, and is sometimes referred to as AGCC in Arab sources. Needless to say, the "Arab Gulf States" are the six conservative monarchies on the Arabian Peninsula, which abuts a body of water known in the West as the Persian Gulf. Although GCC states participated in the first Gulf War (1990-1991), all six maintained their distances both in the Iran-Iraq War (1980-1988), as well as the Iraq War (2003-).
6. The characterizations of Gulf attitudes given here are based on extensive interviews with Arab Gulf officials between 2003 and 2007 in preparation for the author's forthcoming study, tentatively titled Power and Succession in Arab Gulf Monarchies.
7. The idea of a nuclear-free zone germinated at the Dubai-based Gulf Research Center in late 2004 and early 2005, when several conferences led by Mustafa Alani and Peter Jones examined various issues related to the creation of a weapons of mass destruction free zone (WMDFZ). Senior GRC researchers publicized these ideas and briefed GCC leaders on their intrinsic values. In particular, the actual mechanics of establishing a WMDFZ while reworking the regional security system were carefully vetted. In turn, the GCC Ministerial Committee took up these thoughts under advisement, and recommended a formal adoption to the heads of states. GCC leaders were briefed on the proposed WMDFZ question at the 26th Summit meeting in Abu Dhabi on December 19, 2005, and fully supported the Secretariat as the latter drafted a formal proposal, to be adopted during the 2006 Summit. A few days after the 2005 Summit meeting, the Saudi Foreign Minister, Sa'ud al-Faysal, urged Iran "to accept the position that we have taken to make the Gulf, as part of the Middle East, nuclear free and free of weapons of mass destruction." See Mustafa Alani, "Gulf Cooperation Council States Probable Attitude Towards a Military Action Against Iran's Nuclear Facilities," Policy Paper, Gulf Research Center, November 2004.
8. See also Peter Jones, "A Gulf WMD Free Zone Within a Broader Gulf and Middle East Security Architecture," Policy Paper, Gulf Research Center, March 2005.
9. For additional background details on WMDFZ, see Claudia Baumgart and Harald Müller, "A Nuclear Weapons-Free Zone in the Middle East: A Pie in the Sky?," The Washington Quarterly Vol. 28, No. 1(Winter 2004-2005), pp. 45-58.
10. For Sa'ud al-Faysal's remarks, see "Kingdom Urges Iran to Forgo Nuke Weapons," Arab News, January 17, 2006, p. 1.
11. See Amine Qammuniyyeh, "The Iran-Saudi-Syrian triangle," An-Nahar, as reproduced in Mideast Mirror, Section B (The Arab World), March 7, 2007, online edition.
12. Ahmadinejad is popular amongst various Arab communities for boasting an anti-Israeli as well as an anti-American agenda. See Jefferson Morley, "World Opinion Roundup: Why Arabs Don't Condemn Ahmadinejad," The Washington Post, December 15, 2005, http:// blog.washingtonpost.com/worldopinionroundup/2005/12 /why_arabs_dont_condemn_ahmadin.html; there is also a recent Zogby poll which confirms this trend.
13. See Peter Kiernan, "Middle East Opinion: Iran Fears Aren't Hitting the Arab Street," World Politics Watch, March 1, 2007, http://worldpoliticswatch.com/article.aspx?id=594. Naturally, no GCC official I interviewed had anything trustworthy to say about the Iranian President, his most recent visit to Saudi Arabia notwithstanding.
14. Raid Qusti, "GCC to Develop Civilian Nuclear Energy," Arab News, December 11, 2006, p. 1.
15. Thomas Shanker, "Security Council Votes to Tighten Iran Sanctions; " The New York Times, March 25, 2007, http://www.nytimes.com /2007/03/25/world/middleeast/25sanctions.html.
16. For a prescient analysis of security throughout the 1960s and 1970s, see James H. Noyes, The Clouded Lens: Persian Gulf Security and U.S. Policy (Stanford, CA: Hoover Institution Press, 1979), pp. 3-4 and 29-43.
17. 'Abdallah Y. Bisharah, "Outline of the Seminar on the Security of the Gulf," School of International Affairs, Columbia University, New York, September 22, 1982, p. 7 [Mimeo].
18. Gwenn Okruhlik, "Saudi Arabian-Iranian Relations: External Rapprochement and Internal Consolidation," Middle East Policy, Vol.1, No. 2 (Summer 2003), pp. 113-25.
19. For the Khatami statement on "Dialogue" see "Round Table: Dialogue among Civilizations," United Nations, New York, September 5, 2000, http://www.unesco.org/dialogue2001/en/khatami.html.
20. See also Patrick Clawson and Michael Rubin, Eternal Iran: Continuity and Chaos (New York: Palgrave, 2005), pp. 9-10.
21. Seymour Hersh, "The Iran Plan," The New Yorker, April 17, 2006, pp. 30-37, especially p. 33.
22. Jim Rutenberg, "Bush Insists on Diplomacy in Confronting a Nuclear Iran," The New York Times, April 11, 2006, http:// www.nytimes.com/2006/04/11/world/middleeast/11prexy.html.
23. Charles Krauthammer, "Say No To Tehran's Gambit," The Washington Post, May 26, 2006, p. A21.
24. See also William Kristol, "Iran Is Not Iraq: Much of the U.S. government no longer believes in, and is no longer acting to enforce, the Bush Doctrine," The Weekly Standard, Vol. 1, No. 32, May 8, 2006, p. 12, http://www.weeklystandard.com/Content/Public/Articles /000/000/012/148vqpff.asp.
25. Seymour Hersh, "Last Stand," The New Yorker, July 10, 2006, pp. 42-49, especially p. 42.
26. Seymour Hersh, "The Redirection," The New Yorker, March 5, 2007, p. 57.
27. Hersh, "The Redirection," p. 57.
28. Anthony Cordesman and Khalid Al-Rodhan, "Iranian Nuclear Weapons? The Options if Diplomacy Fails" (Washington, DC: Center for Strategic and International Studies [Working Draft revised on April 7, 2006]), http://www.csis.org/media/csis/pubs/060407_irannucoptions.pdf.
29. "Khamenei Warning to US: Iran 'Ready to Retaliate'," The Financial Times, February 9, 2007, p. 1;
30. and "Iran's Top Leader Has Fighting Words for U.S.," The Los Angeles Times, February 9, 2007, p. A5.
31. Cordesman and Al-Rodhan, "Iranian Nuclear Weapons?," p. 32.
32. Paul Rogers, "Iran: Consequences of a War," Briefing Paper, Oxford Research Group, February 2006, http:// www.oxfordresearchgroup.org.uk/publications/briefings /IranConsequences.htm.
33. As quoted in Christopher de Bellaigue, "Letter from Tehran: Under the Olive Trees, Waiting for the War in Iran," Harper's Magazine, Vol. 313, No. 1874, July 2006, pp. 57-63.
34. "Time to Talk: The Case for Diplomatic Solutions on Iran," Briefing Paper, Oxford Research Group, February 5, 2007, http:// www.oxfordresearchgroup.org.uk/publications/briefings/timetotalk.htm.
35. David Ignatius, "An Iranian Missile Crisis?," The Washington Post, April 12, 2006, p. A17.
36. Nazila Fathi, "Iran Won't Give Up Right to Use Atomic Technology, Leader Says," The New York Times, June 28, 2006, http:// www.nytimes.com/2006/06/28/world/middleeast/28iran.html.
37. See also Gareth Smyth, "Iran 'ready to limit nuclear programme'," The Financial Times, June 19, 2006, p. 4.
38. Warren Hoge, "U.N. Gives Iran Deadline to End Nuclear Work," The New York Times, August 1, 2006, http://www.nytimes.com/2006 /08/01/world/middleeast/01nuke.html.
39. "Islamic Republic of Iran's Response to the Package Presented on June 6, 2006," Institute for Science and International Security, http://www.isis-online.org/publications/iran/iranresponse.pdf.
40. See also Michael Slackman, "Iran Won't Give Promise to End Uranium Effort," The New York Times, August 23, 2006, http:// www.nytimes.com/2006/08/23/world/middleeast/23iran.html.
41. "Iran 'misunderstandings' cleared, BBC News, September 10, 2006, http://news.bbc.co.uk/go/pr/fr/-/2/hi/middle_east/5332522.stm.
42. "Iran's Nuclear Strategy: Making Uranium While the Sun Shines," The Economist, Vol. 381, No. 8498, October 7, 2006, pp. 53-54.
43. Elissa Gootman, "Security Council Approves Sanctions Against Iran Over Nuclear Program," The New York Times, December 24, 2006, http://www.nytimes.com/pages/world/index.html;
44. see also Christine Hauser, "Iran Vows to Continue Nuclear Program," The New York Times, December 24, 2006, http:// www.nytimes.com/2006/12/24/world/middleeast/24cnd-iran.html.
45. Hauser, "Iran Vows to Continue Nuclear Program."
46. Glenn Kessler, "2003 Memo Says Iranian Leaders Backed Talks," The Washington Post, February 14, 2007, p. A14.
47. Noam Chomsky, "A negotiated solution to the Iranian nuclear crisis is within reach," Arab News, June 20, 2006, http:// www.arabnews.com/ ?page=7§ion=0&article=84081&d=20&m=6&y=2006.
48. Glenn Kessler, "In 2003, U.S. Spurned Iran's Offer of Dialogue: Some Officials Lament Lost Opportunity," The Washington Post, June 18, 2006, p. A16.
49. "EU to Seek New Iran Nuclear Talks," BBC News, March 25, 2007, http://www.bbc.co.uk/go/pr/fr/-/2/hi/middle_east/6492667.stm;
50. see also Ian Traynor and Jonathan Steele, "Europeans Fear US Attack on Iran as Nuclear Row Intensifies," The Guardian, January 31, 2007, http://www.guardian.co.uk/print/0,,329701104-103681,00.html.
51. Simon Tisdall, "Iran's Theocracy 'Won't be Toppled from Outside'," The Guardian, June 20, 2006, http:// www.guardian.co.uk/print/0,,329510510-114659,00.html.
52. Iranians admired their President's modest demeanor and ability to connect with the average citizen even if they decried his overall policies. See Ewen MacAskill and Simon Tisdall, "Ahmadinejad 'has 70% Approval Rating'," The Guardian, June 20, 2006, http:// www.guardian.co.uk/print/0,,329509449-111322,00.html.
53. David Ignatius, "Talk Boldly with Iran," The Washington Post, June 23, 2006, p. A25.
54. Ignatius, "Talk Boldly with Iran."
55. "Mullahs of Iran Pledge $1b in Aid to Iraq," Iran News, July 22, 2005, http://www.iranian.ws/cgi-bin/iran_news /exec/view.cgi/3/8394.
56. Abd Al-Razak Al-Safi, "Iran's Master Stroke!," Al-Hayat, June 20, 2006, p. 9.
57. Jeffrey Record, Bounding the Global War on Terrorism (Carlisle, PA: US Army War College, December 2003), p. v, http:// www.carlisle.army.mil/ssi/.
58. Richard A. Clarke, Against All Enemies: Inside America's War on Terror, (New York: Free Press, 2004), p. 283.
59. For the most recent Brookings Institution-sponsored poll conducted by Zogby International, see "Bush Most Disliked Global Leader in Arab World, says Survey," Gulf News, February 10, 2007, http:// archive.gulfnews.com/region/General/10103226.html.
60. Patrick Seale, "Can the United States Change its Course?," Gulf News, June 18, 2006, http://archive.gulfnews.com/opinion /columns/world/10047880.html.
61. For a comprehensive assessment of Arab and Muslim views see, The Pew Global Attitudes Project, What the World Thinks in 2002: How Global Publics View their Lives, their Countries, the World, America (Washington, DC: The Pew Research Center for the People and the Press, December 2000).
62. See also, Pew Global Attitudes Project, Views of a Changing World: How Global Publics View: War in Iraq, Democracy, Islam and Governance, Globalization, June 2003;
63. Pew Global Attitudes Project, Muslims In Europe: Economic Worries Top Concerns About Religious And Cultural Identity, July 2006, all available at http://www.pewglobal.org.
64. See also the critical but little-read Djerejian Report, which highlighted critical perceptions, and policy shortfalls. Edward P. Djerejian (Chairman), Changing Minds, Winning Peace: A New Strategic Direction for U.S. Public Diplomacy in the Arab and Muslim World, Report of the Advisory Group on Public Diplomacy for the Arab and Muslim World, (Washington, DC: US House of Representatives), October 1, 2003.
65. See, for example, "Al-Iraniyyun Yahtafilun Nawawiyyan wa-Washington: 'Qunbulatuhum' Khilal Shuhur" ["Iranians Celebrate Nuclear Capabilities and Washington Declares: Their Bomb within Months"], Al-Watan (Qatar), No. 3875, April 13, 2006, pp. 1, 17;
66. and "A New Danger to the Region," Gulf News, April 13, 2006, p. 8.
67. See also Salama A. Salama, "Arabs With Iran," Al-Ahram Weekly, Number 786, March 16, 2006, http://weekly.ahram.org.ed/2006 /786/op4.htm.
68. Jefferson Morley, "Why Arabs Don't Condemn Ahmadinejad."
69. Also see Peter Kiernan, "Middle East Opinion: Iran Fears Aren't Hitting the Arab Street," World Politics Watch, March 1, 2007, http://worldpoliticswatch.com/article.aspx?id=594.
70. The idea for a break-up of Iraq was not new and floated around for several years, even before Leslie H. Gelb, the former President of the Council on Foreign Relations, and Senator Joseph R. Biden, Jr. wrote an opinion piece on the subject. See Joseph R. Biden Jr. and Leslie H. Gelb, "Unity Through Autonomy in Iraq," The New York Times, May 1, 2006, p. A19.
71. See also an earlier essay on the same subject in Leslie H. Gelb, "The Lessons of 1787," The New York Times, February 2, 2005, p. A21.
72. More recently, Peter W. Galbraith, a distinguished former diplomat, penned a book on the same subject. All failed to take into account Iraqi, Kurdish, Arab, Iranian, and Turkish views. See Peter W. Galbraith, The End of Iraq: How American Incompetence Created a War Without End (New York: Simon & Schuster, 2006).
73. For three Arab perspectives, see "Don't Divide Iraq," Khaleej Times (UAE), October 6, 2005, http://www.khaleejtimes.com/ Displayarticle.asp?xfile=data/editorial/2005/October/ editorial_October14.xml§ion=editorial&subsection=editorial;
74. Hassan Tahsin, "Sinister Plan to Divide Iraq," Arab News (Saudi Arabia), August 29, 2006, http://arabnews.com/
75. and "Saudi Arabia Says it Opposes Shiite Plan to Divide Iraq into Federal Regions," International Herald Tribune, October 17, 2006, http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2006/10/17/africa /ME_GEN_Saudi_Iraq.php.
76. Based on a confidential interview with a high-ranking Omani official who attended the 2005 Summit meeting. Muscat, February 8, 2006.
77. Much has been written on how GCC producers manipulated oil markets and how some countries managed to exercise excessive influence. For example, Bob Woodward, the managing editor of The Washington Post and a leading investigative journalist, asserted that the ambassador of Saudi Arabia knew about President George W. Bush's decision in early 2003 to invade and occupy Iraq even before the Secretary of State. Presumably, and from a Bush Administration perspective, the need to alert Riyadh was significant, because the Al Sa'ud were skeptical of American intentions. According to Woodward, none other than Dick Cheney alleviated Bandar bin Sultan's doubts, when the Vice President declared: "Prince Bandar, once we start, Saddam is toast." Satisfied, the Saudi Ambassador allegedly promised the President of the United States that Saudi Arabia would lower oil prices in the months before the election to ensure the US economy was strong on Election Day.
78. See Bob Woodward, Plan of Attack, (New York: Simon & Schuster, 2004), p. 266.
79. Woodward, Plan of Attack, p. 324.
80. "Oil Prices Could Triple Upon a U.S. Invasion of Iran," Arab News, June 21, 2006, p. 1.
81. "Shias and Sunnis: The Widening Gulf," The Economist, Vol. 382, No. 8514, February 3, 2007, pp. 45-46.
82. For various commentaries on these critical issues see the essays in Thomas Carothers and Marina Ottaway, eds., Uncharted Journey: Promoting Democracy in the Middle East (Washington DC: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2005).
83. See also John R. Bradley, Saudi Arabia Exposed: Inside a Kingdom in Crisis (New York: Palgrave Macmillan, 2005).
84. For an extremely useful background essay see Joseph Kostiner, "The Rise and Fall of Militant Opposition Movements in the Arabian Peninsula," Anat Kurz, ed., Contemporary Trends in World Terrorism (New York: Praeger, 1987), pp. 75-93.
85. P.K. Abdul Ghafour, "First Human Rights Association Gets King's Approval," Arab News, March 10, 2004, p. 1.
86. For a critical assessment of human rights developments in Saudi Arabia, see United States Department of State, "Saudi Arabia," in Country Reports on Human Rights Practices 2005, March 8, 2006, http://www.state.gov/g/drl/rls/hrrpt/2005/61698.htm;
87. and Human Rights Watch, "Saudi Arabia: Overview of Human Rights Developments 2005," http://hrw.org/english/docs/2006/01/18/ saudia12230.htm.
88. For the most recent arrests, see Samir Al-Saadi and Somayya Jabarti, "Detained Men Include Activists and Academics," Arab News, February 5, 2007, p. 1.
89. For background on this critical question, see Roel Meijer, "Jihadi Opposition in Saudi Arabia, ISIM Review, No. 15, Spring 2005, p. 15;
90. and Joseph Kostiner, "State, Islam and Opposition in Saudi Arabia: The Post Desert-Storm Phase," Middle East Review of International Affairs (MERIA), Vol. 1, No. 2 (July 1997), http://meria.idc.ac.il/ journal/1997/issue2/Jv1n2a8.html.
91. For a more recent effort to address underlying causes, see Faiza Saleh Ambah, "Saudi Writer Recasts Kingdom's History," The Washington Post, February 4, 2007, p. A14.
92. For a compendium of various speeches delivered by Saudi clerics, see Public Statements by Senior Saudi Officials Condemning Extremism And Promoting Moderation (Washington, DC: Royal Embassy of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, May 2004).
93. Raid Qusti, "Virtue Commission Members Are not Above Law: Al-Ghaith:" Arab News, March 25,2007, p. 1.
94. Author's informed impression based on extensive interviews.
95. "Minister: Qatar is Not an 'Occupied' Country," Gulf Times, June 30, 2006, p. 1.
96. "Minister: Qatar is Not an 'Occupied' Country."
97. Dan Morrison, "Persian populist wins Arab embrace: Iran's Ahmadinejad is attracting fans across the Middle East for his fiery rhetoric," The Christian Science Monitor, June 21, 2006, http://www.csmonitor.com/2006/0621/p06s01-wome.html.
98. In a 2005 survey by Shibley Telhami and Zogby International, a plurality of respondents in six Arab countries said they didn't believe Iran was not building a bomb. See "Arab Attitudes Towards the US, Iraq, Religion and Arab Media (Part of a Six Nation Survey)," http:// www.zogby.com/Soundbites/ReadClips.dbm?ID=13310.
99. Richard L. Russell, "A Saudi Nuclear Option?," Survival, Vol. 43, No. 2 (Summer 2001), pp. 69-79.
100. Alex Pojedinec, "Saudi Nuclear Intentions and the IAEA Small Quantities Protocol," Center for Defense Information, June 30, 2005, http://www.cdi.org/friendlyversion /printversion.cfm?documentID=3050.
101. Cécile Hennion, "Face à Téhéran, Washington et les Pays Arabes Sunnites Soutiennent Le Nucléaire Égyptien" ["Facing Tehran, Washington and the Sunni Arab Countries Support Egypt Going Nuclear], Le Monde, March 24,2007, p. 4.
102. See also Hassan M. Fattah, "Arab States, Wary of Iran, Add to Their Arsenals but Still Lean on the US," The New York Times, February 23, 2007, http://www.nytimes.com/2007/02/23/world/middleeast /23gulf.html;
103. Reuters, "Al Attiyah to Open Talks with IAEA Soon," Gulf News, February 5, 2007, http://archive.gulfnews.com/region /Saudi_Arabia/10102000.html;
104. Mohammad Ezz Al Deen, "Gulf Nuclear Plans Take Shape, Says Al Attiyah," Gulf News, February 6, 2007, http:// archive.gulfnews.com/region/General/10102238.html;
105. Muhammad Al Mezel, "We Cannot Sit Idle Watching Iran Develop N-Bomb," Gulf News, March 20, 2007, http:// archive.gulfnews.com/region/Iran/10112597.html;
106. "Gulf States Can Respond to Any Iran Attack: Bahrain," Agence France-Presse, March 19, 2007;
107. and "Bahrain Cabinet Discusses Joining Arab Nuclear Initiative," Bahrain Tribune, March 26, 2007, p. 1.
108. Associated Press, "Iran Defiant, but Wants Nuclear Talks," The New York Times, February 11, 2007, http://www.nytimes.com /aponline/world/AP-Iran-Nuclear.html.
109. Howard W. French, "Iran's President Hints at Hope for Defusing Crisis," The New York Times, June 17, 2006, http:// www.nytimes.com/2006/06/17/world/asia/17china.html.
110. Karl Vick, "Iran's Gray Area on Nuclear Arms: Despite Official Assertions That Islam Requires a Ban, Some Clerics See Justification," The Washington Post, June 21, 2006, p. A15.
111. Vick, "Iran's Gray Area on Nuclear Arms."
112. Kadivar quotes from Karl Vick, "Iran's Gray Area on Nuclear Arms."
113. Paul Foot, "The Beam in Bremer's Eye," The Guardian, April 14, 2004, http://www.guardian.co.uk/comment/story /0,3604,1191332,00.html.
114. On March 28, 2007, King 'Abdullah of Saudi Arabia told Arab heads of state and several world dignitaries gathered in Riyadh for a League of Arab States Summit, that the Iraq occupation was "illegal." This prompted an American diplomatic demarche seeking clarifications but the Saudis stood their ground. It was yet another illustration of the political gap enlarging between erstwhile allies. See Hassan M. Fattah, "U.S. Iraq Role is Called Illegal by Saudi King," The New York Times, March 29, 2007, http://www.nytimes.com/2007/03/29/world/ middleeast/29saudi.html.
115. Hersh, "Last Stand," p. 45.
116. David Rieff, "But Who's Against the Next War?" The New York Times, March 25, 2007, http://www.nytimes.com/2007/03/25/magazine/ 25WWLNlede.t.html.