Early warning systems for malaria in Africa: from blueprint to practice

Trends in Parasitology

Volumn 23, Issue 6, 2007, Pages 243-246

  Cox, Jonathan ^a   Abeku, Tarekegn A ^a  

^a LONDON SCHOOL OF HYGIENE AND TROPICAL MEDICINE   (United Kingdom)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

AFRICA; BOTSWANA; CLIMATE CHANGE; EPIDEMIC; FORECASTING; HEALTH SURVEY; MALARIA; MALARIA CONTROL; MORBIDITY; MORTALITY; SHORT SURVEY; STATISTICAL MODEL; WORLD HEALTH ORGANIZATION;

AFRICA; BOTSWANA; CLIMATE; DISEASE OUTBREAKS; FORECASTING; HUMANS; MALARIA; POPULATION SURVEILLANCE; SEASONS; WORLD HEALTH ORGANIZATION;

EID: 34248640148     PISSN: 14714922     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.pt.2007.03.008     Document Type: Short Survey

References (26)

1. Checchi F., et al. Malaria epidemics and interventions, Kenya, Burundi, southern Sudan and Ethiopia, 1999-2004. Emerg. Infect. Dis. 12 (2006) 1477-1485
2. WHO-RBM (2002) Prevention and Control of Malaria Epidemics (WHO/CDS/RBM/2002.40). World Health Organization-Roll Back Malaria (http://www.who.int/malaria/cmc_upload/0/000/015/827/3epidemics_report.pdf)
3. WHO-RBM (2001) Malaria early warning systems - concepts, indicators and partners. A framework for field research in Africa (WHO/CDS/RBM/2001.32). World Health Organization-Roll Back Malaria (http://www.who.int/malaria/cmc_upload/0/000/014/807/mews2.pdf)
4. WHO (2004) Malaria epidemics: forecasting, prevention, early detection and control: from policy to practice, 48. World Health Organization (http://www.who.int/malaria/docs/Leysinreport.pdf)
5. Thomson M.C., et al. Malaria early warnings based on seasonal climate forecasts from multi-model ensembles. Nature 439 (2006) 576-579
6. Thomson M.C., et al. Use of rainfall and sea surface temperature monitoring for malaria early warning in Botswana. Am. J. Trop. Med. Hyg. 73 (2005) 214-221
7. Myers M.F., et al. Forecasting disease risk for increased epidemic preparedness in public health. Adv. Parasitol. 47 (2000) 309-330
8. Hay S.I., et al. Defining and detecting malaria epidemics in the highlands of western Kenya. Emerg. Infect. Dis. 8 (2002) 555-562
9. Abeku T.A., et al. Malaria epidemic early warning and detection in African highlands. Trends Parasitol. 20 (2004) 400-405
10. Teklehaimanot H.D., et al. Weather-based prediction of Plasmodium falciparum malaria in epidemic-prone regions of Ethiopia II. Weather-based prediction systems perform comparably to early detection systems in identifying times for interventions. Malaria J. 3 (2004) 44
11. Abeku T.A., et al. Forecasting malaria incidence from historical morbidity patterns in epidemic-prone areas of Ethiopia: a simple seasonal adjustment method performs best. Trop. Med. Int. Health 7 (2002) 851-857
12. Brooker S., et al. Tools from ecology: useful for evaluating infection risk models?. Trends Parasitol. 18 (2002) 70-74
13. Cox J., et al. The uncertain burden of epidemics of Plasmodium falciparum in Africa. Trends Parasitol. 23 (2007) 142-148
14. Kilian A.H.D., et al. Rainfall pattern, El Niño and malaria in Uganda. Trans. R. Soc. Trop. Med. Hyg. 93 (1999) 22-23
15. Cox, J.S. et al. (1999) Mapping malaria risk in the highlands of Africa. Mapping Malaria Risk in Africa/Highland Malaria Project (MARA/HIMAL) Technical Report, MARA, Durban and London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (http://www.lshtm.ac.uk/dcvbu/himal/Documents/HIMALReport.pdf)
16. Abeku T.A., et al. Spatial and temporal variations of malaria epidemic risk in Ethiopia: factors involved and implications. Acta Trop. 87 (2003) 331-340
17. Hay S.I., et al. Etiology of interepidemic periods of mosquito-borne disease. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U. S. A. 97 (2000) 9335-9339
18. Hay S.I., et al. Forecasting, warning, and detection of malaria epidemics: a case study. Lancet 361 (2003) 1705-1706
19. Palmer T., et al. Probabilistic prediction of climate using multi-model ensembles: from basics to applications. Philos. Trans. R. Soc. B: Biol. Sci. 360 (2005) 1991-1998
20. Hoshen M.B., and Morse A.P. A weather-driven model of malaria transmission. Malaria J. 3 (2004) 32
21. Koelle K., et al. Refractory periods and climate forcing in cholera dynamics. Nature 436 (2005) 696-700
22. Finkenstadt B.F., et al. A stochastic model for extinction and recurrence of epidemics: estimation and inference for measles outbreaks. Biostatistics 3 (2002) 493-510
23. Bjornstad O.N., et al. Dynamics of measles epidemics: estimating scaling of transmission rates using a time series SIR model. Ecol. Monogr. 72 (2002) 169-184
24. Turchin P. Complex Population Dynamics: A Theoretical/Emprical Synthesis (2003), Princeton University Press
25. Buchanan-Smith M., and Davies S. Famine Early Warning and Response - the Missing Link (1995), IT Publications
26. WHO-UNICEF (2005) World Malaria Report 2005 (WHO/HTM/MAL/2005.1102). World Health Organization-United Nations Children's Fund (http://rbm.who.int/wmr2005/)