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Volumn 39, Issue 3, 2007, Pages 293-310

Economic insecurity and welfare preferences: A micro-level analysis

(1)  Mughan, Anthony a  

a NONE

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EID: 34248631961     PISSN: 00104159     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: None     Document Type: Review
Times cited : (30)

References (43)
  • 1
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    • Workers and the World Economy: Breaking the Postwar Bargain
    • May-June
    • Ethan B. Kapstein, "Workers and the World Economy: Breaking the Postwar Bargain," Foreign Affairs, 75 (May-June 1996), 16-37.
    • (1996) Foreign Affairs , vol.75 , pp. 16-37
    • Kapstein, E.B.1
  • 2
    • 0033925445 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The Causes of Welfare State Expansion: Deindustrialization or Globalization?
    • Some authors do not agree that globalization is economic insecurity's source, attributing it instead to deindustrialization, See, April
    • Some authors do not agree that globalization is economic insecurity's source, attributing it instead to deindustrialization, See Torben Iversen and Thomas R. Cusack, "The Causes of Welfare State Expansion: Deindustrialization or Globalization?," World Politics, 52 (April 2000), 313-49.
    • (2000) World Politics , vol.52 , pp. 313-349
    • Iversen, T.1    Cusack, T.R.2
  • 3
    • 0003729929 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Still another rival explanation is technological change. See, Washington, D.C, Institute for International Economics
    • Still another rival explanation is technological change. See Kenneth F. Scheve and Matthew J. Slaughter, Globalization and the Perceptions of American Workers (Washington, D.C.: Institute for International Economics, 2001), pp, 77-86.
    • (2001) Globalization and the Perceptions of American Workers , pp. 77-86
    • Scheve, K.F.1    Slaughter, M.J.2
  • 4
    • 0036064735 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Economic Performance, Job Insecurity and Electoral Choice
    • July
    • Anthony Mughan and Dean Lacy, "Economic Performance, Job Insecurity and Electoral Choice," British Journal of Political Science, 32 (July 2002), 513-33;
    • (2002) British Journal of Political Science , vol.32 , pp. 513-533
    • Mughan, A.1    Lacy, D.2
  • 5
    • 85044809058 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Globalization, the Welfare State and Right-Wing Populism in Western Europe
    • May
    • Duane Swank and Hans-Georg Betz, "Globalization, the Welfare State and Right-Wing Populism in Western Europe," Socio-Economic Review, 1 (May 2003), 215-45.
    • (2003) Socio-Economic Review , vol.1 , pp. 215-245
    • Swank, D.1    Betz, H.2
  • 6
    • 84973959798 scopus 로고
    • The Expansion of the Public Economy: A Comparative Analysis
    • December
    • David Cameron, "The Expansion of the Public Economy: A Comparative Analysis," American Political Science Review, 72 (December 1978), 1243-61;
    • (1978) American Political Science Review , vol.72 , pp. 1243-1261
    • Cameron, D.1
  • 9
    • 0032460591 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Why Do More Open Economies Have Bigger Governments?
    • December
    • Dani Rodrik, "Why Do More Open Economies Have Bigger Governments?," Journal of Political Economy, 106 (December 1998), 997-1032.
    • (1998) Journal of Political Economy , vol.106 , pp. 997-1032
    • Rodrik, D.1
  • 11
    • 8344227559 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Economic Insecurity and the Globalization of Production
    • See, for example, October
    • See, for example, Kenneth F. Scheve and Matthew J. Slaughter, "Economic Insecurity and the Globalization of Production," American Journal of Political Science, 48 (October 2004), 662-74.
    • (2004) American Journal of Political Science , vol.48 , pp. 662-674
    • Scheve, K.F.1    Slaughter, M.J.2
  • 12
    • 0031483804 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • This assumption of unidimensionality is highly questionable, not least because the larger phenomenon of economic (as opposed to job) insecurity is already commonly taken to be multidimensional. For one study, it comprises, in addition to job insecurity, loss of health insurance and victimization by burglary. See Jeff Dominitz and Charles F. Manski, Perceptions of Economic Insecurity: Evidence from the Survey of Economic Expectations, Public Opinion Quarterly, 61 Spring 1997, 261-87
    • This assumption of unidimensionality is highly questionable, not least because the larger phenomenon of economic (as opposed to job) insecurity is already commonly taken to be multidimensional. For one study, it comprises, in addition to job insecurity, loss of health insurance and victimization by burglary. See Jeff Dominitz and Charles F. Manski, "Perceptions of Economic Insecurity: Evidence from the Survey of Economic Expectations," Public Opinion Quarterly, 61 (Spring 1997), 261-87.
  • 13
    • 24344510959 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Economic Insecurity
    • For another, its constituent dimensions are illness, unemployment, widowhood, and old age. See, Sydney: University of New South Wales
    • For another, its constituent dimensions are illness, unemployment, widowhood, and old age. See Lars Osberg, "Economic Insecurity," Discussion Paper No. 88, Social Policy Research Center (Sydney: University of New South Wales, 1998).
    • (1998) Discussion Paper No. 88, Social Policy Research Center
    • Osberg, L.1
  • 14
    • 0035618724 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A similar argument for diversity is made in a sophisticated aggregate-level analysis of the relationship between globalization and welfare compensation. See Brian Burgoon, Globalization and Welfare Compensation: Disentangling the Ties That Bind, International Organization, 55 Summer 2001, 509-52
    • A similar argument for diversity is made in a sophisticated aggregate-level analysis of the relationship between globalization and welfare compensation. See Brian Burgoon, "Globalization and Welfare Compensation: Disentangling the Ties That Bind," International Organization, 55 (Summer 2001), 509-52.
  • 15
    • 34248642639 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The United States analysis is based on a survey of 1,265 adults conducted between December 3 and 6, 1996, using random digit dialing. The data are weighted to take account of household size and number of telephone lines into the residence and to adjust for variations in the sample relating to geographic region, race, gender, age, and education. The survey is available from the Roper Center at the University of Connecticut, archive number USNYT95-012. The Australian data are taken from the 1998 Australian Election Study, which is available from the Social Science Data Archive at the Australian National University. Its study number is 1001.
    • The United States analysis is based on a survey of 1,265 adults conducted between December 3 and 6, 1996, using random digit dialing. The data are weighted to take account of household size and number of telephone lines into the residence and to adjust for variations in the sample relating to geographic region, race, gender, age, and education. The survey is available from the Roper Center at the University of Connecticut, archive number USNYT95-012. The Australian data are taken from the 1998 Australian Election Study, which is available from the Social Science Data Archive at the Australian National University. Its study number is 1001.
  • 17
    • 34248676084 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Osberg, p. 15
    • Osberg, p. 15.
  • 19
    • 34248680554 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • These percentage figures are calculated over the 1970-2003 period and can be found on the website of the U.S. Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics, at
    • These percentage figures are calculated over the 1970-2003 period and can be found on the website of the U.S. Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics, at http://data.bls.gov/PDQ//servlet/SurveyOutputServlet.
  • 20
    • 34248639112 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Fear of job loss is measured in both the U.S. and Australia by the question: How worried are you that in the next twelve months you or someone else in your household might be out of work and looking for a job for any reason - very worried, somewhat worried, or not worried at all?
    • Fear of job loss is measured in both the U.S. and Australia by the question: "How worried are you that in the next twelve months you or someone else in your household might be out of work and looking for a job for any reason - very worried, somewhat worried, or not worried at all?"
  • 21
    • 0035543615 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The question used to tap this form of job insecurity in Australia and the U.S. is: In your community these days, how easy is it for someone who is trying to find a job to get a good job at good wages - very easy, somewhat easy, somewhat hard, or very hard? A similar question that refers instead to the ease of finding an acceptable job is used in Torben Iversen and David Soskice, An Asset Theory of Social Policy Preferences, American Political Science Review, 95 (December 2001), 882.
    • The question used to tap this form of job insecurity in Australia and the U.S. is: "In your community these days, how easy is it for someone who is trying to find a job to get a good job at good wages - very easy, somewhat easy, somewhat hard, or very hard?" A similar question that refers instead to the ease of finding "an acceptable job" is used in Torben Iversen and David Soskice, "An Asset Theory of Social Policy Preferences," American Political Science Review, 95 (December 2001), 882.
  • 22
    • 34248663866 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Nov. 4
    • USA Today, Nov. 4, 1996, p. 23A.
    • (1996) USA Today
  • 23
    • 34248633448 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Difference-of-means tests show the insecurity measures to be different from each other at very high levels of statistical significance, 001 or better, This conclusion also holds when their medians are compared to allow for the possibility that the assumption of normal and equal-variance population distributions inherent in the t-test is violated. Details are available from the author upon request
    • Difference-of-means tests show the insecurity measures to be different from each other at very high levels of statistical significance (.001 or better). This conclusion also holds when their medians are compared to allow for the possibility that the assumption of normal and equal-variance population distributions inherent in the t-test is violated. Details are available from the author upon request.
  • 24
    • 34248646324 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The actual text of the question is: My next questions are about what are often called 'job lay-offs, by that we don't mean temporary or seasonal lay-offs. We mean people losing their jobs due to employer downsizing, reductions-in-force, corporate re-structuring, permanent plant closings, jobs moving overseas, or jobs just permanently disappearing. In the past 15 years, since 1980-was there any time YOU experienced THAT type of job lay-off, Emphasis in the original, Respondents who answered yes were than asked: How many different jobs have you been laid off from? A separate question asked respondents: In the past 15 years-since 1980-was there anyone else in your household who has ever experienced that type of job lay-off? The household layoffs measure combines the responses to these two questions
    • The actual text of the question is: "My next questions are about what are often called 'job lay-offs' - by that we don't mean temporary or seasonal lay-offs. We mean people losing their jobs due to employer downsizing, reductions-in-force, corporate re-structuring, permanent plant closings, jobs moving overseas, or jobs just permanently disappearing. In the past 15 years - since 1980-was there any time YOU experienced THAT type of job lay-off?" (Emphasis in the original.) Respondents who answered yes were than asked: "How many different jobs have you been laid off from?" A separate question asked respondents: "In the past 15 years-since 1980-was there anyone else in your household who has ever experienced that type of job lay-off?" The household layoffs measure combines the responses to these two questions.
  • 25
    • 34248652757 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Scheve and Slaughter, pp. 77-86.
    • Scheve and Slaughter, pp. 77-86.
  • 26
    • 0004075002 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Washington, D.C, Institute for International Economics
    • Dana Rodrik, Has Globalization Gone Too Far? (Washington, D.C.: Institute for International Economics, 1997), p. 11.
    • (1997) Has Globalization Gone Too Far , pp. 11
    • Rodrik, D.1
  • 27
    • 34248657631 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Specifically, those respondents falling into the two lowest educational achievement levels and the two lowest income levels ore scored 1 and everybody else is scored 0
    • Specifically, those respondents falling into the two lowest educational achievement levels and the two lowest income levels ore scored 1 and everybody else is scored 0.
  • 28
    • 34248642342 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Five levels of income are specified in the survey: Less than $15,000, $15,000-$30,000, $30,000-$50,000, $50,000-$75,000, and Over $75,000. Respondents are placed in one of four age groups: 18 to 29 years, 30 to 44 years, 45 to 64 years, and 65 years and older.
    • Five levels of income are specified in the survey: "Less than $15,000," "$15,000-$30,000," "$30,000-$50,000," "$50,000-$75,000, " and "Over $75,000." Respondents are placed in one of four age groups: 18 to 29 years, 30 to 44 years, 45 to 64 years, and 65 years and older.
  • 29
    • 34248653808 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The questions are: It is the responsibility of governments to take care of people who can't take care of themselves and Do you favor or oppose NATIONAL HEALTH CARE INSURANCE financed by tax money paying for most forms of health care? (Emphasis in the original.) In both cases, prowelfare responses are coded 1 and antiwelfare 0.
    • The questions are: "It is the responsibility of governments to take care of people who can't take care of themselves" and "Do you favor or oppose NATIONAL HEALTH CARE INSURANCE financed by tax money paying for most forms of health care?" (Emphasis in the original.) In both cases, prowelfare responses are coded 1 and antiwelfare 0.
  • 31
    • 34248665347 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A good recent overview is Duane Swank, Globalisation, Domestic Politics, and Welfare State Retrenchment in Capitalist Democracies, Social Policy and Society, 2 (April 2005), 183-95.
    • A good recent overview is Duane Swank, "Globalisation, Domestic Politics, and Welfare State Retrenchment in Capitalist Democracies," Social Policy and Society, 2 (April 2005), 183-95.
  • 33
    • 34248668514 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • I am grateful to the election study's principal investigators, David Gow, and Ian McAllister, for agreeing to my request to include these items in the Australian questionnaire
    • I am grateful to the election study's principal investigators, Clive Bean, David Gow, and Ian McAllister, for agreeing to my request to include these items in the Australian questionnaire.
    • Clive Bean
  • 34
    • 34248655212 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The exact wording is: If the government had a choice between reducing taxes or spending more on social services, which do you think it should do? The possible responses are: strongly favour reducing taxes, mildly favour reducing taxes, depends, mildly favour spending more on social services, and strongly favour spending more on social services.
    • The exact wording is: "If the government had a choice between reducing taxes or spending more on social services, which do you think it should do?" The possible responses are: "strongly favour reducing taxes," "mildly favour reducing taxes," "depends," "mildly favour spending more on social services," and "strongly favour spending more on social services."
  • 35
    • 34248683712 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • If the matching health care insurance model in Table 3 is reestimated without this variable, very similar results are generated, and the substantive conclusions remain unchanged.
    • If the matching health care insurance model in Table 3 is reestimated without this variable, very similar results are generated, and the substantive conclusions remain unchanged.
  • 36
    • 34248672918 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The educational qualification categories in the Australian survey are: no qualification, non-trade qualification, trade qualification, associate diploma, undergraduate diploma, Bachelor degree (including honours), and postgraduate degree or postgraduate diploma.
    • The educational qualification categories in the Australian survey are: "no qualification," "non-trade qualification," "trade qualification," "associate diploma," "undergraduate diploma," Bachelor degree (including honours), and "postgraduate degree or postgraduate diploma."
  • 37
    • 0141942201 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Job insecurity in Australia is discussed thoroughly in Anthony Mughan, Clive Bean, and Ian McAllister, Economic Globalization, Job Insecurity and the Populist Reaction, Electoral Studies, 22 (December 2003), 617-33.
    • Job insecurity in Australia is discussed thoroughly in Anthony Mughan, Clive Bean, and Ian McAllister, "Economic Globalization, Job Insecurity and the Populist Reaction," Electoral Studies, 22 (December 2003), 617-33.
  • 38
    • 34248665044 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • See, for example, Scheve and Slaughter
    • See, for example, Scheve and Slaughter.
  • 39
    • 0000287750 scopus 로고
    • In Defense of the Use of Multiplicative Terms in Multiple Regression Equations
    • November
    • Robert J. Friedrich, "In Defense of the Use of Multiplicative Terms in Multiple Regression Equations," American Journal of Political Science, 26 (November 1982), 797-833.
    • (1982) American Journal of Political Science , vol.26 , pp. 797-833
    • Friedrich, R.J.1
  • 40
    • 34248682721 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Although matching data can not be generated for Australia, only 16.2 percent of Americans who felt secure in their jobs had themselves been laid off since 1980. Of those who were very worried about imminent job loss, 38.1 percent had been laid off in the same time period, When other layoffs in their household are included, the matching figures for these same two groups are 23.6 percent and 55.5 percent
    • Although matching data can not be generated for Australia, only 16.2 percent of Americans who felt secure in their jobs had themselves been laid off since 1980. Of those who were very worried about imminent job loss, 38.1 percent had been laid off in the same time period, When other layoffs in their household are included, the matching figures for these same two groups are 23.6 percent and 55.5 percent.
  • 41
    • 34248639640 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Individualism is not the only explanation of the U.S. nonfindings, of course. Competing with, or even complementing, it is a structural difference in the pension systems of the two countries. Social security payments to the aged in America are less tightly linked to the ups and downs in income during working lives, so that short-term interruptions in earned income may not have a strong effect on perceptions of economic insecurity. In Australia, by contrast, most people rely on an employment-based, defined contribution pension whose value is more directly tied to fluctuations in earned income. The greater risk and unpredictability associated with the Australian system may help to explain the stronger demand for institutionalized welfare provision there. I am indebted to my colleague, Sarah Brooks, for alerting me to this important difference between the countries
    • Individualism is not the only explanation of the U.S. nonfindings, of course. Competing with, or even complementing, it is a structural difference in the pension systems of the two countries. Social security payments to the aged in America are less tightly linked to the ups and downs in income during working lives, so that short-term interruptions in earned income may not have a strong effect on perceptions of economic insecurity. In Australia, by contrast, most people rely on an employment-based, defined contribution pension whose value is more directly tied to fluctuations in earned income. The greater risk and unpredictability associated with the Australian system may help to explain the stronger demand for institutionalized welfare provision there. I am indebted to my colleague, Sarah Brooks, for alerting me to this important difference between the countries.
  • 42
    • 34248648527 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Burgoon, p. 510
    • Burgoon, p. 510.


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