Rock fracture as a precursor to lava dome eruptions at Mount St Helens from June 1980 to October 1986

Bulletin of Volcanology

Volumn 69, Issue 6, 2007, Pages 681-693

  Smith, Rosanna ^a   Kilburn, C R J ^a   Sammonds, P R ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY COLLEGE LONDON   (United Kingdom)

Author keywords

Failure forecasting method; Lava dome; Mount St Helens; Precursor; Rock fracture; Seismicity; Volcano tectonic

Indexed keywords

DUCTILE DEFORMATION; EXTRUSION; FAILURE ANALYSIS; FORECASTING METHOD; FRACTURE; LAVA DOME; SEISMICITY; TECTONIC SETTING; VOLCANIC ERUPTION; VOLCANOLOGY;

ENGLAND; EURASIA; EUROPE; SAINT HELENS [ENGLAND]; UNITED KINGDOM; WESTERN EUROPE;

PLINIA;

EID: 34147105532     PISSN: 02588900     EISSN: 14320819     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1007/s00445-006-0102-5     Document Type: Article

References (52)

1. Anderson SW, Fink JH (1989) Hydrogen-isotope evidence for extrusion mechanisms of the Mount St Helens lava dome. Nature 341:521-523
2. Barmin A, Melnik O, Sparks RSJ (2002) Periodic behavior in lava dome eruptions. Earth Planet Sci Lett 199:173-184
3. Benoit J, McNutt SR (1996) The global volcanic earthquake swarm database 1979-1989. USGS open-file report no. 96-69
4. Blundy J, Cashman K (2001) Ascent-driven crystallisation of dacite magmas at Mount St Helens, 1980-1986. Contrib Mineral Petrol 140:631-650
5. Charles RJ (1958) Static fatigue of glass. J Appl Phys 29:1549-1560
6. Chastin S, Main IG (2003) Statistical analysis of daily seismic event rate as a precursor to volcanic eruptions. Geophys Res Lett 30:1671-1674
7. Collombet M, Grasso JR, Ferrazini V (2003) Seismicity rate before eruptions on Piton de la Fournaise volcano: Implications for eruption dynamics. Geophys Res Lett 30:2099-2103
8. Cornelius RR, Scott PA (1993) A materials failure relation of accelerating creep as empirical description of damage accumulation. Rock Mech Rock Eng 26:233-252
9. Cornelius RR, Voight B (1995) Graphical and PC-software analysis of volcano eruption precursors according to the Materials Failure Forecast Method (FFM). J Volcanol Geotherm Res 64:295-320
10. Cornelius RR, Voight B (1996) Real-time seismic amplitude measurement (RSAM) and seismic spectral amplitude measurement (SSAM) analyses with the Materials Failure Forecast Method (FFM), June 1991 explosive eruption at Mount Pinatubo. In: Punongbayan RS, Newhall CG (eds) Fire and mud. Eruptions and lahars of Mount Pinatubo, Philippines. University of Washington Press, Seattle, pp 249-267
11. Das S, Scholz CH (1981) Theory of time-dependent rupture in the earth. J Geophys Res 86:6039-6051
12. De la Cruz-Reyna S, Reyes-Davila GA (2001) A model to describe material-failure phenomena: Applications to short-term forecasting at Colima volcano, Mexico. Bull Volcanol 63:297-308
13. Denlinger RP (1990) A model for dome eruptions at Mount St Helens, Washington based on subcritical crack growth. In: Fink JH (ed) Lava flows and domes: Emplacement mechanisms and hazard implications. Springer, Berlin Heidelberg New York, pp 70-87
14. Dzurisin D, Denlinger RP, Rosenbaum JG (1990) Cooling rate and thermal structure determined from progressive magnetization of the dacite dome at Mount-St-Helens, Washington. J Geophys Res 95:2763-2780
15. Endo ET, Malone SD, Noson LL, Weaver CS (1981) Locations, magnitudes, and statistics of the March 20-May 18 earthquake sequence. In: Lipman PW, Mullineaux DR (eds) The 1980 eruptions of Mt. St. Helens, Washington. Geol Surv Proff Pap 1250, pp 93-107
16. Fink JH, Malin MC, Anderson SW (1990) Intrusive and extrusive growth of the Mount St Helens lava dome. Nature 348:435-437
17. Geschwind CH, Rutherford MJ (1995) Crystallization of microlites during magma ascent: The fluid mechanics of 1980-1986 eruptions at Mount St Helens. Bull Volcanol 57:356-370
18. Hale AJ, Wadge G (2003) Numerical modelling of the growth dynamics of a simple silicic lava dome. Geophys Res Lett 30:aRt-2003
19. Iverson RM (1990) Lava domes modeled as brittle shells that enclose pressurised magma, with application to Mount St Helens. In: Fink JH (ed) Lava flows and domes: Emplacement mechanisms and hazard implications. Springer, Berlin Heidelberg New York, pp 47-69
20. Kilburn CRJ (2003) Multiscale fracturing as a key to forecasting volcanic eruptions. J Volcanol Geotherm Res 125:271-289
21. Kilburn CRJ, Voight B (1998) Slow rock fracture as eruption precursor at Soufriere Hills volcano, Montserrat. Geophys Res Lett 25:3665-3668
22. Main IG (1987) A characteristic earthquake model of the seismicity preceding the eruption of Mount St. Helens on 18 May 1980. Phys Earth Planet Inter 49:283-292
23. Main IG (1999) Applicability of time-to-failure analysis to accelerated strain before earthquakes and volcanic eruptions. Geophys J Int 139:F1-F6
24. Main IG, Meredith PG, Jones C (1989) A reinterpretation of the precursory seismic B-value anomaly from fracture-mechanics. Geophys J (Oxf) 96:131-138
25. Main IG, Meredith PG, Sammonds PR (1992) Temporal variations in seismic event rate and b-values from stress corrosion constitutive laws. Tectonophysics 211:233-246
26. Malone SD (1990) Mount St Helens, the 1980 re-awakening and continuing seismic activity. Geosci Can 17:146-150
27. Malone SD, Boyko C, Weaver CS (1983) Seismic precursors to the Mount St. Helens eruptions in 1981 and 1982. Science 221:1376-1378
28. McNutt SR (2005) Volcanic seismology. Annu Rev Earth Planet Sci 32:461-491
29. McGuire W, Kilburn CRJ (1997) Forecasting volcanic events: Some contemporary issues. Geol Rundsch 86:439-445
30. Melnik OE (2001) An unsteady model for volcanic-eruption dynamics involving crystallization and through-magma gas filtration. Doklady Phys 46:271-275
31. Melnik OE, Sparks RSJ (1999) Nonlinear dynamics of lava dome extrusion. Nature 402:37-41
32. Mogi K (1963) Some discussions on aftershocks, foreshocks, and earthquake swarms - the fracture of a semi-infinite body caused by an inner stress origin and its relation to the earthquake phenomena. Bull Earthq Res Inst 41:615-658
33. Neuberg J, Luckett R, Baptie B, Olsen K (2000) Models of tremor and low-frequency earthquake swarms on Montserrat. J Volcanol Geotherm Res 101:83-104
34. Neuberg J, Tuffen H, Collier L, Green D, Powell T, Dingwell D (2006) The trigger mechanism of low-frequency earthquakes on Montserrat. J Volcanol Geotherm Res 153:37-50
35. Neri G, Malone SD (1989) An analysis of the earthquake time series at Mount St Helens, Washington, in the framework of recent volcanic activity. J Volcanol Geotherm Res 38:257-267
36. PNSN (2005) Pacific North Seismic Network seismic hypocenter catalogue. ftp://ftp.geophys.washington.edu/pub/seis↗t/
37. Power JA, Wyss M, Latchman JL (1998) Spatial variations in the frequency-magnitude distribution of earthquakes at Soufriere Hills Volcano, Montserrat, West Indies. Geophys Res Lett 25:3653-3656
38. Reyes-Davila GA, De la Cruz-Reyna S (2002) Experience in the short-term eruption forecasting at Volcan de Colima, Mexico, and public response to forecasts. J Volcanol Geotherm Res 117:121-127
39. Sammonds PR, Ohnaka M (1998) Evolution of microseismicity during frictional sliding. Geophys Res Lett 25:699-702
40. Sammonds PR, Meredith PG, Main IG (1992) Role of pore fluids in the generation of seismic precursors to shear fracture. Nature 359:228-230
41. Smithsonian Institute (2004) Volcanic Activity Reports: St. Helens. http://www.volcano.si.edu/gvp/volcanoes/region12/washing/sthelens/var.htm
42. Swanson DA, Holcomb RT (1990) Regularities in Growth of the Mount St Helens Dacite Dome, 1980-1986. In: Fink JH (ed) Lava flows and domes: emplacement mechanisms and hazard implications. Springer, Berlin Heidelberg New York pp 3-24
43. Swanson PL, Casadevall D, Dzurisin D, Malone SD, Newhall CG, Weaver CS (1983) Predicting Eruptions at Mount St Helens, June 1980 through December 1982. Science 221:1369-1376
44. Swanson DA, Casadevall D, Dzurisin D, Malone SD, Newhall CG, Weaver CS (1985) Forecasts and predictions of eruptive activity at Mount St. Helens, USA: 1975-1984. J Geodyn 3:397-423
45. Thomas ME, Petford N, Bromhead EN (2004) Volcanic rock-mass properties from Snowdonia and Tenerife: Implications for volcano edifice strength. J Geol Soc 161:939-946
46. Tokarev PI (1963) On a possibility of forecasting of Bezymianny volcano eruptions according to seismic data. Bull Volcanol 26:379-386
47. Tokarev PI (1971) Forecasting volcanic eruptions from seismic data. Bull Volcanol 35:243-250
48. Tokarev PI (1983) Experience in predicting volcanic eruptions in the USSR. In: Tazieff H, Sabroux J-C (eds) Forecasting volcanic events. Elsevier, pp 257-268
49. Tuffen H, Dingwell D (2005) Fault textures in volcanic conduits: evidence for seismic trigger mechanisms during silicic eruptions. Bull Volcanol 67:370-387
50. Voight B (1988) A method for prediction of volcanic eruptions. Nature 332:125-130
51. Voight B (1989) A relation to describe rate-dependent material failure. Science 243:200-203
52. Voight B, Cornelius RR (1991) Prospects for eruption prediction in near real-time. Nature 350:695-698