Forecasting volcanic events: Some contemporary issues

Geologische Rundschau

Volumn 86, Issue 2, 1997, Pages 439-445

  McGuire, W J ^a   Kilburn, C R J ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY COLLEGE LONDON   (United Kingdom)

Author keywords

Eruption forecasts; Subcritical rock failure; Volcanic hazards

Indexed keywords

ERUPTION FORECAST; MONITORING; VOLCANIC HAZARD;

EID: 0031420280     PISSN: 00167835     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1007/s005310050152     Document Type: Article

References (43)

1. Atkinson BK (1984) Subcritical crack growth in geological materials, J Geophys Res 89:4077-4114
2. Bak P, Tang C, Weisenfeld K (1988) Self-organized criticality. Phys Rev A38:364-374
3. Chester DK, Duncan AM, Guest JE, Kilburn CRJ (1985) Mount Etna. The anatomy of a volcano. Chapman and Hall, London
4. Cornelius RR, Voight BJ (1995) Graphical and PC-software analysis of volcano eruption precursors according to the Materials Failure Forecast Method (FFM). J Volcanol Geotherm Res 64: 295-320
5. Costin LS (1983) A microcrack model for the deformation and failure of brittle rock. J Geophys Res 88:9485-9492
6. Dvorak J, Okamura A (1985) Variations in tilt rate and harmonic tremor amplitude during the January-August 1985 east rift eruptions of Kilauea volcano, Hawaii. J Volcanol Geotherm Res 25:249-258
7. Francis PW, Rothery DA (1987) Using the Landsat Thematic Mapper to detect and monitor active volcanoes. Geology 15:614-617
8. Giberti G, Jaupart C, Sartoris G (1992) Steady-state operation of Stromboli volcano, Italy:constraints on the feeding system. Bull Volcanol 54:535-541
9. Grasso JR, Bachèlery P (1995) Hierarchical organization as a diagnostic approach to volcano mechanics: validation on Piton de la Fournaise. Geophys Res Lett 22:2897-2900
10. IAVCEI-IDNDR Task Group (1990) Reducing volcanic disasters in the 1990s. Bull Volcanol Soc Japan 35:80-95
11. Kranz RL (1980) The effects of confining pressure and stress difference on static fatigue of granite. J Geophys Res 85:1854-1866
12. Lankford J (1981) Temperature-strain rate dependence of compressive strength and damage mechanisms in aluminium oxide. J Materials Sci 16:1567-1578
13. Lawn BR, Wilshaw TR (1975) Fracture of brittle solids. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
14. Lenat J-F, Bachèlery P (1988) Dynamics of magma transfers at Piton de la Fournaise volcano (Reunion Island. Indian Ocean). In: Chi-Yu, Scarpa R (eds) Modelling volcanic processes. Vieweg, Braunschweig, pp 57-72
15. Lipman PW, Mullineaux DR (1981) The 1980 eruptions of Mount St. Helens, Washington, US Geol Surv Prof Pap 1250 U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington DC
16. Lockner D (1993) Room temperature creep in saturated granite. J Geophys Res 98:475-487
17. Lockner DA, Byerlee JD, Kuksenko V, Ponomarev A, Sidorin A (1991) Quasistatic fault growth and shear fracture energy in granite. Nature 350:39-42
18. Luongo G, Mazzarella A, Palumbo A (1996) On the self-organized critical state of Vesuvius volcano. J Volcanol Geotherm Res 70:67-73
19. Main IG, Meredith PG (1991) Stress corrosion constitutive laws as a possible mechanism of intermediate-term and short-term seismic event rates and b-values. Geophys J Int 107:363-372
20. Main IG, Sammonds PR, Meredith PG (1993) Application of a modified Griffith criterion to the evolution of fractal damage during compressional rock failure. Geophys J Int 115:367-380
21. Main IG, Henderson JR, Meredith PG, Sammonds PR (1994) Non-conservative self-organised criticality due to fluid-rock interactions in the brittle field. Pageoph 142:529-543
22. McGuire WJ (1996) Dome collapse and explosive eruption at Soufriere Hills Volcano, Montserrat, September 17-18, 1996: an overview and chronology of events. In: Wadge G (ed) The Soufriere Hills eruption, Montserrat: extended abstracts volume. Geological Society of London, London
23. McGuire WJ, Pullen AD (1989). Location and orientation of eruptive fissures and feeder-dymes at Mount Etna; influence of gravitational and regional tectonic stress regimes. J Volcanol Geotherm Res 38:325-344
24. McGuire WJ, Pullen AD, Saunders SJ (1990) Recent dyke-induced large-scale block movement at Mount Etna and potential slope failure. Nature 343:357-359
25. McGuire WJ, Kilburn CRJ, Murray JB (eds) (1995) Monitoring active volcanoes: strategies, procedures, and techniques, UCL Press, London
26. Murray JB, Pullen AD (1984) Three-dimensional model of the feeder conduit of the 1983 eruption of Mount Etna volcano from ground deformation measurements. Bull Volcanol 47:1145-63
27. Murray JB, Voight B (1996) Slope stability and eruption prediction on the eastern flank of Mount Etna. In: McGuire WJ, Jones AP, Neubera J (eds) Volcano instability on the earth and other planets. Geol Soc Lond Spec Publ 111:111-114
28. Nunnari G, Puglisi G (1995) GPS - monitoring volcanic deformation from space. In: McGuire WJ, Kilburn CRJ, Murray JB (eds) Monitoring active volcanoes: strategies, procedures, and techniques. UCL Press, London, pp 151-183
29. Okamura TA, Dvorak JJ, Konayagi RY, Tamgawa WR (1988) Surface deformation during dike propagation. In: Wolfe EW (ed) Pu'u 'O'o eruption of Kilauea Volcano. Hawaii: episodes 1 through 20, January 3 1983 through June 8 1984. US Geol Surv Prof Pap 1463. U. S. Government Printing Office, Washington DC, pp 165-81
30. Peterson DW (1986) Volcanoes: tectonic setting and impact on society. In: Studies in geophysics: active tectonics. Panel on active tectonics, pp 231-246. National Academy Press, Washington DC
31. Rymer H, Murray JB, Brown GC, Ferrucci F, McGuire WJ (1993) Mechanisms of magma eruption and emplacement at Mount Etna between 1989 and 1992. Nature 361:439-41
32. Scarpa R, Tilling RI (eds) (1996) Monitoring and mitigation of volcano hazards. Springer, Berlin Heidelberg New York
33. Scholz CH (1990) The mechanics of earthquakes and faulting. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
34. Shaw HR (1987) Uniqueness of volcanic systems. US Geol Surv Prof Pap 1350:1357-1394
35. Simpkin T, Siebert L (1994) Volcanoes of the world. Smithsonian Institution, Washington DC
36. Sornette A, Dubois J, Cheminée JL, Sornette D (1991) Are sequences of volcanic eruptions deterministically chaotic? J Geophys Res 96:11931-11945
37. Swanson DA, Casadevall D, Dzurisin D, Malone SD, Newhall CG, Weaver CS (1985) Forecasts and predictions of eruptive activity at Mount St. Helens, USA: 1975-1984. J Geodyn 3: 397-423
38. Swanson PL (1984) Subcritical crack growth and other time- and environment-dependent behavior in crustal rocks. J Geophys Res 89:4137-4152
39. Tilling RI (1995) The role of monitoring in forecasting volcanic events. In: McGuire WJ, Kilburn CRJ, Murray JB (eds) Monitoring active volcanoes: strategies, procedures, and techniques. UCL Press, London, pp 369-402
40. Toutain JP, Bachèlery P, Blum PA, Delorme H, Kowalski P (1995) Real-time ground deformation monitoring. In: McGuire WJ, Kilburn CRJ, Murray JB (eds) Monitoring active volcanoes: strategies, procedures, and techniques. UCL Press, London, pp 93-109
41. Voight B (1988) A method for prediction of volcanic eruptions. Nature 332:125-130
42. Voight B (1989) A relation to describe rate-dependent material failure. Science 243:200-203
43. Wadge G, Isaacs MC (1988) Mapping the volcanic hazards from Soufriere Hills Volcano, Montserrat, West Indies, using an image processor. J Geol Soc Lond 145:541-551