메뉴 건너뛰기




Volumn 38, Issue 1, 2007, Pages 157-181

The bounded rationality bias in managerial valuation of real options: Theory and evidence from IT projects

Author keywords

Bounded rationality; Decision errors; Empirical study; Judgment heuristics; Managerial biases; Project assessment; Project management; Real options; Satisficing; Selective search; Software development; Technology development decisions

Indexed keywords


EID: 34047133233     PISSN: 00117315     EISSN: 15405915     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-5915.2007.00152.x     Document Type: Article
Times cited : (92)

References (62)
  • 2
    • 0036754796 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Managing information technology risk: A real options perspective
    • Benaroch, M. (2002). Managing information technology risk: A real options perspective. Journal of Management Information Systems, 19(2), 43-84.
    • (2002) Journal of Management Information Systems , vol.19 , Issue.2 , pp. 43-84
    • Benaroch, M.1
  • 3
    • 0033437913 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A case for using real options pricing analysis to evaluate information technology project investments
    • Benaroch, M., & Kauffman, R. J. (1999). A case for using real options pricing analysis to evaluate information technology project investments. Information Systems Research, 10(1), 70-86.
    • (1999) Information Systems Research , vol.10 , Issue.1 , pp. 70-86
    • Benaroch, M.1    Kauffman, R.J.2
  • 4
    • 27744486356 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Managerial assessments of e-business investment opportunities: A field study
    • Bharadwaj, A., & Tiwana, A. (2005). Managerial assessments of e-business investment opportunities: A field study. IEEE Transactions on Engineering Management, 52, 449-460.
    • (2005) IEEE Transactions on Engineering Management , vol.52 , pp. 449-460
    • Bharadwaj, A.1    Tiwana, A.2
  • 5
    • 0035623733 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Real options analysis and strategic decision making
    • Bowman, E., & Moskowitz, G. (2001). Real options analysis and strategic decision making. Organization Science, 12, 772-777.
    • (2001) Organization Science , vol.12 , pp. 772-777
    • Bowman, E.1    Moskowitz, G.2
  • 7
    • 0001515156 scopus 로고
    • Hindsight bias and strategic choice: Some problems in learning from experience
    • Bukszar, E., & Connolly, T. (1988). Hindsight bias and strategic choice: Some problems in learning from experience. Academy of Management Journal, 31, 628-641.
    • (1988) Academy of Management Journal , vol.31 , pp. 628-641
    • Bukszar, E.1    Connolly, T.2
  • 8
    • 85047681068 scopus 로고
    • Heuristic versus systematic processing and the use of source versus message cues in persuasion
    • Chaiken, S. (1980). Heuristic versus systematic processing and the use of source versus message cues in persuasion. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 39, 752-766.
    • (1980) Journal of Personality and Social Psychology , vol.39 , pp. 752-766
    • Chaiken, S.1
  • 9
    • 1642306408 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A real-world way to manage real options
    • Copeland, T., & Tufano, P. (2004). A real-world way to manage real options. Harvard Business Review, 52(3), 90-99.
    • (2004) Harvard Business Review , vol.52 , Issue.3 , pp. 90-99
    • Copeland, T.1    Tufano, P.2
  • 10
    • 33845945922 scopus 로고
    • Coefficient alpha and the internal structure of tests
    • Cronbach, L. J. (1951). Coefficient alpha and the internal structure of tests. Psychometrika, 16, 297-334.
    • (1951) Psychometrika , vol.16 , pp. 297-334
    • Cronbach, L.J.1
  • 12
    • 0024707541 scopus 로고
    • Humble decision making
    • Etzioni, A. (1989). Humble decision making. Harvard Business Review, 70(4), 122-126.
    • (1989) Harvard Business Review , vol.70 , Issue.4 , pp. 122-126
    • Etzioni, A.1
  • 13
    • 4043130906 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Real options and IT platform adoption: Implications for theory and practice
    • Fichman, R. (2004). Real options and IT platform adoption: Implications for theory and practice. Information Systems Research, 15(2), 132-154.
    • (2004) Information Systems Research , vol.15 , Issue.2 , pp. 132-154
    • Fichman, R.1
  • 14
    • 14944376832 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Beyond valuation: Real options thinking in IT project management
    • Fichman, R., Keil, M., & Tiwana, A. (2005). Beyond valuation: Real options thinking in IT project management. California Management Review, 47(2), 74-96.
    • (2005) California Management Review , vol.47 , Issue.2 , pp. 74-96
    • Fichman, R.1    Keil, M.2    Tiwana, A.3
  • 15
    • 49249145468 scopus 로고
    • The valuation of compound options
    • Geske, R. (1979). The valuation of compound options. Journal of Financial Economics, 7(1), 63-81.
    • (1979) Journal of Financial Economics , vol.7 , Issue.1 , pp. 63-81
    • Geske, R.1
  • 17
    • 33645827800 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Does past success lead analysts to become over-confident?
    • Hilary, G., & Menzly, L. (2006). Does past success lead analysts to become over-confident? Management Science, 52, 489-500.
    • (2006) Management Science , vol.52 , pp. 489-500
    • Hilary, G.1    Menzly, L.2
  • 18
    • 0000490295 scopus 로고
    • Investment under uncertainty: Keeping one's options open
    • Hubbard, G. R. (1994). Investment under uncertainty: Keeping one's options open. Journal of Economic Literature, 32, 1816-1831.
    • (1994) Journal of Economic Literature , vol.32 , pp. 1816-1831
    • Hubbard, G.R.1
  • 19
    • 0035239263 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Project management under risk: Using the real options approach to evaluate flexibility in R&D
    • Huchzermeier, A., & Loch, C. H. (2001). Project management under risk: Using the real options approach to evaluate flexibility in R&D. Management Science, 47(1), 85-101.
    • (2001) Management Science , vol.47 , Issue.1 , pp. 85-101
    • Huchzermeier, A.1    Loch, C.H.2
  • 20
    • 58049220690 scopus 로고
    • Estimating within-group interrater reliability with and without response bias
    • James, L., Demaree, R., & Wolf, G. (1984). Estimating within-group interrater reliability with and without response bias. Journal of Applied Psychology, 69, 85-98.
    • (1984) Journal of Applied Psychology , vol.69 , pp. 85-98
    • James, L.1    Demaree, R.2    Wolf, G.3
  • 21
    • 58149205851 scopus 로고
    • Rwg: An assessment of within-group interrater agreement
    • James, L., Demaree, R., & Wolf, G. (1993). Rwg: An assessment of within-group interrater agreement. Journal of Applied Psychology, 78, 306-309.
    • (1993) Journal of Applied Psychology , vol.78 , pp. 306-309
    • James, L.1    Demaree, R.2    Wolf, G.3
  • 22
    • 2942700268 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Maps of bounded rationality: Psychology for behavioral economics
    • Kahneman, D. (2003). Maps of bounded rationality: Psychology for behavioral economics. American Economic Review, 93, 1449-1475.
    • (2003) American Economic Review , vol.93 , pp. 1449-1475
    • Kahneman, D.1
  • 23
    • 0020056875 scopus 로고
    • The psychology of preferences
    • Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A. (1982). The psychology of preferences. Scientific American, 246(1), 160-173.
    • (1982) Scientific American , vol.246 , Issue.1 , pp. 160-173
    • Kahneman, D.1    Tversky, A.2
  • 25
    • 53349163773 scopus 로고
    • Pulling the plug: Software project management and the problem of project escalation
    • Keil, M. (1995). Pulling the plug: Software project management and the problem of project escalation. MIS Quarterly, 19, 421-447.
    • (1995) MIS Quarterly , vol.19 , pp. 421-447
    • Keil, M.1
  • 26
    • 0040918921 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A cross-cultural study on escalation of commitment behavior in software projects
    • Keil, M., Tan, B. C. Y., Wei, K. K., Saarinen, T., Tuunainen, V., & Wassenaar, A. (2000). A cross-cultural study on escalation of commitment behavior in software projects. MIS Quarterly, 24, 299-325.
    • (2000) MIS Quarterly , vol.24 , pp. 299-325
    • Keil, M.1    Tan, B.C.Y.2    Wei, K.K.3    Saarinen, T.4    Tuunainen, V.5    Wassenaar, A.6
  • 27
    • 0029403762 scopus 로고
    • The effects of sunk cost and project completion on information technology project escalation
    • Keil, M., Truex, D. P., & Mixon, R. (1995). The effects of sunk cost and project completion on information technology project escalation. IEEE Transactions on Engineering Management, 42, 372-381.
    • (1995) IEEE Transactions on Engineering Management , vol.42 , pp. 372-381
    • Keil, M.1    Truex, D.P.2    Mixon, R.3
  • 28
    • 0030495938 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Technological platforms and diversification
    • Kim, D. J., & Kogut, B. (1996). Technological platforms and diversification. Organization Science, 7, 283-301.
    • (1996) Organization Science , vol.7 , pp. 283-301
    • Kim, D.J.1    Kogut, B.2
  • 29
    • 0036568177 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Strategic actions in information technology investment based on real options theory
    • Kim, Y., & & Sanders, L. (2002). Strategic actions in information technology investment based on real options theory. Decision Support Systems, 33(1), 1-11.
    • (2002) Decision Support Systems , vol.33 , Issue.1 , pp. 1-11
    • Kim, Y.1    Sanders, L.2
  • 30
    • 84968137209 scopus 로고
    • Options thinking and platform investments: Investing in opportunities
    • Kogut, B., & Kulatilaka, N. (1994). Options thinking and platform investments: Investing in opportunities. California Management Review, 36(4), 52-71.
    • (1994) California Management Review , vol.36 , Issue.4 , pp. 52-71
    • Kogut, B.1    Kulatilaka, N.2
  • 32
    • 84965924423 scopus 로고
    • Residual centering, exploratory and confirmatory moderator analysis, and decomposition of effects in path models containing interactions
    • Lance, C. (1988). Residual centering, exploratory and confirmatory moderator analysis, and decomposition of effects in path models containing interactions. Applied Psychological Measurement, 12(2), 163-175.
    • (1988) Applied Psychological Measurement , vol.12 , Issue.2 , pp. 163-175
    • Lance, C.1
  • 33
    • 0035609496 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Evaluating growth options as sources of value for pharmaceutical research projects
    • Loch, C. H., & Bode-Greuel, K. (2001). Evaluating growth options as sources of value for pharmaceutical research projects. R&D Management, 31, 231-248.
    • (2001) R&D Management , vol.31 , pp. 231-248
    • Loch, C.H.1    Bode-Greuel, K.2
  • 34
    • 38249037059 scopus 로고
    • Time to build, option value, and investment value
    • Majd, S., & Pindyck, R. (1987). Time to build, option value, and investment value. Journal of Financial Economics, 18(2), 7-27.
    • (1987) Journal of Financial Economics , vol.18 , Issue.2 , pp. 7-27
    • Majd, S.1    Pindyck, R.2
  • 35
    • 0023456474 scopus 로고
    • Managerial perspectives on risk and risk taking
    • March, J. G., & Shapira, Z. (1987). Managerial perspectives on risk and risk taking. Management Science, 33, 1404-1418.
    • (1987) Management Science , vol.33 , pp. 1404-1418
    • March, J.G.1    Shapira, Z.2
  • 36
    • 0031484914 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A real options logic for initiating technology positioning investments
    • McGrath, R. (1997). A real options logic for initiating technology positioning investments. Academy of Management Review, 22, 974-996.
    • (1997) Academy of Management Review , vol.22 , pp. 974-996
    • McGrath, R.1
  • 37
    • 0033249242 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Failing forward: Real options reasoning and entrepreneurial failure
    • McGrath, R. (1999). Failing forward: Real options reasoning and entrepreneurial failure. Academy of Management Review, 24(1), 13-30.
    • (1999) Academy of Management Review , vol.24 , Issue.1 , pp. 13-30
    • McGrath, R.1
  • 38
    • 0036016133 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Banking on commitment: Intended and unintended consequences of an organization's attempt to attenuate escalation of commitment
    • McNamara, G., Moon, H., & Bromiley, P. (2002). Banking on commitment: Intended and unintended consequences of an organization's attempt to attenuate escalation of commitment. Academy of Management Journal, 45, 443-452.
    • (2002) Academy of Management Journal , vol.45 , pp. 443-452
    • McNamara, G.1    Moon, H.2    Bromiley, P.3
  • 39
    • 1842539499 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Variable organizational risk preferences: Tests of the March-Shapira model
    • Miller, K., & Chen, W. (2004). Variable organizational risk preferences: Tests of the March-Shapira model. Academy of Management Journal, 47(1), 105-115.
    • (2004) Academy of Management Journal , vol.47 , Issue.1 , pp. 105-115
    • Miller, K.1    Chen, W.2
  • 41
    • 21344462880 scopus 로고
    • The effect of coordination and uncertainty on software project performance: Residual performance risk as an intervening variable
    • Nidumolu, S. (1995). The effect of coordination and uncertainty on software project performance: Residual performance risk as an intervening variable. Information Systems Research, 6(3), 191-219.
    • (1995) Information Systems Research , vol.6 , Issue.3 , pp. 191-219
    • Nidumolu, S.1
  • 43
    • 0032324684 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Multi-stage real options: The cases of information technology infrastructure and international bank expansion
    • Panayi, S., & Trigeorgis, L. (1998). Multi-stage real options: The cases of information technology infrastructure and international bank expansion. Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 38, 675-692.
    • (1998) Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance , vol.38 , pp. 675-692
    • Panayi, S.1    Trigeorgis, L.2
  • 44
    • 0013417759 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Real options valuation: The new frontier in R&D project evaluation?
    • Perlitz, M., Peske, T., & Schrank, R. (1999). Real options valuation: The new frontier in R&D project evaluation? R&D Management, 29, 255-269.
    • (1999) R&D Management , vol.29 , pp. 255-269
    • Perlitz, M.1    Peske, T.2    Schrank, R.3
  • 45
    • 0000888844 scopus 로고
    • Irreversible investment, capacity choice, and the value of the firm
    • Pindyck, R. (1988). Irreversible investment, capacity choice, and the value of the firm. American Economic Review, 78, 969-985.
    • (1988) American Economic Review , vol.78 , pp. 969-985
    • Pindyck, R.1
  • 46
    • 0141907688 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Common method biases in behavioral research: A critical review of the literature and recommended remedies
    • Podsakoff, P., MacKenzie, S., Lee, J., & Podsakoff, N. (2003). Common method biases in behavioral research: A critical review of the literature and recommended remedies. Journal of Applied Psychology, 88, 879-903.
    • (2003) Journal of Applied Psychology , vol.88 , pp. 879-903
    • Podsakoff, P.1    MacKenzie, S.2    Lee, J.3    Podsakoff, N.4
  • 47
    • 0032628182 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Venture capitalists' assessment of new venture survival
    • Shepherd, D. A. (1999). Venture capitalists' assessment of new venture survival. Management Science, 45, 621-630.
    • (1999) Management Science , vol.45 , pp. 621-630
    • Shepherd, D.A.1
  • 48
    • 84986799029 scopus 로고
    • Rational decision making in business organizations
    • Simon, H. (1979). Rational decision making in business organizations. American Economic Review, 69, 493-513.
    • (1979) American Economic Review , vol.69 , pp. 493-513
    • Simon, H.1
  • 49
    • 0038809096 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The relationship between overconfidence and the introduction of risky products: Evidence from a field study
    • Simon, M., & Houghton, S. (2003). The relationship between overconfidence and the introduction of risky products: Evidence from a field study. Academy of Management Journal, 46(2), 139-150.
    • (2003) Academy of Management Journal , vol.46 , Issue.2 , pp. 139-150
    • Simon, M.1    Houghton, S.2
  • 50
    • 33644898597 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The optimizer's curse: Skepticism and postdecision surprise in decision analysis
    • Smith, J., & Winkler, R. (2006). The optimizer's curse: Skepticism and postdecision surprise in decision analysis. Management Science, 52, 311-322.
    • (2006) Management Science , vol.52 , pp. 311-322
    • Smith, J.1    Winkler, R.2
  • 51
    • 55249123249 scopus 로고
    • Validating instruments in MIS research
    • Straub, D. W. (1989). Validating instruments in MIS research. MIS Quarterly, 13, 147-166.
    • (1989) MIS Quarterly , vol.13 , pp. 147-166
    • Straub, D.W.1
  • 54
    • 0000832328 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Options analysis of software platform decisions: A case study
    • Taudes, A., Feurstein, M., & Mild, A. (2000). Options analysis of software platform decisions: A case study. MIS Quarterly, 24, 227-243.
    • (2000) MIS Quarterly , vol.24 , pp. 227-243
    • Taudes, A.1    Feurstein, M.2    Mild, A.3
  • 55
    • 85138735018 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The antecedents of information systems development capability in firms: A knowledge integration perspective
    • Seattle, WA
    • Tiwana, A., Bharadwaj, A., & Sambamurthy, V. (2003). The antecedents of information systems development capability in firms: A knowledge integration perspective. Proceedings of International Conference on Information Systems, Seattle, WA, 246-258.
    • (2003) Proceedings of International Conference on Information Systems , pp. 246-258
    • Tiwana, A.1    Bharadwaj, A.2    Sambamurthy, V.3
  • 56
    • 11844278235 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The one minute risk assessment tool
    • Tiwana, A., & Keil, M. (2004). The one minute risk assessment tool. Communications of the ACM, 47(11), 73-77.
    • (2004) Communications of the ACM , vol.47 , Issue.11 , pp. 73-77
    • Tiwana, A.1    Keil, M.2
  • 57
    • 34248212341 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Does peripheral knowledge complement control? An empirical test in technology outsourcing alliances
    • forthcoming
    • Tiwana, A., & Keil, M. (forthcoming). Does peripheral knowledge complement control? An empirical test in technology outsourcing alliances. Strategic Management Journal.
    • Strategic Management Journal
    • Tiwana, A.1    Keil, M.2
  • 58
    • 33749490556 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • IS project continuation in escalation situations: A real options model
    • Tiwana, A., Keil, M., & Fichman, R. (2006). IS project continuation in escalation situations: A real options model. Decision Sciences, 37, 357-391.
    • (2006) Decision Sciences , vol.37 , pp. 357-391
    • Tiwana, A.1    Keil, M.2    Fichman, R.3
  • 59
    • 84903989527 scopus 로고
    • The nature of option interactions and the valuation of investments with multiple real options
    • Trigeorgis, L. (1993). The nature of option interactions and the valuation of investments with multiple real options. Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 28(1), 1-20.
    • (1993) Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis , vol.28 , Issue.1 , pp. 1-20
    • Trigeorgis, L.1
  • 60
    • 4344609709 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Allocating decision rights on the shop floor: A perspective from transaction cost economics and organization theory
    • Vazquez, X. (2004). Allocating decision rights on the shop floor: A perspective from transaction cost economics and organization theory. Organization Science, 15, 463-480.
    • (2004) Organization Science , vol.15 , pp. 463-480
    • Vazquez, X.1
  • 61
    • 0001527385 scopus 로고
    • Selectivity and selective perception: An investigation of managers' belief structures and information processing
    • Walsh, J. (1988). Selectivity and selective perception: An investigation of managers' belief structures and information processing. Academy of Management Journal, 31, 873-896.
    • (1988) Academy of Management Journal , vol.31 , pp. 873-896
    • Walsh, J.1


* 이 정보는 Elsevier사의 SCOPUS DB에서 KISTI가 분석하여 추출한 것입니다.