Fixed or variable needs? Public support and welfare state reform

Government and Opposition

Volumn 42, Issue 2, 2007, Pages 139-157

  Jensen, Carsten ^a  

^a NONE

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

EID: 33947251802     PISSN: 0017257X     EISSN: 14777053     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1111/j.1477-7053.2007.00210.x     Document Type: Article

References (64)

1. See, e.g. G. Esping-Andersen, 'After the Golden Age? Welfare State Dilemmas in the Global Economy', in G. Esping-Andersen (ed.), Welfare States in Transition, London, Sage, 1996, pp. 1-31;
2. P. Plerson, 'Post-industrial Pressures on the Mature Welfare States', in P. Pierson (ed.), The New Politics of the Welfare State, New York, Oxford University Press, 2001, pp. 80-104.
3. P. Pierson, Dismantling the Welfare State. Reagan, Thatcher, and the Politics of Retrenchment, Cambridge, Cambridge University Press, 1994;
4. P. Pierson, 'The New Politics of the Welfare State', World Politics, 48: 2 (1996), pp. 143-79;
5. Green-Pedersen and M. Haverland, 'The New Politics and Scholarship of the Welfare State: A Review Essay', Journal of European Social Policy, 12: 1 (2002), pp. 43-51;
6. A. Lindbom, The Politics of Welfare Reform', Journal of European Public Policy, 9: 2 (2002), pp. 311-21.
7. J. Mahoney, 'Path Dependence in Historical Sociology', Theory and Society, 29: 4 (2000), pp. 507-48:
8. P. Pierson, 'Increasing Returns, Path Dependence, and the Study of Polities', American Political Science Review, 94: 2 (2000), pp. 251-67.
9. The example is inspired by J. Myles and P. Pierson, The Comparative Political Economy of Pension Reform', in P. Pierson (ed.), The New Politics of the Welfare State, New York, Oxford University Press, 2001, pp. 305-33.
10. Other authors have made this point as well, although these accounts mostly lack a positive theoretical explanation like the one presented in this article of why and when reforms occur. See, e.g. R. Clayton and J. Pontussen, 'Welfare-State Retrenchment Revisited. Entitlement Cuts, Public Sector Restructuring, and Inegalitarian Trends in Advanced Capitalist Societies', World Politics, 51: 1 (1998), pp. 67-98;
11. K. van Kersbergen, 'The Declining Resistance of Welfare States to Change', in S. Kuhnle (ed.), Survival of the European Welfare State, London, Routledge, 2000, pp. 19-36.
12. Mahoney, 'Path Dependence in Historical Sociology'; Pierson, 'Increasing Returns, Path Dependence, and the Study of Polities'; K. Thelen, 'How Institutions Evolve. Insights from Comparative Historical Analysis', in J. Mahoney and D. Rueschemeyer (eds), Comparative Historical Analysis in the Social Sciences, Cambridge, Cambridge University Press, 2003, pp. 208-40.
13. Pierson, Dismantling the Welfare State?; Pierson, "The New Politics of the Welfare State'.
14. R. K. Weaver, 'The Politics of Blame Avoidance', Journal of Public Policy, 6: 4 (1986), pp. 371-98; see also references in n. 3 above.
15. B. I. Page and R. Y. Shapiro, The Rational Public. Fifty Years of Trends in Americans' Policy Preferences, Chicago, University of Chicago Press, 1992;
16. G. Duncan and S. Paugam, Social Precarity and Social Integration. Report for the European Commission Based on Eurobarometer 56.1, Luxembourg, European Commission, 2002;
17. Blekesaune and J. Quadagno, 'Public Attitudes to Welfare State Policies: A Comparative Analysis of 24 Nations', European Sociological Review, 19: 5 (2003), pp. 415-27;
18. Halman, W. Arts and W. van Oorschot, 'The Welfare State: Villian or Hero of the Piece', in W. Arts, J. Hagenaars and L. Halman (eds), The Cultural Diversity of European Unity: Findings, Explanations and Reflections From the European Values Study, Leiden, Brill, 2003, pp. 275-310;
19. Togeby, Man har et standpunkt. . . Om stabilitet og forandring i befolkningens holdninger, Aarhus, Aarhus Universitets Forlag, 2004;
20. A. Larsen, The Institutional Logic of Welfare Attitudes: How Welfare Reforms Influence Public Support, Hampshire, Ashgate, 2006.
21. C. Wlezien, 'The Public as Thermostat: Dynamics of Preferences for Spending', Atrterican Journal of Political Science, 39: 4 (1995), pp. 981-1000.
22. See also R. H. Durr, 'What Moves Policy Sentiment?', American Political Science Review, 87 (1993), pp. 158-70.
23. Studies concerning old-age pension systems within the 'new polities' framework include Myles and Pierson, 'The Comparative Political Economy of Pension Reform'; K. M. Anderson, 'Pension Politics in Three Small States: Denmark, Sweden and the Netherlands', Canadian Journal of Sociology, 29: 2 (2004), pp. 289-312;
24. Green-Pedersen and A. Lindbom, 'Politics Within Paths: The Trajectories of Danish and Swedish Earnings-related Pensions', Journal of European Social Policy, 16: 3 (2006), pp. 245-58.
25. On public support as feedback see P. Pierson, 'When Effect Becomes Cause. Policy Feedback and Political Change', World Politics, 45: 4 (1993), pp. 595-628;
26. Gusmano, M. Schlesinger and T. Thomas, 'Policy Feedback and Public Opinion: The Role of Employer Responsibility in Social Policy', Journal of Health Politics, Policy and Law, 27: 5 (2002), pp. 731-71. The relationship between different welfare-state policy areas and modes of public support also received some attention in the 1980s under the heading 'consumption cleavages', but has clearly had a limited impact on the 'new polities' literature.
27. See, e.g. P. Taylor-Gooby, 'Consumption Cleavages and Welfare Polities', Political Studies, 34: 4 (1986), pp. 592-606.
28. OECD, The OECD Jobs Study. Part I. Labour Market Trends and Underlying Forces of Change, Paris, OECD, 1994;
29. OECD, The OECD Jobs Study. Part II, The Adjustment Potential of the Labour Market, Paris, OECD, 1994;
30. K. Armington and M. Beyler (eds), The OECD and European Welfare States, Cheltenham and Northampton, Edward Elgar, 2004.
31. See for instance J. Clasen, J. Kvist and W. van Oorschot, 'On Condition of Work: Increasing Work Requirements in Unemployment Compensation Schemes', in J. Fritzell, B. Hvinden, M. Kautto, J. Kvist and H. Uusitalo (eds), Nordic Welfare States in the European Context, London, Routledge, 2001, pp. 198-231.
32. M. Paldam and P. Nannestad, 'What Do Voters Know About the Economy? A Study of Danish Data, 1990-1993', Electoral Studies, 19: 2-3 (2000), pp. 363-91.
33. OECD, OECD Employment Outlook 2005. Statistical Annex, Paris, OECD, 2005, p. 237.
34. Myles and Pierson, The Comparative Political Economy of Pension Reform'.
35. J. Mahoney, 'Strategies of Causal Inference in Small-N Analysis', Sociological Methods and Research 28: 4 (2000), pp. 387-424;
36. Rueschemeyer, 'Can One or a Few Cases Yield Theoretical Gains?', In J. Mahoney and D. Rueschemeyer (eds), Comparative Historical Analysis in Social Science, Cambridge, Cambridge University Press, 2003, pp. 305-36.
37. In the opinion of the author the theory of institutional veto points may provide a serious challenge, although this theory lacks the dynamics of the approach advocated in this article. See G. Bonoli, 'Political Institutions, Veto Points, and the Process of Welfare State Adaptation', in P. Pierson (ed.), The New Politics of the Welfare State, Oxford, Oxford University Press, 2001, pp. 238-64.
38. D. Béland, 'Does Labor Matter? Institutions, Labor Unions and Pension Reform in France and the United States', Journal of Public Policy, 21: 2 (2001), pp. 151-72;
39. J. S. Hacker, The Divided Welfare State. The Battle Over Public and Private Social Benefits in the United States, Cambridge, Cambridge University Press, 2002;
40. Karczmar, 'Reform of the US Pension System: Political Controversies Defeat Demographic Realities', in Current Issues. Demography Special, Deutsche Bank Research, 2005.
41. J. Myles and P. Pierson, 'Friedman's Revenge: The Reform of "Liberal" Welfare States in Canada and the United States', Politics & Society, 25: 4 (1997), pp. 443-72;
42. J. F. Handler, 'US Welfare Reform: The Big Experiment', in J. Zeitlin and D. M. Trubek (eds). Governing Work and Welfare in a New Economy. European and American Experiments, Oxford and New York, Oxford University Press, 2003, pp. 215-39;
43. R. Walker and M. Wiseman, 'Leaving it Be: The 2002 US Debate on Welfare Reform', Social Policy and Society, 2: 2 (2003), pp. 161-70;
44. Committee on Ways and Means, 2004 Green Book, Washington, DC, Committee on Ways and Means, 2004.
45. S. N. Soroka shows in a recent article how public attitude is affected much more by bad than good information on economic issues. It is hence likely that the political mood around the year 2000 changed much more dramatically towards opposition against any reforms than the relatively small increase in actual unemployment would seem to justify. See S. N. Soroka, 'Good News and Bad News: Asymmetric Responses to Economic Information', Journal of Politics, 68: 2 (2006), pp. 372-85.
46. J. D. Levy, 'France: Directing Adjustment?', in S. W. Scharpf and V. A. Schmidt (eds), Welfare and Work in the Open Economy, Vol. II, Oxford, Oxford University Press, 2000, pp. 308-50; Béland, 'Does Labor Matter?; Bonoli, 'Political Institutions, Veto Points, and the Process of Welfare State Adaptation';
47. B. Palier, 'Reshaping the Social Policy-Making Framework in France', in P. Taylor-Gooby (ed.), Welfare States under Pressure, London, Sage, 2001, pp. 52-74;
48. Béland and P. Marier, The Politics of Protest Avoidance: Policy Windows, Labor Mobilization, and Pension Reform in France, Hamilton, SEDAP Research Program, 2004;
49. S. E. Oka, 'Pension Reform in France', Japanese Journal of Social Security Policy, 3: 1 (2004), pp. 1-9.
50. Levy, 'France: Directing Adjustment?'; B. Cliff, 'The Jospin Way', Political Quarterly, 72: 2 (2001), pp. 170-9;
51. Palier, 'Reshaping the Social Policy-Making Framework in France'; D. Clegg and J. Clasen, 'Worlds Apart? Unemployment Policy and Politics in Britain and France', La Revue Française de Civilisation Britannique, 12: 2 (200.?), pp. 131-43;
52. J. Clasen and D. Clegg, 'Does the Third Way Work? The Left and Labour Market Policy Reform in Britain, France, and Germany', in J. Lewis and R. Surender (eds), Welfare State Change: Toward a Third Way?, Oxford, Oxford University Press, pp. 89-110;
53. Serré and B. Palier, 'France: Moving Reluctantly in the OECD's Direction', in K. Armington and M. Beyler (eds), The OECD and European Welfare States, Cheltenham and Northampton, Edward Elgar, 2004, pp. 101-12.
54. C. Green-Pedersen, 'Det danske pensionsystems endelige udformning. Kampen om pensionssystemet under Schlüter-regeringerne', Histarisk Tidskrift, 103: 2 (2003), pp. 359-82; Anderson, Tension Politics in Three Small States';
55. A. Larsen and J. G. Andersen, Magien på borgen. En analyse af beslutningsprocesser i større politiske reformer, Aarhus, Aarhus Universitetsforlag, 2004, pp. 52-129;
56. F. Aaen and H. Hansen, Pensionsopsparing - fra ØD til frit valg, Copenhagen, CASA, 2005;
57. Green-Pedersen, 'A Pension System According to the World Bank. Development of the Danish Pension System from 1980 to 2002', in K. M. Anderson, E. Immergut and I. Schulze, The Handbook of Pension Systems, Oxford, Oxford University Press, 2006.
58. J. G. Andersen, 'Danskernes opbakning til velfæerdsstaten - urokkelig, påvirkelig eller skrøbelig?', in J. H. Petersen and K. Petersen (eds), 13 udfordringer til den danske velfærdstat, Odense, Syddansk Universitetsforlag, 2004, especially p. 120.
59. M. Benner and T. B. Vad, 'Sweden and Denmark. Defending the Welfare State', in Scharpf and Schmidt, Welfare and Work in the Open Economy, pp. 399-466; Glasen, Kvist and van Oorschot, 'On Condition of Work'; Larsen and Andersen, Magten på borgen., pp. 199-241;
60. J. Torfing, Det stille sparskifte i velfærdsstaten. En diskursteoretisk beslutningsprocesanalyse, Aarhus, Aarhus Universitetsforlag, 2004.
61. Myles and Pierson, "The Comparative Political Economy of Pension Reform'; Anderson, 'Pension Politics in Three Small States'.
62. A. Lindbom, 'Dismantling the Social Democratic Welfare Model? Has the Swedish Welfare State Lost its Defining Characteristics?', Scatidinavian Political Studies, 24: 3 (2001), pp. 171-93.
63. F. Bönker and H. Wollmann, 'Stumbling Towards Reform: The German Welfare State in the 1990s', in Taylor-Gooby, Welfare States under Pressure, pp. 75-99; Myles and Pierson, 'The Comparative Political Economy of Pension Reform'.
64. P. Manow and E. Seils, 'Adjusting Badly: The German Welfare State, Structural Change, and the Open Economy', in Scharpf and Schmidt, Welfare and Work in the Open Economy, pp. 264-307; Bönker and Wollmann, 'Stumbling Towards Reform'; Clasen and Clegg, 'Does the Third Way Work?'.