Quantification of epistemic and aleatory uncertainties in level-1 probabilistic safety assessment studies

Reliability Engineering and System Safety

Volumn 92, Issue 7, 2007, Pages 947-956

  Durga Rao, K ^a   Kushwaha, H S ^a   Verma, A K ^b   Srividya, A ^b  

^a BHABHA ATOMIC RESEARCH CENTRE   (India)

^b INDIAN INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY BOMBAY   (India)

Author keywords

Aleatory uncertainty; Availability; Epistemic uncertainty; Monte Carlo simulation; PSA

Indexed keywords

MATHEMATICAL MODELS; MONTE CARLO METHODS; RISK ASSESSMENT; SAFETY FACTOR;

COMPLEX PROCESSES; PROBABILISTIC SAFETY ASSESSMENT (PSA); RELIABILITY ANALYSIS;

UNCERTAIN SYSTEMS;

EID: 33847395057     PISSN: 09518320     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2006.07.002     Document Type: Article

References (27)

1. Procedure for conducting probabilistic safety assessment of nuclear power plants (level 1). Safety series no. 50-P-4. Vienna: International Atomic Energy Agency; 1992.
2. Probabilistic risk assessment procedures guide for NASA managers and practitioners. Version 1.1. NASA report, August, 2002.
3. Ferson S., and Lev R.G. Different methods are needed to propagate ignorance and variability. Reliab Eng Syst Saf 54 (1996) 133-144
4. Apostolakis G. The distinction between aleatory and epistemic uncertainties is important: an example from the inclusion of aging effects into PSA. Proceedings of PSA '99, international topical meeting on probabilistic safety assessment, Washington, DC, 1999. p. 135-42.
5. Marquez A.C., Heguedas A.S., and Iung B. Monte Carlo-based assessment of system availability. Reliab Eng Syst Saf 88 (2005) 273-289
6. Zio E., Podofillinia L., and Zille V. A combination of Monte Carlo simulation and cellular automata for computing the availability of complex network systems. Reliab Eng Syst Saf 91 (2006) 181-190
7. Rushdi A.M., and Kamel F.K. Uncertainty propagation in fault tree analyses using an exact method of moments. Microelectron Reliab 28 (1988) 945-965
8. Granger M.M., and Henrion M. Uncertainty-a guide to dealing uncertainty in quantitative risk and policy analysis (1992), University Press, Cambridge
9. Jackson P.S., Hockenbury R.W., and Yeater M.L. Uncertainty analysis of system reliability and availability assessment. Nucl Eng Design 68 (1981) 5-29
10. Durga Rao K., Saraf R.K., and Kushwaha H.S. Uncertainty in reliability analysis of MCPS of TAPP 3 & 4. International conference on quality, reliability and information technology (2003), Narosa Publishers, New Delhi p. 337-48
11. Abrahamsson M. Uncertainty in quantitative risk analysis. Report 1024 (2002), Lund University
12. Tanaka H., Fan L.T., Lai F.S., and Toguchi K. Fault tree analysis by fuzzy probability. IEEE Trans Reliab 32 (1983) 453-457
13. Soman K.P., and Misra K.B. Fuzzy fault tree analysis using resolution identity. J Fuzzy Math 1 (1993) 193-212
14. Ferson S., and Hajagos J.G. Arithmetic with uncertain numbers: rigorous and (often) best possible answers. Reliab Eng Syst Saf 85 (2004) 135-152
15. Bae H.R., Grandhi R.V., and Canfield R.A. Uncertainty quantification of structural response using evidence theory. AIAA J 41 10 (2003) 2062-2068
16. Frantzich H. Uncertainty and risk analysis in fire safety engineering. Doctoral dissertation Department of Fire Safety Engineering, Lund University, Lund, 1998.
17. Hofer E., Kloos M., Hausmann B.K., Peschke J., and Woltereck M. An approximate epistemic uncertainty analysis approach in the presence of epistemic and aleatory uncertainties. Reliab Eng Syst Saf 77 (2002) 229-238
18. Stephen C.H. Aleatory and epistemic uncertainty in probability elicitation with an example from hazardous waste management. Reliab Eng Syst Saf 54 (1996) 217-223
19. Ferson S., Joslyn C.A., Helton J.C., Oberkampf W.L., and Sentz K. Summary from the epistemic uncertainty work shop: consensus amid diversity. Reliab Eng Syst Saf 85 (2004) 355-369
20. Bae H., Grandhi R.V., and Canfield R.A. Epistemic uncertainty quantification techniques including evidence theory for large scale structures. Comput Struct 82 (2004) 1101-1112
21. Daniel B., and Jianzhong Z. Representation and problem solving with distribution envelope determination (DEnv). Reliab Eng Syst Saf 85 1-3 (2004) 153-168
22. Vose D. Risk analysis-a quantitative guide (2000), Wiley, New York
23. Durga Rao K, Kushwaha HS, Verma AK, Srividya A. Studies on simulation based system reliability evaluation. International conference on reliability, safety and hazard' 05. Mumbai: Narosa Publishers, 2005. p. 30-5.
24. Saraf RK, Babar AK, Rao VVSS. Reliability analysis of electrical power supply system of Indian pressurized heavy water reactors. Internal report BARC/E/001, 1997.
25. IAEA TECDOC 593. Case study on the use of PSA methods: station blackout risk at Millstone unit 3. Vienna: International Atomic Energy Agency; 1991.
26. IAEA TECDOC 478. Component reliability data for use in probabilistic safety assessment. Vienna: International Atomic Energy Agency; 1988.
27. Winkler R.L. Uncertainty in probabilistic risk assessment. Reliab Eng Syst Saf 34 (1996) 127-132