Sexual recidivism: A review of static, dynamic and actuarial predictors

Journal of Sexual Aggression

Volumn 11, Issue 1, 2005, Pages 65-84

  Craig, Leam A ^a,b   Browne, Kevin D ^b,c   Stringer, Ian ^a,b   Beech, Anthony ^b  

^a The Willows Clinic   (United Kingdom)

^b UNIVERSITY OF BIRMINGHAM   (United Kingdom)

^c World Health Organisation   (United Kingdom)

Author keywords

Actuarial risk assessment; Sexual offenders; Static and dynamic risk factors

Indexed keywords

EID: 33847153759     PISSN: 13552600     EISSN: 17426545     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1080/13552600410001667733     Document Type: Article

References (100)

1. Barbaree, HE, and Marshall, WL. 1988. Deviant sexual arousal, offence history and demographic variables as predictors of reoffence among child molesters. Behavioral Sciences and the Law, 6:267–280.
2. Barbaree HE, Seto MC, Langton CM, (2001, November) Psychopathy, treatment behavior, and sex offender recidivism:An extended follow-up Paper presented at the 20th Annual Conference of the Association for the Treatment of Sexual Abusers, San Antonio Texas
3. Barbaree, HE, Seto, MC, Langton, CM, and Peacock, EJ. 2001. Evaluating the predictive accuracy of six risk assessment instruments for adult sex offenders. Criminal Justice and Behavior, 28:490–521.
4. Beck AT, Freeman A, Associates Cognitive Therapy of Personality Disorders, Guilford Press New York 1990
5. Beech A, Erikson M, Friendship C, Ditchfield J, 2001 A six-year follow-up of men going through representative probation based sex offender treatment programmes HMSO 114 1 4 Available electronically from:http://www.homeoffice.gov.uk/rds/pdfs/r144.pdf
6. Beech A, Fisher D, Beckett R, 1999 Step 3:An evaluation of the prison sex offenders treatment programme Home Office Occasional Report London HMSO Available electronically from, www.homeoffice.gov.uk/rds/pdfs/occ-step3.pdf
7. Beech, A, Friendship, C, Erikson, M, and Hanson, RK. 2002. The relationship between static and dynamic risk factors and reconviction in a sample of UK child abusers. Sexual Abuse:A Journal of Research and Treatment, 14:155–167.
8. Boer DP, Hart SD, Kropp PR, Webster CD, Manual for the Sexual Violence Risk–20:Professional Guidelines for Assessing Risk of Sexual Violence, The Mental Health Law, and policy Institute ans Simon Fraser University Vancourer BC 1997
9. Boer DP, Wilson RJ, Gauthier CM, Hart SD, Assessing risk of sexual violence:Guidelines for clinical practice In C. D. Webster & M. A. Jackson (Eds), Impulsivity:Theory, Assessment and Treatment, The Guilford Press NY (pp. 326–342) 1997
10. Bonta J, Hanson RK, 1995 Violent recidivism of men released from prison Paper presented at the 103rd annual convention of the American Psychological Association, New York
11. Bonta, J, Harman, WG, Hann, RG, and Cormier, RB. 1996. The prediction of recidivism among federally sentenced offenders:A re-validation of the SIR scale. Canadian Journal of Criminology, 38:61–79.
12. Bonta J, Law M, Hanson K, 1996 The prediction of criminal and violent recidivism among mentally disordered offenders:A meta-analysis Psychological Bulletin 123 123 142 Available electronically from Ottawa, ONT:Solicitor General Canada, http://www.sgc.gc.ca/publications/corrections/199805a_e.asp
13. Borum, R. 1996. Improving The clinical practice of violence risk assessment:technology, guidelines and training. American Psychologist, 51:945–956.
14. Broadhurst, RG, and Maller, RA. 1992. The recidivism of sex offenders in the Western Australian prison population. British Journal of Criminology, 32:54–77.
15. Browne, KD, Foreman, L, and Middleton, D. 1998. Predicting treatment dropout in sex offenders. Child Abuse Review, 7:402–419.
16. Craig LA, Beech AR, Browne KD, 2004 Evaluating the predictive accuracy of sex offender risk assessment measures on UK samples:A cross-validation of the risk matrix 2000 Scales Submitted for publication.
17. Craig, LA, Browne, KD, and Stringer, I. 2003a. Risk scales and factors predictive of sexual offence recidivism. Trauma, Violence, & Abuse, 4:45–68.
18. Craig, LA, Browne, KD, and Stringer, I. 2003b. Treatment and sexual offence recidivism. Trauma, Violence, & Abuse, 4:70–89.
19. Craig, LA, Browne, KD, and Stringer, I. 2004a. Comparing sex offender risk assessment measures on a UK sample. International Journal of Offender Therapy and Comparative Criminology, 48:7–27.
20. Craig, LA, Browne, KD, Stringer, I, and Beech, A. 2004. Limitations in actuarial risk assessment for sex offenders:A methodological note. British Journal of Forensic Practice, 6:16–32.
21. Craissati J, 2003, March Adjusting Standard Assessment and Treatment Models to Meet the Needs of Sex Offenders in the Community Paper presented at the 12th Annual Conference of the Division of Forensic Psychology, 26th–28th March, 2003 Churchill College Cambridge
22. Dempster, RJ, and Hart, SD. 2002. The relative utility of fixed and variables risk factors in discriminating sexual recidivists and non-recidivists. Sexual Abuse:A Journal of Research and Treatment, 14:121–138.
23. English K, 1999, June Adult Sex Offender Risk Assessment Screening Instrument:Progress Report 1.a Colorado Division of Criminal Justice Denver Colorado
24. Epperson DL, Kaul JD, Hesselton D, 1998, October Final Report on the Development of the Minnesota Sex Offender Screening Tool-Revised (MnSOST-R) Paper presented at the 17th Annual Conference of the Association for the Treatment of Sexual Abusers Vancouver Canada
25. Falshaw L, Bates A, Patel V, Corbett C, Friendship C, 2002, April Assessing Reconviction, Re-offending and Recidivism in a Sample of UK Sexual Offenders Paper presented at the Division of Forensic Psychology 11th Annual Conference University of Manchester UK
26. Fisher, D, Beech, A, and Browne, K. 2000. The effectiveness of relapse prevention training in a group of incarcerated child molesters. Psychology, Crime & Law, 6:1–5.
27. Friendship, C, and Thornton, D. 2001. Sexual reconviction for sexual offenders discharged from prison in England and Wales. British Journal of Criminology, 41:285–292.
28. Frisbie LV, Dondis EH, Recidivism Among Treated Sex Offenders (California Mental Health Research Monograph No 5). State of California Department of Mental Hygiene Sacramento 1965
29. Goggin CE, 1994 Clinical Versus Actuarial Prediction:A Meta-Analysis Unpublished manuscript University of New Brunswick, St. John New Brunswick
30. Gough HG, California Psychological Inventory:Administrator's Guide, Consulting Psychologists Press Palo Alto CA 1987
31. Gretton, HM, McBride, M, Hare, RD, O'Shaughnessy, R, and Kumka, G. 2001. Psychopathy and recidivism in adolescent sex offenders. Criminal Justice and Behavior, 28:427–449.
32. Grove, WM, Zald, DH, Lebow, BS, Snitz, BE, and Nelson, C. 2000. Clinical versus mechanical prediction:A meta-analysis. Psychological Assessment., 12:19–30.
33. Grubin D, 1998 Sex Offending Against Children:Understanding the Risk. Home Office Research Development and Statistics Directorate Research Findings, Police Research Series, Paper 99 Home Office, Policing and Reducing Crime Unit, Research, Development and Statistics Directorate 50 Queen Anne's Gate, London UK SW1H 9AT
34. Grubin, D. 1999. Actuarial and clinical assessment of risk in sex offenders. Journal of Interpersonal Violence., 14:331–343.
35. Hanson RK, 1997 The Development of a Brief Actuarial Risk Scale for Sexual Offence Recidivism (User Report No. 1997-04). Ottawa Department of the Solicitor General of Canada Also available electronically:, http://www.sgc.gc.ca/epub/corr/e199704/e199704.htm
36. Hanson RK, Bussière MT, 1996 Predictors of Sexual Offender Recidivism:A Meta-Analysis (User Report No. 1996-04) Ottawa Department of the Solicitor General of Canada Also available electronically:, http://www.sgc.gc.ca/epub/corr/e199604/e199604.htm
37. Hanson, RK, and Bussière, MT. 1998. Predicting relapse:A meta-analysis of sexual offender recidivism studies. Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology, 66:348–362.
38. Hanson, RK, Gordon, A, Harris, AJR, Marques, JK, Murphy, W, Quinsey, VL, and Seto, MC. 2002. First report of the collaborative outcome data project on the effectiveness of psychological treatment for sex offenders. Sexual Abuse:A Journal of Research and Treatment, 14:169–194.
39. Hanson RK, Harris A, 1998 Dynamic Predictors of Sexual Recidivism Corrections Research Ottawa Department of the Solicitor General Canada Also available electronically:, http://www.sgc.gc.ca/epub/corr/e199801b/e199801b.htm
40. Hanson, RK, and Harris, A. 2000. Where should we intervene? Dynamic predictors of sexual offense recidivism. Criminal Justice and Behavior, 27:6–35.
41. Hanson, RK, and Harris, A. 2001. A structured approach to evaluating change among sexual offenders. Sexual Abuse:A Journal or Research and Treatment, 13:105–122.
42. Hanson, RK, Scott, H, and Steffy, RA. 1995. A comparison of child molesters and non-sexual criminals:Risk predictors and long-term recidivism. Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency, 32:325–337.
43. Hanson, RK, Steffy, RA, and Gauthier, R. 1993. Long-term recidivism of child molesters. Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology, 61:646–652.
44. Hanson RK, Thornton D, Improving risk assessment for sex offenders:A comparison of three actuarial scales Law and Human Behavior 24 119 136 2000 (a description of Static-99 can also be found on the Solicitor General of Canada's website)
45. Hanson RK, Thornton D, 1999 Improving risk assessment for sex offenders:A comparison of three actuarial scales Solicitor General of Canada www.sgc.gc.ca/epub/corr/e199902/e199902.htm
46. Hare R, Manual for the Revised Psychopathy Checklist, MultiHealth Systems, Inc Toronto Ontario 1991
47. Hare R, 2002, September Psychopathy and Dangerousness:From Risk Assessment to Risk Reduction Paper presented at the National Organisation for the Treatment of Abusers:Annual Conference; The Challenge of Dangerous Lancaster University UK
48. Hare R, Forth A, Kosson D, 2003 Psychopathy Checklist:Youth Version (PCL:YV) Toronto Ontario MultiHealth Systems, Inc.
49. Harris, GT, Rice, ME, and Cormier, CA. 2002. Prospective replication of the violent risk appraisal guide in predicting violent recidivism among forensic patients. Law and Human Behavior, 26:377–394.
50. Harris, GT, Rice, ME, and Quinsey, VL. 1994. Psychopathy as a taxon:Evidence that psychopaths are a dis crete class. Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology, 62:387–397.
51. Hood, R, Shute, S, Feilzer, M, and Wilcox, A. 2002. Sex offenders emerging from long-term imprisonment:A study of their long-term reconviction rates and of parole board members’ judgements of their risk. British Journal of Criminology, 42:371–394.
52. Hudson, SM, Wales, DS, Bakker, L, and Ward, T. 2002. Dynamic risk factors:The Kia Marama evaluation. Sexual Abuse:A Journal of Research and Treatment, 14:103–119.
53. Kiehl, KA, Hare, RD, McDonald, JJ, and Brink, J. 1999. Semantic and affective processing in psychopaths:An event-related potential (ERP) study. Psychophysiology, 36:765–774.
54. Lalumiere, ML, and Harris, GT. 1998. Common questions regarding the use of phallometric testing with sexual offenders. Sexual Abuse:A Journal of Research and Treatment, 10:227–237.
55. Laws DR, Penile plethysmography:Will we ever get it right? In T. Ward., D. R. Laws. & S. M. Hudson (Eds.), Sexual Deviance:Issues and Controversies, Sage Publications Inc CA (pp. 82–102) 2003
56. Långström, N, and Grann, M. 2000. Risk for criminal recidivism among young sex offenders. Journal of Interpersonal Violence., 15:855–871.
57. Linehan MM, Cognitive-Behavioural Treatment of Borderline Personality Disorder, Guilford Press New York 1993
58. Litwack, TR. 2001. Actuarial versus clinical assessments of dangerousness. Psychology, Public Policy and Law, 7:409–443.
59. Malcolm, PB, Andrews, DA, and Quinsey, VL. 1993. discriminant and predictive validity of phallometrically measured sexual age and gender preferences. Journal of Interpersonal Violence, 8:486–501.
60. Marshall, P. 1994. Reconviction of imprisoned sexual offenders. Home Office Research Bulletin, 36:23–29.
61. McGuire, TJ. 2000. Correctional institution based sex offender treatment:A lapse behaviour study. Behavioral Sciences and the Law, 18:57–71.
62. McNeil, DE, Sandberg, DA, and Binder, RL. 1998. The relationship between confidence and accuracy in clinical assessment of psychiatric patients’ potential for violence. Law and Human Behavior, 22:655–669.
63. Monahan J, The Clinical Prediction of Violent Behaviour, US Government Policing Office Washington DC 1981
64. Monahan, J. 1984. The prediction of violent behaviour:Toward a second generation of theory and policy. American Journal of Psychiatry, 141:10–15.
65. Monahan, J. 1996. Violence prediction:The past twenty and the next twenty years. Criminal Justice and Behavior, 23:107–120.
66. Mossman, D. 1994. Assessing predictions of violence:Being accurate about accuracy. Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology, 62:783–792.
67. National Organisation for the Treatment of Abusers (NOTA). 2002. Answers to frequently asked questions about sex offending. NOTANews, 43:13–20.
68. Porter, S, Birt, AR, and Boer, DP. 2001. Investigation of the criminal and conditional release profiles of Canadian federal offenders as a function of psychopathy and age. Law and Human Behavior, 25:647–661.
69. Porter, S, Fairweather, D, Drugge, J, Herve, H, Birt, A, and Boer, DP. 2000. Profiles of psychopathy in incarcerated sexual offenders. Criminal Justice and Behavior, 27:216–233.
70. Prentky RA, Burgess AW, Forensic Management of Sexual Offenders:Perspectives in Sexuality, Behavior, Research and Therapy, Kluwer Academic/Plenum Publishers New York 2000
71. Prentky, RA, Harrris, B, Frizzell, K, and Righthand, S. 2000. Development and validation of an actuarial instrument for assessing risk among juvenile sex offenders. Sexual Abuse:A Journal of Research and Treatment, 12:71–93.
72. Prentky, RA, Knight, RA, and Lee, AFS. 1997. Risk factors associated with recidivism among extrafamilial child molesters. Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology, 65:141–149.
73. Prentky, RA, Lee, AFS, Knight, RA, and Cerce, O. 1997. Recidivism rates among child molesters and rapists:a methodological analysis. Law and Human Behaviour, 21:635–659.
74. Proulx, J, Pellerin, B, McKibben, A, Aubut, J, and Ouimet, M. 1997. Static and dynamic risk predictors of recidivism in sexual offenders. Sexual Abuse:A Journal of Research and Treatment, 9:7–27.
75. Quinsey, VL, Chaplin, TC, and Carrigan, WF. 1980. Biofeedback and signalled punishment in the modification on appropriate sexual age preferences. Behavior Therapy, 11:567–576.
76. Quinsey V, Earls CM, The modification of sexual preferences In W. L. Marshall, D. R. Laws & H. E. Barbaree (Eds), Handbook of Sexual Assault:Issues, Theories and Treatment of The Offender, Plenum Press New York (pp. 279–295) 1990
77. Quinsey VL, Harris GT, Rice ME, Cormier CA, Violent Offenders:Appraising and Managing Risk, American Psychological Association Washington DC 1998
78. Quinsey, VL, Khanna, A, and Malcolm, B. 1998. A retrospective evaluation of the Regional Treatment Centre Sex Offender Treatment Programme. Journal of Interpersonal Violence, 13:621–644.
79. Quinsey, VL, Rice, ME, and Harris, GT. 1995. Actuarial prediction of sexual recidivism. Journal of Interpersonal Violence, 10:85–105.
80. Rice, ME, and Harris, GT. 1997. Cross-validation and extension of the violence risk appraisal guide for child molesters and rapists. Law and Human Behaviour, 21:231–241.
81. Rice ME, Harris GT, (1999, October) A Multi-Site Follow-up Study of Sex Offenders:The Predictive Accuracy of Risk Prediction Instruments Third Annual Research Day of the University of Toronto Forensic Psychiatry Program Penetanguishene Canada
82. Rice, ME, Harris, GT, and Cormier, C. 1992. Evaluations of a maximum security therapeutic community for psychopaths and other mentally disordered offenders. Law and Human Behavior, 16:399–412.
83. Rice, ME, Harris, GT, and Quinsey, VL. 1990. A follow-up of rapists assessed in a maximum-security psychiatric facility. Journal of Interpersonal Violence, 5:435–448.
84. Rice, ME, Quinsey, VL, and Harris, GT. 1991. Sexual recidivism among child molesters released from a maximum security psychiatric institution. Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology, 59:381–386.
85. Richards, HJ, Casey, JO, and Lucente, SW. 2004. Psychopathy and treatment response in incarcerated female substance abusers. Criminal Justice and Behavior, 30:251–276.
86. Rogers, R. 2000. The uncritical acceptance of risk assessment in forensic practice. Law and Human Behavior, 24:595–605.
87. Salekin, RT. 2002. Psychopathy and therapeutic pessimism:clinical lore or clinical reality?. Clinical Psychology Review, 22:79–112.
88. Schiller G, Marques J, 1999 California Actuarial Risk Assessment Tables for Rapists and Child Molesters (CARAT) Presented at A. Salter Predicting Sexual Recidivism Honolulu Hawaii 1999
89. Serin, RC, Mailloux, DL, and Malcolm, PB. 2001. Psychopathy, deviant sexual arousal, and recidivism among sexual offenders. Journal of Interpersonal Violence, 16:234–246.
90. Seto, MC, and Barbaree, HE. 1999. Psychopathy, treatment behaviour, and sex offender recidivism. Journal of Interpersonal Violence, 14:1235–1248.
91. Skeem, JL, Monahan, J, and Mulvey, EP. 2002. Psychopathy, treatment involvement, and subsequent violence among civil psychiatric patients. Law and Human Behavior, 26:577–603.
92. Sreenivasan, S, Kirkish, P, Garrick, T, Weinberger, LE, and Phenix, A. 2000. Actuarial risk assessment:A review of critical issues related to violence and sex-offender recidivism assessments. The Journal of the American Academy of Psychiatry and the Law, 28:438–448.
93. Thornton, D. 2002. Constructing and testing a framework for dynamic risk assessment. Sexual Abuse:A Journal of Research and Treatment, 14:137–151.
94. Thornton D, (1997, September) Structured Anchor Clinical Judgement Risk Assessment (SACJ) Proceedings of the NOTA Conference Brighton September
95. Thornton D, Travers R, 1991 A Longitudinal Study of the Criminal Behaviour of Convicted Sexual Offenders Proceedings of the Prison Psychologists’ Conference HM Prison Service
96. Thornton D, Mann R, Webster S, Blud L, Travers R, Friendship C, Erikson M, 2003 Distinguishing and combining risks for sexual and violent recidivism In R. Prentky, E. Janus, M. Seto, & A.W. Burgess (Eds), Understanding and Managing Sexually Coercive Behavior, Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences Vol 989 pp. 225–235
97. Witt PH, DelRusso J, Oppenheim J, Ferguson G, 1996 Sex offender risk assessment and the law Journal of Psychiatry and Law, Fall 343 377
98. Woodworth, M, and Porter, S. 2002. In cold blood:Characteristics of criminal homicides as a function of psychopathy. Journal of Abnormal Psychology, 111:436–445.
99. Worling, J, and Curwen, T. 2000. Adolescent sexual offender recidivism:Success of specialized treatment and implications for risk prediction. Child Abuse and Neglect, 24:965–982.
100. Worling, J. 2001. Personality based typology of adolescent male sexual offenders:differences in recidivism rates, victim-selection characteristics, and personal victimisation histories. Sexual Abuse:A Journal or Research and Treatment., 13:149–166.