Alternative methods of estimating an incubation distribution: Examples from severe acute respiratory syndrome

Epidemiology

Volumn 18, Issue 2, 2007, Pages 253-259

  Cowling, Benjamin J ^a   Muller, Matthew P ^b,c   Wong, Irene O L ^a   Ho, Lai Ming ^a   Louie, Marie ^c   McGeer, Allison ^b,c   Leung, Gabriel M ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF HONG KONG   (Hong Kong)

^b MOUNT SINAI HOSPITAL   (Canada)

^c Canadian SARS Research Network   (Canada)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

ADULT; ARTICLE; CANADA; DATA ANALYSIS; EPIDEMIC; FEMALE; HEALTH CARE PERSONNEL; HONG KONG; HUMAN; INCUBATION TIME; MAJOR CLINICAL STUDY; MALE; PRIORITY JOURNAL; SEVERE ACUTE RESPIRATORY SYNDROME; STATISTICAL ANALYSIS;

COMMUNICABLE DISEASE CONTROL; COMMUNICABLE DISEASES, EMERGING; CONTACT TRACING; DISEASE OUTBREAKS; HONG KONG; HUMANS; MODELS, BIOLOGICAL; ONTARIO; QUARANTINE; REGRESSION ANALYSIS; SEVERE ACUTE RESPIRATORY SYNDROME; TIME FACTORS;

EID: 33847041845     PISSN: 10443983     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1097/01.ede.0000254660.07942.fb     Document Type: Article

References (22)

1. World Health Organization. Consensus document on the epidemiology of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS). 2003. Available at: http://www.who.int/csr/sars/WHOconsensus.pdf. Accessed December 7, 2006.
2. World Health Organization. Case Definitions for Surveillance of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS). 2003. Available at: http://www.who.int/csr/ sars/casedefinition/en/. Accessed December 7, 2006.
3. Riley S, Fraser C, Donnelly CA, et al. Transmission dynamics of the etiological agent of SARS in Hong Kong: impact of public health interventions. Science. 2003;300:1961-1966.
4. Lindsey JC, Ryan LM. Tutorial in biostatistics methods for interval-censored data[-erratum appears in Stat Med. 1999 Apr 15;18:890]. Stat Med. 1998;17:219-238.
5. De Gruttola V, Lagakos SW. Analysis of doubly-censored survival data, with application to AIDS. Biometrics. 1989;45:1-11.
6. Donnelly CA, Ghani AC, Leung GM, et al. Epidemiological determinants of spread of causal agent of severe acute respiratory syndrome in Hong Kong. Lancet. 2003;361:1761-1766.
7. Severe acute respiratory syndrome - Singapore, 2003. Morb Mortal Wkly Rep. 2003;52:405-411.
8. Svoboda T, Henry B, Shulman L, et al. Public health measures to control the spread of the severe acute respiratory syndrome during the outbreak in Toronto. N Engl J Med. 2004;350:2352-2361.
9. Varia M, Wilson S, Sarwal S, et al. Investigation of a nosocomial outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) in Toronto, Canada. CMAJ. 2003;169:285-292.
10. Farewell VT, Herzberg AM, James KW, et al. SARS incubation and quarantine times: when is an exposed individual known to be disease free? Stat Med. 2005;24:3431-3445.
11. Meltzer MI. Multiple contact dates and SARS incubation periods. Emerg Infect Dis. 2004;10:207-209.
12. Leung GM, Hedley AJ, Ho LM, et al. The epidemiology of severe acute respiratory syndrome in the 2003 Hong Kong epidemic: an analysis of all 1755 patients. Ann Intern Med. 2004;141:662-673.
13. Cai QC, Xu QF, Xu JM, et al. Refined estimate of the incubation period of severe acute respiratory syndrome and related influencing factors. Am J Epidemiol. 2006;163:211-216.
14. Kuk AY, Ma S. The estimation of SARS incubation distribution from serial interval data using a convolution likelihood. Stat Med. 2005;24:2525-2537.
15. Turnbull BW. The empirical distribution function with arbitrarily grouped, censored and truncated data. J Roy Statist Soc: Series B. 1976;38:290-295.
16. Klein JP, Moeschberger ML. Survival Analysis: Techniques for Censored and Truncated Data. Statistics for Biology and Health. 2nd ed. New York: Springer; 2003.
17. Lindsey JK. A study of interval censoring in parametric regression models. Lifetime Data Anal. 1998;4:329-354.
18. Muller MP, Richardson SE, McGeer A, et al. Early diagnosis of SARS: lessons from the Toronto SARS outbreak -[in press]. Eur J Clin Microbiol Infect Dis. 2006;25:230-237.
19. Sartwell PE. The distribution of incubation periods of infectious diseases. Am J Hygiene. 1950;51:310-318.
20. Kondo K. The lognormal distribution of the incubation time of exogenous diseases. Genetic interpretations and a computer simulation. Jinrui Idengaku Zasshi [-Japanese Journal of Human Genetics]. 1977;21:217-237.
21. Peiris JS, Chu CM, Cheng VC, et al. Clinical progression and viral load in a community outbreak of coronavirus-associated SARS pneumonia: a prospective study. Lancet. 2003;361:1767-1772.
22. Leung GM, Rainer TH, Lau FL, et al. A clinical prediction rule for diagnosing severe acute respiratory syndrome in the emergency department. Ann Intern Med. 2004;141:333-342.