A probabilistic framework for Bayesian adaptive forecasting of project progress

Computer-Aided Civil and Infrastructure Engineering

Volumn 22, Issue 3, 2007, Pages 182-196

  Gardoni, Paolo ^a   Reinschmidt, Kenneth F ^a   Kumar, Ramesh ^a  

^a Texas AandM University   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

FORECASTING; NUCLEAR POWER PLANTS; STATISTICAL METHODS;

BAYESIAN ADAPTIVE FORECASTING; FINAL TIME-TO-COMPLETION;

PROJECT MANAGEMENT;

FORECASTING; NUCLEAR POWER PLANTS; PROJECT MANAGEMENT; STATISTICAL METHODS;

BAYESIAN ANALYSIS; ERROR ANALYSIS; FORECASTING METHOD; NUCLEAR POWER PLANT; PROBABILITY; PROJECT MANAGEMENT;

NORTH AMERICA; UNITED STATES;

EID: 33846799194     PISSN: 10939687     EISSN: 14678667     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-8667.2007.00478.x     Document Type: Article

References (28)

1. Barraza, G. A., Back, W. E. & Mata, F. (2000), Probabilistic monitoring of project performance using SS-curves, Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, ASCE, 126 (2), 142-48.
2. Barraza, G. A., Back, W. E. & Mata, F. (2004), Probabilistic forecasting of project performance using stochastic S curves, Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, ASCE, 130 (1), 25-32.
3. Box, G. E. P. & Cox, D. R. (1964), An analysis of transformations (with discussion), Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series B, 26, 211-52.
4. Box, G. E. P. & Tiao, G. C. (1992), Bayesian Inference in Statistical Analysis, Addison-Wesley, Reading, MA.
5. Christiansson, P., Dawood, N. N. & Svidt, K. (2002), Virtual buildings (VB) and tools to manage construction process operations, in CIB W78 Conference on Distributing Knowledge in Building, Aarhus, Denmark, June 12-14.
6. Cioffi, D. F. (2005), A tool for managing projects: An analytic parameterization of the S-curve, International Journal of Project Management, 23, 215-22.
7. Cooper, K. G. (1994), The $2,000 hour: How managers influence project performance through the rework cycle, Project Management Journal, 25 (1), 11-24.
8. Crandall, K. C. & Woolery, J. C. (1982), Schedule development under stochastic scheduling, Journal of Construction Division, ASCE, 108 (2), 321-29.
9. Ditlevsen, O. & Madsen, H. O. (1996), Structural Reliability Methods, J. Wiley, New York, New York.
10. Fishman, G. S. (1978), Principles of Discrete Simulation, Wiley, New York.
11. Gardoni, P., Der Kiureghian, A. & Mosalam, K. M. (2002), Probabilistic capacity models and fragility estimates for RC columns based on experimental observations, Journal of Engineering Mechanics, ASCE, 128 (10), 1024-38.
12. Gardoni, P. (2002), Probabilistic Models and Fragility Estimates for Structural Components and Systems, Ph.D. dissertation, University of California, Berkeley, CA.
13. Geyskens, P., Der Kiureghian, A. & Monteiro, P. (June 1993), BUMP: Bayesian Updating of Model Parameters, Report UCB/SEMM-93/06, Structural Engineering, Mechanics and Materials, Department of Civil Engineering. University of California, Berkeley, CA.
14. Jeffreys, H. (1961), Theory of Probability, 3rd edn., Clarendon Press, Oxford, UK.
15. Kim, B.-C., Cohen, R., Ertem, E. & Taylor, T. (2005), Forecasting United States Nuclear Power Plant Construction Completion, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX.
16. Liu, P.-L. & Der Kiureghian, A. (1986), Multi-variate distribution models with prescribed marginals and covariances, Probabilistic Engineering Mechanics, 1 (2), 105-12.
17. Matlab reference manual; version 5.3 (1999), MathWorks, Inc., Natick, MA.
18. Mulholland, B. & Christian, J., (1999), Risk assessment in construction schedules, Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, ASCE, 125 (1), 8-15.
19. Rao, G. & Grobler, F. (1995), Integrated analyses of cost risk and schedule risk, in Proceedings of the 2nd Congress in Computers in Civil Engineering, ASCE, New York, 1404-11.
20. Rao, C. R. & Toutenburg, H. (1997), Linear Models, Least Squares and Alternatives, Springer, New York, New York.
21. Reinschmidt, K. F. (2004), Project Risk Management, Class Notes. Zachry Department of Civil Engineering, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX.
22. Richards, F. S. G. (1961), A method of maximum likelihood estimation, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, 23, 469-75.
23. Stone, J. C. (1996), A Course in Probability and Statistics, Duxbury Press, Belmont, CA.
24. Teicholz, P. (1993), Forecasting final cost and budget of construction projects, Journal of Computation in Civil Engineering, 7 (4), 511-29.
25. Touran, A. (1993), Probabilistic cost estimating with subjective correlations, Journal of Construction Engineering Management, 119 (1), 58-71.
26. U. S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC), Nuclear Power Plant Construction Status Reports, Washington DC, various dates from 1977 to 1982.
27. Vergara, A. & Boyer, L. (1974), Probabilistic approach to estimating and cost control, Journal of Construction Division, ASCE, 100 (4), 543-52.
28. Wheelwright, C. (1995), Forecasting Methods for Management, 4th edn., Wiley, New York.