Projecting future drug expenditures - 2007

American Journal of Health-System Pharmacy

Volumn 64, Issue 3, 2007, Pages 298-314

  Hoffman, James M ^a,b   Shah, Nilay D ^c   Vermeulen, Lee C ^d,e   Schumock, Glen T ^f   Grim, Penny ^g   Hunkler, Robert J ^g   Hontz, Karrie M ^g  

^a ST JUDE CHILDREN S RESEARCH HOSPITAL   (United States)

^b UNIVERSITY OF TENNESSEE HEALTH SCIENCE CENTER   (United States)

^c Mayo Clinic   (United States)

^d University of Wisconsin Health   (United States)

^e UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN MADISON   (United States)

^f UNIVERSITY OF ILLINOIS AT CHICAGO   (United States)

^g IQVIA   (United States)

Author keywords

Costs; Drug use; Drugs; Economics; Health benefit programs; Patents; Prescriptions; Pricing; Product development; Toxicity

Indexed keywords

ALENDRONIC ACID; AMLODIPINE BESYLATE; CARVEDILOL; CEREBRYX; CETIRIZINE; ETIRACETAM; FENTANYL CITRATE; FOSPHENYTOIN SODIUM; GENERIC DRUG; GRANISETRON; IRINOTECAN; METOPROLOL SUCCINATE; RISPERIDONE; SALMETEROL XINAFOATE; SUMATRIPTAN SUCCINATE; UNCLASSIFIED DRUG; VALPROATE SEMISODIUM; VENLAFAXINE; ZALEPLON; ZIPRASIDONE; ZOLPIDEM TARTRATE;

DRUG COST; DRUG INDUSTRY; DRUG MARKETING; DRUG USE; ECONOMICS; EMPLOYEE; EMPLOYER; HEALTH CARE PLANNING; HEALTH INSURANCE; HUMAN; PRESCRIPTION; PRIORITY JOURNAL; REVIEW; SAFETY;

EID: 33846651929     PISSN: 10792082     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.2146/ajhp060545     Document Type: Review

References (84)

1. IMS Health National Sales Perspectives. Analysis conducted by the authors.
2. Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services. National health expenditures. www.cms.gov/statistics/nhe/ (accessed 2006 Aug 23).
3. Smith C, Cowan C, Heffler S et al. National health spending in 2004: recent slow-down led by prescription drug spending. Health Aff. 2006; 25:186-96.
4. Gabel J, Claxton G, Gil I et al. Health benefits in 2005: premium increases slow down, coverage continues to erode. Health Aff. 2005; 24:1273-80.
5. Borger C, Smith S, Truffer C et al. Health spending projections through 2015: changes on the horizon. Health Aff. 2006; 25:W61-73.
6. Kaiser Family Foundation. State health facts. http://statehealthfacts. org/cgi-bin/healthfacts.cgi (accessed 2006 Sep 4).
7. Strunk BC, Ginsburg PB, Banker MI. The effect of population aging on future hospital demand. Health Aff. 2006; 25: W141-9.
8. American Hospital Association. Trends affecting hospitals and health-systems, TrendWatch chartbook. www.hospitalconnect.com/ahapolicyforum/ trendwatch/chartbook2003.html (accessed 2004 Aug 29).
9. IMS Health National Prescription Audit. Analysis conducted by the authors.
10. Hoffman JM, Shah ND, Vermeulen LC et al. Projecting drug expenditures - 2006. Am J Health-Syst Pharm. 2006; 63:123-38.
11. Hoffman JM, Shah ND, Vermeulen LC et al. Projecting drug expenditures - 2004. Am J Health-Syst Pharm. 2004; 61:145-58.
12. Lee TH. "Me-too" products - friend or foe? N Engl J Med. 2004; 350:211-2. [Erratum, N Engl J Med. 2004; 350:1586.]
13. DiMasi JA, Hansen RW, Grabowski HG. The price of innovation: new estimates of drug development costs. J Health Econ. 2003; 22:151-85.
14. Adams P, Brantner W. Estimating the cost of new drug development: is it really $802 million? Health Aff. 2006; 25:420-8.
15. Keyhani S, Diener-West M, Powe N. Are development times for pharmaceuticals increasing or decreasing? Health Aff. 2006; 25:461-8.
16. Center for Drug Evaluation and Research. CDER report to the nation 2005. www.fda.gov/cder/reports/rtn/2005/rtn2005.pdf (accessed 2006 Sep 9).
17. Food and Drug Administration. CDER drug and biologics report. www.fda.gov/cder/rdmt (accessed 2006 Sep 9).
18. Oncology, CNS agents may dominate 2006 NME approvals; 2005 total is 18. FDC Rep Pink Sheet. 2006; Jan 9:25.
19. Taguchi A, Sharma N, Saleem RM et al. Selective postoperative inhibition of gastrointestinal opioid receptors. N Engl J Med. 2001; 345:935-40.
20. Leslie JB. Alvimopan for the management of postoperative ileus. Ann Pharmacother. 2005; 39:1502-10.
21. PR Newswire. Adolor receives FDA approvable letter for Entereg (alvimopan). www.prnewswire.com/cgi-bin/stories.pl?ACCT=104&STORY=/www/ story/07-22-2005/0004072723&EDATE (accessed 2006 Sep 15).
22. GlaxoSmithKline. Adolor and GlaxoSmithKline report positive top-line results in phase 3 study 314 of Entereg (alvimopan) in postoperative ileus. www.gsk.com/ControllerServlet?appId=4&pageId=402&newsid=736 (accessed 2006 Sep 15).
23. Adolor Corporation. FDA issues approvable letter for Entereg (alvimopan) for POI. http://phx.corporate-ir.net/phoenix.zhtml?c=120919&p=irol- newsArticle&t=Regular&id=926785 (accessed 2006 Dec 12).
24. Melnikova I. Anaemia therapies. Nat Rev Drug Discov. 2006; 5:627-8.
25. Crane M. Amgen faces suffer competition to EPO franchise 7.17.06. www.forbes.com/2006/07/17/amgen-0717markets12_print.html (accessed 2006 Sep 15).
26. Roche Pharmaceuticals. C.E.R.A. antianemia drug maintained stable hemoglobin levels in dialysis patients with up to once every four week dosing in phase III clinical studies. www.rocheusa.com/newsroom/current/2006/ pr2006080801.html (accessed 2006 Sep 15).
27. Roche CERA does not infringe EPO patents. FDC Rep Pink Sheet. 2006; Sep 4:24.
28. Rogers EM. Diffusion of innovations. 4th ed. New York: Free; 1995.
29. Park-Wyllie LY, Juurlink DN, Kopp A et al. Outpatient gatifloxacin therapy and dysglycemia in older adults. N Engl J Med. 2006; 354:1352-61.
30. Food and Drug Administration. Gatifloxacin (marketed as Tequin) information. www.fda.gov/cder/drug/infopage/gatifloxacin/default.htm (accessed 2006 Sep 10).
31. Schmid R. Bristol-Myers Squibb pulls troubled antibiotic Tequin. St. Louis Post-Dispatch. 2006; May 2:C2.
32. Clay KD, Hanson JS, Pope SD et al. Severe hepatotoxicity of telithromycin: three case reports and literature review. Ann Intern Med. 2006; 144:415-20.
33. Wilde Matthews A. FDA panel urges prominent warning label for antibiotic. Wall St J. 2006; May 19:B1.
34. Food and Drug Administration. Telithromycin (marketed as Ketek) information. www.fda.gov/cder/drug/infopage/telithromycin/default.htm (accessed 2006 Sep 10)
35. Sackner-Bernstein JD, Kowalski M, Fox M et al. Short-term risk of death after treatment with nesiritide for decompensated heart failure: a pooled analysis of randomized controlled trials. JAMA. 2005; 293:1900-5.
36. Sackner-Bernstein JD, Skopicik HA, Aaronson KD. Risk of worsening renal function with nesiritide in patients with acutely decompensated heart failure. Circulation. 2005; 111:1487-91.
37. Winslow R. J&J unit plans big safety study of heart drug. Wall St J. 2006; Jun 2:A15.
38. Winslow R. J&J names institute to lead trial of its Natrecor heart drug. Wall St J. 2006; Sep 8:B4.
39. Morris M, Villmann M. Echinocandins in the management of invasive fungal infections, part 1. Am J Health-Syst Pharm. 2006; 63:1693-703.
40. Chandrasekar PH, Sobel JD. Micafungin: a new echinocandin. Clin Infect Dis. 2006; 42:1171-8.
41. Pollack A. Questions over new eyesight drug that may be as good as older, cheaper one. N Y Times. 2006; Jun 29:C3.
42. Rosenfeld PJ, Brown DM, Heier JS et al. Ranibizumab for neovascular age-related macular degeneration. N Engl J Med. 2006; 355:1419-31.
43. Steinbrook R. The price of sight - ranibizumab, bevacizumab, and the treatment of macular degeneration. N Engl J Med. 2006; 355:1409-12.
44. Hoffman JM, Shah ND, Vermeulen LC et al. Projecting future drug expenditures - 2006. Am J Health-Syst Pharm. 2006; 63:123-38.
45. Pharmaceutical Business Review Online. GlaxoSmithKline: Zofran sales set for off-par performance. www.pharmaceutical-business-review.com/article_feature. asp?guid=ECCE6955-AC8A-4B45-AB13-8C068AD4CC2D (accessed 2006 Sep 10).
46. Generic Plavix will slow U.S. pharmaceutical sales growth in 2006 - IMS. FDC Rep Pink Sheet. 2006; Sep 11:12.
47. Generic Pharmaceutical Association. Generics in the future. www.gphaonline.org/Content/NavigationMenu/AboutGenerics/Statistics/Statistics. htm (accessed 2006 Sep 3).
48. Kaufman M. Petitions to FDA sometimes delay generic drugs. Wash Post. 2006; Jul 3:A1.
49. Library of Congress. S.2300. A bill to amend the Federal Food, Drug, and Cosmetic Act with respect to market exclusivity for certain drugs and for other purposes. http://thomas.loc.gov/cgi-bin/bdquery/z?d109:SN02300:@@@D&summ2= m& (accessed 2006 Sep 10).
50. Library of Congress. H.R. 6022. A bill to amend the Federal Food, Drug, and Cosmetic Act with respect to market exclusivity for certain drugs and for other purposes. http://thomas.loc.gov/cgi-bin/bdquery/z?d109:h.r.06022: (accessed 2006 Sep 10).
51. Glass G. Authorized generics. Nat Rev Drug Discov. 2005; 4:953-4.
52. Nocera J. Generic drugs: the window has loopholes. N Y Times. 2006; Jul 1:C1.
53. Generic Pharmaceutical Association. Authorized generics. www.gphaonline.org/AM/Template.cfm?Section=Home&template=/CM/HTMLDisplay. cfm&ContentID=2744 (accessed 2006 Sep 10).
54. Federal Trade Commission. FTC proposes study of competitive impacts of authorized generic drugs. www.ftc.gov/opa/2006/03/authgenerics.htm (accessed 2006 Sep 10).
55. Yi D. Bill would limit 'authorized generics.' L A Times. 2006; Jul 21:C3.
56. Generic Pharmaceutical Association. GPhA praises Emerson's house companion version of Rockefeller authorized generic bill. www.gphaonline.org/AM/ Template.cfm?Section=Media&Template=/CM/HTMLDisplay.cfm&ContentID=2653 (accessed 2006 Sep 10).
57. Generic drug reviews take a hit in FDA 2007 budget request. FDC Rep Pink Sheet. 2006; Feb 13:7.
58. Kaufman M. Generic drugs hit backlog at FDA; no plans to expand review capabilities. Wash Post. 2006; Feb 4:A1.
59. FDA downplays generic drug backlog but plays up need for more funding. FDC Rep Pink Sheet. 2006; Jul 31:15.
60. Grabowski G, Cockburn I, Long G. The market for follow-on biologics: how will it evolve? Health Aff. 2006; 25:1291-301.
61. FDA clears Omnitrope; product is not the process, but nor is it a pathway. FDC Rep Pink Sheet. 2006; Jun 5:3.
62. Food and Drug Administration. Omnitrope (somatropin [rDNA origin]) questions and answers. www.fda.gov/cder/drug/infopage/somatropin/qa.htm (accessed 2006 Sep 15).
63. Generic Pharmaceutical Association. Generic biopharmaceuticals. www.gphaonline.org/AM/Template.cfm?Section=Issues&CONTENTID= 1948&TEMPLATE=/CM/HTMLDisplay.cfm (accessed 2006 Sep 15).
64. Biotechnology Industry Organization. Follow-on biotechnology products. www.bio.org/healthcare/followon/ (accessed 2006 Sep 15).
65. Belsey MJ, Harris LM, Das RR et al. Biosimilars: initial excitement gives way to reality. Nat Rev Drug Discov. 2006; 5: 535-6.
66. Kaiser Family Foundation. Bill would expand access to generic biotechnology medications. www.kaisernetwork.org/daily_reports/rep_index.cfm? DR_ID=40180 (accessed 2006 Oct 5).
67. Rapp RP, Armistead J, Hamlin A. Price hikes for generic injectable antibiotics. Am J Heahh-Syst Pharm. 2004; 61: 1554,1556. Letter.
68. Maris D. Future of generics: a Wall Street perspective. www.gphaonline.org/AM/Template.cfm?Section=Home§ion=API_2006& template=/CM/ContentDisplay.cfm&ContentFileID=220 (accessed 2006 Sep 10).
69. Berenson A. A cancer drug's big price rise disturbs doctors and patients. N Y Times. 2006; Mar 12:1.1.
70. Vecchione A. Sharp hike in some Rx prices rankles hospitals. www.drugtopics.com/drugtopics/article/articleDetail.jsp?id=319175 (accessed 2006 Dec 15).
71. Herper M. The generic onslaught. www.forbes.com/2006/06/23/drugs-patents- expiration-cz_mh_0623generics_print.html (accessed 2006 Sep 10).
72. Department of Health and Human Services. Over 38 million people with Medicare now receiving prescription drug coverage. http://hhs.gov/news/press/ 2006pres/20060614.html (accessed 2006 Sep 12).
73. Kaiser Family Foundation. Prescription drug coverage among Medicare beneficiaries. www.kff.org/medicare/upload/7453.pdf#search= %22medicare%20part%20D%20enrollment%22 (accessed 2006 Sep 12).
74. Bach P, McClelland M. The first months of the prescription-drug benefit - a CMS update. N Engl J Med. 2006; 354: 2312-4.
75. Kaiser Family Foundation. National survey of pharmacists and national survey of physicians. Findings of Medicare Part D. www.kff.org/kaiserpolls/ upload/7556.pdf (accessed 2006 Sep 12).
76. Yost RD. New economics of the pharmaceutical supply chain. Am J Health-Syst Pharm. 2005; 62:525-6.
77. Dunehew A. Changing dynamics in the pharmaceutical supply chain: a GPO perspective. Am J Health-Syst Pharm. 2005; 62:527-9.
78. Wholesalers beginning to maximize value of fee-for-service deals. FDC Rep Pink Sheet. 2006; Aug 14:15.
79. Thompson CA. New Genentech distribution plan not finished. www.ashp.org/news/ShowArticle.cfm?id=15498 (accessed 2006 Sep 15).
80. Thompson CA. Genentech says new distribution plan well received. www.ashp.org/news/ShowArticle.cfm?cfid=18340100&CFToken=81342795&id= 15996 (accessed 2006 Sep 15).
81. 2005 Drug trend report. St. Louis: Express Scripts; 2006 Jun.
82. 2006 Drug trend report: personalizing healthcare. Franklin Lakes, NJ: Medco Health; 2006 May.
83. Weir HK, Thun MJ, Hankey BF et al. Annual report to the nation on the status of cancer, 1975-2000, featuring the uses of surveillance data for cancer prevention and control. J Natl Cancer Inst. 2003; 95:1276-99.
84. Conmy D. The quest for population: with US prescription drug sales falling to 5.4% in 2005, the challenge for pharmaceutical companies is to balance resources with results. Med Mark Media. 2006; 41:40-9.