Trends in block-seasonal extreme rainfall over the Iberian Peninsula in the second half of the twentieth century

Journal of Climate

Volumn 20, Issue 1, 2007, Pages 113-130

  García, José Agustín ^a   Gallego, María Cruz ^a   Serrano, Antonio ^a   Vaquero, José Manuel ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF EXTREMADURA   (Spain)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

CLIMATE CHANGE; RAIN; STATISTICAL METHODS;

FREQUENCY DISTRIBUTION; MANN-KENDALL TEST; SEN METHOD;

CLIMATOLOGY;

PRECIPITATION ASSESSMENT; PRECIPITATION INTENSITY; TEMPORAL ANALYSIS; TWENTIETH CENTURY;

EURASIA; EUROPE; IBERIAN PENINSULA; SOUTHERN EUROPE;

EID: 33846441992     PISSN: 08948755     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1175/JCLI3995.1     Document Type: Article

References (53)

1. Alexandersson, H., and A. Moberg, 1997: Homogenization of Swedish temperature data. Part 1: Homogeneity test for linear trends. Int. J. Climatol., 17, 25-34.
2. Christensen, J. H., and O. B. Christensen, 2002: Severe summertime flooding in Europe. Nature, 421, 805-806.
3. Coles, S., 2001: An Introduction to Statistical Modeling of Extreme Values. Springer-Verlag, 208 pp.
4. Cubasch, U., and Coauthors, 2001: Projections of future climate change. Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis, J. T. Houghton et al., Eds., Cambridge University Press, 527-582.
5. Davison, A. C., and N. I. Rames, 2000: Local likelihood smoothing of sample extremes. J. Roy. Stat. Soc., 62B, 191-208.
6. De Luís, M., J. Raventós, J. C. González-Hidalgo, J. Sánchez, and J. Cortina, 2000: Spatial analysis of rainfall trends in the region of Valencia (east Spain). Int. J. Climatol., 20, 1451-1469.
7. Durman, C. F., J. M. Gregory, D. C. Hassell, R. Jones, and J. M. Murphy, 2001: A comparison of extreme European daily precipitation simulated by a global and a regional climate model for present and future climates. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 127, 1005-1015.
8. Esteban-Parra, M. J., F. S. Rodrigo, and Y. Castro-Diez, 1998: Spatial and temporal patterns of precipitation in Spain for the period 1880-1992. Int. J. Climatol., 18, 1557-1574.
9. Fields Development Team, cited 2004: Tools for spatial data. [Available online at http://www.image.ucar.edu/GSP/Software/Fields.]
10. Folland, C. K., and Coauthors, 2001: Observed climate variability and change. Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis, J. T. Houghton et al., Eds., Cambridge University Press, 99-182.
11. Fowler, H. J., and C. G. Kilsby, 2003: A regional frequency analysis of United Kingdom extreme rainfall from 1961 to 2000. Int. J. Climatol., 23, 1313-1334.
12. Frei, C., and C. Schäir, 2001: Detection probability of trends in rare events and application to heavy precipitation in the Alpine region. J. Climate, 14, 1568-1584.
13. Frei, C., and C. Schäir, D. Lüthi, and H. C. Davies, 1998: Heavy precipitation processes in a warmer climate. Geophys. Res. Lett., 25, 1431-1434.
14. Garcia, J. A., A. Serrano, and M. C. Gallego, 2002: A spectral analysis of Iberian monthly rainfall. Theor. Appl. Climatol., 71, 77-95.
15. Goodess, C. M., and P. D. Jones, 2002: Links between circulations and changes in the characteristics of Iberian rainfall. Int. J. Climatol., 22, 1593-1615.
16. Groisman, P. Y., R. W. Knight, and T. R. Karl, 2001: Heavy precipitation and high streamflow in the contiguous United States: Trends in the twentieth century. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 82, 219-246.
17. Guttman, N. B., 1993: The use of L-moments in the determination of regional precipitation climates. J. Climate, 6, 2309-2325.
18. Haylock, M., and N. Nicholls, 2000: Trends in extreme rainfall indices for an updated high quality data set for Australia, 1910-1998. Int. J. Climatol., 20, 1533-1541.
19. Karl, T. R., and R. W. Knight, 1998: Secular trends of precipitation, frequency, and intensity in the United States. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 79, 231-241.
20. Katz, R. W., M. B. Parlange, and P. Naveau, 2002: Statistics of extremes in hydrology. Adv. Water Resour., 25, 1287-1304.
21. Kharin, V. V., and F. W. Zwiers, 2000: Changes in extremes in an ensemble of transient climate simulations with a coupled atmosphere-ocean GCM. J. Climate, 13, 3760-3788.
22. Kharin, V. V., and F. W. Zwiers, 2005: Estimating extremes in transient climate change simulations. J. Climate, 18, 1156-1173.
23. Kiktev, D., D. M. H. Sexton, L. Alexander, and C. K. Folland, 2003: Comparison of modeled and observed trends in indices of daily climate extremes. J. Climate, 16, 3560-3571.
24. Klein Tank, A. M. G., and G. P. Konnen, 2003: Trends in indices of daily temperature and precipitation extremes in Europe, 1946-1999. J. Climate, 16, 3665-3680.
25. Kunkel, K. E., K. Andsager, and D. R. Easterling, 1999: Long-term trends in extreme precipitation events over the conterminous United States and Canada. J. Climate, 12, 2515-2527.
26. Lana, X., G. Fernandez Mills, and A. Burgueñio, 1995: Daily precipitation maxima in Catalonia (north-east Spain): Expected values and their spatial distribution. Int. J. Climatol., 15, 341-354.
27. Lana, X., C. Serra, and A. Burgueñto, 2003: Trends affecting pluvio metric indices at the Fabra observatory (Barcelona, NE Spain) from 1917 to 1999. Int. J. Climatol., 23, 315-332.
28. Lettenmaier, D. P., E. F. Wood, and J. R. Wallis, 1994: Hydroclimatological trends in the continental United States, 1949-88. J. Climate, 7, 586-607.
29. Li, Y., W. Cai, and E. Campbell, 2005: Statistical modeling of extreme rainfall in southwest Australia. J. Climate, 18, 852-863.
30. Livezey. R. E., and W. Y. Chen, 1983: Statistical field significance and its determination by Monte Carlo techniques. Mon. Wea. Rev., 111, 46-59.
31. López, L., 1988: Grazalema (Cadiz): Un Claro Ejemplo de Precipitación Orográfica. Instituto Nacional de Meteorología, Madrid, Spain, 60 pp.
32. Manton, M. J., and Coauthors, 2001: Trends in extreme daily rain-fall and temperature in Southeast Asia and the South Pacific: 1961-1998. Int. J. Climatol., 21, 269-284.
33. Mateos, V. L., J. A. García, A. Serrano, and M. C. Gallego, 2002: Transfer function modeling of the monthly accumulated rain-fall series over the Iberian Peninsula. Atmosfera, 15, 237-256.
34. Nychka, D., P. D. Haaland, M. A. O'Connell, and S. Ellner, 1998: FUNFITS: Data analysis and statistical tools for estimating functions. Case Studies in Environmental Statistics, D. Nychka, W. W. Piegorsh, and L. H. Cox, Eds., Lecture Notes in Statistics, No. 132, Springer, 159-179.
35. Osborn, T. J., M. Hulme, P. D. Jones, and T. A. Basnett, 2000: Observed trend in the daily intensity of United Kingdom precipitation. Int. J. Climatol., 20, 347-364.
36. Palmer, T., and J. Räisänen, 2002: Quantifying the risk of extreme seasonal precipitation events in a changing climate. Nature, 415, 512-514.
37. Development Core Team, 2006: R: A language and environment for statistical computing. R Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna, Austria. [Available online at http://www.R-project.org.]
38. Rodrigo, F. S., 2002: Changes in climate variability and seasonal rainfall extremes: A case estudy from San Fernando (Spain), 1821-2000. Theor. Appl. Climatol., 72, 193-207.
39. Rodríguez-Puebla, C., A. H. Encinas, S. Nieto, and J. Garmendia, 1998: Spatial and temporal patterns of annual precipitation variability over the Iberian peninsula. Int. J. Climatol., 18, 299-316.
40. Romero, R., J. A. Guijarro, C. Ramis, and S. Alonso, 1998: A 30-year (1964-1993) daily rainfall data base for the Spanish Mediterranean regions: First exploratory study. Int. J. Climatol., 18, 541-560.
41. Sen, P. K., 1968: Estimates of the regression coefficient based on Kendall's tau. J. Amer. Stat. Assoc., 63, 1379-1399.
42. Serrano, A., J. A. García, V. L. Mateos, M. L. Cancillo, and J. Garrido, 1999: Monthly modes of variation of precipitation over the Iberian Peninsula. J. Climate, 12, 2894-2919.
43. Smith, R. L., cited 1999: Trends in rainfall extremes. [Available online at http://www.stat.unc.edu/postscipt/rs/rx.pdf.]
44. Suppiah, R., and K. J. Hennessy, 1998: Trends in total rainfall, heavy rain events and the number of dry days in Australia, 1910-1990. Int J. Climatol., 18, 1141-1164.
45. Trenberth, K. E., 1998: Atmospheric moisture residence times and cycling: Implications for rainfall rates and climate change. Climatic Change, 39, 667-694.
46. Trenberth, K. E., 1999: Conceptual framework for changes of extremes of the hydrological cycle with climate change. Climatic Change, 42, 327-339.
47. Trigo, R. M., D. Pozo-Vázquez, T. J. Osborn, Y. Castro-Díez, S. R. Gámiz-Fortis, and M. J. Esteban-Parra, 2004: North Atlantic Oscillation influence on the precipitation river flow and water resources in the Iberian Peninsula. Int. J. Climatol., 24, 925-944.
48. von Storch, H., and F. W. Zwiers, 1999: Statistical Analysis in Climate Research. Cambridge University Press, 494 pp.
49. Wilks, D. S., 1995: Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences. Academic Press, 467 pp.
50. Wilks, D. S., 1997: Resampling hypothesis test for autocorrelated fields. J. Climate, 10, 65-82.
51. Zhang, X., F. W. Zwiers, and G. Li, 2004: Monte Carlo experiments on the detection of trends in extreme values. J. Climate, 17, 1945-1952.
52. Zwiers, F. W., 1987: Statistical considerations for climate experiments. Part II: Multivariate tests. J. Climate Appl. Meteor., 26, 477-487.
53. 2 doubling. J. Climate, 11, 2200-2222.