Cycles and shifts: 1,300 years of multi-decadal temperature variability in the Gulf of Alaska

Climate Dynamics

Volumn 28, Issue 4, 2007, Pages 425-440

  Wilson, Rob ^a,c   Wiles, Greg ^b   D'Arrigo, Rosanne ^c   Zweck, Chris ^d  

^a UNIVERSITY OF EDINBURGH   (United Kingdom)

^b 931 College Mall   (United States)

^c Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences   (United States)

^d UNIVERSITY OF ARIZONA   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

AIR TEMPERATURE; CLIMATE CHANGE; CLIMATE MODELING; CLIMATE VARIATION; PACIFIC DECADAL OSCILLATION; SPECTRAL ANALYSIS; TWENTIETH CENTURY;

GULF OF ALASKA; PACIFIC OCEAN; PACIFIC OCEAN (NORTH);

CONIFERALES;

EID: 33846313996     PISSN: 09307575     EISSN: 14320894     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-006-0194-9     Document Type: Article

References (68)

1. Allan R, Reason J, Lindesay J, Ansell T (2003) "Protracted" ENSO episodes and their impacts in the Indian Ocean region. Deep Sea Res 50B:2331-2347
2. Barclay DJ, Wiles GC, Calkin PE (1999) A 1119-year tree-ring-width chronology from western Prince William sound, southern Alaska. Holocene 9:79-84
3. Beamish RJ, Benson AJ, Sweeting RM, Neville CM (2004) Regimes and the history of the major fisheries off Canada's west coast. Prog Oceanogr 60:355-385
4. Biondi F, Gershunov A, Cayan DR (2001) North Pacific decadal climate variability since AD 1661. J Clim 14:5-10
5. Bond NA, Overland JE, Spillane M, Stabeno P (2003) Recent shifts in the state of the North Pacific. Geophys Res Lett 30(23), 2183, DOI 10.1029/ 2003GL018597
6. Box GEP, Tiao GC (1975) Intervention analysis with applications to economic and environmental problems. J Am Stat Assoc 70:70-79
7. Briffa KR, Jones PD, Bartholin TS, Eckstein D, Schweingruber FH, Karlen W, Zetterberg P, Eronen M (1992) Fennoscandian summers from AD 500: temperature changes on short and long timescales. Clim Dyn 7:111-119
8. Briffa K, Jones P, Schweingruber F, Osborn T (1998) Influence of volcanic eruptions on Northern Hemisphere summer temperature over the past 600 years. Nature 393:450-454
9. Büntgen U, Esper J, Frank DC, Nicolussi K, Schmidhalter M (2005) A 1052-year tree-ring proxy for alpine summer temperatures. Clim Dyn 25:141-153
10. Chavez FP, Ryan J, Llucha-Cota SE, Niquen M (2003) From anchovies to sardines and back: Multidecadal change in the Pacific Ocean. Science 299(5604):217-221
11. Cook E, Briffa K, Meko D, Graybill D, Funkhouser G (1995) The 'segment length curse' in long tree-ring chronology development for palaeoclimatic studies. Holocene 5:229-237
12. Cook ER, Kairiukstis LA (eds) (1990) Methods of dendrochronology: applications in the environmental sciences. Kluwer Academic, Dordrecht
13. Cook ER, Peters K (1997) Calculating unbiased tree-ring indices for the study of climate and environmental change. Holocene 7(3):361-370
14. Cook ER, Meko DM, Stockton CW (1997) A new assessment of possible solar and lunar forcing of the bidecadal drought rhythm in the western US. J Clim 10:1343-1356
15. Cook ER, Meko DM, Stahle DW, Cleaveland MK (1999) Drought reconstructions for the continental United States. J Clim 12(4):1145-1162
16. Cook E, D'Arrigo R, Mann ME (2002) A well-verified, multiproxy reconstruction of the winter North Atlantic oscillation index since AD 1400. J Clim 15:1754-1764
17. D'Arrigo R, Wilson R (2006) On the Asian expression of the PDO. Int J Climatol 26:1607-1617. DOI 10.1002/joc.1326
18. D'Arrigo R, Wiles G, Jacoby G, Villalba R (1999) North Pacific sea surface temperatures: Past variations inferred from tree rings. Geophys Res Lett 26:2757-2760
19. D'Arrigo R, Villalba R, Wiles G (2001) Tree-ring estimates of Pacific decadal climate variability. Clim Dyn 18:219-224
20. D'Arrigo R, Wilson R, Deser C, Wiles G, Cook E, Villalba R, Tudhope A, Cole J, Linsley B (2005) Tropical-North Pacific climate linkages over the past four centuries. J Clim 18 (24):5253-5265
21. D'Arrigo R, Wilson R, Jacoby G (2006) On the long-term context for late 20th century warming. J Geophys Res 111, D03103, DOI 10.1029/2005JD006352
22. Deser C, Phillips AS, Hurrell JW (2004) Pacific interdecadal climate variability: Linkages between the Tropics and North Pacific during boreal winter since 1900. J Clim 17:3109-3124
23. Ebbesmeyer CC, Cayan DR, McLain DR, Nichols FH, Peterson DH, Redmond KT (1991) 1976 step in the Pacific climate: Forty environmental changes between 1968-1975 and 1977-1984. In: Betancourt JL, Sharp VL (eds) Proceedings of the Seventh Annual Pacific Climate (PACLIM) Workshop, April 1990. California Department of Water Resources. Interagency ecological studies program technical report 26, 115-126
24. Esper J, Cook ER, Krusic PJ, Peters K, Schweingruber FH (2003) Tests of the RCS method for reserving low-frequency variability in long tree-ring chronologies. Tree-Ring Res 59:81-98
25. Evans MN, Cane MA, Schrag DP, Kaplan A, Linsley BK, Villalba R, Wellington GM (2001) Support for tropically-driven Pacific decadal variability based on paleoproxy evidence. Geophys Res Lett 28:3689-3692
26. Finney B, Gregory-Eaves I, Douglas M, Smol J (2002) Fisheries productivity in the northeastern Pacific Ocean over the past 2,200 years. Nature 416:729-733
27. Frank D, Esper J (2005) Temperature reconstructions and comparisons with instrumental data from a tree-ring network for the European Alps. Int J Climatol 25:1437-1454
28. Fritts HC (1976) Tree rings and climate. Academic, London
29. Garreaud R, Battisti D (1999) Interannual (ENSO) and interdecadal (ENSO-like) variability in the Southern Hemisphere tropospheric circulation. J Clim 12:2113-2122
30. Gedalof Z, Smith DJ (2001) Interdecadal climate variability and regime scale shifts in Pacific North America. Geophys Res Lett 28:1515-1518
31. Gedalof Z, Mantua NJ, Peterson DL (2002) A multi-century perspective of variability in the Pacific Decadal oscillation: New insights from tree rings and coral. Geophys Res Lett 29: DOI 10.1029/2002GL015824
32. Grissino-Mayer HD, Holmes RL, Fritts HC (1997) The International Tree-Ring Data Bank Program Library, version 2.1, Users Manual, Tucson, Arizona
33. Hu FS, Ito E, Brown T, Curry B, Engstrom D (2001) Pronounced climatic variations in Alaska during the last two millennia. Proc Natl Acad Sci 98:10552-10556
34. Hughes MK, Schweingruber FH, Cartwright D, Kelly PM (1984) July-August temperature at Edinburgh between 1721 and 1975 from tree-ring density and width data. Nature 308:341-344
35. Jones PD, Hulme M (1996) Calculating regional climatic time series for temperature and precipitation: Methods and illustrations. Int J Climatol 16:361-377
36. Jones PD, New M, Parker DE, Martin S, Rigor IG (1999) Surface air temperature and its variations over the last 150 years. Rev Geophys 37:173-199
37. Labeyrie L, Cole J, Alverson K, Stocker T (2003) The history of climate dynamics. Chapter 3. Paleoclimate, Global change and the future. Alverson K, Bradley R, Pederson T (eds) Springer, Berlin Heidelberg New York, pp 221
38. Linsley BK, Wellington GM, Schrag DP (2000) Decadal sea surface temperature variability in the sub-tropical South Pacific from 1726 to 1997 AD. Science 290:1145-1148
39. MacDonald GM, Case RA (2005) Variations in the Pacific Oscillation over the past millennium. Geophys Res Lett 32, L08703, DOI 10.1029/ 2005GL022478
40. Mann ME, Lees J (1996) Robust estimation of background noise and signal detection in climatic time series. Clim Change 33:409-45
41. Mantua N, Hare S (2002) The Pacific decadal oscillation. J Oceanogr 58:35-44
42. Mantua N, Hare S, Zhang Y, Wallace J, Francis R (1997) A Pacific interdecadal oscillation with impacts on salmon production. Bull Am Met Soc 58:1069-1079
43. Meko DM (1997) Dendroclimatic reconstruction with time varying subsets of tree indices. J Clim 10:687-696
44. Minobe S (1997) A 50-70 year climatic oscillation over the North Pacific and North America. Geophys Res Lett 24:683-686
45. Minobe S (1999) Resonance in bidecadal and pentadecadal climate oscillations over the North Pacific: Role in climatic regime shifts. Geophys Res Lett 26:855-858
46. Minobe S (2000) Spatio-temporal structure of the pentadecadal variability over the North Pacific. Prog Oceanogr 47:381-408
47. Mitchell VL (1967) An investigation of certain aspects of tree growth rates in relation to climate in the central Canadian boreal forest. Technical report no. 33. University of Wisconsin, Department of Meteorology, Wisconsin, pp 62
48. Nakamura H, Lin G, Yamagata T (1997) Decadal climate variability in the North Pacific during the recent decades. Bull Am Met Soc 78:2215-2225
49. Osborn TJ, Briffa KB, Jones PD (1997) Adjusting variance for sample size in tree-ring chronologies and other regional mean timeseries. Dendrochronologia 15:89-99
50. Peterson TC, Vose RS (1997) An overview of the Global Historical Climatology Network temperature data base. Bull Am Met Soc 78:2837-2849
51. Rayner NA, Parker DE, Horton EB, Folland CK, Alexander LV, Rowell DP, Kent EC, Kaplan A (2003) Globally complete analyses of sea surface temperature, sea ice and night marine air temperature, 1871-2000. J Geophys Res 108, 4407, DOI 10.1029/2002JD002670
52. Rodionov SN (2004) A sequential algorithm for testing climate regime shifts. Geophys Res Lett 31, DOI 10.1029/2004GL019448
53. Royer TC (1993) High latitude oceanic variability associated with the 18.6 year nodal tide. J Geophys Res 98:4639-4644
54. Richman MB (1986) Rotation of principal components. J Clim 6:293-335
55. Shen C, Wang WC, Gong W, Hao Z (2006) A Pacific decadal oscillation record since 1470 AD reconstructed from proxy data of summer rainfall over eastern China. Geophys Res Lett 33:L03702, DOI 10.1029/2005GLO24804
56. Stuiver M, Braziunas TF (1989) Atmospheric C-14 and century-scale solar oscillations. Nature 338:405-408
57. Trenberth K, Hurrell J (1994) Decadal atmospheric-ocean variations in the Pacific. Clim Dyn 9:303-319
58. Vautard R, Ghil M (1989) Singular spectrum analysis in nonlinear dynamics with applications to paleoclimatic time series. Physica D 35:395-424
59. Verdon DC, Franks SW (2006) Long-term behaviour of ENSO: Interactions with the PDO over the past 400 years inferred from paleoclimate records. Geophys Res Lett 33:L06712, DOI 10.1029/2005GL025052
60. Villalba R, D'Arrigo R, Cook ER, Jacoby GC, Wiles GC (2001) Decadal-scale climatic variability along the extratropical western coast of the Americas: Evidence from tree-ring records. In: Markgraf V (ed) Interhemispheric climate linkages. Academic, New York, pp 155-172
61. Wigley TML, Briffa KR, Jones PD (1984) On the average of correlated time series, with applications in dendroclimatology and hydrometeorology. J Clim App Met 23:201-213
62. Wiles G, D'Arrigo R, Jacoby G (1998) Gulf of Alaska atmosphere-ocean variability over recent centuries inferred from coastal tree-ring records. Clim Change 38:289-306
63. Wiles G, D'Arrigo R, Villalba R, Calkin P, Barclay D (2004) Century-scale solar variability and Alaskan temperature change over the past millennium. Geophys Res Lett 31:L15203, DOI 10.1029/2004GL020050
64. Wiles G, Brady K, D'Arrigo R, Calkin P, Wilson R (in preparation). A 1300 year-long tree-ring record from Columbia Bay, Southern Alaska
65. Wilson JG, Overland JE (1987) Meteorology. In: Hood DW, Zimmerman ST (eds) The Gulf of Alaska: Physical environment and biological resources. Nat Ocean Atmos Adm US Department of Commerce, pp 31-56
66. Wilson RJS, Luckman BH, Esper J (2005) A 500-year dendroclimatic reconstruction of spring/summer precipitation from the lower Bavarian Forest region, Germany. Int J Climatol 25:611-630
67. Yasuda I, Osafune S, Tatebe H (2006) Possible explanation linking 18.6-year period nodal tidal cycle with bi-decadal variations of ocean and climate in the North Pacific. Geophys Res Lett 33, L08606, DOI 10.1029/2005GL025237
68. Zhang Y, Norris J, Wallace J (1998) Seasonality of large-scale atmosphere-ocean interaction over the North Pacific. J Clim 11:2473-2481