European winter precipitation extremes and large-scale circulation: A coupled model and its scenarios

Theoretical and Applied Climatology

Volumn 87, Issue 1-4, 2007, Pages 85-102

  Santos, J A ^a,c   Corte Real, J ^a,b   Ulbrich, U ^d   Palutikof, J ^e  

^a UNIVERSITY OF ÉVORA   (Portugal)

^b UNIVERSITY OF LISBON   (Portugal)

^c UNIVERSITY OF TRÁS OS MONTES AND ALTO DOURO   (Portugal)

^d FREIE UNIVERSITÄT BERLIN   (Germany)

^e MET OFFICE   (United Kingdom)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

ATMOSPHERE-OCEAN COUPLING; ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION; CLIMATE FORCING; DECOMPOSITION ANALYSIS; NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION; PRECIPITATION (CLIMATOLOGY); REGIONAL CLIMATE; WINTER;

EURASIA; EUROPE; MEDITERRANEAN SEA;

EID: 33750474090     PISSN: 0177798X     EISSN: 14344483     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1007/s00704-005-0224-2     Document Type: Article

References (46)

1. TP Barnett RW Preisendorfer 1987 Origins and levels of monthly and seasonal forecast skill for United States surface air temperatures determined by canonical correlation analysis Mon Wea Rev 115 1825-1850 10.1175/1520-0493(1987)115<1825:OALOMA>2.0.CO;2
2. AG Barnston RE Livezey 1987 Classification seasonality and persistence of low-frequency atmospheric circulation patterns Mon Wea Rev 115 1083-1126 10.1175/1520-0493(1987)115<1083:CSAPOL>2.0.CO;2
3. MJ Booij 2002 Extreme daily precipitation in Western Europe with climate change at appropriate spatial scales Int J Climatol 22 69-85 10.1002/ joc.715
4. CS Bretherton S Christopher C Smith JM Wallace 1992 An intercomparison of methods for finding coupled patterns in climate data J Climate 5 541-560 10.1175/1520-0442(1992)005<0541:AIOMFF>2.0.CO;2
5. JM Corte-Real X Wang X Zhang 1995 Modes of variability in the northern hemisphere's mid tropospheric large-scale circulation Theor Appl Climatol 50 133-146 10.1007/BF00866112
6. A Dünkeloh J Jacobeit 2003 Circulation dynamics of Mediterranean precipitation variability Int J Climatol 23 1843-1866 10.1002/joc.973
7. J Fernandez J Saenz E Zorita 2003 Analysis of wintertime atmospheric moisture transport and its variability over southern Europe in the NCEP reanalysis Climate Res 23 195-215
8. Fowler HJ, Kilsby CG (2003) Implications of changes in seasonal and annual extreme rainfall. Geophys Res Lett 30: Art. no. 1720
9. JF González-Rouco H Heyen E Zorita E Valero 2000 Agreement between observed precipitation trends and climate change simulations in the Southwest of Europe J Climate 13 3057-3065 10.1175/ 1520-0442(2000)013<3057:ABORTA>2.0.CO;2
10. MR Haylock CM Goodess 2004 Interannual variability of European extreme winter rainfall and links with mean large-scale circulation Int J Climatol 24 759-776 10.1002/joc.1033
11. M Hulme TJ Osborn TC Johns 1998 Precipitation sensitivity to global warming: Comparison of observations with HadCM2 simulations Geophys Res Lett 25 3379-3382 10.1029/98GL02562
12. JW Hurrell 1996 Influence of variations in extratropical wintertime teleconnections on northern hemisphere temperatures Geophys Res Lett 23 665-668 10.1029/96GL00459
13. JW Hurrell van Loon 1997 Decadal variations in climate associated with the North Atlantic oscillation Climate Change 36 301-326 10.1023/ A:1005314315270
14. JW Hurrell Y Kushnir M Visbeck 2001 The North Atlantic Oscillation Science 291 603-605 10.1126/science.1058761
15. IPCC 2001 Climate change: The scientific basis Cambridge University Press UK
16. TC Johns JM Gregory CE Johnson A Jones JA Lowe JFB Mitchell DL Roberts DMH Sexton DS Stevenson SFB Tett MJ Woodage 2003 Anthropogenic climate change for 1860 to 2100 simulated with the HadCM3 model under updated emission scenarios Climate Dynamics 20 583-612
17. PD Jones T Jonson D Wheeler 1997 Extension to the North Atlantic Oscillation using early instrumental pressure observations from Gibraltar and South-west Iceland Int J Climatol 17 1433-1450 10.1002/ (SICI)1097-0088(19971115)17:13<1433::AID-JOC203>3.0.CO;2-P
18. E Kalnay M Kanamitsu R Kistler W Collins D Deaven L Gandin M Iredell S Saha G White J Woollen Y Zhu M Chelliah W Ebisuzaki W Higgins J Janowiak KC Mo C Ropelewski J Wang A Leetmaa R Reynolds R Jenne D Joseph 1996 The NCEP/NCAR 40-year reanalysis project Bull Amer Meteor Soc 77 437-471 10.1175/1520-0477(1996)077<0437:TNYRP>2.0.CO;2
19. D Kiktev DMH Sexton L Alexander CK Folland 2003 Comparison of modelled and observed trends in indices of daily climate extremes J Climate 16 3560-3571 10.1175/1520-0442(2003)016<3560:COMAOT>2.0.CO;2
20. E Kjellstrom 2004 Recent and future signatures of climate change in Europe Ambio 33 193-198
21. B Lloyd-Hughes MA Saunders 2002 A drought climatology for Europe Int J Climatol 22 1571-1592 10.1002/joc.846
22. M Mudelsee M Borngen G Tetzlaff U Grunewald 2003 No upward trends in the occurrence of extreme floods in central Europe Nature 425 166-169 10.1038/nature01928
23. J Murphy 1999 An evaluation of statistical and dynamical techniques for downscaling local climate Int J Climatol 12 2256-2284 10.1175/ 1520-0442(1999)012<2256:AEOSAD>2.0.CO;2
24. Nakicenovic N, and 27 co-authors (2000) IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios. Cambridge University Press: Cambridge, UK
25. M New M Todd M Hulme P Jones 2001 Precipitation measurements and trends in the twentieth century Int J Climatol 21 1899-1922 10.1002/joc.680
26. TJ Osborn M Hulme 1997 Development of a relationship between station and grid-box rainday frequencies for climate model evaluation J Climate 10 1885-1908 10.1175/1520-0442(1997)010<1885:DOARBS>2.0.CO;2
27. JP Peixoto A Oort 1992 Physics of climate American Institute of Physics New York, USA
28. BJ Qian H Xu JM Corte-Real 2000a Is the North Atlantic Oscillation the most important atmospheric pattern for precipitation in Europe? J Geophys Res 105 901-910 10.1029/2000JD900102
29. BJ Qian H Xu JM Corte-Real 2000b Spatial-temporal structures of the quasi-periodic oscillations in precipitation over Europe Int J Climatol 20 1583-1598 10.1002/ 1097-0088(20001115)20:13<1583::AID-JOC560>3.0.CO;2-Y
30. PA Reid PD Jones O Brown CM Goodess TD Davies 2001 Assessments of the reliability of NCEP circulation data and relationships with surface climate by direct comparisons with station based data Climate Res 17 247-261
31. JC Rogers 1997 North Atlantic storm track variability and its association to the North Atlantic oscillation and climate variability of Northern Europe J Climate 10 1635-1647 10.1175/ 1520-0442(1997)010<1635:NASTVA>2.0.CO;2
32. VA Semenov L Bengtsson 2002 Secular trends in daily precipitation characteristics: Greenhouse gas simulation with a coupled AOGCM Climate Dynamics 19 123-140 10.1007/s00382-001-0218-4
33. Sneyers R (1975) Sur L'analyse statistique des séries d'observation. World Meteorological Organization, Technical note no. 143. Geneva, Switzerland
34. AMGK Tank JB Wijngaard GP Konnen R Bohm G Demaree A Gocheva M Mileta S Pashiardis L Hejkrlik C Kern-Hansen R Heino P Bessemoulin G Muller-Westermeier M Tzanakou S Szalai T Palsdottir D Fitzgerald S Rubin M Capaldo M Maugeri A Leitass A Bukantis R Aberfeld AFV Van Engelen E Forland M Mietus F Coelho C Mares V Razuvaev E Nieplova T Cegnar JA Lopez B Dahlstrom A Moberg W Kirchhofer A Ceylan O Pachaliuk LV Alexander P Petrovic 2002 Daily dataset of 20th-century surface air temperature and precipitation series for the European Climate Assessment Int J Climatol 22 1441-1453 10.1002/joc.773
35. AMGK Tank GP Konnen 2003 Trends in indices of daily temperature and precipitation extremes in Europe, 1946-99 J Climate 16 3665-3680 10.1175/ 1520-0442(2003)016<3665:TIIODT>2.0.CO;2
36. RM Trigo TJ Osborn JM Corte-Real 2002 The North Atlantic Oscillation influence on Europe climate impacts and associated physical mechanisms Climate Res 20 9-17
37. U Ulbrich M Christoph JG Pinto JM Corte-Real 1999 Dependence of winter precipitation over portugal on NAO and baroclinic wave activity Int J Climatol 19 379-390 10.1002/ (SICI)1097-0088(19990330)19:4<379::AID-JOC357>3.0.CO;2-8
38. CB Uvo 2003 Analysis and regionalization of northern European winter precipitation based on its relationship with the North Atlantic oscillation Int J Climatol 23 1185-1194 10.1002/joc.930
39. von Storch F Zwiers 1999 Statistical analysis in climate research Cambridge University Press Cambridge, UK
40. JM Wallace DS Gutzler 1981 Teleconnections in the geopotential height field during the northern hemisphere winter Mon Wea Rev 109 784-812 10.1175/1520-0493(1981)109<0784:TITGHF>2.0.CO;2
41. JM Wallace Y Zhang KH Lau 1993 Structure and seasonality of interannual and interdecadal variability of the geopotential height and temperature fields in the northern hemisphere troposphere J Climate 6 2063-2082 10.1175/1520-0442(1993)006<2063:SASOIA>2.0.CO;2
42. Watterson IG, Dix MR (2003) Simulated changes due to global warming in daily precipitation means and extremes and their interpretation using the gamma distribution. J Geophys Res - Atmos 108: Art. no. 4379
43. J Wibig 1999 Precipitation in Europe in relation to circulation patterns at the 500 hPa level Int J Climatol 19 253-269 10.1002/ (SICI)1097-0088(19990315)19:3<253::AID-JOC366>3.0.CO;2-0
44. JB Wijngaard KAMG Tank GP Können 2003 Homogeneity of the 20th century European daily temperature and precipitation series Int J Climatol 23 679-692 10.1002/joc.906
45. RL Wilby TML Wigley 2000 Precipitation predictors for downscaling observed and general circulation model relationships Int J Climatol 20 641-661 10.1002/ (SICI)1097-0088(200005)20:6<641::AID-JOC501>3.0.CO;2-1
46. WMO (1996) Cimatological Normals (CLINO) for the period 1961-1990. World Meteorological Organization Doc. WMO/OMM - No. 847, Geneva, Switzerland