Refinement of accident prediction models for spanish national network

Transportation Research Record

Volumn , Issue 1950, 2006, Pages 65-72

  Pardillo Mayora, José M ^a   Manzo, Rafael Bojórquez ^a   Orive, Alberto Camarero ^a  

^a UNIVERSIDAD POLITÉCNICA DE MADRID   (Spain)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

CALIBRATION; FORECASTING; MATHEMATICAL MODELS; PROJECT MANAGEMENT; RANDOM PROCESSES; ROADS AND STREETS; TRANSPORTATION ROUTES;

ACCIDENT PREDICTION MODELS; ANNUAL AVERAGE DAILY TRAFFIC (AADT); BINOMIAL ACCIDENT PREDICTION; MODEL FITTING PROCESS;

ACCIDENT PREVENTION;

EID: 33749633454     PISSN: 03611981     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: None     Document Type: Conference Paper

References (28)

1. Satterhwaite, S. A Survey of Research into Relationships Between Traffic Accidents and Traffic Volumes. Supplementary Report 692. Transport Research Laboratory, Crowthome, Berkshire, United Kingdom, 1981.
2. Jovanis, P. P., and H.-L. Chang. Modeling the Relationship of Accidents to Miles Traveled. In Transportation Research Record 1068, TRB, National Research Council, Washington, D.C., 1986, pp. 42-51.
3. Joshua, S., and N. Garber. Estimating Truck Accident Rate and Involvements Using Linear and Poisson Regression Models. Transportation Planning and Technology, Vol. 15, No. 1, 1990, pp. 41-58.
4. Maycock, G., and R. Hall. Accidents at 4-Arm Roundabouts. Laboratory Report LR1120. Transport Research Laboratory, Crowthorne, Berkshire, United Kingdom, 1984.
5. Maher, M., and I. Summersgill. A Comprehensive Methodology for the Fitting of Predictive Accident Models. Accident Analysis and Prevention, Vol. 8, No. 3, 1996, pp. 281-289.
6. Miaou, S.-P., P. S. Hu, T. Wright, A. K. Rathi, and S. C. Davis. Relationship Between Truck Accidents and Highway Geometric Design: A Poisson Regression Approach. In Transportation Research Record 1376, TRB, National Research Council, Washington, D.C., 1992, pp. 10-18.
7. Miaou, S., and H. Lum. Modeling Vehicle Accidents and Highway Geometric Design Relationships. Accident Analysis and Prevention, Vol. 25, No. 6, 1993, pp. 689-709.
8. Miaou, S., P. Hu, T. Wright, S. Davis, and A. Rathi. Development of Relationship Between Truck Accident and Geometric Design: Phase 1. Report FHWA-RD-91-124. FHWA, U.S. Department of Transportation, 1993.
9. Miaou, S. The Relationship Between Truck Accidents and Geometric Design of Road Sections: Poisson Versus Negative Binomial Regressions. Accident Analysis and Prevention, Vol. 26, No. 4, 1994, pp. 471-482.
10. Shankar, V., F. Mannering, and W. Barfield. Effect of Roadway Geometrics and Environmental Factors on Rural Freeway Accident Frequencies. Accident Analysis and Prevention, Vol. 27, No. 3, 1995, pp. 371-389.
11. Poch, M., and F. Mannering. Negative Binomial Analysis of Intersection Accident Frequencies. Journal of Transportation Engineering. Vol. 122, No. 2, 1996, pp. 105-113.
12. Ivan, J. N., and P. J. O'Mara. Prediction of Traffic Accident Rates Using Poisson Regression. Presented at 76th Annual Meeting of the Transportation Research Board, Washington, D.C., 1997.
13. Fridstrøm, L., J. Ifver, S. Ingebrigtsen, R. Kulmala, and L. K. Thomsen. Measuring the Contribution of Randomness, Exposure, Weather, and Daylight to the Variation in Road Accident Counts. Accident Analysis and Prevention, Vol. 27, No. 1, 1995, pp. 1-20.
14. Vogt, A., and J. Bared. Accident Models for Two-Lane Rural Segments and Intersections. In Transportation Research Record 1635, TRB, National Research Council, Washington, D.C., 1998, pp. 18-29.
15. Vogt, A., and J. Bared. Accident Models for Two-Lane Rural Roads: Segments and Intersections. Report FHWA-RD-98-133. FHWA, U.S. Department of Transportation, 1998.
16. Vogt, A. Crash Models for Rural Intersections: Four-Lane by Two-Lane Stop-Controlled and Two-Lane by Two-Lane Signalized, Report FHWA-RD-99-128. FHWA, U.S. Department of Transportation, 1999.
17. Harwood, D., F. Council, E. Hauer, W. Hughes, and A. Vogt. Prediction of the Expected Safety Performance of Rural Two-Lane Highways. Report FHWA-RD-99-207. FHWA, U.S. Department of Transportation, 2000.
18. Hauer, E. Observational Before-After Studies in Road Safety. Pergamon, Oxford, United Kingdom, 1997.
19. Hauer, E. Statistical Road Safety Modeling. In Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, No. 1897. Transportation Research Board of the National Academies. Washington. D.C., 2004, pp. 81-87.
20. Lord, D., and B. N. Persaud. Accident Prediction Models With and Without Trend: Application of the Generalized Estimating Equations Procedure. In Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, No. 1717, TRB, National Research Council, Washington, D.C., 2000, pp. 102-108.
21. Hauer, E., F. M. Council, and Y. Mohammedshah. Safety Models for Urban Four-Lane Undivided Road Segments. In Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, No. 1897, Transportation Research Board of the National Academies, Washington, D.C., 2004, pp. 96-105.
22. Pardillo Mayora, J., and R. Llamas Rubio. Posibilidades de aplicacion de modelos de regresión multivariante en un sistema avanzado de análisis de la información de seguridad vial (in Spanish). Report for the Spanish Road Directorate, Ministry of Infrastructures, Universidad Politecnica de Madrid, Spain, 2001.
23. Pardillo Mayora, J., and R. Llamas Rubio. Relevant Variables for Crash Rate Prediction in Spain's Two-Lane Rural Roads, Presented at 82nd Annual Meeting of the Transportation Research Board, Washington, D.C., 2003.
24. Plackett, R. L. The Analysis of Categorical Data. Griffin, London, 1981.
25. Garber, N. J., and A. A. Ehrhart. Effect of Speed, Flow, and Geometric Characteristics on Crash Frequency for Two-Lane Highways. In Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, No. 1717, TRB, National Research Council, Washington, D.C., 2000, pp. 76-83.
26. 2 to Evaluate Goodness of Fit of Accident Prediction Models. In Transportation Research Record 1542, TRB, National Research Council, Washington. D.C., 1996, pp. 6-13.
27. Cameron, C., and F. Windmeijer. R-Squared Measures for Count Data Regression Models with Applications to Health Care Utilization. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 1996, pp. 209-220.
28. Cameron, A. C., and P. K. Trivedi. Regression Analysis of Count Data. Econometric Society Monograph 30. Cambridge University Press, New York, 1998.