Stabilising Iraq's water supply: What the Euphrates and Tigris rivers can learn from the Indus

Third World Quarterly

Volumn 27, Issue 6, 2006, Pages 1041-1058

  Zawahri, Neda A ^a  

^a NONE

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

INTERNATIONAL AGREEMENT; WATER MANAGEMENT; WATER QUALITY; WATER SUPPLY;

ASIA; EUPHRATES RIVER; EURASIA; IRAQ; MIDDLE EAST; TIGRIS RIVER;

EID: 33749050216     PISSN: 01436597     EISSN: 13602241     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1080/01436590600850467     Document Type: Article

References (121)

1. Peter Beaumont, 'Iraq: Environmental, resource and development issues', in Derek Hopwood, Habib Ishow & Thomas Koszinowski (eds), Iraq: Power and Society, Ithaca, NY: Ithaca Press, 1993, pp 117-141; and
2. Fahmi K Bishay, 'Towards sustainable agricultural development in Iraq', Rome: Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations, 2003.
3. Muhammad Bid-iw-i al-Shammari-I, al-Ta'tish al-Siy-as-I, Baghdad: Dar al-Shu'-un al-Thaq-af-iyah al-'Ammal, 2001, p 37.
4. Little is known about Iran's activities and policy towards the Tigris tributaries it shares with Iraq. As a result, this article focuses only on Turkey, Syria and Iraq. But, when possible, data on Iran are included.
5. Senior officials within the US government have noted this potential danger. See 'Give rebuilding lower priority in future wars', New York Times, 8 April 2006.
6. Robert O Keohane, After Hegemony, Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1984; and
7. Thomas Bernauer, 'Managing international rivers', in Oran R Young (ed), Global Governance, Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 1997, pp 155-193.
8. Asit K Biswas, 'Management of international waters: Opportunities and constraints', Water Resources Development, 15 (4), 1999, pp 429-221; and
9. Mikiyasu Nakayama, 'Successes and failures of international organizations in dealing with international waters', Water Resources Development, 13 (3), 1997, pp 367-382.
10. Institutions are 'persistent and connected sets of rules (formal and informal) that prescribe behavioral rules, constrain activity, and shape expectations'. Robert O Keohane, International Institutions and State Power, Boulder, CO: Westview Press, 1989, p 3.
11. Bernauer, 'Managing international rivers';
12. Frank Marty, Managing International Rivers, Berlin: Peter Lang, 2001; and
13. Mark F Giordano, Meredith A Giordano & Aaron Wolf, 'International resource confict and mitigation', Journal of Peace Research, 42 (1), 2005, pp 47-65.
14. It is unclear what Iran's policy is towards reaching an agreement.
15. Frederick W Frey, 'The political context of conflict and cooperation over international river basins', Water International, 18, 1993, pp 54-68;
16. Peter H Gleick, 'Water and conflict: Fresh water resources and international security', International Security, 18 (1), 1993, pp 79-112;
17. Abraham M Hirsch, 'From the Indus to the Jordan: Characteristics of Middle East international river disputes', Political Science Quarterly, 71 (2), 1956, pp 203-322;
18. Mariam Lowi, Water and Power: The Politics of a Scarce Resource in the Jordan River Basin, New York: Cambridge University Press, 1993;
19. Robert Mandel, 'Sources of international river basin disputes', Conflict Quarterly, 12 (4), 1992, pp 25-56; and
20. Aaron T Wolf, Hydropolitics along the Jordan River, Tokyo: United Nations University Press, 1995.
21. David Collier, 'The comparative method', in Ada W Finifter (ed), Political Science: The State of the Discipline II, Washington, DC: American Political Science Association, 1993, pp 105-119.
22. GW Downs, DM Rocke & PN Barsoom, 'Is the good news about compliance good news about cooperation?', International Organization, 50 (3), 1996, p 380.
23. Jeffrey W Jacobs, 'The Mekong River Commission: Transboundary water resources planning and regional security', The Geographical Journal, 168 (4), 2002, p 358.
24. Keohane, After Hegemony, p 53.
25. Since states perceive hydrological data as part of national security, it is difficult to locate accurate data. Therefore, the article relies on estimates and, when possible, it provides ranges.
26. From the con.uence of the Euphrates and Tigris rivers up to the Persian Gulf the river is known as Shatt al-Arab.
27. This 10% is a disputed figure, since some of the water feeding Syrian tributaries comes from Turkish aquifers. Recently Turkey increased its consumption from these aquifers and consequently the springs feeding the Euphrates tributaries within Syria are drying up. Author's interview with Syrian government official, Hama, 25 June 2001. The existence of these aquifers along the international border has led some to argue that Turkey contributes about 98% to the Euphrates. See Dogan Altinbilek, 'Development and management of the Euphrates-Tigris basin', Water Resources Development, 20 (1), 2004, p 19.
28. Iran's contribution is between 5.9% and 16%, while the rest comes from Iraq. Altinbilek, 'Development and management of the Euphrates-Tigris basin', p 19; and
29. Nurit Kliot, Water Resources and Conflict in the Middle East, London: Routledge, 2002, p 115. The long-term average annual natural flow of the Euphrates is between 29 and 35 billion cubic meters (bcm) and of the Tigris is between 49 and 50 bcm.
30. K'smat al-Me'a fe al-Kanun al-Dawli, al-Gamhurri'a al-Irakia, 1991, p 8.
31. Altinbilek, 'Development and management of the Euphrates-Tigris basin'.
32. John Kolars & William A Mitchell, The Euphrates River and the Southeast Anatolia Development Project, Carbondale, IL: Southern Illinois University Press, 1991, ch 1.
33. Altinbilek, 'Development and management of the Euphrates-Tigris basin', p 24.
34. Servet Mutlu, 'The Southeastern Anatolia Project (GAP) of Turkey', Orient, 37, 1996, pp 59-86.
35. Mehmet Tomanbay, 'Turkey's approach to utilization of the Euphrates and Tigris rivers', Arab Studies Quarterly, 22 (2), 2000, pp 79-100.
36. All data are from 2000 and were provided to the author by a highly placed Syrian government official. Author's interview with Syrian government official, Damascus, 8 and 12 June 2001.
37. 'The Study on Water Resources Development in the Northwestern and Central Basins in the Syrian Arab Republic', Japan International Cooperation Agency, January 2000, p I-5.
38. Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia, Implications of Groundwater Rehabilitation on Water Resources Protection and Conservation, New York: United Nations, 2001.
39. Author's interview with a Syrian government official, Damascus, 8 and 12 June 2001.
40. Adai Hardan, 'Sharing the Euphrates: Iraq', Earth and Exploration, 9, 1993, p 73.
41. Kliot, Water Resources and Conflict in the Middle East, p 143.
42. Bishay, 'Towards sustainable agricultural development in Iraq', p 5.
43. Hilal Elver, Peaceful Uses of International Rivers, Ardsley, NY: Transnational Publishers, 2002, p 359.
44. al-Shammari-I, al-Ta'tish al-Siy-as-I, p 37. The Iraqi Ministry of Irrigation estimates the domestic water consumption at 74 bcm.
45. United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia, Implications of Groundwater Rehabilitation on Water Resources Protection and Conservation.
46. al-Shammari-I, al-Ta'tish al-Siy-as-I, p 39.
47. Bishay, Water Resources and Conflict in the Middle East, p 6. In 1992 agriculture contributed 35% to Iraq's GDP but this decreased to 29% in 2000. See Mahmood Ahmad, 'Agricultural policy issues and challenges in Iraq: Short- and medium-term options', in Kamil A Mahdi (ed), Iraq's Economic Predicament, New York: Ithaca Press, 2002, pp 169-199.
48. Some suggest that the quality of water has already deteriorated. See al-Shammari-I, al-Ta'tish al-Siyas-I, ch 3.
49. International Rivers and Lakes, Newsletter of the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, 34, 2000, pp 1-11. The 12% excludes Iran, but we know it has increased consumption of the Tigris tributaries. See al-Shammari-I, al-Ta'tish al-Siy-as-I, ch 3.
50. The US Agency for International Development demanded the release of 350 m3/sec below the Keban dam during its impounding. Similarly, the World Bank asked for 500 m3/sec during the impounding of the Karakaya dam.
51. Author's interview with Syrian government official, Damascus, 12 June 2001.
52. Quoted in 'Thirsting for war', BBC News, 5 October 2000, at http://www.news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/programmes/correspondent/958132.stm.
53. See, for example, notes from the JTC meeting, 13-20 March 1989.
54. Waltina Scheumann, 'Conflicts on the Euphrates: An analysis of water and non-water issues', in Waltina Scheumann & Manuel Schiffler (eds), Water in the Middle East, Berlin: Springer, 1998, p 127.
55. Munther Ka'ddam, al-A'men al-Ma'e al-Suri, Damascus: Manshurat Wezarat al-Thaqafa, 2000, ch 4.
56. FI Qubain, The Reconstruction of Iraq: 1950-1957, London: Atlantic Books, Stevens & Sons, 1960.
57. The wording in this text comes from the o.cial copy of the protocol provided to the author by a Syrian government official. For the official Turkish copy, see TC Resmi Gazete 10 Aralik 1987-Sayi: 19660. Since the protocol also covered bilateral security issues, that portion of the protocol remains classified and therefore the Turkish parliament did not ratify the protocol.
58. Keohane, After Hegemony, p 54.
59. Data are from the JTC meeting notes, 7-12 March 1990 and author's interview with Turkish government official, Ankara, 20 August 2001.
60. JTC meeting notes, 7-12 March 1990.
61. Author interviews with Professor Gun Kut, Bogazici University, Istanbul, 20 August 2001 and Professor Ali Ihsan Bagis, Hacettepe University, Ankara, 9 August 2001.
62. Author's interview with Ozden Bilen, Former Director General of DSI, Burhaniye, 18 August 2001.
63. Author's interview with Ilker Ozel, Deputy Director General of DSI, Ankara, 6 August 2001.
64. Author interviews with Turkish government official, Ankara, 17 August 2001 and Syrian government official, Damascus, 12 June 2001.
65. Author's interview with Dogan Altinbilek, Director General of DSI, Ankara, 7 August 2001.
66. Author's interview with Turkish government officials, Ankara, 17 August 2001.
67. Author's interview with Caner Koncagul, Ministry of Foreign A.airs, Ankara, 17 August 2001.
68. Author's interview with a Syrian government official, Damascus, 19 June 2001.
69. These are the Keban, Karakaya, Ataturk, Birecik, Karkamis, Batman, Devegecidi, Cag-cag, Dicle, Goksu and Kralkizi dams.
70. These are the Tabqa, Ba'tha and Tashreen dams.
71. Depending on the project, a river can be diverted or stopped for from a few days to a couple of months.
72. About 35 miles from the Syrian border, Turkey has the Birecik dam, which can release 20 000 m3/sec of water downstream. About 40 miles from the Iraqi border, Turkey is constructing a dam with the capacity to store 10 bcm.
73. Ozden Bilen, Turkey and Water Issues in the Middle East, Ankara: Southeastern Anatolia Project Regional Development Administration, 1997, pp 111-113.
74. Thomas Naff & Ruth C Matson, Water in the Middle East, Boulder, CO: Westview Press, 1984, p 94.
75. John Waterbury, 'Dynamics of basin-wide cooperation in the utilization of the Euphrates', paper presented at the conference 'Economic Development of Syria: Problems, Progress, and Prospects', Damascus, Syria, 6-7 January, 1990. p 94.
76. Scheumann, 'Conflicts on the Euphrates';
77. Robert Olson, Turkey's Relations with Iran, Syria, Israel, and Russia, 1991-2000, Costa Mesa, CA: Mazda Publishers, 2001;
78. Philip Robins, Turkey and the Middle East, London: Royal Institute of International Affairs, 1991; and
79. John Waterbury, 'Transboundary water and the challenge of international cooperation in the Middle East', in Peter Roger & Peter Lydon (eds), Water in the Arab World, Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 1990, pp 39-64. During this time, the Syrian government denied the presence of these rebels on its soil.
80. Author's interview with field engineer, San Urfa, Turkey, 20 August 2001.
81. For a full examination of cooperation along the Indus River, see Neda A Zawahri, 'Havoc and harmony over international rivers', PhD dissertation, University of Virginia, 2004.
82. From 1947 until 1971 Pakistan consisted of two wings - West and East Pakistan. In 1971 East Pakistan became Bangladesh.
83. Farzana Noshab & Nadia Mushtaq, 'Water disputes in South Asia', Institute of Strategic Studies, 51, 2001, pp 21-32.
84. Author's interview with VG Hegde, Legal Officer, Legal and Treaties Division, Ministry of External Affairs, Government of India, New Delhi, 14 May 2002.
85. Keohane, After Hegemony;
86. Keohane, International Institutions and State Power; and
87. Bernauer, 'Managing international rivers'.
88. Keohane, After Hegemony.
89. Biswas, 'Management of international waters'; and
90. Nakayama, 'Successes and failures of international organizations in dealing with international waters'.
91. Bernauer, 'Managing international rivers';
92. Marty, Managing International Rivers; and
93. Giordano et al, 'International resource conflict and mitigation'.
94. John Waterbury, 'Dynamics of basin-wide cooperation in the utilization of the Euphrates', paper presented at the conference 'Economic Development of Syria: Problems, Progress, and Prospects', Damascus, Syria, 6-7 January, 1990.
95. The Ilisu dam, which Turkey is attempting to construct along the Tigris, is an example. See 'Dam opponents welcome Balfour decision', BBC News, 13 November 2001, at http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi_news/politics/ 1654325.stm; and
96. Tabitha Morgan, 'Dam decision takes Turkey by surprise', BBC News, 13 November 2001, at http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/1654180.stm.
97. Scheumann, 'Conflicts on the Euphrates', p 118.
98. Author's interview with Syrian government official, Damascus, 20 June 2001.
99. Biswas, 'Management of international waters';
100. Niranjan Gulhati, Indus Waters Treaty: An Exercise in International Mediation, Bombay: Allied Publishers, 1973;
101. Arthur Michel, The Indus Rivers, New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 1967; and
102. Nakayama, 'Successes and failures of international organizations in dealing with international waters'.
103. Charles P Kindleberger, The World in Depression, 1929-1939, Berkley, CA: University of California Press, 1973.
104. Nakayama, 'Successes and failures of international organizations in dealing with international waters'.
105. For an examination of these states' wasteful use of water, see Turhan Akuzum, Suleyman Kodal & Belgin Cakjman, 'Irrigation management in GAP', Water Resources Development, 13 (4), 1997, pp 547-560;
106. Ahmad, 'Agricultural policy issues and challenges in Iraq'; and
107. 'The Study on Water Resources Development in the Northwestern and Central Basins in the Syrian Arab Republic'.
108. Waterbury, 'Dynamics of basin-wide cooperation in the utilization of the Euphrates', p 6.
109. Keohane, After Hegemony; Robert O Keohane & Lisa L Martin, 'The promise of institutionalist theory', International Security, 20 (1), 1995, pp 39-51; and
110. Ronald Mitchell, 'Regime design matters: Intentional oil pollution and treaty compliance', International Organization, 48 (3), 1994, pp 425-458.
111. Bernauer, 'Managing international rivers';
112. Marty, Managing International Rivers; and
113. Giordano et al, 'International resource conflict and mitigation'.
114. Indus Waters Treaty, p 16.
115. Lok Sabha Debate, 9 April 1964. The Lok Sabha - House of the People - is the lower house in the Indian parliament.
116. Author's interview with Savas Uskay, Head of Operation and Maintenance Department of DSI, Ankara, 13 and 17 August 2001.
117. Ibid.
118. JTC meeting notes, 7-12 March 1990.
119. JTC meeting notes, 13-20 March 1989.
120. This statement is based on reports by JTC members in attendance.
121. JTC meeting notes, 13-20 March 1989.