Loss aversion, presidential responsibility, and midterm congressional elections

Electoral Studies

Volumn 25, Issue 2, 2006, Pages 227-247

  Patty, John W ^a  

^a HARVARD UNIVERSITY   (United States)

Author keywords

Congressional elections; Loss aversion; Midterm elections; Prospect theory; Voting

Indexed keywords

ELECTION; EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS; NUMERICAL MODEL; POLITICAL PARTICIPATION; VOTING BEHAVIOR;

NORTH AMERICA; UNITED STATES;

EID: 33748945017     PISSN: 02613794     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2005.05.004     Document Type: Article

References (39)

1. Alesina A., and Rosenthal H. Partisan cycles in congressional elections and the macroeconomy. American Political Science Review 83 (1989) 373-398
2. Alesina A., and Rosenthal H. Partisan Politics, Divided Government, and the Economy (1995), Cambridge University Press, New York
3. Alesina A., and Rosenthal H. A theory of divided government. Econometrica 64 6 (1996) 1311-1341
4. Born R. Strategic politicians and unresponsive voters. American Political Science Review 80 (1986) 599-612
5. Caldeira G., Patterson S., and Markko G. The mobilization of voters in congressional elections. Journal of Politics 47 (1985) 490-509
6. Campbell A. Surge and decline: a study of electoral change. Public Opinion Quarterly 24 (1960) 397-418
7. Campbell J. The revised theory of surge and decline. American Journal of Political Science 3 4 (1987) 965-979
8. Campbell J. The presidential surge and its midterm decline in congressional elections. Journal of Politics 53 2 (1991) 477-487
9. Campbell J. The presidential poles and the 1994 midterm congressional election. Journal of Politics 59 3 (1997) 830-857
10. Converse P. The concept of a normal vote. In: Campbell A., Converse P., Miller W., and Stokes D. (Eds). Elections and the Political Order (1966), Wiley, New York
11. Cover A. Presidential evaluations and voting for congress. American Journal of Political Science 30 4 (1986) 786-801
12. Economic History Services. 3 to 6 Month U.S. commercial paper rates, 1831-2001 (2003). http://www.eh.net/hmit/paperrates/ (accessed on November 4, 2003)
13. Erikson R. The puzzle of midterm loss. Journal of Politics 50 4 (1988) 1011-1029
14. Gilliam Jr. F. Influence on voter turnout for U.S. House elections in non-presidential years. Legislative Studies Quarterly 10 (1985) 339-352
15. Hammond, P., 1985. Consequential behavior in decision trees and expected utility. Institute of Mathematical Studies in the Social Sciences, Working Paper no. 112, Stanford University.
16. Jacobson G. The Politics of Congressional Elections. second ed. (1987), Foresman and Company, Glenview, IL
17. Johnston, L.D., Williamson, S.H., 2003. Source note for US GDP, 1789-Present.
18. Economic History Services (2003). http://www.eh.net/hmit/gdp/GDPsource.htm (accessed on November 4, 2003)
19. Kahneman D., Knetsch J., and Thaler R. Anomalies: the endowment effect, loss aversion, and status quo bias. Journal of Economic Perspectives 5 1 (1991) 193-206
20. Kahneman D., and Tversky A. Prospect theory: an analysis of decision under risk. Econometrica 47 (1979) 263-291
21. Kernell S. Presidential popularity and negative voting: an alternative explanation of the midterm congressional decline of the President's Party. American Political Science Review 71 1 (1977) 44-66
22. Kramer G.H. Short-term fluctuations in U.S. voting behavior, 1896-1964. American Political Science Review 65 1 (1971) 131-143
23. Levitt S.D. An empirical test of competing explanations for the midterm gap in the U.S. House. Economics and Politics 6 (1994) 25-37
24. McKelvey, R.D., Patty, J.W., 2003. A theory of voting in large elections. Mimeo, Carnegie Mellon University.
25. Myerson R., and Weber R. A theory of voting equilibria. American Political Science Review 87 (1993) 102-114
26. Patty, J.W., 2004. The behavioral foundations of the midterm effect. Paper presented at the 2004 Wallis Institute Conference on Political Economy, University of Rochester.
27. Patty J.W., Weber, R.A., 2001. Let the good times roll: a theory of voter inference and experimental evidence. Mimeo, Carnegie Mellon University.
28. Popkin S. The Reasoning Voter (1991), University of Chicago Press, Chicago
29. Quattrone G., and Tversky A. Causal versus diagnostic contingencies: on self-deception and on the voter's illusion. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 46 (1984) 237-248
30. Quattrone G., and Tversky A. Contrasting rational and psychological analyses of political choice. American Political Science Review 82 3 (1988) 719-736
31. Riker W., and Ordeshook P.C. A theory of the calculus of voting. American Political Science Review 61 1 (1968) 25-42
32. Ross L.D., Amabile T.M., and Steinmetz J.L. Social roles, social control, and biases in social-perception processes. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 35 (1977) 483-494
33. Ross L.D., and Nisbett R.E. The Person and the Situation: Perspectives of Social Psychology (1991), McGraw-Hill, New York
34. Samuelson W., and Zeckhauser R. Status quo bias in decision making. Journal of Risk and Uncertainty 1 1 (1988) 7-59
35. Scheve K., and Tomz M. Electoral surprise and the midterm loss in U.S. congressional elections. British Journal of Political Science 29 (1999) 507-521
36. Thaler R. Quasi Rational Economics (1991), Russell Sage Foundation, New York
37. Tufte E. Determinants of the outcomes of midterm congressional elections. American Political Science Review 69 4 (1975) 812-826
38. Tufte E. Political Control of the Economy (1978), Princeton University Press, Princeton
39. Tversky A., and Kahneman D. Rational choice and the framing of decisions. Journal of Business 59 4 (1986) 251-278