메뉴 건너뛰기




Volumn 273, Issue 1592, 2006, Pages 1307-1316

Epidemic dynamics and antigenic evolution in a single season of influenza A

Author keywords

Antigenic drift; Herd immunity; Immune escape; Influenza; Population dynamics; Population genetics

Indexed keywords

HEMAGGLUTININ; RNA POLYMERASE; VIRUS ANTIGEN;

EID: 33746198065     PISSN: 09628452     EISSN: 14712970     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1098/rspb.2006.3466     Document Type: Article
Times cited : (82)

References (48)
  • 2
    • 0141517826 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Dynamics of annual influenza A epidemics with immuno-selection
    • doi:10.1007/s00285- 002-0186-2
    • Andreasen, V. 2003 Dynamics of annual influenza A epidemics with immuno-selection. J. Math. Biol. 46, 504-536. (doi:10.1007/s00285- 002-0186-2)
    • (2003) J. Math. Biol , vol.46 , pp. 504-536
    • Andreasen, V.1
  • 3
  • 4
    • 0347185345 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The role of evolution in the emergence of infectious diseases
    • doi:10.1038/nature02104
    • Antia, R., Regoes, R. R., Koella, J. C. & Bergstrom, C. T. 2003 The role of evolution in the emergence of infectious diseases. Nature 426, 658-661. (doi:10.1038/nature02104)
    • (2003) Nature , vol.426 , pp. 658-661
    • Antia, R.1    Regoes, R.R.2    Koella, J.C.3    Bergstrom, C.T.4
  • 5
    • 1242299532 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Influenza drift and epidemic size: The race between generating and escaping immunity
    • doi:10.1016/j.tpb. 2003.10.002
    • Boni, M. F., Gog, J. R., Andreasen, V. & Christiansen, F. B. 2004 Influenza drift and epidemic size: the race between generating and escaping immunity. Theor. Popul. Biol. 65, 179-191. (doi:10.1016/j.tpb. 2003.10.002)
    • (2004) Theor. Popul. Biol , vol.65 , pp. 179-191
    • Boni, M.F.1    Gog, J.R.2    Andreasen, V.3    Christiansen, F.B.4
  • 6
    • 0032736987 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Positive selection on the H3 hemagglutinin gene of human influenza virus A
    • Bush, R. M., Fitch, W. M., Bender, C. A. & Cox, N. J. 1999 Positive selection on the H3 hemagglutinin gene of human influenza virus A. Mol. Biol. Evol. 16, 1457-1465.
    • (1999) Mol. Biol. Evol , vol.16 , pp. 1457-1465
    • Bush, R.M.1    Fitch, W.M.2    Bender, C.A.3    Cox, N.J.4
  • 7
    • 0035211444 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Rapid molecular analysis of the haemagglutinin gene of human influenza A H3N2 viruses isolated in Spain from 1996 to 2000
    • doi:10.1007/ s007050170025
    • Coiras, M., Aguilar, J., Galiano, M., Carlos, S., Gregory, V., Lin, Y., Hay, A. & Pérez-Breña, P. 2001 Rapid molecular analysis of the haemagglutinin gene of human influenza A H3N2 viruses isolated in Spain from 1996 to 2000. Arch. Virol. 146, 2133-2147. (doi:10.1007/ s007050170025)
    • (2001) Arch. Virol , vol.146 , pp. 2133-2147
    • Coiras, M.1    Aguilar, J.2    Galiano, M.3    Carlos, S.4    Gregory, V.5    Lin, Y.6    Hay, A.7    Pérez-Breña, P.8
  • 8
    • 0034051550 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Global epidemiology of influenza: Past and present
    • doi:10.1146/annurev. med.51.1.407
    • Cox, N. J. & Subbarao, K. 2000 Global epidemiology of influenza: past and present. Annu. Rev. Med. 51, 407-421. (doi:10.1146/annurev. med.51.1.407)
    • (2000) Annu. Rev. Med , vol.51 , pp. 407-421
    • Cox, N.J.1    Subbarao, K.2
  • 9
    • 0015293686 scopus 로고
    • Relationship of air temperature to outbreaks of influenza
    • Davey, M. L. & Reid, D. 1972 Relationship of air temperature to outbreaks of influenza. Br. J. Prev. Soc. Med. 26, 28-32.
    • (1972) Br. J. Prev. Soc. Med , vol.26 , pp. 28-32
    • Davey, M.L.1    Reid, D.2
  • 10
    • 0034072605 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • de Jong, J. C., Beyer, W. E. P., Palache, A. M., Rimmelzwaan, G. F. & Osterhaus, A. D. M. E. 2000a Mismatch between the 1997/1998 influenza vaccine and the major epidemic A(H3N2) virus strain as the cause of an inadequate vaccine-induced antibody response to this strain in the elderly. J. Med. Virol. 61, 94-99. (doi:10.1002/(SICI)1096-9071(200005)61: 1〈94::AID-JMV15〉3.0.CO;2-C)
    • de Jong, J. C., Beyer, W. E. P., Palache, A. M., Rimmelzwaan, G. F. & Osterhaus, A. D. M. E. 2000a Mismatch between the 1997/1998 influenza vaccine and the major epidemic A(H3N2) virus strain as the cause of an inadequate vaccine-induced antibody response to this strain in the elderly. J. Med. Virol. 61, 94-99. (doi:10.1002/(SICI)1096-9071(200005)61: 1〈94::AID-JMV15〉3.0.CO;2-C)
  • 11
  • 13
    • 10044287073 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Dynamical resonance can account for seasonality of influenza epidemics
    • doi:10.1073/pnas. 0407293101
    • Dushoff, J., Plotkin, J. B., Levin, S. A. & Earn, D. J. D. 2004 Dynamical resonance can account for seasonality of influenza epidemics. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 101, 16 915-16 916. (doi:10.1073/pnas. 0407293101)
    • (2004) Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA , vol.101
    • Dushoff, J.1    Plotkin, J.B.2    Levin, S.A.3    Earn, D.J.D.4
  • 14
    • 0036643943 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Ecology and evolution of the flu
    • doi:10.1016/S0169- 5347(02)02502-8
    • Earn, D. J. D., Dushoff, J. & Levin, S. A. 2002 Ecology and evolution of the flu. Trends Ecol. Evol. 17, 334-340. (doi:10.1016/S0169- 5347(02)02502-8)
    • (2002) Trends Ecol. Evol , vol.17 , pp. 334-340
    • Earn, D.J.D.1    Dushoff, J.2    Levin, S.A.3
  • 15
    • 0037468827 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Ecological and immunological determinants of influenza evolution
    • doi:10.1038/nature01509
    • Ferguson, N. M., Galvani, A. P. & Bush, R. M. 2003 Ecological and immunological determinants of influenza evolution. Nature 422, 428-433. (doi:10.1038/nature01509)
    • (2003) Nature , vol.422 , pp. 428-433
    • Ferguson, N.M.1    Galvani, A.P.2    Bush, R.M.3
  • 17
    • 0030750055 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Long term trends in the evolution of H(3) HA1 human influenza type A
    • doi:10.1073/pnas.94.15.7712
    • Fitch, W. M., Bush, R. M., Bender, C. A. & Cox, N. J. 1997 Long term trends in the evolution of H(3) HA1 human influenza type A. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 94, 7712-7718. (doi:10.1073/pnas.94.15.7712)
    • (1997) Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA , vol.94 , pp. 7712-7718
    • Fitch, W.M.1    Bush, R.M.2    Bender, C.A.3    Cox, N.J.4
  • 18
    • 13844309567 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Neutral microepidemic evolution of bacterial pathogens
    • doi:10.1073/pnas.0406993102
    • Fraser, C., Hanage, W. P. & Spratt, B. G. 2005 Neutral microepidemic evolution of bacterial pathogens. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 102, 1968-1973. (doi:10.1073/pnas.0406993102)
    • (2005) Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA , vol.102 , pp. 1968-1973
    • Fraser, C.1    Hanage, W.P.2    Spratt, B.G.3
  • 19
    • 0017093725 scopus 로고
    • Naturally acquired immunity to influenza type A: A clinical and laboratory study
    • Gill, P. W. & Murphy, A. M. 1976 Naturally acquired immunity to influenza type A: a clinical and laboratory study. Med. J. Aust. 2, 329-333.
    • (1976) Med. J. Aust , vol.2 , pp. 329-333
    • Gill, P.W.1    Murphy, A.M.2
  • 20
    • 41349118931 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A simple model of epidemics with pathogen mutation
    • doi:10.1103/PhysRevE.65.031915
    • Girvan, M., Callaway, D. S., Newman, M. E. J. & Strogatz, S. H. 2002 A simple model of epidemics with pathogen mutation. Phys. Rev. E 65, 031915. (doi:10.1103/PhysRevE.65.031915)
    • (2002) Phys. Rev. E , vol.65 , pp. 031915
    • Girvan, M.1    Callaway, D.S.2    Newman, M.E.J.3    Strogatz, S.H.4
  • 21
    • 0037168563 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Dynamics and selection of many-strain pathogens
    • doi:10.1073/pnas.252512799
    • Gog, J. R. & Grenfell, B. T. 2002 Dynamics and selection of many-strain pathogens. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 99, 17 209-17 214. (doi:10.1073/pnas.252512799)
    • (2002) Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA , vol.99
    • Gog, J.R.1    Grenfell, B.T.2
  • 22
    • 0141702339 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Population dynamics of rapid fixation in cytotoxic T lymphocye escape mutants of influenza A
    • doi:10.1073/pnas.1830296100
    • Gog, J. R., Rimmelzwaan, G. F., Osterhaus, A. D. M. E. & Grenfell, B. T. 2003 Population dynamics of rapid fixation in cytotoxic T lymphocye escape mutants of influenza A. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 100, 11 143-11 147. (doi:10.1073/pnas.1830296100)
    • (2003) Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA , vol.100
    • Gog, J.R.1    Rimmelzwaan, G.F.2    Osterhaus, A.D.M.E.3    Grenfell, B.T.4
  • 23
    • 35448982024 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Influenza virus antigens and 'antigenic drift'
    • ed. C. W. Potter, pp, Amsterdam, The Netherlands: Elsevier Science B.V
    • Hampson, A. W. 2002 Influenza virus antigens and 'antigenic drift'. In Influenza (ed. C. W. Potter), pp. 49-86. Amsterdam, The Netherlands: Elsevier Science B.V.
    • (2002) Influenza , pp. 49-86
    • Hampson, A.W.1
  • 24
    • 0031589843 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Evolutionary pattern of intra-host pathogen antigenic drift: Effect of cross-reactivity in immune response
    • doi:10.1098/rstb.1997.0002
    • Haraguchi, Y. & Sasaki, A. 1997 Evolutionary pattern of intra-host pathogen antigenic drift: effect of cross-reactivity in immune response. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B 352, 11-20. (doi:10.1098/rstb.1997.0002)
    • (1997) Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B , vol.352 , pp. 11-20
    • Haraguchi, Y.1    Sasaki, A.2
  • 25
    • 0035969777 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The evolution of human influenza viruses
    • doi:10.1098/rstb.2001.0999
    • Hay, A. J., Gregory, V., Douglas, A. R. & Lin, Y. P. 2001 The evolution of human influenza viruses. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B 356, 1861-1870. (doi:10.1098/rstb.2001.0999)
    • (2001) Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B , vol.356 , pp. 1861-1870
    • Hay, A.J.1    Gregory, V.2    Douglas, A.R.3    Lin, Y.P.4
  • 26
    • 0000998185 scopus 로고
    • Contributions to the mathematical theory of epidemics 1
    • Kermack, W. O. & McKendrick, A. G. 1927 Contributions to the mathematical theory of epidemics 1. Proc. R. Soc. A 115, 700-721.
    • (1927) Proc. R. Soc. A , vol.115 , pp. 700-721
    • Kermack, W.O.1    McKendrick, A.G.2
  • 27
    • 0015605829 scopus 로고
    • The molecular epidemiology of influenza
    • Kilbourne, E. D. 1973 The molecular epidemiology of influenza. J. Infect. Dis. 127, 478-487.
    • (1973) J. Infect. Dis , vol.127 , pp. 478-487
    • Kilbourne, E.D.1
  • 28
    • 0014421064 scopus 로고
    • Evolutionary rate at the molecular level
    • Kimura, M. 1968 Evolutionary rate at the molecular level. Nature 217, 624-626.
    • (1968) Nature , vol.217 , pp. 624-626
    • Kimura, M.1
  • 29
    • 0014553632 scopus 로고
    • The rate of molecular evolution considered from the standpoint of population genetics
    • Kimura, M. 1969 The rate of molecular evolution considered from the standpoint of population genetics. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 63, 1181-1188.
    • (1969) Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA , vol.63 , pp. 1181-1188
    • Kimura, M.1
  • 30
    • 0035823174 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The geometry of shape space: Application to influenza
    • doi:10.1006/jtbi.2001.2347
    • Lapedes, A. & Farber, R. 2001 The geometry of shape space: application to influenza. J. Theor. Biol. 212, 57-69. (doi:10.1006/jtbi.2001.2347)
    • (2001) J. Theor. Biol , vol.212 , pp. 57-69
    • Lapedes, A.1    Farber, R.2
  • 32
    • 34447622953 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The value of a database in surveillance and vaccine selection
    • ed. A. D. M. E. Osterhaus, N. Cox & A. W. Hampson, pp, Amsterdam: Elsevier Science
    • Macken, C., Lu, H., Goodman, J. & Boykin, L. 2001 The value of a database in surveillance and vaccine selection. In Options for the control of influenza IV (ed. A. D. M. E. Osterhaus, N. Cox & A. W. Hampson), pp. 103-106. Amsterdam: Elsevier Science.
    • (2001) Options for the control of influenza IV , pp. 103-106
    • Macken, C.1    Lu, H.2    Goodman, J.3    Boykin, L.4
  • 33
    • 11144334667 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Transmissibility of the 1918 pandemic influenza
    • doi:10.1038/nature03063
    • Mills, C. E., Robins, J. M. & Lipsitch, M. 2004 Transmissibility of the 1918 pandemic influenza. Nature 432, 904-906. (doi:10.1038/nature03063)
    • (2004) Nature , vol.432 , pp. 904-906
    • Mills, C.E.1    Robins, J.M.2    Lipsitch, M.3
  • 34
    • 0036847746 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Extinction times for closed epidemics: The effects of host spatial structure
    • doi:10.1046/j.1461-0248.2002.00378.x
    • Park, A. W., Gubbins, S. & Gilligan, C. A. 2002 Extinction times for closed epidemics: the effects of host spatial structure. Ecol. Lett. 5, 747-755. (doi:10.1046/j.1461-0248.2002.00378.x)
    • (2002) Ecol. Lett , vol.5 , pp. 747-755
    • Park, A.W.1    Gubbins, S.2    Gilligan, C.A.3
  • 35
    • 0023353731 scopus 로고
    • An evolutionary epidemiological mechanism, with applications to type A influenza
    • doi:10.1016/0040-5809(87)90014-1
    • Pease, C. M. 1987 An evolutionary epidemiological mechanism, with applications to type A influenza. Theor. Popul. Biol. 31, 422-452. (doi:10.1016/0040-5809(87)90014-1)
    • (1987) Theor. Popul. Biol , vol.31 , pp. 422-452
    • Pease, C.M.1
  • 36
    • 0038133117 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Codon bias and frequency-dependent selection on the hemagglutinin epitopes of the influenza A virus
    • doi:10.1073/pnas.1132114100
    • Plotkin, J. B. & Dushoff, J. 2003 Codon bias and frequency-dependent selection on the hemagglutinin epitopes of the influenza A virus. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 100, 7152-7157. (doi:10.1073/pnas.1132114100)
    • (2003) Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA , vol.100 , pp. 7152-7157
    • Plotkin, J.B.1    Dushoff, J.2
  • 37
    • 0014830535 scopus 로고
    • Selection and covariance
    • doi:10.1038/227520a0
    • Price, G. R. 1970 Selection and covariance. Nature 227, 520-521. (doi:10.1038/227520a0)
    • (1970) Nature , vol.227 , pp. 520-521
    • Price, G.R.1
  • 38
    • 0015330403 scopus 로고
    • Extension of covariance selection mathematics
    • Price, G. R. 1972 Extension of covariance selection mathematics. Ann. Hum. Genet. Lond. 35, 485-490.
    • (1972) Ann. Hum. Genet. Lond , vol.35 , pp. 485-490
    • Price, G.R.1
  • 39
    • 0345802994 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Influence of antigenic drift on the intensity of influenza outbreaks: Upper respiratory tract infections of military conscripts in Finland
    • doi:10.1002/jmv.10552
    • Pyhala, R., Visakorpi, R., Ikonen, N. & Kleemola, M. 2004 Influence of antigenic drift on the intensity of influenza outbreaks: upper respiratory tract infections of military conscripts in Finland. J. Med. Virol. 72, 275-280. (doi:10.1002/jmv.10552)
    • (2004) J. Med. Virol , vol.72 , pp. 275-280
    • Pyhala, R.1    Visakorpi, R.2    Ikonen, N.3    Kleemola, M.4
  • 40
    • 0028361849 scopus 로고
    • Evolution of antigenic drift/switching: Continuously evading pathogens
    • doi:10.1006/jtbi.1994.1110
    • Sasaki, A. 1994 Evolution of antigenic drift/switching: continuously evading pathogens. J. Theor. Biol. 168, 291-308. (doi:10.1006/jtbi.1994.1110)
    • (1994) J. Theor. Biol , vol.168 , pp. 291-308
    • Sasaki, A.1
  • 41
    • 0033815293 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Antigenic drift of viruses within a host: A finite site model with demographic stochasticity
    • Sasaki, A. & Haraguchi, Y. 2000 Antigenic drift of viruses within a host: a finite site model with demographic stochasticity. J. Mol. Evol. 51, 245-255.
    • (2000) J. Mol. Evol , vol.51 , pp. 245-255
    • Sasaki, A.1    Haraguchi, Y.2
  • 42
    • 0000663801 scopus 로고
    • Airborne transmission of influenza virus infection in mice
    • Schulman, J. L. & Kilbourne, E. D. 1962 Airborne transmission of influenza virus infection in mice. Nature 195, 1129-1130.
    • (1962) Nature , vol.195 , pp. 1129-1130
    • Schulman, J.L.1    Kilbourne, E.D.2
  • 43
    • 0036454033 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Antigenic drift and variability of influenza viruses
    • doi:10.1007/s00430-002-0132-3
    • Schweiger, B., Zadow, I. & Heckler, R. 2002 Antigenic drift and variability of influenza viruses. Med. Microbiol. Immunol. 191, 133-138. (doi:10.1007/s00430-002-0132-3)
    • (2002) Med. Microbiol. Immunol , vol.191 , pp. 133-138
    • Schweiger, B.1    Zadow, I.2    Heckler, R.3
  • 45
    • 0344395604 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Are we ready for pandemic influenza?
    • doi:10.1126/science.1090350
    • Webby, R. J. & Webster, R. G. 2003 Are we ready for pandemic influenza? Science 302, 1519-1522. (doi:10.1126/science.1090350)
    • (2003) Science , vol.302 , pp. 1519-1522
    • Webby, R.J.1    Webster, R.G.2
  • 47
    • 18444372056 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Semiparametric estimation of the duration of immunity from infectious disease time series: Influenza as a case-study
    • doi:10.1111/j.1467- 9876.2005.05383.x
    • Xia, Y., Gog, J. R. & Grenfell, B. T. 2005 Semiparametric estimation of the duration of immunity from infectious disease time series: influenza as a case-study. J. R. Stat. Soc. C 54, 659-672. (doi:10.1111/j.1467- 9876.2005.05383.x)
    • (2005) J. R. Stat. Soc. C , vol.54 , pp. 659-672
    • Xia, Y.1    Gog, J.R.2    Grenfell, B.T.3
  • 48
    • 0001895697 scopus 로고
    • Evolutionary divergence and convergence in proteins
    • ed. V. Bryson & H. J. Vogel, pp, New York: Academic Press
    • Zuckerkandl, E. & Pauling, L. 1965 Evolutionary divergence and convergence in proteins. In Evolving genes and proteins (ed. V. Bryson & H. J. Vogel), pp. 97-166. New York: Academic Press.
    • (1965) Evolving genes and proteins , pp. 97-166
    • Zuckerkandl, E.1    Pauling, L.2


* 이 정보는 Elsevier사의 SCOPUS DB에서 KISTI가 분석하여 추출한 것입니다.