Changes in synoptic weather patterns in the polar regions in the twentieth and twenty-first centuries, Part 1: Arctic

International Journal of Climatology

Volumn 26, Issue 8, 2006, Pages 1027-1049

  Cassano, John J ^a   Uotila, Petteri ^b   Lynch, Amanda ^b  

^a UNIVERSITY OF COLORADO   (United States)

^b MONASH UNIVERSITY   (Australia)

Author keywords

Arctic; Climate change; Global climate model; Synoptic climatology

Indexed keywords

ATMOSPHERIC TEMPERATURE; CLIMATE CHANGE; COMPUTER SIMULATION; MATHEMATICAL MODELS; PRECIPITATION (METEOROLOGY); SELF ORGANIZING MAPS; WEATHER FORECASTING;

CIRCULATION PATTERNS; GLOBAL CLIMATE MODEL; INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL; SYNOPTIC CLIMATOLOGY;

CLIMATOLOGY;

CLIMATE CHANGE; CLIMATE MODELING; CLIMATE PREDICTION; CLIMATOLOGY; POLAR REGION; SYNOPTIC METEOROLOGY; TWENTIETH CENTURY; TWENTY FIRST CENTURY;

EID: 33745617409     PISSN: 08998418     EISSN: 10970088     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1002/joc.1306     Document Type: Article

References (47)

1. ACIA. 2004. Impacts of a Warming Arctic: Arctic Climate Impact Assessment. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge: 139.
2. Ambroise C, Sèze G, Badran F, Thiria S. 2000. Hierarchical clustering of self-organizing maps for cloud classification. Neurocomputing 30: 47-52.
3. Barry RG, Perry AH. 2001. Synoptic climatology and its applications. In Synoptic and Dynamic Climatology, Barry RG, Carleton AM (eds). Routledge: London 547-603.
4. Berbery EH, Vera C. 1996. Characteristics of the Southern Hemisphere winter storm track with filtered and unfiltered data. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences 53: 468-481.
5. Bitz CM, Fyfe JC, Flato GM. 2002. Sea ice response to wind forcing from AMIP models. Journal of Climate 15: 522-536.
6. Cao ZH, Zhang DL. 2004. Tracking surface cyclones with moist potential vorticity. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 21: 830-835.
7. Carvalho LMV, Jones C, Ambrizzi T. 2005. Opposite phases of the antarctic oscillation and relationships with intraseasonal to interannual activity in the tropics during the austral summer. Journal of Climate 18: 702-718.
8. Cavazos T. 1999. Large-scale circulation anomalies conducive to extreme precipitation events and derivation of daily rainfall in northeastern Mexico and southeastern Texas. Journal of Climate 12: 1506-1523.
9. Cavazos T. 2000. Using self-organizing maps to investigate extreme climate events: An application to wintertime precipitation in the Balkans. Journal of Climate 13: 1718-1732.
10. Gillett NP, Allen MR, Williams KD. 2002. The role of stratospheric resolution in simulating the Arctic oscillation response to greenhouse gases. Geophysical Research Letters 29(1500):, DOI:10.1029/2001GL014444.
11. 2 and depleted stratospheric ozone using a stratosphere-resolving coupled GCM. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 129: 947-966.
12. Hanson CE, Palutikof JP, Davies TD. 2004. Objective cyclone climatologies of the North Atlantic - a comparison between the ECMWF and NCEP reanalysis. Climate Dynamics 22: 757-769.
13. Hewitson BC, Crane RG. 2002. Self-organising maps: Applications to synoptic climatology. Climate Research 22: 13-26.
14. Hinzman L, Bettez ND, Bolton WR, Chapin FS, Dyurgerov MB, Fastie CL, Griffith B, Hollister RD, Hope A, Huntington HP, Jensen AM, Jia GJ, Jorgenson T, Kane DL, Klein DR, Kofinas G, Lynch AH, Lloyd AH, McGuire AD, Nelson FE, Oechel WC, Osterkamp TE, Racine CH, Romanovsky VE, Stone RS, Stow DA, Sturm M, Tweedie CE, Vourlitis GL, Walker MD, Walker DA, Webber PJ, Welker JM, Winker KS, Yoshikawa K. 2005. Evidence and implications of recent climate change in terrestrial regions of the Arctic. Climatic Change 72: 251-298, DOI: 10.1007/s10584-005-5352-2.
15. Kalkstein LS, Tan G, Skindlov JA. 1987. An evaluation of three clustering procedures for use in synoptic climatological classification. Journal of Climate and Applied Meteorology 26: 717-730.
16. Kalnay E, Kanamitsu M, Kistler R, Collins W, Deaven D, Gandin L, Iredell M, Saha S, White G, Woollen J, Zhu Y, Leetmaa A, Reynolds B, Chelliah M, Ebisuzaki W, Higgins W, Janowiak J, Mo KC, Ropelewski C, Wang J, Jenne R, Joseph D. 1996. The NCEP/NCAR 40-year reanalysis project. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 77: 437-471.
17. Kaski S, Honkela T, Lagus K, Kohonen T. 1998. WEBSOM - Self-organizing maps of document collections. Neurocomputing 21: 101-117.
18. Kidson JW, Sinclair MR. 1995. The influence of persistent anomalies on Southern Hemisphere storm tracks. Journal of Climate 8: 1938-1950.
19. Kohonen T. 2001. Self-Organizing Maps. Springer: Berlin 501.
20. Lambert SJ, Sheng J, Boyle J. 2002. Winter cyclone frequencies in thirteen models participating it the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP1). Climate Dynamics 19: 1-16.
21. Lynch AH, Uotila P, Cassano JJ. 2005. Changes in synoptic weather patterns in the polar regions in the 20th and 21st centuries, Part 2: Antarctic. International Journal of Climatology. (in press).
22. Lynch AH, Brunner RD, Cassano EN, Jensen A, Koslow MR, Lestak L, Manley WF, Maslanik JA, Mearns LO, Pocernich M, Sheehan G, Sturtevant P, Tebaldi C. 2004. Barrow Climatic and Environmental Conditions and Variations - A Compendium. Technical Edition, 124.
23. Malmgren BA, Winter A. 1999. Climate zonation in Puerto Rico based on principal components analysis and an artificial neural network. Journal of Climate 12: 977-985.
24. McCabe GJ, Clark MP, Serreze MC. 2001. Trends in Northern Hemisphere surface cyclone frequency and intensity. Journal of Climate 14: 2763-2768.
25. Michaelides SC, Pattichis CS, Kleovoulou G. 2001. Classification of rainfall variability by using artificial neural networks. International Journal of Climatology 21: 1401-1414.
26. Nakamura H, Shimpo A. 2004. Seasonal variations in the Southern Hemisphere storm tracks and jet streams as revealed in a reanalysis dataset. Journal of Climate 17: 1828-1844.
27. Nakicenovic N, Swart R (eds). 2000. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emissions Scenarios. Cambridge University Press: Cambridge.
28. Oja M, Kaski S, Kohonen T. 2003. Bibliography of self-organizing map (SOM) papers: 1998-2001 addendum. Neural Computing Surveys 3: 1-156.
29. Paciorek CJ, Risbey JS, Ventura V, Rosen RD. 2002. Multiple indices of Northern Hemisphere cyclone activity, Winters 1949-99. Journal of Climate 15: 1573-1590.
30. Pezza AB, Ambrizzi T. 2003. Variability of Southern Hemisphere cyclone and anticyclone behavior: Further analysis. Journal of Climate 16: 1075-1083.
31. Rao VB, do Carmo AMC, Franchito SH. 2002. Seasonal variations in the Southern Hemisphere storm tracks and associated wave propagation. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences 59: 1029-1040.
32. Reusch DB, Hewitson BC, Alley RB. 2005. Towards ice-core-based synoptic reconstructions of West Antarctic climate with artificial neural networks. International Journal of Climatology 25: 581-610.
33. Sammon J. 1969. A non-linear mapping for data structure and analyses. IEEE Transactions on Computers 18: 401-409.
34. Serreze MC, Box JE, Barry RG, Walsh JE. 1993. Characteristics of Arctic synoptic activity, 1952-1989. Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics 51: 147-164.
35. Serreze MC, Carse F, Barry RG, Rogers JC. 1997. Icelandic low cyclone activity: Climatological features, linkages with the NAO, and relationships with recent changes in the Northern Hemisphere circulation. Journal of Climate 10: 453-464.
36. Serreze MC, Lynch AH, Clark MP. 2001. The Arctic frontal zone as seen in the NCEP-NCAR reanalysis. Journal of Climate 14: 1550-1567.
37. Serreze MC, Walsh JE, Chapin FS, Osterkamp T, Dyurgerov M, Romanovsky V, Oechel WC, Morison J, Zhang T, Barry RG. 2000 Observational evidence of recent change in the northern high-latitude environment. Climatic Change 46: 159-207.
38. Sinclair MR. 1994. An objective cyclone climatology for the Southern Hemisphere. Monthly Weather Review 122: 2239-2256.
39. Simmons AJ, Gibson JK. 2000. The ERA-40 Project Plan. ECMF, Reading. ERA-40 Project Report Series No. 1, 63.
40. Thompson DWJ, Wallace JM. 1998. The Arctic oscillation signature in the wintertime geopotential height and temperature fields. Geophysical Research Letters 25: 1297-1300.
41. Thompson DWJ, Wallace JM, Hegerl GC. 2000. Annular modes in the extratropical circulation. Part II: Trends. Journal of Climate 13: 1019-1036.
42. Trenberth KE. 1991. Storm tracks in the Southern Hemisphere. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences 48: 2159-2178.
43. Vera C. 2003. Interannual and interdecadal variability of atmospheric synoptic-scale activity in the Southern Hemisphere. Journal of Geophysical Research 108: Art. No. 8077. DOI: 10.1029/2000JC000406.
44. Wallace JM, Lim G-H, Blackmon ML. 1988. Relationship between cyclone tracks, anticyclone tracks and baroclinic waveguides. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences 45: 439-462.
45. Walsh JE, Crane RG. 1992. A comparison of GCM simulations of Arctic climate. Geophysical Research Letters 19: 29-32.
46. Walsh JE, Chapman WL, Shy TL, 1996. Recent decrease of sea level pressure in the central Arctic. Journal of Climate 9: 480-486.
47. Zhang X, Walsh JE, Zhang J, Bhatt US, Ikeda M. 2004. Climatology of interannual variability of Arctic cyclone activity: 1948-2002. Journal of Climate 17: 2300-2317.