Rise of the automobiles: The costs of increased NO2 pollution in China's changing urban environment

Journal of Contemporary China

Volumn 15, Issue 47, 2006, Pages 349-367

  Mead, Robert W ^a   Brajer, Victor ^a  

^a CALIFORNIA STATE UNIVERSITY   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

CAR USE; CLEANUP; HEALTH IMPACT; NITROGEN DIOXIDE; PARTICULATE MATTER; SULFUR DIOXIDE; URBAN POLLUTION;

EID: 33745092429     PISSN: 10670564     EISSN: 14699400     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1080/10670560500535050     Document Type: Article

References (108)

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2. and K. He, H. Hou and Q. Zhang, 'Urban air pollution in China: Current status, characteristics, and progress', Annual Review of Energy and the Environment 27, (2002), pp. 397-431 both refer to listings of Chinese cities amongst the world's most polluted cities.
3. Extended discussion on the persistent nature of China's pollution can be found in J. Bannister, 'Population, public health, and the environment in China', China Quarterly no. 156, (December 1998), pp. 986-1015
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7. Surveys indicating increased environmental concern while sustaining economic concerns are found in Y. Wang, China's Economic Development and Democratization (Aldershot, England and Burlington, VT: Ashgate, 2003)
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9. General observations are given in World Bank, China: Air, Land, and Water (Washington, DC: World Bank 2001)
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11. Specific city observations can be found in S.-H. Ye, W. Zhou, J. Song, B.-C. Peng, D. Yuan, Y.-M. Lu and P.-P. Qi, 'Toxicity and health effects of vehicle emissions in Shanghai', Atmospheric Environment 34, (1999), pp. 419-429
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14. Bannister, 'Population, public health, and the environment in China'.
15. He et al., 'Urban air pollution in China', state that weekly air quality reports began in June 1997 and were replaced by daily reports in June 2000.
16. V. Brajer and R. W. Mead, 'Valuing air pollution mortality in China's cities', Urban Studies 41, (2004), pp. 1567-1585, manage to obtain annual pollution data for 38 cities over a three year span from a number of different Chinese sources but find that local environmental reports are only sporadically available or updated. Even the daily pollution numbers posted and archived on the State Environmental Protection Agency's (SEPA) website are the pollution index numbers for only the most serious pollutant for that particular day.
17. The World Bank, Clear Water, Blue Skies: China's Environment in the New Century (Washington, DC: World Bank, 1997) assumes that 1995 pollution levels in Beijing are representative and applies them to the entire urban population.
18. Single city studies have been done for Beijing by V. Brajer and R. W. Mead, 'Blue skies in Beijing? Looking at the Olympic effect', Journal of Environment and Development 12, (2003), pp. 239-263
19. for Shijiazhuang by C. Peng, X. Wu, G. Liu, T. Johnson, J. Shah and S. Guttikunda, 'Urban air quality and health in China', Urban Studies 12, (2002), pp. 2283-2299
20. and for Shanghai by H. Kan, B. Chen, C. Chen, Q. Fu and M. Chen, 'An evaluation of public health impact of ambient air pollution under various energy scenarios in Shanghai, China', Atmospheric Environment 38, (2004), pp. 95-102
21. H. Kan and B. Chen, 'Particulate air pollution in urban areas of Shanghai, China: Health-based economic assessment', Science of the Total Environment 322, (2004), pp. 71-79
22. and J. Li, S. K. Guttikunda, G. R. Carmichael, D. G. Streets, Y-S. Chang and V. Fung (2004) 'Quantifying the human health benefits of curbing air pollution in Shanghai', Journal of Environmental Management 70, (2004), pp. 49-62.
23. 2.
24. Single city studies by Peng et al., 'Urban air quality and health in China'
25. Kan et al., 'An evaluation of public health impact'
26. Kan and Chen, 'Particulate air pollution in urban areas'
27. and Li et al., 'Quantifying the human health benefits' include only particulates in their analysis.
28. In contrast, some other health studies such as R. Mead and V. Brajer, 'Protecting China's children: Valuing the health impacts of reduced air pollution in urban China', Environment and Development Economics, 10, (2005), pp. 745-768, focus on morbidity (illness) outcomes, ranging from simple cases of colds and sore throats, to respiratory hospital admissions and cases of chronic bronchitis.
29. 2 mortality instead of the Shanghai-based studies used here.
30. China Environmental Protection, Annual Report on Urban Environmental Management and Comprehensive Improvement of 47 Environmental Protection Key Cities. English version available online at: http://www.zhb.gov.cn/ english/report/47cities-2002.htm (accessed 15 June 2004).
31. For two additional cities (Maanshan and Pingxiang), 2002 pollution figures were obtained from the municipal environmental protection bureau websites. Annual reports for these two cities are available at: http://pxepb.gov.cn http://www.ahmasepa.gov.cn and http://pxepb.gov.cn (accessed 25 May 2004).
32. These are the ratios used in World Bank, China: Air, Land, and Water,
33. and World Bank, Clear Water, Blue Skies.
34. This is a standard approach in determining pollution costs. Brajer and Mead, 'Blue skies in Beijing?'
35. Brajer and Mead, 'Valuing air pollution mortality in China's cities' have used this methodology in their earlier China efforts.
36. All these values are found in the 2001 and 2002 statistical yearbooks. National Bureau of Statistics, Zhongguo tongji nianjian [China Statistical Yearbook] (Beijing: Zhongguo tongji chubanshe).
37. These are the numbers reported by G. K. Heilig, Can China Feed Itself? A System for Evaluating Policy Options, (1999). Available at the IIASA, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis website: http://www.iiasa.ac.at/Research/LUC/ChinaFood/data/pop/pop_7.htm.
38. World Bank, China: Air, Land, and Water.
39. x and CO', Atmospheric Environment 34, (2000), pp. 363-374
40. D. Van Vuuren, F. Zhou, B. de Vries, K. Jiang, C. Graveland and Y. Li, 'Energy and emission scenarios for China in the 21st Century - exploration of baseline development and mitigation options', Energy Policy 31, (2003), pp. 369-387
41. Li et al., 'Quantifying the human health benefits';
42. and Kan and Chen, 'Particulate air pollution in urban areas'.
43. World Bank, China: Air, Land, and Water.
44. K. S. Betts, 'China's pollution progress slows', Environmental Science and Technology 36, (2002), pp. 308A-309A makes the assertion shortly after the completion of the Ninth Five-Year Plan.
45. Subsequent supporting evidence suggesting some decline in environmental quality is from China Environmental Protection, Report on the State of the Environment in China 2002, Atmospheric Environment, (2003). English version available online at: http://www.zhb.gov.cn/english/SOE/ soechina2002/air.htm (accessed 7 May 2004).
46. Beijing Environmental Protection Bureau, EPB, 2002 Nian Beijing shi huanjing zhuangkuang gongbao [2002 Report on Environmental Conditions in Beijing], (2003). Available at the Beijing Environmental Protection Bureau website: http://www.bjepb.gov.cn/newhb/html/hjgb/hjzkgb/ 2002gb.htm (accessed 16 June 2003).
47. S. Stares and Z. Liu, 'Motorization in Chinese cities: Issues and actions', in S. Stares and Z. Liu, eds, China's Urban Transport Development Strategy: Proceedings of a Symposium in Beijing, 8-10 November 1995, World Bank Development Paper No. 352, pp. 43-104
48. World Bank, China: Air, Land, and Water
49. Fu et al., 'Assessment of vehicular pollution in China'
50. and B. Dolven, 'China. The environment - the great car crush', Far Eastern Economic Review, (dated 27 November 2003 and accessed electronically via Factiva) all note that Chinese vehicles are more polluting. Fu et al. also note the tendency to fail inspections.
51. Chinese media periodically mention forthcoming pollution standards. Two such announcements can be found in: 'Shanghai to adopt tougher auto emission standards', China Daily, (2003) [available at: http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/en/doc/2003-01/29/content_153283.htm (accessed 24 June 2004)]
52. and 'Nation sets to put brakes on auto industry', China Daily, [available at: http://www1.chinadaily.com.cn/en/doc/2003-09/10/ content_262847.htm (accessed 28 October 2003)].
53. x emissions for passenger cars and most commercial vehicles. (Required reductions from diesel engines are generally smaller.) Absent of any systematically quantifiable information on driving patterns, we implicitly assume that an increase in the number of automobiles leads to an equivalent increase in miles driven and emissions.
54. However, anecdotal evidence from some cities and H. Zhou and D. Sperling, 'Traffic emission pollution sampling and analysis on urban streets with high-rising buildings', Transportation Research Part D 6, (2001), pp. 269-281, suggest that urban traffic jams lead to a decrease in miles driven but increased emissions as vehicles idle in traffic.
55. Studies placing historical and projected vehicle growth rates in the range between 10 and 29% include Ye et al., 'Toxicity and health effects of vehicle emissions in Shanghai'
56. Fu et al., 'Assessment of vehicular pollution in China'
57. and World Bank, China: Air, Land, and Water.
58. Other, recent news media reports of historical patterns include 'Nation sets to put brakes on', China Daily
59. Dolven, 'China. The environment - the great car crush'
60. M. Dorgan, 'An emerging auto market: Great leap of China', Detroit FreePress, (13 March 2003) [available online at: http://www.freep.com/ money/autonews/china13_20030313.htm (accessed 17 June 2003)]
61. and E. Baculinao, 'Engines revving as China goes car crazy', NBC News, (2004) [available online at: http://www.msnbc.com/id/517580/ (accessed 15 June 2004)].
62. Recently reported sales for the past couple of years have covered a wider range of increases, approaching 80% or more. Some of these recent reports include 'Nation sets to put brakes on', China Daily
63. Baculinao, 'Engines revving as China goes car crazy'
64. and C.-C. Ni, 'China's new love of cars can be a fatal attraction', Los Angeles Times, (22 May 2004) (available online at: http://www.latimes.com/la-fg-cars22may22,1,2999222.story).
65. See Beijing Environmental Protection, 2002 Report on Environmental Conditions in Beijing.
66. Two international examples are A. Krupnick, K. Harrison, E. Nickell and M. Toman, The Benefits of Ambient Air Quality Improvements in Central and Eastern Europe: A Preliminary Assessment, Resources for the Future discussion paper #ENR93-19 (Washington, DC: Resources for the Future, 1993)
67. and B. D. Ostro, Estimating the Health Effect of Air Pollutants: A Method with an Application to Jakarta, World Bank Policy Research Working Paper #1301 (Washington, DC: World Bank, 1994).
68. Many previous China studies including World Bank, Clear Water, Blue Skies
69. Peng et al., 'Urban air quality and health in China'
70. Kan et al., 'An evaluation of public health impact'
71. Kan and Chen, 'Particulate air pollution in urban areas'
72. and Li et al., 'Quantifying the human health benefits' also use international health studies to varying degrees in their China focused studies.
73. A. Alberini and A. Krupnick, 'Air pollution and acute respiratory illness: Evidence from Taiwan and Los Angeles', American Journal of Agricultural Economics 79, (1997), pp. 1620-1624.
74. M. L. Cropper, N. B. Simon, A. Alberini, S. Arora and P. K. Sharma, 'The health benefits of air pollution control in Delhi', American Journal of Agricultural Economics 79, (1997), pp. 1625-1629.
75. US Environmental Protection Agency, The Benefits and Costs of the Clean Air Act, 1970 to 1990 [Report] (Washington, DC: US EPA, 1997).
76. For a review of this literature, see Ibid.
77. Z. Xu, D. Yu, L. Jing and X. Xu, 'Air pollution and daily mortality in Shenyang, China', Archives of Environmental Health 55, (2000), pp. 115-120.
78. P. Fischer, G. Hoek, B. Brunekreef, A. Verhoeff and J. Van Wijnen, 'Air pollution and mortality in the Netherlands: Are the elderly more at risk?', European Respiratory Journal 21(Supplement 40), (2003), pp. 34s-38s
79. G. Hoek, B. Brunelkreef, A. Verhoeff, J. Van Wijnen and P. Fischer, 'Daily mortality and air pollution in the Netherlands', Journal of the Air & Waste Management Association 50, (2000), pp. 1380-1389
80. S. Vedal, M. Brauer, R. White and J. Petkau, 'Air pollution and daily mortality in a city with low levels of pollution', Environmental Health Perspectives 111, (2003), pp. 45-51
81. C.-M. Wong, S. Ma, A. J. Hedley and T.-H. Lam, 'Effect of air pollution on daily mortality in Hong Kong', Environmental Health Perspectives 109, (2001), pp. 335-340
82. and T. M. Wong, W. S. Tam, T.S. Yu and A. H. S. Wong, 'Associations between daily mortalities from respiratory and cardiovascular diseases and air pollution in Hong Kong, China', Occupational and Environmental Medicine 59, (2002), pp. 30-35.
83. D. M. Stieb, S. Judek and R. T. Burnett, 'Meta-analysis of time-series studies of air pollution and mortality: Effects of gases and particles and the influence of cause of death, age, and season', Journal of the Air & Waste Management Association 52, (2002), pp. 470-484.
84. H. Kan and B. Chen, 'Air pollution and daily mortality in Shanghai: A time-series study', Archives of Environmental Health 58, (2003), pp. 360-367
85. and H. Kan and B. Chen, 'A case-crossover analysis of air pollution and daily mortality in Shanghai', Journal of Occupational Health 45, (2003), pp. 119-124. The first study uses a time-series methodology, while in the second, the same authors employ a case-crossover approach to assess the association between various pollutants and daily mortality. The two studies differ in their basic methodologies: The time-series study follows an entire population under various exposure conditions, while the case-crossover design only considers affected parts of a population and their exposures relative to a typical, or baseline, level of exposure. Taken together, these two studies can provide a more robust estimate of the association between pollution and premature death than either method alone.
86. S. A. Bremner, H. R. Anderson, R.W. Atkinson, A. J. McMichael, D. P. Strachan, J. M. Bland and J. S. Bower, 'Short term associations between outdoor air pollution and mortality in London 1992-4', Occupational and Environmental Medicine 56, (1999), pp. 237-44
87. E. Cadum, G. Rossi, D. Mirabelli, M.A. Vigottie, P. Natale, L. Albano, G. Mardii, V. Di Meo, R. Cristofani, and G. Costa, 'Air Pollution and Dairy Mortality in Turin, 1991-1996', Epidemiologia e Prevensione, 23, 1999, pp. 268-276 [Article in Italian].
88. 'Air pollution and daily mortality in Turin'
89. W. H. Roemer and J. H. van Wijnen, 'Daily mortality and air pollution along busy streets in Amsterdam, 1987-1998', Epidemiology 12, (2001), pp. 649-653
90. Wong et al., 'Associations between daily mortalities from respiratory and cardiovascular diseases and air pollution in Hong Kong'
91. C.-M. Wong et al., 'Effect of air pollution on daily mortality in Hong Kong'
92. A. Zeghnoun, P. Czernichow, P. Beaudeau, A. Hautemaniere, L. Froment, A. Le Tertre and P. Quenel, 'Short-term effects of air pollution on mortality in the cities of Rouen and Le Havre, France, 1990-1995', Archives of Environmental Health 56, (2001), pp. 327-335.
93. This assessment includes both market-based (hedonic) studies and survey-based (contingent valuation) studies. See C. Dockins, K. Maguire, N. Simon and M. Sullivan, Value of Statistical Life Analysis and Environmental Policy: A White Paper for Presentation to Science Advisory Board-Environmental Economics Advisory Committee, Final Report (National Center for Environmental Economics, US EPA, 2004).
94. With an income elasticity of one, if income were to increase by, say, 10%, so would the WTP for improved health.
95. L. G. Chestnut, B. D. Ostro and N. Vichit-Vadakan, 'Transferability of air pollution control health benefits estimates from the United States to developing countries: Evidence from the Bangkok study', American Journal of Agricultural Economics 79, (1997), pp. 1630-1635.
96. A. Alberini and A. Krupnick, 'Air quality and episodes of acute respiratory illness in Taiwan cities: Evidence from survey data', Journal of Urban Economics 44, (1998), pp. 68-92
97. and A. Alberini and A. Krupnick, 'Cost-ofillness and willingness-to-pay estimates of the benefits of improved air quality: Evidence from Taiwan', Land Economics 76, (2000), pp. 37-53.
98. B. J. Bowland and J. C. Beghin, 'Robust estimates of value of a statistical life for developing economies', Journal of Policy Modeling 23, (2001), pp. 385-396.
99. The Mexico City study is World Bank, 'Improving air quality in metropolitan Mexico City: An economic valuation', Policy Research Working Paper, WPS 2785 (2002) and uses the α-WTP of 0.40 for deriving its mid-range value of life.
100. The α-WTP of 0.32 for Singapore is from E. Quah and T. L. Boon, 'The economic cost of particulate air pollution on health in Singapore', Journal of Asian Economics 14, (2003), pp. 73-90.
101. Y. Zhou and J. K. Hammitt, The Economic Value of Air-pollution-related Health Risks in China: A Contingent Valuation Study, Report prepared for the Center for Risk Analysis (Harvard School of Public Health, 2003).
102. The US and China GDP numbers were obtained from World Bank, World Development Indicators Database (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2001).
103. Zhou and Hammitt, 'The economic value of air-pollution-related health risks in China'.
104. The high value is from Bowland and Beghin, 'Robust estimates of value of a statistical life'. The low value is from Quah and Boon, 'The economic cost of particulate air pollution on health in Singapore'.
105. National Bureau of Statistics, China Statistical Yearbook.
106. 2 or TSP-related deaths to offset.
107. Mead and Brajer, 'Protecting China's children'.
108. X. Xu, D. W. Dockery and L. H. Wang, 'Effects of air pollution on adult pulmonary function', Archives of Environmental Health 46, (1991), pp. 198-206.