Long-term demographic fluctuations in an orchid species driven by weather: Implications for conservation planning

Journal of Applied Ecology

Volumn 43, Issue 2, 2006, Pages 313-324

  Pfeifer, Marion ^a   Wiegand, Kerstin ^a   Heinrich, Wolfgang ^a   Jetschke, Gottfried ^a  

^a FRIEDRICH SCHILLER UNIVERSITY JENA   (Germany)

Author keywords

Climate change; Conservation; Long term predictions; Protected species; PVA

Indexed keywords

ANGIOSPERM; CLIMATE EFFECT; DEMOGRAPHIC TREND; ENDANGERED SPECIES; GLOBAL CLIMATE; GROWTH RATE; LIFE HISTORY TRAIT; MANAGEMENT PRACTICE; MATRIX; NATURE RESERVE; POPULATION DYNAMICS; POPULATION GROWTH; REPRODUCTIVE STATUS; SPECIES CONSERVATION; WINTER;

CENTRAL EUROPE; EURASIA; EUROPE; GERMANY;

HIMANTOGLOSSUM HIRCINUM; MAGNOLIOPHYTA; ORCHIDACEAE;

EID: 33744948191     PISSN: 00218901     EISSN: 13652664     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1111/j.1365-2664.2006.01148.x     Document Type: Article

References (57)

1. Andrewartha H.G. Birch L.C. 1984 The Ecological Web. University of Chicago Press, Chicago IL.
2. Batty A.L. Dixon K.W. Brundrett M. Sivasitharnpararn K. 2001 Constraints to symbiotic germination of terrestrial orchid seed in a mediterranean bushland. New Phytologist, 152, 511 520.
3. Beissinger S.R. Westphal M.I. 1998 On the use of demographic models of population viability in endangered species management. Journal of Wildlife Management, 62, 821 841.
4. Boyce M. 1992 Population viability analysis. Annual Review of Ecology and Systematics, 23, 481 506.
5. Brook B.W. O'Grady J.J. Chapman A.P. Burgman M.A. Akcakaya H.R. Frankham R. 2000 Predictive accuracy of population viability analysis in conservation biology. Nature, 404, 385 387.
6. Brys R. Jacquemyn H. Endels P. de Blust G. Hermy M. 2004 The effects of grassland management on plant performance and demography in the perennial herb Primula veris. Journal of Applied Ecology, 41, 1080 1091.
7. Carey P.D. 1996 DISPERSE: A cellular automaton for predicting the distribution of species in a changed climate. Global Ecology and Biogeography Letters, 5, 217 226.
8. Carey P.D. 1998 Modelling the spread of Himantoglossum hircinum (L.) Spreng. at a site in the south of England. Botanical Journal of the Linnean Society, 126, 159 172.
9. Carey P.D. 1999 Changes in the distribution and abundance of Himantoglossum hircinum (L.) Sprengel (Orchidaceae) over the last 100 years. Watsonia, 22, 353 364.
10. Carey P.D. Farrell L. 2002 Himantoglossum hircinum (L.) Sprengel. Journal of Ecology, 90, 206 218.
11. Carey P.D. Farrell L. Stewart N.F. 2002 The sudden increase in the abundance of Himantoglossum hircinum in England in the past decade and what has caused it. Trends and Fluctuations and Underlying Mechanisms in Terrestrial Orchid Populations (eds P. Kindlmann J.H. Willems D. Whigham, pp. 187 208. Backhuys, Leiden, the Netherlands.
12. Caswell H. 1982 Stable population structure and reproductive value for populations with complex life cycles. Ecology, 63, 1223 1231.
13. Caswell H. 1989 Matrix Population Models. Sinauer, Sunderland, MA.
14. Coulson T. Mace G.M. Hudson E. Possingham H. 2001 The use and abuse of population viability analysis. Trends in Ecology and Evolution, 16, 219 221.
15. Ehrlén J. Syrjänen K. Leimu R. Garcia M.B. Lehtilä K. 2005 Land use and population growth of Primula veris: an experimental demographic approach. Journal of Applied Ecology, 42, 317 326.
16. Ellner S.P. Fieberg J. Ludwig D. Wilcox C. 2002 Precision of population viability analysis. Conservation Biology, 16, 258 261.
17. Enright N.J. Franco M. Silvertown J. 1995 Comparing plant life histories using elasticity analysis: the importance of life span and the number of life-cycle stages. Oecologia, 104, 79 84.
18. Fieberg J. Ellner S.P. 2001 Stochastic matrix models for conservation and management: a comparative review of methods. Ecology Letters, 4, 244 266.
19. Freckleton R.P. Silva Matos D.M. Bovi M.L.A. Watkinson A.R. 2003 Predicting the impacts of harvesting using structured population models: the importance of density-dependence and timing of harvesting for a tropical palm tree. Journal of Applied Ecology, 40, 846 858.
20. Gillman M.P. Dodd M. 2000 Detection of delayed density dependence in an orchid population. Journal of Ecology, 88, 204 212.
21. Good R. 1936 On the distribution of lizard orchid (Himantoglossum hircinum Koch). New Phytologist, 35, 142 170.
22. Grigulis K. Sheppard A.W. Ash J.E. Groves R.H. 2001 The comparative demography of the pasture weed Echium plantagineum between its native and invaded ranges. Journal of Applied Ecology, 38, 281 290.
23. Guardia R. Raventos J. Caswell H. 2000 Spatial growth and population dynamics of a perennial tussock grass (Achnatherum calamagrostis) in a badland area. Journal of Ecology, 88, 950 963.
24. Hayward G.D. McDonald D.B. 1997 Matrix population models as a tool in development of habitat models. Biology and Conservation of Owls of the Northern Hemisphere (eds J.R. Duncan D.H. Johnson T.H. Nicholls, pp. 205 212. General Technical Report NC-190. US Forest Service, Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada.
25. Hegland S.J. van Leeuwen M. Oostermeijer J.G.B. 2001 Population structure of Salvia pratensis in relation to vegetation and management of Dutch dry floodplain grasslands. Journal of Applied Ecology, 38, 1277 1289.
26. Heinrich W. 2000 Die Bocks-Riemenzunge (Himantoglossum hircinum) - Langzeitbeobachtungen auf markierten Dauerflächen. Heimische Orchideen. Artenmonitoring und Langzeitbeobachtung, Populationsdynamik und Artenschutz (ed. Arbeitskreis Heimische Orchideen, pp. 36 48. Uhlstädt, Germany.
27. Heinrich W. Voelckel H. 1999 Die Bocks-Riemenzunge [Himantoglossum hircinum (L.) Spreng.]- Orchidee des Jahres 1999. Berichte Aus den Arbeitskreisen für Heimische Orchideen, 16, 83 123.
28. Hood G. 2004 Poptools, Version 2·6·2. http://www.cse.csiro. au/poptools, Accessed 2 April 2004. CSIRO, Canberra, Australia.
29. Hunt L.P. 2001 Heterogeneous grazing causes local extinction of edible perennial shrubs: a matrix analysis. Journal of Applied Ecology, 38, 238 252.
30. Hutchings M.J. Mendoza A. Havers W. 1998 Demographic properties of an outlier population of Orchis militaris L. (Orchidaceae) in England. Botanical Journal of the Linnean Society, 126, 95 107.
31. Inghe O. 1990 Computer simulations of flowering rhythms in perennials: is there a new area to explore in the quests for chaos? Journal of Theoretical Biology, 14, 449 469.
32. Inghe O. Tamm C.O. 1988 Survival and flowering of perennial herbs. V. Patterns of flowering. Oikos, 51, 203 219.
33. Kéry M. Gregg K.B. 2003 Effects of life-state on detectability in a demographic study of the terrestrial orchid Cleistes bifaria. Journal of Ecology, 91, 265 273.
34. Kindlmann P. Balounova Z. 1999 Flowering regimes of terrestrial orchids: unpredictability or regularity? Journal of Vegetation Science, 10, 269 273.
35. Kluge G. Müller-Westermeier G. 2000 Das Klima ausgewählter Orte der Bundesrepublik Deutschland: Jena. Berichte des Deutschen Wetterdienstes No. 213. Deutscher Wetterdienst, Offenbach, Germany.
36. de Kroon H. Plaiser A. van Groenendael J. Caswell H. 1986 Elasticity: the relative contribution of demographic parameters to population growth rate. Ecology, 67, 1427 1431.
37. Lindenmayer D.B. Possingham H.P. 1996 Ranking conservation and timber management options for Leadbeater's possum in southeastern Australia using population viability analysis. Conservation Biology, 10, 235 251.
38. Mac Nally R. 2000 Regression and model-building in conservation biology, biogeography and ecology: The distinction between and reconciliation of 'redictive' and 'explanatory' models. Biodiversity and Conservation, 9, 655 671.
39. McCarthy M.A. Andelman S.J. Possingham H.P. 2003 Reliability of relative predictions in population viability analysis. Conservation Biology, 17, 982 989.
40. McCarty J.P. 2001 Ecological consequences of recent climate change. Conservation Biology, 15, 320 331.
41. Mills L.S. Smouse P.E. 1994 Demographic consequences of inbreeding in remnant populations. American Naturalist, 144, 412 431.
42. Milne A. 1962 On the theory of natural control of insect population. Journal of Theoretical Biology, 3, 19 50.
43. Morris W.F. Bloch P.L. Hudgens B.R. Moyle L.C. Stinchcombe J.R. 2002 Population viability analysis in endangered species recovery plans: past use and future improvements. Ecological Applications, 12, 708 712.
44. Oostermeijer J.G.B. Brugman M.L. den Boer E.R. den Nijs H.C.M. 1996 Temporal and spatial variation in the demography of Gentiana pneumonanthe, a rare perennial herb. Journal of Ecology, 84, 153 166.
45. Parmesan C. Ryrholm N. Stefanescus C. Hill J.K. Thomas C.D. Descimon H. Huntley B. Kaila L. Killberg J. Tammaru T. Tennent W.J. Thomas J.A. Warren M. 1999 Poleward shifts in geographical ranges of butterfly species associated with regional warming. Nature, 399, 579 583.
46. Pearson R.G. Dawson T.P. 2003 Predicting the impacts of climate change on the distribution of species: are bioclimate envelope models useful? Global Ecology and Biogeography, 12, 361 371.
47. Pfeifer M. Heinrich W. Jetschke G. 2006 Climate, size, and flowering history determine flowering pattern of an orchid. Botanical Journal of the Linnean Society, 2006.
48. Rasmussen H.N. Whigham D. 1998 The underground phase: a special challenge in studies of terrestrial orchid populations. Botanical Journal of the Linnean Society, 126, 49 64.
49. Tamm C.O. 1991 Behaviour of some orchid populations in a changing environment. Observations on permanent plots, 1943-90. Population Ecology of Terrestrial Orchids (eds T.C.E. Wells J.H. Willems, pp. 1 14. SPB Publishing, The Hague, the Netherlands.
50. Turchin P. 1990 Rarity of density dependence or population regulation with lags. Nature, 344, 660 662.
51. Valverde T. Silvertown J. 1998 Variation in the demography of a woodland understorey herb (Primula vulgaris) along the forest regeneration cycle. projection matrix analysis. Journal of Ecology, 86, 545 562.
52. Waite S. Hutchings M.J. 1991 The effects of different management regimes on the population dynamics of Ophrys sphegodes: analysis and description using matrix models. Population Ecology of Terrestrial Orchids (eds T.C.E. Wells J. H. Willems, pp. 161 175. SPB Publishing, The Hague, the Netherlands.
53. Wells T.C.E. Cox R. 1991 Demographic and biological studies on Ophrys apifera: some results from a 10 years study. Population Ecology of Terrestrial Orchids (eds T.C.E. Wells J.H. Willems, pp. 47 62. SPB Publishing, The Hague, the Netherlands.
54. Wells T.C.E. Rothey P. Cox R. Bamford S. 1998 Flowering dynamics of Orchis morio L. and Herminium monorchis (L.) R.Br. at two sites in eastern England. Botanical Journal of the Linnean Society, 126, 39 48.
55. Werner P.A. 1975 Predictions of fate from rosette size in teasel (Dipsacus fullonum L.). Oecologia, 20, 197 201.
56. Willems J.H. Bik L. 1991 Long-term dynamics in a population of Orchis simia in the Netherlands. Population Ecology of Terrestrial Orchids (eds T.C.E. Wells J.H. Willems, pp. 33 45. SPB Publishing, The Hague, the Netherlands.
57. Wills C. Condit R. Foster R.B. Hubbell S.P. 1997 Strong density- and diversity-related effects help to maintain tree species diversity in a neotropical forest. Proceedings of the National Academy of Science USA, 94, 1252 1257.