Predictability of extratropical cyclones: The influence of initial condition and model uncertainties

Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences

Volumn 63, Issue 5, 2006, Pages 1483-1497

  Zhu, Hongyan ^a   Thorpe, Alan ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF READING   (United Kingdom)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

ERRORS; MATHEMATICAL MODELS; PERTURBATION TECHNIQUES; WEATHER FORECASTING;

FORECAST ERROR GROWTH;

STORMS;

ERRORS; MATHEMATICAL MODELS; PERTURBATION TECHNIQUES; STORMS; WEATHER FORECASTING;

CLIMATE MODELING; EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS; FORECASTING METHOD; TROPICAL CYCLONE; WEATHER FORECASTING;

EID: 33744492872     PISSN: 00224928     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.bmc.2005.10.003     Document Type: Article

References (40)

1. Arakawa, A., 1972: Design of the UCLA general circulation model: Numerical simulation of weather and climate. Tech. Rep. 7, Dept. of Meteorology, University of California, Los Angeles, 116 pp.
2. Arakawa, A., and V. Lamb, 1977: Computational design of the basic dynamical processes of the UCLA general circulation model. Methods in Computational Physics, Vol. 17, J. Chang, Ed., Academic Press, 173-265.
3. Arakawa, A., and M. J. Suarez, 1983: Vertical differencing of the primitive equations in sigma coordinates. Mon. Wea. Rev., 111, 34-45.
4. Arakawa, A., and S. Moorthi, 1988: Baroclinic instability in vertically discrete systems. J. Atmos. Sci., 45, 1688-1707.
5. Arakawa, A., and C. S. Konor, 1996: Vertical differencing of the primitive equations based on the Charney-Phillips grid in hybrid σ - p vertical coordinates. Mon. Wea. Rev., 124, 511-528.
6. Badger, J., and B. Hoskins, 2001: Simple initial value problems and mechanisms for baroclinic growth. J. Atmos. Sci., 58, 38-49.
7. Buizza, R., J. Barkmeijer, T. Palmer, and D. Richardson, 1999: Current status and future developments of the ECMWF ensemble prediction system. Meteor. Appl., 6, 1-14.
8. Charney, J. G., and N. A. Phillips, 1953: Numerical integration of the quasi-geostrophic equations for barotropic and simple baroclinic flows. J. Meteor., 10, 71-99.
9. Cullen, M. J. P., T. Davies, M. H. Mawson, J. A. James, S. C. Coulter, and A. Malcolm, 1997: An overview of numerical methods for the next generation U.K. NWP and climate model. Numerical Methods in Atmospheric and Ocean Modelling: The Andre J. Robert Memorial Volume, C. A. Lin, R. Laprise, and H. Ritchie, Eds., Canadian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society, 425-444.
10. Davis, C. A., and K. A. Emanuel, 1991: Potential vorticity diagnosis of cyclogenesis. Mon. Wea. Rev., 119, 1929-1952.
11. Downton, R. A., and R. S. Bell, 1988: The impact of analysis differences on a medium-range forecast. Meteor. Mag., 117, 279-285.
12. Eady, E. T., 1949: Long waves and cyclone waves. Tellus, 1, 33-52.
13. Farrell, B. F., 1982: The initial growth of disturbances in a baroclinic flow. J. Atmos. Sci., 39, 1663-1686.
14. Farrell, B. F., 1984: Modal and non-modal baroclinic waves. J. Atmos. Sci., 41, 1663-1686.
15. Harrison, M. S. J., T. Palmer, D. S. Richardson, and R. Buizza, 1999: Analysis and model dependencies in medium-range ensembles: Two transplant case studies. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 125, 2487-2515.
16. Hollingsworth, A., 1995: A spurious mode in the "Lorenz" arrangement of ø and T which does not exist in the "Charney-Phillips" arrangement. ECMWF Tech. Memo. 211, 12 pp.
17. Lorenz, E. N., 1960: Energy and numerical weather prediction. Tellus, 12, 364-373.
18. Lorenz, E. N., 1963: Deterministic nonperiodic flow. J. Atmos. Sci., 20, 130-141.
19. Lorenz, E. N., 1989: Effects of analysis and model errors on routine weather forecasts. Proc. ECMWF Seminars on Ten Years of Medium-Range Weather Forecasting, Reading, United Kingdom, ECMWF, 115-128.
20. Lorenz, E. N., 1995: Predictability - A problem partly solved. Proc. ECMWF Seminars on Predictability, Reading, United Kingdom, ECMW, 1-18.
21. Molteni, F., R. Buizza, T. N. Palmer, and T. Petroliagis, 1996: The new ECMWF ensemble prediction system: Methodology and validation. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 122, 73-119.
22. Nicolis, C., 2003: Dynamics of model error: Some generic features. J. Atmos. Sci., 60, 2208-2218.
23. Orrell, D., L. Smith, J. Barkmeijer, and T. Palmer, 2001: Model error in weather forecasting. Nonlinear Processes Geophys., 9, 357-371.
24. Palmer, T., 1999: A nonlinear dynamical perspective on climate prediction. J. Climate, 12, 575-591.
25. Palmer, T., 2000: Predicting uncertainty in forecasts of weather and climate. Reports on Progress in Physics, Vol. 63, Institute of Physics Publishing, 71-116.
26. Rotunno, R., and J. Bao, 1996: A case study of cyclogenesis using a model hierarchy. Mon. Wea. Rev., 124, 1051-1066.
27. Rotunno, R., W. C. Skamarock, and C. Snyder, 1994: An analysis of frontogenesis in numerical simulations of baroclinic waves. J. Atmos. Sci., 51, 3373-3398.
28. Richardson, D. S., 1997: The relative effect of model and analysis differences on ECMWF and UKMO operational forecasts. Proc. ECMWF Workshop on Predictability, Reading, United Kingdom, ECMWF, 363-372.
29. Simmons, A. J., and D. M. Burridge, 1981: An energy- and angular-momentum-conserving vertical finite-difference scheme and hybrid vertical coordinates. Mon. Wea. Rev., 109, 758-766.
30. Smith, R., W. Ulrich, and G. Dietachmaye, 1990: A numerical study of tropical cyclone motion using a barotropic model. Part I. The role of vortex asymmetries. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 116, 337-362.
31. Snyder, C., T. Hamill, and S. Trier, 2003: Linear evolution of error covariances in a quasigeostrophic model. Mon. Wea. Rev., 131, 189-205.
32. Takayabu, I., 1991: "Coupling development": An efficient mechanism for the development of extra-tropical cyclones. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 69, 609-628.
33. Tan, Z., F. Zhang, R. Rotunno, and C. Snyder, 2004: Mesoscale predictability of moist baroclinic waves: Experiments with parameterized convection. J. Atmos. Sci., 61, 1794-1804.
34. Thompson, P., 1957: Uncertainty of initial state as a factor in the predictability of large scale atmospheric flow patterns. Tellus. 9, 275-295.
35. Tokioka, T., 1978: Some consideration on vertical differencing. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 56, 89-111.
36. Toth, Z., and E. Kalnay, 1993: Ensemble forecasting at NMC: The generation of perturbations. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 74, 2317-2330.
37. Vannitsem, S., and Z. Toth, 2002: Short-term dynamics of model errors. J. Atmos. Sci., 59, 2594-2604.
38. Wernli, H., R. Fehlmann, and D. Luethi, 1998: The effect of barotropic shear on upper-level induced cyclogenesis: Semigeostrophic and primitive equation numerical simulations. J. Atmos. Sci., 55, 2080-2094.
39. Zhu, H., and R. K. Smith, 2003: Effects of vertical differencing in a minimal hurricane model. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 129, 1051-1069.
40. Zhu, H., R. K. Smith, and W. Ulrich, 2001: A minimal three-dimensional tropical cyclone model. J. Atmos. Sci., 58, 1924-1944.