메뉴 건너뛰기




Volumn 13, Issue 1, 2006, Pages 1-24

Economists as experts: Overconfidence in theory and practice

Author keywords

Calibration; Economists; Experts; Overconfidence; Public policy; Russian reforms

Indexed keywords


EID: 33645159081     PISSN: 1350178X     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1080/13501780600566271     Document Type: Review
Times cited : (61)

References (65)
  • 1
    • 0020832934 scopus 로고
    • A study of economists' forecasts
    • Ahlers, D. and Lakonishok, J. (1983) 'A study of economists' forecasts', Management Science 29: 1113-25.
    • (1983) Management Science , vol.29 , pp. 1113-1125
    • Ahlers, D.1    Lakonishok, J.2
  • 3
    • 84858555447 scopus 로고
    • Eastern Europe: No alternative to shock therapy
    • 6 March
    • Åslund, A. (1992a) 'Eastern Europe: no alternative to shock therapy', Financial Times, 6 March, p. 19.
    • (1992) Financial Times , pp. 19
    • Åslund, A.1
  • 4
    • 84858555056 scopus 로고
    • Systemskiftet måste gå snabbare!
    • 30 May
    • Åslund, A. (1992b) 'Systemskiftet måste gå snabbare!', Dagens Nyheter, 30 May, p. A4.
    • (1992) Dagens Nyheter
    • Åslund, A.1
  • 5
    • 84858553043 scopus 로고
    • Kapitalismens triumf
    • 22 January
    • Åslund, A. (1993a) 'Kapitalismens triumf, Dagens Nyheter, 22 January, p. A4.
    • (1993) Dagens Nyheter
    • Åslund, A.1
  • 6
    • 0005317539 scopus 로고
    • The gradual nature of economic change in Russia
    • A. Åslund and R. Layard (eds), New York: St Martin's Press
    • Åslund, A. (1993b) 'The gradual nature of economic change in Russia', in A. Åslund and R. Layard (eds) Changing the Economic System in Russia, New York: St Martin's Press, pp. 19-38.
    • (1993) Changing the Economic System in Russia , pp. 19-38
    • Åslund, A.1
  • 7
    • 84937319157 scopus 로고
    • Russia's success story
    • Åslund, A. (1994) 'Russia's success story', Foreign Affairs 73: 58-71.
    • (1994) Foreign Affairs , vol.73 , pp. 58-71
    • Åslund, A.1
  • 9
    • 84858558846 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Rysk chockterapi lyckades
    • 28 July
    • Åslund, A. (1996) 'Rysk chockterapi lyckades', Dagens Nyheter, 28 July, p. A4.
    • (1996) Dagens Nyheter
    • Åslund, A.1
  • 10
    • 84858551652 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Svensk modell fara för Ryssland
    • 11 March
    • Åslund, A. (1997a) 'Svensk modell fara för Ryssland', Dagens Nyheter, 11 March, p. A4.
    • (1997) Dagens Nyheter
    • Åslund, A.1
  • 11
    • 84858559636 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Skär bort halva offentliga sektorn
    • 28 October
    • Åslund, A. (1997b) 'Skär bort halva offentliga sektorn', Dagens Nyheter, 28 October, p. A4.
    • (1997) Dagens Nyheter
    • Åslund, A.1
  • 12
    • 0005531143 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Why has Russia's economic transformation been so arduous?
    • paper 28-30 April, Washington DC: World Bank
    • Åslund, A. (1999a) 'Why has Russia's economic transformation been so arduous?', paper at Annual Bank Conference on Development Economics, 28-30 April, Washington DC: World Bank.
    • (1999) Annual Bank Conference on Development Economics
    • Åslund, A.1
  • 13
    • 84929812801 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Russia's collapse
    • Åslund, A. (1999b) 'Russia's collapse', Foreign Affairs 78: 64-77.
    • (1999) Foreign Affairs , vol.78 , pp. 64-77
    • Åslund, A.1
  • 14
    • 84858553360 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The bear turns bullish
    • Åslund, A. (2000a) 'The bear turns bullish', World Link, July/August, pp. 49-54.
    • (2000) World Link , vol.JULY-AUGUST , pp. 49-54
    • Åslund, A.1
  • 16
    • 84858551853 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • We did too little
    • 5 February
    • Åslund, A. (2001a) 'We did too little', Moscow Times, 5 February, p. 10.
    • (2001) Moscow Times , pp. 10
    • Åslund, A.1
  • 17
    • 0007372497 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The myth of output collapse after communism
    • Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
    • Åslund, A. (2001b) 'The myth of output collapse after communism', Carnegie Working Paper, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
    • (2001) Carnegie Working Paper
    • Åslund, A.1
  • 20
    • 33645156301 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • US known as nation that believes in law of the jungle
    • 9 March
    • Bhagwati, J. (1999) 'US known as nation that believes in law of the jungle', Financial Times, 9 March, p. 16.
    • (1999) Financial Times , pp. 16
    • Bhagwati, J.1
  • 21
    • 0025966234 scopus 로고
    • Overconfidence among physicians and nurses: The "micro-certainty, macro-uncertainty" phenomenon
    • Baumann, A.O., Deber, R.B. and Thompson, G.G. (1991) 'Overconfidence among physicians and nurses: the "micro-certainty, macro-uncertainty" phenomenon', Social Science and Medicine 32: 167-74.
    • (1991) Social Science and Medicine , vol.32 , pp. 167-174
    • Baumann, A.O.1    Deber, R.B.2    Thompson, G.G.3
  • 24
    • 17444416442 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The dirt on coming clean: Perverse effects of disclosing conflicts of interest
    • Cain, D.M., Loewenstein, G. and Moore, D.A. (2005) 'The dirt on coming clean: perverse effects of disclosing conflicts of interest', Journal of Legal Studies 34: 1-25.
    • (2005) Journal of Legal Studies , vol.34 , pp. 1-25
    • Cain, D.M.1    Loewenstein, G.2    Moore, D.A.3
  • 26
    • 0000510636 scopus 로고
    • Strategic information transmission
    • Crawford, V.P. and Sobel, J. (1982) 'Strategic information transmission', Econometrica 50: 1431-51.
    • (1982) Econometrica , vol.50 , pp. 1431-1451
    • Crawford, V.P.1    Sobel, J.2
  • 27
    • 0030101656 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The false consensus effect and overconfidence: Flaws in judgment or flaws in how we study judgment
    • Dawes, R.M. and Mulford, M. (1996) 'The false consensus effect and overconfidence: flaws in judgment or flaws in how we study judgment', Organizational Behavior and Decision Processes 65: 201-11.
    • (1996) Organizational Behavior and Decision Processes , vol.65 , pp. 201-211
    • Dawes, R.M.1    Mulford, M.2
  • 28
    • 0002653323 scopus 로고
    • What do economists know about the stock market?
    • De Bondt, W.F.M. (1991) 'What do economists know about the stock market?', Journal of Portfolio Management 17: 84-91.
    • (1991) Journal of Portfolio Management , vol.17 , pp. 84-91
    • De Bondt, W.F.M.1
  • 30
    • 0002871842 scopus 로고
    • Debiasing
    • D. Kahneman, P. Slovic and A. Tversky (eds), Cambridge: Cambridge University Press
    • Fischhoff, B. (1982) 'Debiasing', in D. Kahneman, P. Slovic and A. Tversky (eds) Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, pp. 422-44.
    • (1982) Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases , pp. 422-444
    • Fischhoff, B.1
  • 31
    • 0346140934 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Learning from experience: Coping with hindsight bias and ambiguity
    • J. Scott Armstrong (ed.), Boston: Kluwer
    • Fischhoff, B. (2001) 'Learning from experience: coping with hindsight bias and ambiguity', in J. Scott Armstrong (ed.) Principles of Forecasting: A Handbook for Researchers and Practitioners, Boston: Kluwer, pp. 543-54.
    • (2001) Principles of Forecasting: A Handbook for Researchers and Practitioners , pp. 543-554
    • Fischhoff, B.1
  • 33
    • 84953484366 scopus 로고
    • How to make cognitive illusions disappear: Beyond "heuristics and biases"
    • W. Stroebe and M. Hewstone (eds), New York: Wiley and Sons
    • Gigerenzer, G. (1991) 'How to make cognitive illusions disappear: beyond "heuristics and biases'", in W. Stroebe and M. Hewstone (eds) European Review of Social Psychology, vol. 2, New York: Wiley and Sons, pp. 83-115.
    • (1991) European Review of Social Psychology , vol.2 , pp. 83-115
    • Gigerenzer, G.1
  • 34
    • 0026234897 scopus 로고
    • Probabilistic mental models: A Brunswikian theory of confidence
    • Gigerenzer, G., Hoffrage, U. and Kleinbölting, H. (1991) 'Probabilistic mental models: a Brunswikian theory of confidence', Psychological Review 98: 506-28.
    • (1991) Psychological Review , vol.98 , pp. 506-528
    • Gigerenzer, G.1    Hoffrage, U.2    Kleinbölting, H.3
  • 35
    • 0042383698 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Uncertainty and overconfidence in time series forecasts: Application to the Standard and Poor's 500 stock index
    • Gordon, D.A. and Kammen, D.M. (1996) 'Uncertainty and overconfidence in time series forecasts: application to the Standard and Poor's 500 stock index', Applied Financial Economics 6: 189-98.
    • (1996) Applied Financial Economics , vol.6 , pp. 189-198
    • Gordon, D.A.1    Kammen, D.M.2
  • 36
    • 44049114641 scopus 로고
    • The weighing of evidence and the determinants of confidence
    • Griffin, D. and Tversky, A. (1992) 'The weighing of evidence and the determinants of confidence', Cognitive Psychology 24: 411-35.
    • (1992) Cognitive Psychology , vol.24 , pp. 411-435
    • Griffin, D.1    Tversky, A.2
  • 37
  • 38
    • 84951069189 scopus 로고
    • Assessing uncertainty in physical constants
    • Henrion, M. and Fischhoff, B. (1986) 'Assessing uncertainty in physical constants', American Journal of Physics 54: 791-7.
    • (1986) American Journal of Physics , vol.54 , pp. 791-797
    • Henrion, M.1    Fischhoff, B.2
  • 40
  • 41
    • 33645163774 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Premature capital openness broke Asia
    • 31 August
    • Khanna, V. (1998) 'Premature capital openness broke Asia', Business Times, 31 August, p. 10.
    • (1998) Business Times , pp. 10
    • Khanna, V.1
  • 43
    • 0033254078 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Unskilled and unaware of it: Difficulties in recognizing one's own incompetence lead to inflated self-assessments
    • Kruger, J. and Dunning, D. (1999) 'Unskilled and unaware of it: difficulties in recognizing one's own incompetence lead to inflated self-assessments', Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 77: 1121-34.
    • (1999) Journal of Personality and Social Psychology , vol.77 , pp. 1121-1134
    • Kruger, J.1    Dunning, D.2
  • 44
    • 0039647005 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Speculation duopoly with agreement to disagree: Can overconfidence survive the market test
    • Kyle, A.S. and Wang, A. (1997) 'Speculation duopoly with agreement to disagree: can overconfidence survive the market test', Journal of Finance 52: 2073-90.
    • (1997) Journal of Finance , vol.52 , pp. 2073-2090
    • Kyle, A.S.1    Wang, A.2
  • 48
    • 0002941732 scopus 로고
    • Calibration of probabilities: The state of the art to 1980
    • D. Kahneman, P. Slovic and A. Tversky (eds) (1982), Cambridge: Cambridge University Press
    • Lichtenstein, S., Fischhoff, B. and Phillips, L.D. (1982) 'Calibration of probabilities: the state of the art to 1980', in D. Kahneman, P. Slovic and A. Tversky (eds) (1982) Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, pp. 306-34.
    • (1982) Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases , pp. 306-334
    • Lichtenstein, S.1    Fischhoff, B.2    Phillips, L.D.3
  • 50
    • 33645162449 scopus 로고
    • If you're so smart ...
    • J.L. Auspitz, W.W. Gasparski, M.K. Mlicki and K. Szaniawski (eds), London: Transaction
    • McCloskey, D. (1992) 'If you're so smart ...', in J.L. Auspitz, W.W. Gasparski, M.K. Mlicki and K. Szaniawski (eds) Praxiologies and the Philosophy of Economics, London: Transaction, pp. 92-111.
    • (1992) Praxiologies and the Philosophy of Economics , pp. 92-111
    • McCloskey, D.1
  • 53
    • 0038089404 scopus 로고
    • Overconfidence in case-study judgments
    • D. Kahneman, P. Slovic and A. Tversky (eds) (1982), Cambridge: Cambridge University Press
    • Oskamp, S. (1982) 'Overconfidence in case-study judgments', in D. Kahneman, P. Slovic and A. Tversky (eds) (1982) Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, pp. 287-93.
    • (1982) Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases , pp. 287-293
    • Oskamp, S.1
  • 56
    • 0000004866 scopus 로고
    • Effects of decision importance on ability to generate warranted subjective uncertainty
    • Sieber, J.E. (1974) 'Effects of decision importance on ability to generate warranted subjective uncertainty', Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 30: 688-94.
    • (1974) Journal of Personality and Social Psychology , vol.30 , pp. 688-694
    • Sieber, J.E.1
  • 57
    • 0013136339 scopus 로고
    • Are we all less risky and more skillful than our fellow drivers?
    • Svenson, O. (1981) 'Are we all less risky and more skillful than our fellow drivers?', Acta Psychohgica 47: 143-8.
    • (1981) Acta Psychohgica , vol.47 , pp. 143-148
    • Svenson, O.1
  • 58
    • 0002727340 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The insider: What i learned at the world economic crisis
    • 17 & 24 April
    • Stiglitz, J. (2000) 'The insider: what I learned at the world economic crisis', New Republic, 17 & 24 April, pp. 56-60.
    • (2000) New Republic , pp. 56-60
    • Stiglitz, J.1
  • 60
    • 0033238814 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Theory-driven reasoning about plausible pasts and probable futures in world politics: Are we prisoners of our preconceptions?
    • Tetlock, P.E. (1999) 'Theory-driven reasoning about plausible pasts and probable futures in world politics: are we prisoners of our preconceptions?', American Journal of Political Science 43: 335-66.
    • (1999) American Journal of Political Science , vol.43 , pp. 335-366
    • Tetlock, P.E.1
  • 61
    • 33645164896 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Stiglitz misses elephant
    • 12 April
    • Wall Street Journal (2000) 'Stiglitz misses elephant', 12 April, p. A26.
    • (2000) Wall Street Journal


* 이 정보는 Elsevier사의 SCOPUS DB에서 KISTI가 분석하여 추출한 것입니다.