China, Japan and the scramble for Siberia

Survival

Volumn 48, Issue 1, 2006, Pages 163-178

  Goldstein, Lyle ^a   Kozyrev, Vitaly ^b,c  

^a US NAVAL WAR COLLEGE   (United States)

^b YALE UNIVERSITY   (United States)

^c MOSCOW STATE UNIVERSITY   (Russian Federation)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

EID: 33644619645     PISSN: 00396338     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1080/00396330600594355     Document Type: Article

References (22)

1. One need look no further than the Six-Party Talks on the North Korean nuclear question to see that Moscow is plainly the least important player.
2. This conclusion is based on the following assumptions: Up to 200 billion barrels in western Siberia, approximately 50bn barrels in eastern Siberia and 28bn barrels in the Russian Far East (Sakhalin, etc.). Cumulatively, therefore, eastern Russia may hold as much as 278bn barrels, exceeding the approximately 233bn barrels that may be found in the Caspian Basin. For comparative purposes, Iraq is thought to hold 112.5bn barrels of oil.
3. Author interviews during 2004-05 in Beijing and Shanghai.
4. On bipolarity in East Asia, see Robert S. Ross, 'The Geography of Peace', International Security 23, Spring 1999, pp. 81-118.
5. 'First Section of Eastern Pipeline to Be Completed in 2008 - Energy Minister', RIA Novosti, 30 May 2005, http://en.rian.ru/russia/20050530/ 40441079.html.
6. http://www.fpcj.jp/e/mres/japanbrief/jb_589.html.
7. http://gzt.ru/politics/2005/12/22/151531.html.
8. Russian economists estimate that petroleum consumption in China would reach the level of 450m tonnes much earlier than 2020. See, for example, N. Baikov and G. Bezmelnitzina, 'Mirovoye potrebleniye I proizvodstvo ervichnih resursov' [World Demand and Production of Primary Energy Resources], Mirovaya Ekonomika I Mezhdunarodniye Otnosheniya [World Economy and International Relations], No. 5, 2003, p. 50.
9. 'Zhong-Ri nengyuan boyi: Xuanze hezuo haishi xuanze duikang' [The Sino-Japanese Energy Gamble: Choosing Cooperation or Confrontation], Zhongguo Qingnian Bao, 1 July 2004, http://finance.beelink.com.cn/ 20040701/1618033.shtml.
10. Sun Zhuangshi, Zhong-Ya anquan he Afuhan wenti [Central Asian Security and the Afghan Question] (Beijing: World Knowledge Press, 2003), p. 275.
11. Ji Xing, Qi Xiaolin, Qian Jinlin and Li Li, 'Study of China's Oil Strategy', FBIS document no. CPP20040402000157.
12. Energy optimisation refers to the appropriateness or fit of various energy resources in a particular place and within a given industrial sector.
13. This entire paragraph is drawn from 'Quanwei zhuanjia jiedu nengyuan zhanlue youhua nengyuan jiegou feichang zhongyao' [Authoritative Experts Analyze the New Energy Strategy: Optimisation of the Energy Structure is Most Important], Jingji Cankao Bao, 14 July 2004, http://finance.beelink.com.cn/20040713/1628080.shtml.
14. 'Guojia zhanlue shiyou chubei jihua mingnian zai Zhenhai shuaixian dong' [The National Strategic Oil Reserve is Scheduled to to Start its Operation in Zhenhai Next Year], http://auto.sohu.com/20041012/ n222439012.shtml.
15. Feng Shaolei and Xiang Lanxin, Pujing waijiao [Putin's Foreign Policy] (Shanghai: Shanghai People's Press, 2004), p. 173.
16. This paragraph is drawn from Alexey A. Makarov, 'Russia's Resources in Asia', paper presented at the Taipei-Moscow Forum Roundtable, National Political University, Taiwan, 28 November 2004. A similar viewpoint is offered in 'Russia's Energy Strategy up to 2020', published in 2003 by the Energy Ministry at http://www.minprom.gov.ru/ministry/dep/energy/5/ 11. Alternatively, a view attributed to Gazprom suggests that European markets are still seen as more vital to Moscow than Asian ones.
17. Some analysts alternatively believe that western Siberian fields can boost production substantially.
18. Martin Fackler, 'Japan May Win Siberian Pipeline Deal', Wall Street Journal, 1 December 2004, A9.
19. President Putin quoted in 'Japan-Russia Summit Meeting (Overview)', 30 May 2003, http://www.mofa.go.jp/policy/economy/summit/2003/russia.html.
20. Wang Shuchun, Lengzhan hou de Zhong-E guanxi [Post-Cold War Relations Between China and Russia] (Beijing: Current Affairs Press, 2005), pp. 229-3.
21. James Brooke, 'The Asian Battle for Russia's Oil and Gas', New York Times, 3 January 2004, B1.
22. See, for example, Lyle Goldstein and William Murray, 'China Emerges as a Maritime Power', Jane's Intelligence Review, October 2004, pp. 34-8.