Did Illegal Overseas Absentee Ballots Decide the 2000 U.S. Presidential Election?

Perspectives on Politics

Volumn 2, Issue 3, 2004, Pages 537-549

  Imai, Kosuke ^a   King, Gary ^b  

^a PRINCETON UNIVERSITY   (United States)

^b HARVARD UNIVERSITY   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

EID: 33444464164     PISSN: 15375927     EISSN: 15410986     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1017/S1537592704040332     Document Type: Article

References (40)

1. C., Adolph, Christopher, G., King, Gary, Analyzing second-stage ecological regressions: Comment on Herron and Shotts, Political Analysis, (2003), 11, 1, 65-76
2. Adolph, Christopher, and Gary King, with Michael C. Herron, and Kenneth W. Shotts. 2003. A consensus on second-stage analyses in ecological inference models. Political Analysis 11 (1):86–94.
3. Anselin, Luc, and Wendy K. Tam Cho. 2002 a. Spatial effects and ecological inference. Political Analysis 10 (3):276–97.
4. Anselin, Luc, and Wendy K. Tam Cho 2002 b. Conceptualizing space: Reply. Political Analysis 10 (3):301–3.
5. Barbanel, Josh. 2001. How the ballots were examined. New York Times, July 15. http://www.nytimes.com/.
6. Barstow, David, and Don Van Natta Jr. 2001. How Bush took Florida: Mining the overseas absentee vote. New York Times, July 15. http://www.nytimes.com/.
7. Bartels, Larry M. 1997. Specification uncertainty and model averaging. American Journal of Political Science 41 (2):641–74.
8. Bartels, Larry M., and John Zaller. 2001. Presidential vote models: A recount. PS: Political Science and Politics 33 (1):9–20.
9. Berke, Richard L. 2001. Lieberman put Democrats in retreat on military vote.” New York Times, July 15. http://www.nytimes.com/.
10. Bishop, Christopher M. 1995. Neural Networks for Pattern Recognition. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
11. Chib, Siddhartha. 1995. Marginal likelihood from the Gibbs output. Journal of the American Statistical Association 90 (432):1313–21.
12. W.K.T., Cho, Wendy K. Tam, Iff the assumption fits …: A comment on the King ecological inference solution, Political Analysis, (1998), 7, 143-163
13. W.K.T., Cho, Wendy K. Tam, B.J., Gaines, Brian J., The limits of ecological inference: The case of split-ticket voting, American Journal of Political Science, (2004), 48, 1, 152-171
14. T.J., DiCiccio, Thomas J., R.E., Kass, Robert E., A.E., Raftery, Adrian E., L., Wasserman, Larry, Computing Bayes factors by combining simulation and asymptotic approximations, Journal of the American Statistical Association, (1997), 92, 439, 903-915
15. Duncan, Otis Dudley, and Beverly Davis. 1953. An alternative to ecological correlation. American Sociological Review 18 (6):665–66.
16. Erikson, Robert S., Joseph Bafumi, and Bret Wilson. 2001. Was the 2000 presidential election predictable? PS: Political Science and Politics 34 (4):815–19.
17. F., Fessenden, Ford, J.M., Broder, John M., New York Times, Study of disputed Florida ballots finds justices not cast the deciding vote, November 12, (2001)
18. D.A., Freedman, David A., S.P., Klein, Stephen P., M., Ostland, Michael, M.R., Roberts, Michael R., Review of, Journal of the American Statistical Association, December, (1998), 93, 1518-1522
19. Goodman, Leo. 1953. Ecological regressions and the behavior of individuals. American Sociological Review 18 (6):663–64.
20. Goodman, Leo 1959. Some alternatives to ecological correlation. American Journal of Sociology 64 (6):610–24.
21. M.C., Herron, Michael C., K.W., Shotts, Kenneth W., Using ecological inference point estimates as dependent variables in second-stage linear regressions, Political Analysis, (2003), 11, 1, 44-64
22. Herron, Michael C., and Kenneth W. Shotts 2003 b. Cross-contamination in EI-R: Reply. Political Analysis 11 (1):77–85.
23. Hoeting, Jennifer A., David Madigan, Adrian E. Raftery, and Chris T. Volinsky. 1999. Bayesian model averaging: A tutorial. Statistical Science 14 (4):382–417.
24. Kass, Robert E., and Adrian E. Raftery. 1995. Bayes factors. Journal of the American Statistical Association 90 (430):773–95.
25. R.E., Kass, Robert E., L., Tierney, Luke, J.B., Kadane, Joseph B., Approximate methods for assessing influence and sensitivity in Bayesian analysis, Biometrika, (1989), 76, 4, 663-674
26. G., King, Gary, A solution to the ecological inference problem: Reconstructing individual behavior from aggregate data, Princeton, Princeton University Press, (1997)
27. G., King, Gary, et al., The future of ecological inference research: A reply to Freedman et al, Journal of the American Statistical Association, March, (1999), 94, 352-355
28. G., King, Gary, Isolating spatial autocorrelation, aggregation bias, and distributional violations in ecological inference, Political Analysis, (2002), 10, 3, 298-300
29. King, Gary, Ori Rosen, and Martin A. Tanner, eds.2004. Ecological inference: New methodological strategies. New York: Cambridge University Press.
30. G., King, Gary, L., Zeng, Langche, When can history be our guide? The pitfalls of counterfactual inference, http://gking.harvard.edu, (2001)
31. Lebow, Richard Ned. 2000. What's so different about a counterfactual? World Politics 52 (4):550–85.
32. S.M., Lewis, Steven M., A.E., Raftery, Adrian E., Estimating Bayes factors via posterior simulation with the Laplace-Metropolis estimator, Journal of the American Statistical Association, (1997), 92, 438, 648-655
33. D., Madigan, David, A.E., Raftery, Adrian E., Model selection and accounting for model uncertainty in graphical models using Occam's window, Journal of the American Statistical Association, (1994), 89, 428, 1535-1546
34. Purdum, Todd S. 2000. Counting the vote: The overview. New York Times, November 27. http:// www.nytimes.com/.
35. A.E., Raftery, Adrian E., Markov chain Monte Carlo in practice: Interdisciplinary statistics, Hypothesis testing and model selection, W. R., Gilks, S., Richardson, D. J., Spiegelhalter, London, Chapman and Hall, (1996), 163-187
36. Raftery, Adrian E., and Yingye Zheng. 2003. Discussion: Performance of Bayesian model averaging. Journal of the American Statistical Association 98 (464):931–38.
37. C.P., Robert, Markov chain Monte Carlo in practice: Interdisciplinary statistics, Mixtures of distributions: inference and estimation, W. R., Gilks, S., Richardson, D. J., Spiegelhalter, London, Chapman and Hall, (1996), 441-464
38. O.W.J., Rosen, Ori; Wenxin Jiang, G., King, Gary, M.A., Tanner, Martin A., Bayesian and frequentist inference for ecological inference: The R × C case, Statistica Neerlandica, (2001), 55, 2, 134-156
39. Rosen, Ori, Wenxin Jiang, and Martin A. Tanner. 2000. Mixtures of marginal models. Biometrika 87 (2):391–404.
40. Zelnick, Bob. 2001. The myth of a stolen election (letter to the editor). Wall Street Journal, July 17.