Search for direct empirical spatial correlation signatures of the critical triggering earthquake model

Geophysical Journal International

Volumn 157, Issue 3, 2004, Pages 1233-1246

  Ouillon, G ^a   Sornette, D ^a,b  

^a UNIVERSITÉ CÔTE D'AZUR   (France)

^b UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA   (United States)

Author keywords

Accelerated seismicity; Critical earthquake; Earthquake forecast; Precursors

Indexed keywords

EARTHQUAKE MECHANISM; EARTHQUAKE PRECURSOR; MODELING; TRIGGER MECHANISM;

EID: 3142655908     PISSN: 0956540X     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1111/j.1365-246X.2004.02269.x     Document Type: Article

References (67)

1. Allègre, C.J., Le Mouel, J.L. & Provost, A., 1982. Scaling rules in rock fracture and possible implications for earthquake predictions, Nature, 297, 47-49.
2. Bai, TY.L., Ke, F.J., Xia, M.F., Zhang, X.H. & Jia, Z.K., 2003. Long-range stress re-distribution resulting from damage in heterogeneous media, Pure appl. Geophys. (in press), (http://www.quakes.uq.edu.au/ ACES/ACES-2002-workshop/PDF/page009-014.pdf)
3. Bouchaud, J.P., Cates, M.E. & Claudin, P., 1995. Stress distribution in granular media and nonlinear wave equation, J. Physique 1, 5, 639-656.
4. Bouchaud, J.P., Claudin, P., Levine, D. & Otto, M., 2001. Force chain splitting in granular materials: a mechanism for large-scale pseudo-elastic behaviour, Eur. Phys. J., 4, 451-457
5. Bowman, D.D. & King, G.C.P., 2001a. Accelerating seismicity and stress accumulation before large earthquakes, Geophys. Res. Lett., 28, 4039-4042.
6. Bowman, D.D. & King, G.C.P., 2001b. Stress transfer and seismicity changes before large earthquakes, C. R. Acad. Sci. Paris IIA, 333, 591-599.
7. Bowman, D. D., Ouillon, G., Sammis, C. G., Sornette, A. & Sornette, D., 1998. An observational test of the critical earthquake con-cept, J. geophys. Res., 103, 24 359-24 372.
8. Brehm, D.J. & Braile, L.W., 1998. Intermediate-term earthquake prediction using precursory events in the new Madrid seismic zone, Bull. seism. Soc. Am., 88, 564-580.
9. Brehm, D.J. & Braile, L.W., 1999. Intermediate-term earthquake prediction using the modified time-to-failure method in southern California, Bull. seism. Soc. Am., 89, 275-293.
10. Bufe, C.G. & Varnes, D.J., 1993. Predictive modeling of the seismic cycle of the greater San Francisco Bay region, J. geophys. Res., 98, 9871-9883.
11. Console, R. & Murru, M., 2001. A simple and testable model for earthquake clustering, J. geophys. Res., 166, 8699-8711.
12. Eguchi, T., 1998. A study on the background of the formation of 'doughnut pattern in seismicity' prior to a large interplate earthquake at subduction zones, Report of the National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention, No 58, Am. Soc. Civil Eng., New York, Congresses, pp. 47-52.
13. Gross, S. & Rundle, J., 1998. A systematic test of time-to-failure analysis, Geophys. J. Int., 133, 57-64.
14. Guarino, A., Ciliberto, S., Garcimartin, A., Zei, M. & Scorretti, R., 2002. Failure time and critical behaviour of fracture precursors in heterogeneous materials, Eur. Phys. J. B, 26, 141-151.
15. Helmstetter, A. & Sornette, D., 2002a. Sub-critical and supercritical regimes in epidemic models of earthquake aftershocks, J. geophys. Res., 107(B10), 2237, doi:10.1029/2001JB001580.
16. Helmstetter, A. & Sornette, D., 2002b. Diffusion of epicenters of earthquake aftershocks, Omori's law, and generalized continuous-time random walk models, Phys. Rev. E, 6606(6 Part 1), 1104, doi:10.1103/PhysRevE.66.061104.
17. Helmstetter, A., Ouillon, G. & Sornette, D., 2003a. Are aftershocks of large Californian earthquakes diffusing?, J. geophys. Rev., 108, 2483, doi:10.1029/2003JB002503.
18. Helmstetter, A., Sornette, D. & Grasso, J.-R., 2003b. Mainshocks are aftershocks of conditional foreshocks: how do foreshock statistical properties emerge from aftershock laws, J. geophys. Res., 108, 2046, doi:10.1029/2002JB001991.
19. Huang, Y., Saleur, H., Sammis, C.G. & Sornette, D., 1998. Precursors, aftershocks, criticality and self-organized criticality, Europhys. Lett., 41, 43-48.
20. Jaumé, S.C. & Sykes, L.R., 1999. Evolving toward a critical point: a review of accelerating seismic moment/energy release prior to large and great earthquakes, Pure,, appl. Geophys., 155, 279-306.
21. Johansen, A. & Sornette, D., 2000. Critical ruptures, Eur. Phys. J.,B 18, 163-181.
22. Johansen, A., Sornette, D., Wakita, G., Tsunogai, U., Newman, W.I. & Saleur, H., 1996. Discrete scaling in earthquake precursory phenomena: evidence in the Kobe earthquake, Japan, J. Physique I, 6, 1391-1402.
23. Johansen, A., Saleur, H. & Sornette, D., 2000. New Evidence of Earthquake Precursory Phenomena in the 17 Jan. 1995 Kobe Earthquake, Japan, Eur. Phys. J.,B 15, 551-555.
24. Jones, L.M. & Molnar, P., 1979. Some characteristics of foreshocks and their possible relationship to earthquake prediction and premonitory slip on fault, J. geophys. Res., 84, 3596-3608.
25. Kagan, Y.Y., 2003. Accuracy of modern global earthquake catalogs, Phys. Earth planet. Interiors, 135, 173-209.
26. Kagan, Y.Y. & Knopoff, L., 1981. Stochastic synthesis of earthquake catalogs, J. geophys. Res., 86, 2853-2862.
27. Keilis-Borok, V.I., 1990. The lithosphere of the earth as a nonlinear system with implications for earthquake prediction, Rev. Geophys., 28, 19-34.
28. Keilis-Borok, V.I. & Malinovskaya, L.N., 1964. One regularity in the occurrence of strong earthquakes, J. geophys. Res., 69, 3019-3024.
29. Keilis-Borok, V.I. & Soloviev, A.A., 2002. Nonlinear Dynamics of the Lithosphere and Earthquake Prediction, Springer, Heidelberg.
30. Knopoff, L., Levshina, T., Keilis-Borok, V. & Mattoni, C., 1996. Increased long-range intermediate-magnitude earthquake activity prior to strong earthquakes in California, J. geophys. Res., 101, 5779-5796.
31. Kun, F., Moreno, Y., Hidalgo, R.C. & Herrmann, H.J., Creep rupture has two universality classes, Europhys. Lett., 63(3), 347-353.
32. Mézard, M., Parisi, G. & Virasoro, M., 1987. Spin Glass Theory and Beyond, World Scientific, Singapore.
33. Mogi, K., 1969. Some features of recent seismic activity in and near Japan; 2. Activity before and after great earthquakes, Bull. Earthquake Res. Inst. (Tokyo), 47, 395-417.
34. Mora, P. & Place, D., 2002. Microscopic simulation of stress correlation evolution: implication for the critical point hypothesis for earthquakes, Pure appl. Geophys., 159, 2413-2427.
35. Mora, P., Place, D., Abe, S. & Jaumé, S., 2000. Lattice solid simulation of the physics of earthquakes: the model, results and directions, in Geocomplexity and the Physics of Earthquakes, eds Rundle, J.B., Turcotte, D.L. & Klein, W., American Geophysical Union, Washington, DC, pp. 105-125.
36. Newman, W.I., Turcotte, D.L. & Gabrielov, A.M., 1995. Log-periodic behaviour of a hierarchical failure model with applications to precursory seismic activation, Phys. Rev., E 52, 4827-4835.
37. Ogata, Y., 1988. Statistical models for earthquake occurrence and residual analysis for point processes, J. Am. Stat. Assoc., 83, 9-27.
38. Ouillon, G., 1995. Application de l'Analyse Multifractale et de la Transformée en Ondelettes Anisotropes: la Caractérisation Géométrique Multi-Echelle des Réseaux de Failles et de Fractures, Editions du BRGM, Orleans.
39. Ouillon, G. & Sornette, D., 2000. The critical earthquake concept applied to mine rockbursts with time-to-failure analysis, Geophys. J, Int., 143, 454-468.
40. Ouillon, G. & Sornette, D., 2003. Nonlinear asymmetric elasticity to model preferential stress paths and earthquake interactions, Elsevier FGCS (Future Generation Computer Systems), e-print at http://arXiv.org/abs/physics/0304054.
41. Ouillon, G., Sornette, D. & Castaing, C., 1995. Organization of joints and faults from 1 cm to 100 km scales revealed by optimized anisotropic wavelet coefficient method and multifractal analysis, Nonlinear Process. Geophys., 2, 158-177.
42. Ouillon, G., Castaing, C. & Sornette, D., 1996. Hierarchical scaling of faulting, J. geophys. Res., 101, B 3, 5477-5487.
43. w 7.6 Manyi (Tibet) earthquake, Science, 286, N5438, 272-276.
44. Reynolds, P.J., Klein, W. & Stanley, H.E., 1977. Renormalization group for site and bond percolation, J. Phys. C: Solid State Phys., 10, L167-L172.
45. Roux, S. & Hild, F., 2002. On the relevance of mean field to continuum damage mechanics, Int. J. Fract., 116, 219-229.
46. Saleur, H., Sammis, C.G. & Sornette, D., 1996a. Renormalization group theory of earthquakes, Nonlinear Process. Geophys., 3, 102-109.
47. Saleur, H., Sammis, C.G. & Sornette, D., 1996b. Discrete scale invariance, complex fractal dimensions and log-periodic corrections in earthquakes, J. geophys. Res., 101, 17 661-17 677.
48. Sammis, S.G. & Sornette, D., 2002. Positive Feedback, Memory and the Predictability of Earthquakes, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 99, Suppl. 1, 2501-2508.
49. Smalley, R.F., Turcotte, D.L. & Sola, S.A., 1985. A renormalization group approach to the stick-slip behavior of faults, J. geophys. Res., 90, 1884-1900.
50. Sornette, D., 1989a. Elasticity and failure of a set of elements loaded in parallel, J. Phys. A: Math. Gen., 22, L243-L250.
51. Sornette, D., 1989b. Acoustic waves in random media: II Coherent effects and strong disorder regime, Acustica, 67, 251-265.
52. Sornette, D., 1989. Acoustic waves in random media: III Experimental situations, Acustica, 68, 15-25.
53. Sornette, D., 2000. Critical Phenomena in Natural Sciences, Chaos, Fractals, Self-organization and Disorder: Concepts and Tools, Springer Series in Synergetics, Springer, Heidelberg. (2004, 2nd enlarged edition)
54. Sornette, D. & Pisarenko, V.F., 2003. Fractal plate tectonics, Geophys. Res. Lett., 30, 1105, doi:10.1029/2002GL015043.
55. Sornette, D. & Sammis, C.G., 1995. Complex critical exponents from renormalization group theory of earthquakes: implications for earthquake predictions, J. Physique 1, 5, 607-619.
56. Sornette, A. & Sornette, D., 1990. Earthquake rupture as a critical point: consequences for telluric precursors, Tectonophysics, 179, 327-334.
57. Souillard, B., 1987. Waves and electrons in non-homogeneous media, in Chance and Matter, eds Soulettie, J., Vannimenus, J. & Stora, R., Amsterdam, Elsevier, pp. 305-382.
58. Sykes, L.R. & Jaumé, S., 1990. Seismic activity on neighboring faults as a long-term precursor to large earthquakes in the San Francisco Bay Area, Nature, 348, 595-599.
59. Vere-Jones, D., 1977. Statistical theories of crack propagation, Math. Geol., 9, 455-481.
60. Voight, B., 1988. A method for prediction of volcanic eruptions, Nature, 332, 125-130.
61. Voight, B., 1989. A relation to describe rate-dependent material failure, Science, 243, 200-203.
62. Weatherly, D., Mora, P. & Xia, M., 2002. Long-range automaton models of earthquakes: power law accelerations, correlation evolution and mode switching, Pure. appl. Geophys., 159, 2469-2490.
63. Wells, D.L. & Coppersmith, K.J., 1994. New empirical relationships among magnitude, rupture length, rupture width, rupture area, and surface displacement, Bull. seism. Soc. Am., 84, 974-1002.
64. Wyss, M., 1997. CASE 23-nomination of precursory seismic quiescence as a significant precursor, Pure appl. Geophys., 149, 79-113.
65. Zoller, G. & Hainzl, S., 2001. Detecting premonitory seismicity patterns based on critical point dynamics, Natural Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 1, 93-98.
66. Zoller, G. & Hainzl, S., 2002. A systematic spatiotemporal test of the critical point hypothesis for large earthquakes, Geophys. Res. Lett., 29, doi:10.1029/2002GL014856.
67. Zoller, G., Hainzl, S. & Kurths, J., 2001. Observation of growing correlation length as an indicator for critical point behavior prior to large earthquakes, J. geophys. Res., 106, 2167-2176.